Top 10 QBs....

[osu1322]

i had an interesting conversation with a co worker about QBs the other day. We started trying to list the top 10 QBs and found that there were several big prospects (from Luck to Flynn) that would be getting their shot next year. Anyways I'm planning on listing my top 10 and reasoning. I'm sure it will start a good debate.

 

#1 Aaron Rogers- great numbers last years, still has a great receiving corp and is mobile outside the pocket. Oh and Discount Double check

 

#2 Drew Brees- The main reason I have Rogers over Brees is the Bounty thing. I think he is still going to put up great numbers but there will be a distraction from not having the head coach this year. Then again this may lead to him commanding the offense like Manning in Indy...

 

#3 Cam Newton- He can throw, he can run and he's a headache for defensive coordinators. That being said, he may fall into the Vick problem of everyone will be trying to stop him.

 

#4 Tom Brady- I don't like the guy but I'll draft him cause he'll put up solid numbers every year... He also tends to have a couple of those crazy stat games that just win you weeks.

 

#5 Matthew Stafford- This is a if he's healthy I see him in the top 5. He had great numbers last year and still has weapons to throw to.

 

#6 Payton Manning- Yep I'm on the bus... I've been a Manning fan and still am. He'll bring all kinds of depth to the Broncos and i'll honestly be looking a their depth chart and could be drafting a #3 or #4 receiver late just cause I think Manning will use them....

 

#7 Matt Ryan- Been another solid producer. Great receivers and no reason to knock him..

 

#8 Michael Vick- He runs and jumps and even throws the ball once in a while... I think he'll be settling in to Philly and doing less stuff on the fly.

 

#9 Josh Freeman- The Bucs have made some big pick ups at WR this off season and I'm expecting big things from him.

 

#10 Andrew Luck- I'm sure he won't bring Indy back to their former greatness all at once but from what I've seen he's been impressive. That and I just want to start some discussion if he belongs here or not

[caddyman]

i had an interesting conversation with a co worker about QBs the other day. We started trying to list the top 10 QBs and found that there were several big prospects (from Luck to Flynn) that would be getting their shot next year. Anyways I'm planning on listing my top 10 and reasoning. I'm sure it will start a good debate.

 

#1 Aaron Rogers- great numbers last years, still has a great receiving corp and is mobile outside the pocket. Oh and Discount Double check

 

#2 Drew Brees- The main reason I have Rogers over Brees is the Bounty thing. I think he is still going to put up great numbers but there will be a distraction from not having the head coach this year. Then again this may lead to him commanding the offense like Manning in Indy...

 

#3 Cam Newton- He can throw, he can run and he's a headache for defensive coordinators. That being said, he may fall into the Vick problem of everyone will be trying to stop him.

 

#4 Tom Brady- I don't like the guy but I'll draft him cause he'll put up solid numbers every year... He also tends to have a couple of those crazy stat games that just win you weeks.

 

#5 Matthew Stafford- This is a if he's healthy I see him in the top 5. He had great numbers last year and still has weapons to throw to.

 

#6 Payton Manning- Yep I'm on the bus... I've been a Manning fan and still am. He'll bring all kinds of depth to the Broncos and i'll honestly be looking a their depth chart and could be drafting a #3 or #4 receiver late just cause I think Manning will use them....

 

#7 Matt Ryan- Been another solid producer. Great receivers and no reason to knock him..

 

#8 Michael Vick- He runs and jumps and even throws the ball once in a while... I think he'll be settling in to Philly and doing less stuff on the fly.

 

#9 Josh Freeman- The Bucs have made some big pick ups at WR this off season and I'm expecting big things from him.

 

#10 Andrew Luck- I'm sure he won't bring Indy back to their former greatness all at once but from what I've seen he's been impressive. That and I just want to start some discussion if he belongs here or not

 

 

Replace #9 with Eli and #10 with Ben. Not sold on Freeman and Luck will not sniff the top 10. That team will be a disaster. He will be lucky to survive the season.

[Bronco Billy]

i had an interesting conversation with a co worker about QBs the other day. We started trying to list the top 10 QBs and found that there were several big prospects (from Luck to Flynn) that would be getting their shot next year. Anyways I'm planning on listing my top 10 and reasoning. I'm sure it will start a good debate.

 

 

 

Notable exclusions from your list:

 

E Manning

Romo

Schaub

Rivers

Roethlisberger

 

Based uopn FF ppg performances, I think you've got to make room on that list for at least E Manning, Romo, and Schaub on that list.

