Justin Blackmon

[tazinib1]

Blackmon is, by far, the best WR prospect in the draft. Would I give him an AJ Green status? Or even a J.Jones grade? That might be pushing it but he should go top 3 in all rookie drafts in 2012. I won't get one of those juicy picks so I'm focusing my attention on the next best WR.

Edited January 3, 2012 by tazinib1

[rajncajn]

IIRC, there were no real immediate impact guys on defense available at those picks that would have helped on this run. To me, it would have been conceding that they won't be ready to compete for a Superbowl until after Tony G retires (and maybe not even then as Roddy eventually slows down too).

 

Jimmy Smith went to Baltimore at Atlanta's 27th pick & Jabaal Sheard at 37... not to mention a couple of other good DEs in between.

 

Cleveland took Greg little with Atlanta's 59th pick, Randall Cobb went a few picks later. Mason Foster, Nate Irving & Martez Wilson were still on the board there defensively.

 

I'm sure I'm missing a few, but to say there were no impact players there is just not true.

 

That's also component #2. Roddy is getting towards the tail-end of his career, and Tony G should be retired by now if he wasn't in such incredible shape. So if things don't turn out on this run (and even if they do), then you've got a clear heir apparent to not skip a beat on offense as these guys fade into the sunset.

I look at it a little differently... White may be at the tail end, but he's likely got at least 3 more good years in him. That gives the Falcons plenty of time to mine the draft and/or FA for a replacement and in fact, likely would have ended up with a player who could be in his caliber within the next few years with their 59th pick (see above). Now, by blowing all their picks on Julio, how are they to replace Gonzalez when he retires or find a compliment to Julio when Roddy is done? Not to mention, if you think Ryan has not yet hit his prime, then you're left searching for their replacements when ryan should be playing his best ball.

A young corner rated below Amukawhatever would not have immediately fixed the biggest weakness of the secondary (and wouldn't have improved that weakness that much when Grimes and Sanders are healthy), and the Falcons would struggle just the same to keep up with high-scoring offenses like the Packers and Saints (who continue to be the teams to beat). With the league transforming more and more into a passing-oriented league, the Falcons have just ensured that they'll have a top WR in the offense for years to come, to grow along with Ryan and help their playoff chances. I certainly don't think that adding the explosiveness that was dead last last year is going to hurt.

Take a look at what the top teams are stocking up on right now in the draft. The Saints have been picking up CBs left & right and digging much deeper for WRs. I know you're going to disagree, but I just don't think Ryan has any more growing to do. I think you've seen the best he has to offer. That's not particularly a bad thing, but if you're expecting him to put up numbers like Rodgers, Brady, Brees or Manning then you're going to continue to see a lot more of what you have this season... Backing into the playoffs, not sure what your identity is & not having the defense to hold back the more potent offenses in the league.

[rajncajn]

Back to how incredible Blackmon is...

 

Sorry for derailing the thread.

[DMD]

I have watched Blackmon play many times this year. He is "just" 6-1 but plays taller - he can leap and be the one of three guys coming down with the ball. Every defense knew it was going to be him who would be their biggest problem and he really never got shut down and came up biggest when they needed him most. His YAC had to be high because his long scores were rarely catching a bomb but usually taking one over the middle and then breaking tackles and open field running to score. I am not sure how fast he is in the 40 but he plays plenty fast. I do not recall seeing him ever caught unless the defender had the better angle.

 

I think he'll be a very good NFL prospect depending too on where he goes and who his QB will be. Dez Bryant came from the same program too and his best year stats:

 

Bryant 87-1480-19

Blackmon 121-1522-18

 

But Bryant only had one good year and left. Blackmon as a SOPH had 111-1782-20, so for the last two years he has caught 232 passes and scored 38 times. Those are from 12 or 13 game seasons too.

 

What he does in the pro's is contingent on many things but he is worth the risk of drafting to be sure.

[muck]

Blackmon 121-1522-18

 

Blackmon as a SOPH had 111-1782-20, so for the last two years he has caught 232 passes and scored 38 times. Those are from 12 or 13 game seasons too.

 

What he does in the pro's is contingent on many things but he is worth the risk of drafting to be sure.

 

Fixed.

 

And, you're telling me he's already peaked and only getting worse from here on out.

 

Receptions up

Yards down

Yards / reception down

TDs down

TD % down

Edited January 3, 2012 by muck

[STL Fan]

Kalil?

I don't think so. The Rams have a buttload of money in the o-line already and they are gonna go with a combination of hoping those guys get healthy and mature, and hopefully finding some value in the later rounds on the O-line. This team need playmakers. Blackmon is one. I agree with Seahawks that the ideal would be to trade down a couple spots (Cleveland?) and get some picks and still get our guy. But if no one bites, take him at 2 and feel good about it.

