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Tford's annual mock draft


Tford
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Alright draftniks, your time is coming soon. Last year was a decent year for prognostication for yours truly, I was able to call Cam Newton going 1.01 before the combine but honestly I was a shotgun scatter. That's what makes this fun I suppose. Anyways, here's my call for the 2012 draft if it went today.

 

1) Indianapolis Colts - Andrew Luck QB Stanford

 

I really don't see any scenario where this doesn't happen. Luck is the consensus best player available. Manning is 35 years old and this year proved that the Colts do not have a decent heir apparent on the team. And although the team has some contract issues, the 1.01 pick is manageable to work around. I can see Manning playing ahead of Luck for two years a la Favre-Rodgers. No brainer pick here.

 

 

2) Cleveland Browns (from St. Louis) - Robert Griffin III QB Baylor

 

I see RG3 being head-and-shoulders better than any other player not named Luck. Normally I wouldn't call a trade in a first mock but this one makes too much sense. Either Washington or Cleveland makes a lot of sense but the Browns moreso because Cleveland has the ammo to make this move with Atlanta's first round pick from the Julio Jones trade. Oddly enough, the pick value works out that Cleveland's two firsts are comparable to St. Louis' 1.02 so that's the move I'm going with.

 

 

3) Minnesota Vikings - Matt Kalil OT USC

 

Shaping up to be a boring draft so far. Unless St. Louis surprises everyone and takes Kalil at 1.02, I really don't see Minnesota going anywhere else. Doesn't really matter who is taking snaps for the Vikings, he won't be effective if he is running for his life. If Kalil is gone, Minnesota probably goes with Blackmon or trades the pick themselves.

 

4) St. Louis Rams (from Cleveland) - Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State

 

The ideal spot for the Rams to end up because they end up with either Matt Kalil or Justin Blackmon, both big needs. Blackmon is easily to the top WR available in the draft and the Rams know they need a playmaker to help Sam Bradford keep this offense on schedule.

 

5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Trent Richardson RB Alabama

 

As a LeGarrette Blount owner, I'd rather this not happen but the Bucs don't owe Blount much by way of a new contract after this year and really don't have much for runningback depth. I can see a premiere talent like Richardson pulling their attention over other needs on defense.

 

 

6) Washington Redskins - Luke Kuechly ILB Boston College

 

This is the first pick where I think you could see something off the wall. The Redskins needs are plentiful but the Shanahans pride themselves on being able to find skill positions in the later rounds. They need a quarterback and I could see this pick shopped for Peyton Manning. Matt Flynn is available. I have even seen Ryan Tannehill mocked to this pick. All in all, I think Shanahan finds a way to get a quarterback without spending his first and if that's the case, I like this pick going to the defense. London Fletcher has been playing linebacker since I was in middle school and Rocky McIntosh is expected to leave town. Kuechly can be a leader on defense.

 

 

7) Jacksonville Jaguars - Michael Floyd WR Notre Dame

 

Unless Jacksonville figures out some way to sign two decent WRs in FA, I don't see how the Jaguars don't draft Floyd. Floyd is a consistent, big target but may lack some high-end speed. But honestly, that probably doesn't matter much that the deep routes aren't the priority in Jacksonville that they are in other offenses.

 

 

8) Miami Dolphins - Riley Reiff OT Iowa

 

Not the flashy pick that their owner wants but Miami needs help on the offensive line. The entire right side of their line is weak at best. Reiff is a quality talent that will go in the top 10.

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9) Carolina Panthers - Morris Claiborne CB LSU

 

Carolina plays in a division with 3 quality QBs and frequently got into shootouts last year. QB Cam Newton was able to create huge improvement on the offense, the defense now need help against the pass.

 

 

10) Buffalo Bills - Jonathan Martin OT Stanford

 

The Bills need two things; help rushing the passer and help protecting their own. At the 1.10 pick, I don't think there's a rush OLB that makes sense for the Bills. I think a tackle here and a 3-4 OLB in round 2 makes sense for them.

 

 

11) Kansas City Chiefs - David DeCastro G Stanford

 

More offensive help for a team that struggles on offense. DeCastro will be an anchor for a team that is used to having quality guard play.

