Flynn a Seahawk

[Square]

Bad GM in MIA or not, I take this as an indication of what the old GB OC really thought of Flynn. One game against an injured Lyons secondary isn't going to sell me that he is the real deal. Seattle doesn't have that much money tied up in him so it looks like a good deal for them. None of us really have the "facts" of how Flynn's dealings with MIA went. It's all rumors or leaked "insider" info. The fact that the contract is so reasonable (10 mil guaranteed) I'd have to think that if he could run the same offense he already knew and play for his previous OC, he'd go to Miami if they would match terms.

[bpwallace49]

I think the small sample size for playing led to speculation about getting handed the keys to a team. He can "compete" against tavaris jackson and there is a fallback if he falters. That being said I like Flynn and theink he will surprise and do well for Seattle.

 

Miami would have no safety net, and didnt put all the eggs in the Flynn basket. However their lack of pursuing anyone else besides Manning was foolish.

 

Vince Young might be a starter next year if miami gets rebuffed by Alex Smith and Peyton goes to Denver.

[Bronco Billy]

Okay, let's take a look at Flynn's numbers when he played meaningful time. That's a 3 game data set, two games on the road last year against DET and NE - which was a nationally televised Sunday night game, and the home game vs DET this year. DET's pass D last year was 16th in yds, 13th in TDs, and 19th in INTs. NE's pass D last year was 30th in yds, 21st in TDs, and 1st in INTs. DET's pass D this year was 22nd in yds, 22nd in TDs, and 5th in INTs.

 

Those numbers are against teams that in 2 of three cases were playoff teams - and both with something to play for when they were played - and in 2 of three cases on the road. Flynn had one week to prepare as a starter in two of those cases and entered with the game in progress in the other one.

 

Cumulative numbers in those games:

 

70 for 107, 65.4% comp.

908 yds, 8.49 ypa

9 TDs 3 INTs

108.3 QB rating

 

Those numbers translated into last season's stats in NFL ranking:

 

#5 completion pctg

#4 ypa

#3 QB rating

 

I don't know - as a NFL GM would you rather pay this guy low starter's money, especially when you've got a decent sampling of NFL game film on him as well as the numbers, continue on with Jackson, or take a chance on a mid 1st to high 2nd rounder in the draft?

Edited March 19, 2012 by Bronco Billy

[detlef]

Okay, let's take a look at Flynn's numbers when he played meaningful time. That's a 3 game data set, two games on the road last year against DET and NE - which was a nationally televised Sunday night game, and the home game vs DET this year. DET's pass D last year was 16th in yds, 13th in TDs, and 19th in INTs. NE's pass D last year was 30th in yds, 21st in TDs, and 1st in INTs. DET's pass D this year was 22nd in yds, 22nd in TDs, and 5th in INTs.

 

Those numbers are against teams that in 2 of three cases were playoff teams - and both with something to play for when they were played - and in 2 of three cases on the road. Flynn had one week to prepare as a starter in two of those cases and entered with the game in progress in the other one.

 

Cumulative numbers in those games:

 

70 for 107, 65.4% comp.

908 yds, 8.49 ypa

9 TDs 3 INTs

108.3 QB rating

 

Those numbers translated into last season's stats in NFL ranking:

 

#5 completion pctg

#4 ypa

#3 QB rating

 

I don't know - as a NFL GM would you rather pay this guy low starter's money, especially when you've got a decent sampling of NFL game film on him as well as the numbers, continue on with Jackson, or take a chance on a mid 1st to high 2nd rounder in the draft?

 

I don't think anyone is doubting that Seattle got a good deal. Is anyone saying Seattle overpaid for him?

[Bronco Billy]

I don't think anyone is doubting that Seattle got a good deal. Is anyone saying Seattle overpaid for him?

 

 

No, but there is the cited article that detracts from taking Flynn as an upgrade over Jackson and puts them on equal footing.

[detlef]

No, but there is the cited article that detracts from taking Flynn as an upgrade over Jackson and puts them on equal footing.

 

I guess I'm more trusting than you. Like I'm going to give Miami the benefit of the doubt on this one, I'm going to assume that the author of that article was simply throwing out food for thought with that. As in "Before you assume that Flynn is going to be the next Tom Brady, you might be interested in seeing how he actually stacks up next to a QB that everyone essentially agrees is basically a stiff."