 

I'd edit it and make it look like this:

 

1) Rodgers

2) Brees

3) Brady

4) Newton

5) Stafford

6) E Manning

7) Romo

8) Vick

9) Schaub

10) Ryan

 

Yes, I left P Manning off. He still has arm questions no matter how great he was in the past - until he conclusively proves otherwise in pads, and DEN is going to be a team that will still run a ton under Fox, plus he'll be implementing his system with a whole new cast of characters. Rivers is awfully close, but Gates' health is in question as always and he lost Jackson. Jury is still out on Freeman, but he ought to recover some of that magic from 2 years ago.

 

I don't see a rookie cracking that list no matter how good of a career they may end up with.

 

Regardless, you look at this list and it would seem that savvy FFers would hold off on QB for quite a while in drafts. You ought to be able to put a great QBBC together with the last 3-4 guys and then adding Roethlisberger, Rivers, P Manning, Rivers, Cutler, Freeman, Flacco, and the 2 top rookies and playing matchups. Very, very deep FF QB class this coming year. And that still leaves guys like Fitzpatrick, Bradford, and Flynn unaccounted for.

Edited March 24, 2012 by Bronco Billy

[piratesownninjas]

If this is for fantasy then I'd throw Romo in around 7. No way he's not on the list but Matt Ryan is.

[Brentastic]

Definitely need to include Eli, Romo, Schaub and Rivers.

 

I'd take out Luck, Freeman, Vick and Ryan to make room for the above guys I mentioned.

[boltnlava]

Typical Rivers hate. I don't get it. Freeman before Rivers? Really? I don't need to go on and on, his numbers speak for themselves.

[bostonsoxandy]

I'd go

1. Rodgers (obvious)

2. Brees (obvious)

3. Brady--I have very high expectations. In fact if he looks good w/ Lloyd preseason I'd put him over Brees. Suddenly he has impressive targets: Gronk, Lloyd, Welker, and Hernandez are gonna be scary

4. Newton--stated above

5. E Manning--over Stafford due to consistency, still think Stafford is high injury risk, not top 5

6. Stafford

7. Rivers--rebound season this upcoming season gonna have a limited ceiling with no VJax and a year older Gates. Def. not targeting Rivers in a draft

8. Romo--Dude's consistent. Dez should be better if he stays healthy, and Miles and Witten give him good security as far as where he finishes in QB ranks

9. Vick--Hardest guy to rank. 2 years ago he went way above expectations, last year went way below. Not targeting him but if he should does slightly better his fantasy #'s will be good enough.

10. P Manning--I'd take him over any rook, Freeman, Ryan, Schaub, or Roeth. The upside is him finishing top 3 and the downside is scary to think about.

Edited March 24, 2012 by bostonsoxandy

[osu1322]

there seems to be a fairly consistent top 5.

1) Rodgers

2) Brees

3) Brady

4) Newton

5) Stafford

 

The later half of the list is where people are picking favorites. You like this person cause he's got new WR or is healthy again. I will grant I over looked Eli and he should be on the list...

 

Espn's stats from last year (this is point in a std league I'm pretty sure) were as follows

 

 

 

C/A YDS TD INT RUSH YDS TD REC YDS TD TAR 2PC FUML RTD PTS Aaron Rodgers, GB QB 343/502 4643 45 6 60 257 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 385 Drew Brees, NO QB 468/657 5476 46 14 21 86 1 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 380 Tom Brady, NE QB P 401/611 5235 39 12 43 109 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 352 Cam Newton, Car QB 310/517 4051 21 17 126 706 14 1 27 0 1 2 2 0 352 Matthew Stafford, Det QB 421/663 5038 41 16 22 78 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 333 Eli Manning, NYG QB 359/589 4933 29 16 35 15 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 273 Tony Romo, Dal QB 346/522 4184 31 10 22 46 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 265 Matt Ryan, Atl QB 347/566 4177 29 12 37 84 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 260 Philip Rivers, SD QB 366/582 4624 27 20 26 36 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 246 Mark Sanchez, NYJ QB 308/543 3474 26 18 37 103 6 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 227

[Savage Beatings]

Bottom line is this... in Fantasy re-drafts you can definitely wait until later rounds to get a high producing QB.

[Azazello1313]

in fantasy, it's brady, rodgers, brees and newton...and then everyone else.

[Ice1]

Fantasy wise, Romo would be #5 in my book just ahead of Stafford. In games played more than a series he finished 6th last year playing hurt several games. He has serious weapons, two of which were also hurt several games. Stafford is the one that worries me quite a bit given they had no running game to speak of so I expect a decline given what looks to be a better power game this season. This could easily impact his very high volume of short passes. I am dropping him behind Eli, who I also like this year, so no way I will have him on any redraft team. He will go 2 rounds higher as so many look at gross production as the key criteria year to year. Could be wrong but he has risk when you look at his distribution and weakness in certain quadrents from an accuracy perspective. That said, Calvin cures a lot with his catch radius.