 

12) Seattle Seahawks - Quentin Coples DE North Carolina

 

The Seahawks are not a team that was able to generate pressure on the QB last year. Coples is projected to be one of the better 4-3 DEs in the draft and should prove to be a quality addition opposite Chris Clemons.

 

 

13) Arizona Cardinals - Dre Kirkpatrick CB Alabama

 

The Cardinals corners past Patrick Peterson are some of the worst in the NFL. AJ Jefferson should not be a starting CB in the NFL. Kirkpatrick is a quality enough talent to step in and swing for an ailing Cardinals secondary but his recent drug arrest may cause him to slide.

 

 

14) Dallas Cowboys - Devon Still 3-4 DE Penn State

 

Kenyon Coleman can't last forever despite Rob Ryan's wishes. 3-4 DE was a need last year and remains a need this year. Still would be a week 1 if he goes to the Cowboys.

 

15) Philadelphia Eagles - Donta Hightower ILB Alabama

 

Hightower is Jeremiah Trotter version 2.0. A quality run-stuffer and decent cover LB on a team whose LBs are poor at best. Hightower is the best ILB available and likely high on the Eagles board.

 

 

16) New York Jets - Courtney Upshaw 3-4 OLB Alabama

 

Geez there's lots of Alabama players going early in this mock. Upshaw is shaping up to be the highest rated 3-4 rush OLB available and that's a position that the Jets could use some help.

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I would really love to see the Browns draft Kalil. The right side of their line was downright awful this year. They HAVE to shore that up and this kid is the Joe Thomas of this draft.

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2) Cleveland Browns (from St. Louis) - Robert Griffin III QB Baylor

 

I see RG3 being head-and-shoulders better than any other player not named Luck. Normally I wouldn't call a trade in a first mock but this one makes too much sense.

No IMO it doesn't make any sense. Griffith will be there at 1.04.

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Nice work but I see no way Richardson or Floyd are drafted in the top 10. They may be good fantasy players some day but they are not going top 10 in the NFL.

 

The RB value in today's NFL forces them down even though he is a solid talent. I am sure we will see lots of Mocks with Richardson going that high but even with the lower price points of rookies I would be stunned if a RB goes that high. Tampa has a terrible defense and will/should go that direction. Look for a DB with that pick, Clairborne or Kirpatrick. These are high impact players that will allow safeties to help shore up their awful run support. I could see them going Kuechley but probably won't due to positional value of MLB's.

 

Floyd is simply not talented enough to be a top tier pick. Floyd may start getting looks around the Bears pick but doubt he even goes that high.

 

I also don't think the Chiefs take a guard that high. They will probably go DT . Guards simply do not go that high due to positional value. I do think he is a great prospect and a solid pick but if a reach is made on this position it will probably be a team like the Cowboys at 14. Still too high for Guards IMO but he is a very good player.

 

Could be wrong but if those 3 go where you say then you will be the greatest Mock Drafter ever.

Edited by Ice1
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No IMO it doesn't make any sense. Griffith will be there at 1.04.

 

Don't think so. Someone will move into the 2 spot to take him IMO. I expect several teams to make a play for that pick. Redskins are a very high probability but the Browns have the firepower and this kid can really play.

 

Huge upside with an unbelievable release to match his overall athletic ability.

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Don't think so. Someone will move into the 2 spot to take him IMO. I expect several teams to make a play for that pick. Redskins are a very high probability but the Browns have the firepower and this kid can really play.

 

Huge upside with an unbelievable release to match his overall athletic ability.

Yeah, with the new rookie wage scale deal, teams can afford to move up and make things happen, even for the usually-pricey QB.

 

GriffIN (not GriffITH) also has it between the ears and is probably just as likely to end up arrested as Andrew Luck.

 

This draft is loaded with talent at pretty much every position (except TE, off the top of my head).

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I like your top 8 with one exception, RB Richardson. I don;t see any team taking RB that early. With RB by commitee being the trend, there is no need to waste a 5th pverall pick on a RB.