[Bronco Billy]

I guess I'm more trusting than you. Like I'm going to give Miami the benefit of the doubt on this one, I'm going to assume that the author of that article was simply throwing out food for thought with that. As in "Before you assume that Flynn is going to be the next Tom Brady, you might be interested in seeing how he actually stacks up next to a QB that everyone essentially agrees is basically a stiff."

 

 

I don't recall arguing that Flynn is the next Brady. Perhaps you can find where I made that statement and quote it for me? I'm just making the argument that MIA passed on what could have been a much better risk at QB for them because they chose to lowball Flynn badly. Noone is going to be able to make any definitive statement on Flynn as a long term starter until he actually performs in the role - but there is evidence on Flynn that he could be very good and it seems kind of futile to try to diminish his limited accomplishments so badly. That's a strong body of work albeit that it is a very small sample.

Edited March 19, 2012 by Bronco Billy

[detlef]

I don't recall arguing that Flynn is the next Brady. Perhaps you can find where I made that statement and quote it for me? I'm just making the argument that MIA passed on what could have been a much better risk at QB for them because they chose to lowball Flynn badly. Noone is going to be able to make any definitive statement on Flynn as a long term starter until he actually performs in the role - but there is evidence on Flynn that he could be very good and it seems kind of futile to try to diminish his limited accomplishments so badly. That's a strong body of work albiet that it is a very small sample.

 

Where did I say you did? I'm pretty sure the author of that article was not writing it to you specifically. I'm merely pointing out why a guy would write a contrarian article like the one written, to provide a counterpoint to everyone fixating on the fact that he set GB franchise records in his last start.

[Bronco Billy]

Where did I say you did?

 

Did you not post the quote of yours that I cited?

[detlef]

Did you not post the quote of yours that I cited?

 

Like I said, I'm pretty sure the author of the article quoted was not writing it to you, in particular. Maybe he was. Maybe every single person who writes anything at all on the subject of football is actually engaged in an argument with you.

 

I put it in quotes to imply that it was a rattionale for the article in general. Would you feel better if I changed "before you assume" to "before one assumes"?

Edited March 19, 2012 by detlef

[Bronco Billy]

Like I said, I'm pretty sure the author of the article quoted was not writing it to you, in particular. Maybe he was. Maybe every single person who writes anything at all on the subject of football is actually engaged in an argument with you.

 

I put it in quotes to imply that it was a rattionale for the article in general. Would you feel better if I changed "before you assume" to "before one assumes"?

 

 

man, you really have your hyperbole machine cranked up on high today, don't you?

[detlef]

man, you really have your hyperbole machine cranked up on high today, don't you?

 

Actually, that's an entirely rational conclusion. Were it not, entirely about you, then I'd guess you would have realized from the first post that I wasn't claiming you said he'd be the next Brady. And, in the off-chance that you did, you certainly would have understood the intent of the post once I clarified. But you didn't, in either case. So, once I rule out the notion that you're an idiot, which I'm rather certain is not the case, that only leaves the notion that, at least you think, that every single thing written on the subject is done so in an argument with you.

[caddyman]

Actually, that's an entirely rational conclusion. Were it not, entirely about you, then I'd guess you would have realized from the first post that I wasn't claiming you said he'd be the next Brady. And, in the off-chance that you did, you certainly would have understood the intent of the post once I clarified. But you didn't, in either case. So, once I rule out the notion that you're an idiot, which I'm rather certain is not the case, that only leaves the notion that, at least you think, that every single thing written on the subject is done so in an argument with you.

 

 

Ding Ding Ding...we have a winner. Dude just can't help himself. Good lord, he keeps touting the game against Detroit as one against a playoff team completely ignoring the porous nature of their defense. Good lord, the guy MIGHT end up being decent. There is just no real sample to say that he is a pretty sure thing.

[caddyman]

I'm not questioning the fact that Miami tried to get him on the cheap. That much is obvious. What I'm wondering is how much their new HC truly wanted him if they were going to do that. Perhaps this coach, who knows Flynn as well as anyone in the league thought, "sure, he could end up being really good, but I like my chances with a bunch of other guys just as much, so let's not get silly. If we can get him at a price that doesn't lock us down for the next 5 years, let's do it. Otherwise..."

 

Perhaps, if they had it to do over again, they might have gone a bit higher, because, again like you said, that's not even really starter's money. But it does speak volumes to me that they didn't just go out and get their new HC his boy. That, perhaps he's not actually "his boy" afterall. I mean, QB is the one position where teams just say "screw it" and pay guys, likely because it sends a message that they're truly behind someone. If they were even willing to pay him borderline starter's salary, that message wouldn't have been sent, but they weren't even willing to do that.

