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Flynn a Seahawk


keggerz
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Guess we will find out soon if he's any good or if he's the next Kevin Kolb.

 

Couldn't be further from Kevin Kolb. Smart guy with pocket presence.

 

And once again, the Dolphins miss out on option 1, and option 2, leaving them with what's left. If I was Miami I'd realize that I was looked at as a joke, if I was Philbin I would be pissed at Ross for screwing the pooch this bad.

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I like this for him and for the seahawks. It's an offense that while struggling last year has some nice pieces in place, a great home field advantage, and a very solid defense. Shows some smarts by the kid picking the Seahawks over Miami IMHO.

 

Now if Sidney Rice could play 12 out of 16 games injury free they'd really have something going....then again the odds on that are about the same as Taz posting coherently 12 out of 16 posts, but you gotta dream!

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I like this for him and for the seahawks. It's an offense that while struggling last year has some nice pieces in place, a great home field advantage, and a very solid defense. Shows some smarts by the kid picking the Seahawks over Miami IMHO.

 

Now if Sidney Rice could play 12 out of 16 games injury free they'd really have something going....then again the odds on that are about the same as Taz posting coherently 12 out of 16 posts, but you gotta dream!

 

:lol:

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it worked last time they traded for Green Bay's backup.

 

 

Good point. I like this as it's only 10 Mill guaranteed so if he is the new Kevin Klob, it's not going to kill them down the road. Should also be an immediate upgrade over TJax with loads more potential.

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I agree that he is a good QB. Above average - waiting to see. A real big improvement over TJax and Whitehurst. Neither of these two could get it together. Seattle often won inspite of TJax or Whitehurst.

 

Now for Rice to stay healthy.

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And once again, the Dolphins miss out on option 1, and option 2, leaving them with what's left. If I was Miami I'd realize that I was looked at as a joke, if I was Philbin I would be pissed at Ross for screwing the pooch this bad.

 

 

I can't figure out MIA either. They want to be serious players in the Manning sweepstakes, but when they get shut out of it they can't manage an offer like this for a guy who by all accounts wanted to start for them and who knows their HC's system inside-out? Instead they try to lowball Flynn, if releases are to be believed? This could be the AFC's answer to Daniel Snyder.

Edited by Bronco Billy
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The base value of Matt Flynn's three-year contract in Seattle is only $19 million, with $10 million guaranteed.

 

The initial Flynn report claimed he received a three-year, $26 million deal. Per the Milwaukee-Journal Sentinel, however, Flynn's base contract is just $19 million with $5 million more available through incentives. It appears the remaining $2 million could be had via "unlikely to be earned" incentives.

 

 

Source: Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

Mar 18 - 6:15 PM

 

 

 

According to the Denver Post, the Dolphins are currently negotiating a contract with free agent Alex Smith that would pay him $8 million annually.

 

The Dolphins are so desperate, after losing out on Peyton Manning and Matt Flynn, that they're now willing to significantly overpay a borderline NFL starter at near the level of franchise quarterback money.

 

 

Source: Denver Post

Mar 18 - 8:00 PM

 

 

 

:shakinghead:

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Given that it's not like Seattle backed up an armored truck to Flynn's garage, it doesn't seem like Miami was "out bid". Don't you think that might mean that Philbin himself was not 100% sold on the kid? Again, given how relatively little Miami would have needed to pony up, wouldn't they have gotten their new HC his QB if he really wanted him?

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Given that it's not like Seattle backed up an armored truck to Flynn's garage, it doesn't seem like Miami was "out bid". Don't you think that might mean that Philbin himself was not 100% sold on the kid? Again, given how relatively little Miami would have needed to pony up, wouldn't they have gotten their new HC his QB if he really wanted him?

 

 

As I stated earlier, reports out of MIA were that they were lowballing Flynn because of his desire to play in MIA - not even offering starter's money.

 

And FWIW - for that kind of money I would have loved to see DEN make a play on Flynn and send Tebow somewhere for a 3rd rounder.

Edited by Bronco Billy
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Interesting article in ESPN today on Flynn by KC Joyner (in the Insider Section) - paints the contrarian picture about Flynn's signing...I've pasted below. My critique of KC's argument is that while criticizing people that like Flynn for the small data set of play he's provided, he uses that same small data set to set up the potential challenges Flynn has.

 

The big issue in analyzing the Seattle Seahawks' signing of Matt Flynn to a three-year, $26 million contract is to find out exactly how much he can improve the Hawks' offense.

Some may think his addition will be a huge upgrade because of how well Flynn played against Detroit in Week 17 last year, but as was noted in a recent Insider article, his performance in that game has to be taken with more than a grain of salt.

Quoting the article:


  • "As remarkable as his record-setting numbers in that game were, it's just as important to note that Flynn went 13-for-17 for 258 yards and four touchdowns on passes thrown at Alphonso Smith, Chris Harris and Chris Houston.

 


  • "Context matters. Smith is so bad in coverage that Denver gave up on him after only one season, despite him being their top second-round pick in the 2009 NFL draft. Harris' history is no better, as his mediocre skills are a big part of why the Lions were his third NFL team in three years. While Houston has a much stronger metric history than those two, he was slowed by an injury that didn't show up until a few days before the Green Bay game.

 


  • "In other words, the correct way to view Flynn's record-setting game is to say that it proves he can post dominant numbers if he is surrounded by very talented pass-catchers and faces a weak and injury-riddled secondary at home."

 

Grading Flynn on this performance alone might be akin to grading Tarvaris Jackson, Seattle's starting quarterback for most of the 2011 season, by his 13-for-16 for 190 yards and one touchdown performance against the Eagles in Week 13. Those numbers are great but they represent only one game.