 

As for the next picks, I do not see AZ spending two top 15 picks in back to back years on the CB position, but maybe that is the Cowboy fan in me hoping that we get the draft's best corner. Dallas has so many needs on defense I am sure that they will go with a defensive player.

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I also disagree about the Bucs. They could use a RB, but that pick is too high, and they need LB's way too badly.

 

I also don't agree that the Seahawks take DE at 12, unless they don't re-sign Red Bryant. They need a situational pass-rusher. They already have two starters at DE. I can't see them using the 12th overall pick on a situational player that will never start. I'd like to see them get a starter with that pick. It could happen, they could go the Giants route, and they obviously are desperate for a pass-rush, but I'm fairly certain they're going to take a OLB, DT or QB.

Edited by Seahawks21
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Griffin is going to SOMEBODY at 1.02. I agree that it is most likely the Browns, but that depends on what Holmgren thinks of Griffin. Washington and Miami could also get into the conversation. If it isn't Cleveland that jumps, somebody else is going to try to jump in front of Cleveland, knowing they would take him.

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no way claiborne makes it to #9. the bucs would take him at #5 if he's there and no way he makes it past the dolphins at #8. i know we need a o line help, but he's way too good to almost drop out of the top 10. richardson is a beast, but i could see him drop out of the top 10 just because of the teams that are drafting there. browns and bucs both need him, but both have bigger needs. would b a huge surprise to have richardson drop to teh teens but the nfl exec's always surprise us in round 1.

 

i agree with the trade up to #2 for rg3. the drop off at qb after him is SIGNIFICANT. i just hope its the browns or redskins that trade up for him and not the dolphins. we have too many needs to give up our high picks for one guy.....especially with flynn on the market and his coach being with us now. hoping that gives us a leg up on the competition to land him.

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no way claiborne makes it to #9. the bucs would take him at #5 if he's there and no way he makes it past the dolphins at #8. i know we need a o line help, but he's way too good to almost drop out of the top 10.

 

This. Claiborne is a beast.

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....especially with flynn on the market and his coach being with us now. hoping that gives us a leg up on the competition to land him.

 

My take is this.

 

The Packers will sign Finley to a long term contract then Franchise tag Flynn. I still think he ends up with Miami but it will be as a result of a trade.

 

Flynn would easily command a top 10 pick in this draft or a 2nd this year and a 1st next season and the Packers would be very foolish to let him walk without compensation. Flynn will command a 50-60 million dollar type contract so risking 14 million is nothing given he would be traded to a team that will negotiate a long term deal anyway.

 

In my view, he is way better Franchise tag than Finley. Miami may still get him but they will pay a high pick for the privilege.

Edited by Ice1
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My take is this.

 

The Packers will sign Finley to a long term contract then Franchise tag Flynn. I still think he ends up with Miami but it will be as a result of a trade.

 

Flynn would easily command a top 10 pick in this draft or a 2nd this year and a 1st next season and the Packers would be very foolish to let him walk without compensation. Flynn will command a 50-60 million dollar type contract so risking 14 million is nothing given he would be traded to a team that will negotiate a long term deal anyway.

 

In my view, he is way better Franchise tag than Finley. Miami may still get him but they will pay a high pick for the privilege.

I would prefer this too, but I doubt the Packers would get that much in return. Was thinking more of a Cassell situation where he played almost a whole season and the Pats got a 2nd in a similar franchise-tag-and-trade situation.

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I would prefer this too, but I doubt the Packers would get that much in return. Was thinking more of a Cassell situation where he played almost a whole season and the Pats got a 2nd in a similar franchise-tag-and-trade situation.

 

Could be, but I think Flynn will command a higher value given the situation and his recent record setting performance. He could move into to Miami already knowing the offensive scheme cold.

 

There are several teams with considerable need at QB which should drive up the market over Cassell.

 

He was steal draft pick by the Packers in the 7th round and has improved considerably. Prior to that last game his next best may have been his national championship game in college when he threw for 4 TD's in a victory over Ohio State.

 

I would do the deal even if it only nets a 2nd rounder but think he could squeeze out a 1st round value even if the Packers give back a later pick.