 

 

Some additional FACTS from an article on ESPN.COM...all the items below are from that article...

 

The big issue in analyzing the Seattle Seahawks' signing of Matt Flynn to a three-year, $26 million contract is to find out exactly how much he can improve the Hawks' offense.

 

 

Some may think his addition will be a huge upgrade because of how well Flynn played against Detroit in Week 17 last year, but as was noted in a recent Insider article, his performance in that game has to be taken with more than a grain of salt.

 

 

 

Quoting the article:

 

 

 

• "As remarkable as his record-setting numbers in that game were, it's just as important to note that Flynn went 13-for-17 for 258 yards and four touchdowns on passes thrown at Alphonso Smith, Chris Harris and Chris Houston.

 

 

 

 

 

• "Context matters. Smith is so bad in coverage that Denver gave up on him after only one season, despite him being their top second-round pick in the 2009 NFL draft. Harris' history is no better, as his mediocre skills are a big part of why the Lions were his third NFL team in three years. While Houston has a much stronger metric history than those two, he was slowed by an injury that didn't show up until a few days before the Green Bay game.

 

 

 

 

 

• "In other words, the correct way to view Flynn's record-setting game is to say that it proves he can post dominant numbers if he is surrounded by very talented pass-catchers and faces a weak and injury-riddled secondary at home."

 

 

 

 

Grading Flynn on this performance alone might be akin to grading Tarvaris Jackson, Seattle's starting quarterback for most of the 2011 season, by his 13-for-16 for 190 yards and one touchdown performance against the Eagles in Week 13. Those numbers are great but they represent only one game.

 

 

The only other sampling at the NFL level we have of Flynn is the two-game stint he played during the 2010 season when Aaron Rodgers was hurt.

 

 

Flynn's overall numbers in those games were so-so: 39-for-63 for 428 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. That equates to an 84.6 passer rating, or slightly above the 82.2 league average for that season (according to pro-football-reference.com).

 

 

But check out Flynn's metrics by route depth in those contests:

 

 

Matt Flynn's 2010 season stats vs. Detroit, New England

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Route Depth Comp Att Yds TD Int Pen Pen Yds YPA Bdec Bdec % Short (1-10 yards) 33 41 262 2 1 2 4 6.2 0 0.0% Medium (11-19 yards) 4 9 68 0 1 0 0 7.6 1 11.1% Deep (20-29 yards) 2 6 98 1 0 0 0 16.3 1 16.7% Bomb (30+ yards) 0 3 0 0 0 1 5 1.3 1 25.0% Other (throwaways, etc.) 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0.0% Total 39 63 428 3 2 3 9 6.5 3 4.5% Vertical (11+ yards) 6 18 166 1 1 1 5 9.0 3 15.8% Stretch Vertical (20+ yards) 2 9 98 1 0 1 5 10.3 2 20.0%

 

 

The yards per attempt (YPA) totals are mediocre or worse at every depth level and the 9.0 vertical yards per attempt (VYPA) is especially poor.

 

 

 

 

 

Even more disturbing is the 4.5 percent bad decision rate (BDR). BDR measures how often a quarterback makes a mental error that leads either to a turnover or a near turnover such as a dropped interception.

 

 

A BDR of 3 percent is considered to be unacceptable -- and Flynn was 50 percent higher than that in these contests.

 

 

Despite the small sample size, those numbers give some perspective as to where Flynn could end up. But how do Flynn's numbers compare with the totals posted by Jackson last season?

 

 

Jackson tallied a 9.3 VYPA and had a 3.8 percent BDR. If Flynn's 2010 totals are an indication of what he will bring to the table, he will not be an upgrade over Jackson.

 

 

The counterargument would be that Jackson's 2011 numbers are based on a much larger sample size and therefore are a much more likely indicator of his performance ceiling than Flynn's 2010 campaign.

 

 

True as that is at some level, Jackson's history suggests he also has a higher ceiling than what he displayed last year. For example, back in 2007, Jackson had a 2.3 percent BDR and posted quality totals in a variety of vertical sub-metrics.

 

 

This isn't to say that the Seahawks should stick with Jackson as their starter, but rather to note that there are multiple reasons to think the Seahawks could get a VYPA in the low-to-mid 10-yard range and a BDR of less than 3 percent with Jackson under center.