The only other sampling at the NFL level we have of Flynn is the two-game stint he played during the 2010 season when Aaron Rodgers was hurt.

Flynn's overall numbers in those games were so-so: 39-for-63 for 428 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. That equates to an 84.6 passer rating, or slightly above the 82.2 league average for that season (according to pro-football-reference.com).

But check out Flynn's metrics by route depth in those contests:

 

 

Matt Flynn's 2010 season stats vs. Detroit, New England

Route Depth Comp Att Yds TD Int Pen Pen Yds YPA Bdec Bdec % Short (1-10 yards) 33 41 262 2 1 2 4 6.2 0 0.0% Medium (11-19 yards) 4 9 68 0 1 0 0 7.6 1 11.1% Deep (20-29 yards) 2 6 98 1 0 0 0 16.3 1 16.7% Bomb (30+ yards) 0 3 0 0 0 1 5 1.3 1 25.0% Other (throwaways, etc.) 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0.0% Total 39 63 428 3 2 3 9 6.5 3 4.5% Vertical (11+ yards) 6 18 166 1 1 1 5 9.0 3 15.8% Stretch Vertical (20+ yards) 2 9 98 1 0 1 5 10.3 2 20.0%

The yards per attempt (YPA) totals are mediocre or worse at every depth level and the 9.0 vertical yards per attempt (VYPA) is especially poor.

Even more disturbing is the 4.5 percent bad decision rate (BDR). BDR measures how often a quarterback makes a mental error that leads either to a turnover or a near turnover such as a dropped interception.

A BDR of 3 percent is considered to be unacceptable -- and Flynn was 50 percent higher than that in these contests.

Despite the small sample size, those numbers give some perspective as to where Flynn could end up. But how do Flynn's numbers compare with the totals posted by Jackson last season?

Jackson tallied a 9.3 VYPA and had a 3.8 percent BDR. If Flynn's 2010 totals are an indication of what he will bring to the table, he will not be an upgrade over Jackson.

The counterargument would be that Jackson's 2011 numbers are based on a much larger sample size and therefore are a much more likely indicator of his performance ceiling than Flynn's 2010 campaign.

True as that is at some level, Jackson's history suggests he also has a higher ceiling than what he displayed last year. For example, back in 2007, Jackson had a 2.3 percent BDR and posted quality totals in a variety of vertical sub-metrics.

This isn't to say that the Seahawks should stick with Jackson as their starter, but rather to note that there are multiple reasons to think the Seahawks could get a VYPA in the low-to-mid 10-yard range and a BDR of less than 3 percent with Jackson under center.

If Flynn merely equals those numbers, as his history suggests is quite possible, this will not be an upgrade for Seattle. He will have to top those numbers in order for this to have been money well spent by the Seahawks' front office.

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As I stated earlier, reports out of MIA were that they were lowballing Flynn because of his desire to play in MIA - not even offering starter's money.

 

And FWIW - for that kind of money I would have loved to see DEN make a play on Flynn and send Tebow somewhere for a 3rd rounder.

 

It wouldn't be the first time an NFL team did something insanely stupid, but I keep going back to the fact that the one guy (outside of GB) who knew more about Flynn than anyone else would have likely pushed a bit harder if he truly wanted him. Like you said, that's not even starters money. I can see Miami vetoing the new HC if someone came along and gave him a ton of money, but I can't imagine them trying to get this cute, to the point of losing him to someone else for such a pedestrian contract, if the HC truly wanted him.
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I can see Miami vetoing the new HC if someone came along and gave him a ton of money, but I can't imagine them trying to get this cute, to the point of losing him to someone else for such a pedestrian contract, if the HC truly wanted him.

 

 

I think you may be overestimating the ownership/GM in MIA. Perhaps vastly. Every indication in the Flynn negotiations were that they were trying to get that cute.

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Interesting article in ESPN today on Flynn by KC Joyner (in the Insider Section) - paints the contrarian picture about Flynn's signing...I've pasted below. My critique of KC's argument is that while criticizing people that like Flynn for the small data set of play he's provided, he uses that same small data set to set up the potential challenges Flynn has.

 

Blah blah blah blah

 

If Flynn merely equals those numbers, as his history suggests is quite possible, this will not be an upgrade for Seattle. He will have to top those numbers in order for this to have been money well spent by the Seahawks' front office.

 

 

The difference being that in watching Flynn play that he passes the eye/smell test, which Jackson does not. I'm not sure why there is such an effort to find a way to discredit Flynn's numbers.

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I think you may be overestimating the ownership/GM in MIA. Perhaps vastly. Every indication in the Flynn negotiations were that they were trying to get that cute.

 

I'm not questioning the fact that Miami tried to get him on the cheap. That much is obvious. What I'm wondering is how much their new HC truly wanted him if they were going to do that. Perhaps this coach, who knows Flynn as well as anyone in the league thought, "sure, he could end up being really good, but I like my chances with a bunch of other guys just as much, so let's not get silly. If we can get him at a price that doesn't lock us down for the next 5 years, let's do it. Otherwise..."

 

Perhaps, if they had it to do over again, they might have gone a bit higher, because, again like you said, that's not even really starter's money. But it does speak volumes to me that they didn't just go out and get their new HC his boy. That, perhaps he's not actually "his boy" afterall. I mean, QB is the one position where teams just say "screw it" and pay guys, likely because it sends a message that they're truly behind someone. If they were even willing to pay him borderline starter's salary, that message wouldn't have been sent, but they weren't even willing to do that.

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