 

They are going to have to pay Finley anyway if they choose to keep him so Tagging Flynn seems to make a lot of sense. He certainly looks the part of an NFL QB with serious upside. He blew by the 2nd rounder on the depth chart which says something as to his ability.

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17) Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland) - Janoris Jenkins CB North Alabama

 

A bit of a head case, comes complete with plenty of off-the-field issues. Perfect fit for the Bengals? Leon Hall is coming off of a season-ending injury and is a free agent. Jonathan Joseph left for Houston last year. Teams can quickly go from riches to rags at a certain position in the NFL and the Bengals' cornerback situation is a good example of this.

 

 

18) San Diego Chargers - Whitney Mercilus 3-4 OLB Illinois

 

I think San Diego can justify a tackle here but past the top three guys, the only guy I like is Mike Adams. A tackle will probably go in a reach or two here and there but the Chargers have other holes to fill. Mercilus hopes to succeed where Larry English has failed.

 

 

19) Chicago Bears - Alshon Jeffrey WR South Carolina

 

It's hard not call this pick as the Bears trying to find Jay Cutler another Brandon Marshall. After all, Jeffrey's body type is remarkably similar to Marshall's. Personally, I don't think that Jeffrey is as physical as Marshall is but he certainly is a talent for a team that needs some at the wide receiver position.

 

 

20) Tennessee Titans - Peter Konz C Wisconsin

 

Have a look at the Tennessee Titans this year versus CJ's 2k year. The interior line play is horrible. Konz, Cordy Glenn or a sliding David DeCastro all make sense here.

 

 

21) Cincinnati Bengals - Lamar Miller RB Miami

 

I know I'm catching some grief for the Richardson top 5 pick but I'm calling a second RB in the first round to the Bengals. Benson is a 29 year old free agent with multiple off-the-field issues that are amounting to suspensions and Bernard Scott has proved he is little more than a reliable change-of-pace. Miller gives Cincinnati the young runningback to pair with their young QB and WR.

 

 

22) St. Louis Rams (from Atlanta through Cleveland) - Alfonso Dennard CB Nebraska

 

I can't remember the numbers but I know that the amount of CBs on St. Louis was horrendous and that was a weak unit to begin with. The Rams would be well served to bolster their CB ranks. Dennard fits the bill later in the first round.

 

23) Detroit Lions - Mike Adams OT Ohio State

 

I don't really like this pick because I see Detroit finding a way to draft a defensive back to help them win the shootouts that they seemed to find themselves in a lot last year. That said, Detroit was able to see a return on their investment in Matthew Stafford with him making it through the season without a major injury. The Lions would do well in the draft to acquire players to help keep their quarterback producing.

 

 

24) Pittsburgh Steelers - Jerel Worthy 3-4 DE Michigan State

 

The big question for the Steelers this offseason will be on the defensive line. Casey Hampton is due a big bonus and is breaking down. Ziggy Hood is young but stalwarts Aaron Smith and Brett Keisel are not. Pittsburgh needs a big boost to their defensive front. I think Worthy slots in as a 3-4 DE because he is about 25 pounds lighter than I think the Steelers want their nose tackle to be. That said, he is a welcome upgrade to unit that is badly declining.

Edited by Tford
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For the Jets, the biggest need on defense is actually at safety, not the pass rush (OLB or 3-4 DE). Particularly if the top 3 OT's are gone, Barron is almost a shoe-in for the Jets at 16. Jim Leonard has had his season ended two years in a row now with injury and there isn't anything behind him now on the roster.

 

I see the biggest need on the Jets as Safety and ORT. They can't run the ball to the right anymore, and the Jets are sure to address that need at some point in the draft, either the first or second round unless they can find an FA... Woody was an FA and he worked out well for a couple of years. Ducasse appears to be a bust.

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Don't think so. Someone will move into the 2 spot to take him IMO. I expect several teams to make a play for that pick. Redskins are a very high probability but the Browns have the firepower and this kid can really play.

Highly doubtful as the asking price will be too high. Skins are realistically the only player there, due to the owner as much as the QB need. Can't see that CLE fries another #1 just to move up 2 spots, not even for that guy. If they do they are stupid IMO. Too many needs elsewhere.

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