 

 

If Flynn merely equals those numbers, as his history suggests is quite possible, this will not be an upgrade for Seattle. He will have to top those numbers in order for this to have been money well spent by the Seahawks' front office.

[Bronco Billy]

Ding Ding Ding...we have a winner. Dude just can't help himself. Good lord, he keeps touting the game against Detroit as one against a playoff team completely ignoring the porous nature of their defense. Good lord, the guy MIGHT end up being decent. There is just no real sample to say that he is a pretty sure thing.

 

 

Thanks for completely ignoring post #28, among others, and instead gleefully busting out your jump-to-conclusions mat.

[Bronco Billy]

Some additional FACTS from an article on ESPN.COM...all the items below are from that article...

 

 

 

Thanks for completely reiterating post #21.

[Scooby's Hubby]

I like rooting on East Texas high school players. Hope he does well.

[delusions of grandeur]

Man, Billy must be more pissed than we thought about Manning... He's practically begging someone to trash the Flynn signing.

[Bronco Billy]

Man, Billy must be more pissed than we thought about Manning... He's practically begging someone to trash the Flynn signing.

 

Nah, Det and I were having a good discussion and a little fun with each other. Caddyman saw the very end of it and instead of reading to actually understand my position - or even to see that the ginormous article he posted had already been added to the thread and was a source of points of discussion - he instead blindly flew into attack mode. Every point he brought up thinking he had scored major "gotchas" were all things I had addressed earlier. It can be frustrating.

Edited March 19, 2012 by Bronco Billy

[Medal of Honor]

So what I'm wondering - Can the Seahawks be a contender with this guy if the 49ers lose Alex Smith to MIA?

[godtomsatan]

A few questions for the criticals of the deal:

 

Kevin Kolb got 5 yrs/$63 million/$21mil guaranteed

Matt Flynn got 3 yrs/$26 million/$10mil guaranteed

 

What's the better contract?

 

Does it make Seattle better? Maybe, maybe not. Flynn is fairly unproven, but John Schneider, the Seahawk GM, was part of the front office that drafted him, and cited him as a value selection in the 7th Round. Even though they already had drafted Brian Brohm in the 3rd Round.

 

Does it give them a younger option that isn't Tarvaris Jackson for a modest sum considering what the other QB options on the market would be getting? Yep.

 

Does it allow them to focus on other areas of the team (D-Line, LB, WR, RB, O-Line) in the remainder of free agency and the earliest portions of the draft? Yep.

 

Why the hate about the signing? It addresses a bunch of issues for the Seahawks without breaking the bank and allows them flexibility the rest of the way out.

[detlef]

A few questions for the criticals of the deal:

 

Kevin Kolb got 5 yrs/$63 million/$21mil guaranteed

Matt Flynn got 3 yrs/$26 million/$10mil guaranteed

 

What's the better contract?

 

Does it make Seattle better? Maybe, maybe not. Flynn is fairly unproven, but John Schneider, the Seahawk GM, was part of the front office that drafted him, and cited him as a value selection in the 7th Round. Even though they already had drafted Brian Brohm in the 3rd Round.

 

Does it give them a younger option that isn't Tarvaris Jackson for a modest sum considering what the other QB options on the market would be getting? Yep.

 

Does it allow them to focus on other areas of the team (D-Line, LB, WR, RB, O-Line) in the remainder of free agency and the earliest portions of the draft? Yep.

 

Why the hate about the signing? It addresses a bunch of issues for the Seahawks without breaking the bank and allows them flexibility the rest of the way out.

 

Like I asked Bronco, who here is saying this is a bad signing? The most I did was mention that, perhaps Miami's new HC, Flynn's former OC, wasn't as fired up about having him as everyone assumed or they wouldn't have been out-bid by such a pedestrian offer. Honestly, I think Seattle did great. They certainly don't have anyone better, and if Flynn tanks, it's not like they're stuck with him.

[Ditkaless Wonders]

Flynn is football smart. He understands his progressions and reads defenses very well. He does not have a strong arm but he throws a nice ball that cuts the autumn breezes without getting knocked out of line.

 

I absolutely believe in the kid. I find it strange that Miami did not want him enough to just get it done. I understand why some are reading that tea leaf as Philbin having reservations. It does seem a natural conclusion.

Edited March 19, 2012 by Ditkaless Wonders

[ajh2]

Brohm was drafted in the 2ND Round.

[Big John]

Brohm was drafted in the 2ND Round.

 

A desperation move by TT after Favre supposedly made hie retirement final