[tazinib1]

I don't think so. The Rams have a buttload of money in the o-line already and they are gonna go with a combination of hoping those guys get healthy and mature, and hopefully finding some value in the later rounds on the O-line. This team need playmakers. Blackmon is one. I agree with Seahawks that the ideal would be to trade down a couple spots (Cleveland?) and get some picks and still get our guy. But if no one bites, take him at 2 and feel good about it.

 

No way I take Blackmon with the #2 pick. Trade down and get Riley Reiff and a 2nd or 3rd. Both guys are 6'6 and appx 300lbs. Not much difference IMO.

[rattsass]

I really like Blackmon. Aside from his beastly performances on the field, his humanitarian slant off the field, he can be an emotional leader for a team as he displayed last night. I don't know if I would rate him even with Julio Jones, but he is close, and I was all over Julio last year. He is definitely going to change an NFL roster and fantasy rosters for the better. Great prospect.

[STL Fan]

No way I take Blackmon with the #2 pick. Trade down and get Riley Reiff and a 2nd or 3rd. Both guys are 6'6 and appx 300lbs. Not much difference IMO.

Why? If he's a good pick at 6 or 7, and you need an impact receiver, why would he not be a good pick at 2? Because Mel Kiper says he's not a good "value" there? If he's the concensus best receiver, you take him with your first pick if that's what you need.

[piratesownninjas]

Blackmon is, by far, the best WR prospect in the draft. Would I give him an AJ Green status? Or even a J.Jones grade?

Not even close to Green or Julio Jones to me. Blackmon is probably the best WR in this draft. Green and Jones are two of the top 4 WR prospects in the past decade.

[piratesownninjas]

I don't think so. The Rams have a buttload of money in the o-line already and they are gonna go with a combination of hoping those guys get healthy and mature, and hopefully finding some value in the later rounds on the O-line. This team need playmakers. Blackmon is one. I agree with Seahawks that the ideal would be to trade down a couple spots (Cleveland?) and get some picks and still get our guy. But if no one bites, take him at 2 and feel good about it.

A buttload of money in an o line, but you have to view Jason Smith as a sunk cost. They've spent a lot in terms of picks+$ to get the line help, but it hasn't shown up on the field. Kalil can protect the franchise, and keep him on the field. Give me a franchise left tackle over a WR any day.

[piratesownninjas]

No way I take Blackmon with the #2 pick. Trade down and get Riley Reiff and a 2nd or 3rd. Both guys are 6'6 and appx 300lbs. Not much difference IMO.

So you won't be trading up to 1.3 in FDSB for Blackmon?

[tazinib1]

So you won't be trading up to 1.3 in FDSB for Blackmon?

 

Not a chance in hell.

[tazinib1]

Why? If he's a good pick at 6 or 7, and you need an impact receiver, why would he not be a good pick at 2? Because Mel Kiper says he's not a good "value" there? If he's the concensus best receiver, you take him with your first pick if that's what you need.

 

 

For what its worth..I think Keiper is an idiot .An over the hill draftnick that needs a haircut.

[Sugar Magnolia]

Watching the bowl games, Blackmon impressed me as far as a dynasty pick for me. Michael Floyd went down a few notches, IMO.

[coordi88]

I thought the exact same thing about Rashaun Woods about 8 years ago...

 

i never saw much in woods... blackmon is a whole nother beast. he is calvin-esque in his range despite being much smaller. he has an ability to adjust seemingly in air, and his hands are padded velvet pillows in silken cases. i could go on about his physique but im getting distracted.

[detlef]

I don't think anyone is saying that Julio isn't a great pick, but the Falcons gave up WAY too much for a player who wasn't a need. All they needed was a great complimentary WR to White & look at how well all the WRs that went after him did this season. Greg Little, Torrey Smith, Hankerson, Titus Young, Randall Cobb, Denarius Moore... Any one of these guys would have suited that role and the Falcons wouldn't have had to give up jack to get them. Sure Jones will be a great player and next to White forms an unbelievable tandem. But you have to admit, the Falcons ignored what was working for them on offense & instead of fixing the problem (defense), they chose to blow their retirement on a Ferrari.

I don't think any of those WRs you mentioned are close to Jones. Perhaps they saw a guy who was actually so impressive that White would ultimately be a compliment to him. And let's not pretend that Jones hasn't impressed. In an offense that included Gonzales, White, and Turner, Jones may have already emerged as the #1 threat.

 

I would wager the Falcons would consider themselves very, very lucky to land a player like Jones in any of the 5 picks they gave away.

[Bronco Billy]

No way I take Blackmon with the #2 pick. Trade down and get Riley Reiff and a 2nd or 3rd. Both guys are 6'6 and appx 300lbs. Not much difference IMO.

 

6'-6" 300 lb? Now THAT'S my kind of WR.

 

:sportswood:

[Bronco Billy]

i never saw much in woods... blackmon is a whole nother beast. he is calvin-esque in his range despite being much smaller. he has an ability to adjust seemingly in air, and his hands are padded velvet pillows in silken cases. i could go on about his physique but im getting distracted.

 

Woods was flat out uncoverable at OSU and put up numbers there every bit as eye-popping as Blackmon has.

[detlef]

6'-6" 300 lb? Now THAT'S my kind of WR.

 

:sportswood:

Doesn't stretch the field much, but sure is a match-up issue for a 190 lb CB.

[DMD]

Woods was flat out uncoverable at OSU and put up numbers there every bit as eye-popping as Blackmon has.

 

You guys have some incredible memories.

 

Here is your comparatives:

 

Rashaun Woods

 

2000 - 29-329-0 (team record 3-8)

2001 - 80-1023-10 (team record 4-7)

2002 - 107-1695-17 (team record 8-5)

2003 - 77-1367-15 (team record 9-4)

 

293-4414-42

 

Justin Blackmon

 

2009 - 20-260-2 (team record 9-4)

2010 - 111-1782-20 (team record 11-2)

2011 - 113-1336-15 (team record 12-1)

 

244-3378-37

 

I can sort of see comparable here but we could probably find a ton of highly successful AND huge flops that had similar numbers to both. I do like that Blackmon had his two monster seasons while OSU was a national contender and was the major reason why the team was winning so many games versus playing in seasons with more losses which would naturally have OSU passing heavily to catch up and maybe getting more trash yards and catches that way.

 

Woods was also drafted with the 1.31 pick that year so he was not nearly so desired by NFL teams as what Blackmon should be.

[Bronco Billy]

Blackmon may be all that, but I guess the point I'm trying to make is that WRs are so damned difficult to project when it comes to success. We've seen some real physical specimens who have been college uber-studs who have fallen flat on their faces in the NFL - with little to no rationale why until it was too late. Woods came immediately to mind because he comes from the same school Blackmon does and had Blackmon type success when he played, but there are lots of other examples.

 

Just really a difficult position to get to overly jacked up about even when a Blackmon does appear on the scene

[stevegrab]

A buttload of money in an o line, but you have to view Jason Smith as a sunk cost. They've spent a lot in terms of picks+$ to get the line help, but it hasn't shown up on the field. Kalil can protect the franchise, and keep him on the field. Give me a franchise left tackle over a WR any day.

 

 

Exactly, in the Browns 13 year histotry since returning to the NFL their best first round pick was Joe Thomas, who's been to the Pro Bowl every year since he was drafted. Skill players are flashy and may draw fans, but trench players (OL especially but DL too, the non flashy interior types, not sack monsters) can really make a franchise.

[muck]

Exactly, in the Browns 13 year histotry since returning to the NFL their best first round pick was Joe Thomas, who's been to the Pro Bowl every year since he was drafted. Skill players are flashy and may draw fans, but trench players (OL especially but DL too, the non flashy interior types, not sack monsters) can really make a franchise.

 

Are you the reincarnation of my dead grandmother?

 

She'd always tell me around draft time some version of "The Chiefs better draft the fat guy!"

 

Unfortunately, they didn't listen very often, and when they did, they oftentimes picked the wrong one.

[stevegrab]

Are you the reincarnation of my dead grandmother?

 

She'd always tell me around draft time some version of "The Chiefs better draft the fat guy!"

 

Unfortunately, they didn't listen very often, and when they did, they oftentimes picked the wrong one.

 

No, I'm pretty sure I'm not your dead grandmother reincarnated. I don't really believe in that stuff, but maybe she did and its all that matters.

 

Seriously I've seen so many flashy guys drafted that were touted by one expert or another as can't miss prospects. And then flopped and next year we were reaching to replace them and drafting less flashy less can't miss guys that flopped more. Courtney Brown, Gerrard Warren, Tim Couch, Wille "Weedhead" Green, Braylon "one good year" Edwards, Kellen 'I'm an idiot on a motorcycle" Winslow Jr., and on and on.

 

The best two recent picks on offense are lineman, Thomas and Mack ©. Some good DB picks a few years ago (Ward & Haden) and now 2 good D picks on the line last year. I'm not against skill players, just trust them less in the top rounds were more seem to miss (than OL or def picks).