 

I do agree the the top 4 are pretty easy in some order between Brady, Rodgers, Brees, and Newton.

Edited March 24, 2012 by Ice1

[Savage Beatings]

Anyone worried about a serious Sophomore Slump for Cam Newton this year? Everyone has a year of film on him and the expectations are incredibly high.

[piratesownninjas]

in fantasy, it's brady, rodgers, brees and newton...and then everyone else.

 

You mean Rodgers, then Brady/Brees/Newton.

[piratesownninjas]

Fantasy wise, Romo would be #5 in my book just ahead of Stafford. In games played more than a series he finished 6th last year playing hurt several games. He has serious weapons, two of which were also hurt several games. Stafford is the one that worries me quite a bit given they had no running game to speak of so I expect a decline given what looks to be a better power game this season. This could easily impact his very high volume of short passes. I am dropping him behind Eli, who I also like this year, so no way I will have him on any redraft team. He will go 2 rounds higher as so many look at gross production as the key criteria year to year. Could be wrong but he has risk when you look at his distribution and weakness in certain quadrents from an accuracy perspective. That said, Calvin cures a lot with his catch radius.

 

I do agree the the top 4 are pretty easy in some order between Brady, Rodgers, Brees, and Newton.

 

As much as I dislike the Lions, I think Stafford is top 3. Talk about weapons... He has the ultimate weapon in Calvin Johnson, a maturing, Titus Young, and some healthy running backs.

As far as Romo, I'm as high on Romo as any non homer can be, but we can't discount the loss of Laurent Robinson. He was the security blanket last year. His loss with Miles Austin's ever recurring hammy issues, and Dez being Dez, I just can't put him ahead of Stafford. I think at worst Romo is 7. Highest I could put him is 5.

[Brentastic]

Anyone worried about a serious Sophomore Slump for Cam Newton this year? Everyone has a year of film on him and the expectations are incredibly high.

 

Yes. I worry about sophomore slumps for all players and Cam is no exception.

[delusions of grandeur]

Fantasy wise, Romo would be #5 in my book just ahead of Stafford. In games played more than a series he finished 6th last year playing hurt several games. He has serious weapons, two of which were also hurt several games. Stafford is the one that worries me quite a bit given they had no running game to speak of so I expect a decline given what looks to be a better power game this season. This could easily impact his very high volume of short passes. I am dropping him behind Eli, who I also like this year, so no way I will have him on any redraft team. He will go 2 rounds higher as so many look at gross production as the key criteria year to year. Could be wrong but he has risk when you look at his distribution and weakness in certain quadrents from an accuracy perspective. That said, Calvin cures a lot with his catch radius.

 

I do agree the the top 4 are pretty easy in some order between Brady, Rodgers, Brees, and Newton.

 

I'm curious, which areas does he struggle in accuracy? Because what few areas he may not be great, he also has the ability to drop some balls in windows that most guys simply can't. Maybe he can't do that all the time, but I think the times/passes when he's on target far exceed any little accuracy (or maybe the better word is consistency?) issues... Remember that he quietly threw for 5,000 yards last year, so even a slight regression to the mean, and he's a good bet for top 5 piling on the TDs with Calvin.

 

As for Ryan, I agree that there are probably 10 QBs I'd take before Ryan, but then again, if I really liked my FF team around him, he's probably alot safer to finish in the top 10 as long as Gonz, Roddy, Julio are here for one more year, then some of those guys who could be top 5 or on the fringe top 15 depending on the season.

[Ice1]

I'm curious, which areas does he struggle in accuracy? Because what few areas he may not be great, he also has the ability to drop some balls in windows that most guys simply can't. Maybe he can't do that all the time, but I think the times/passes when he's on target far exceed any little accuracy (or maybe the better word is consistency?) issues... Remember that he quietly threw for 5,000 yards last year, so even a slight regression to the mean, and he's a good bet for top 5 piling on the TDs with Calvin.

 

As for Ryan, I agree that there are probably 10 QBs I'd take before Ryan, but then again, if I really liked my FF team around him, he's probably alot safer to finish in the top 10 as long as Gonz, Roddy, Julio are here for one more year, then some of those guys who could be top 5 or on the fringe top 15 depending on the season.

 

 

I will take at shot at answering your question.

 

He didn't quietly pass for over 5000 yards; He had more drop backs than every single QB in the league including Brees. (717). 339 of his attempts came from 0-9 yards. He had another 94 attempts behind the line scrimage. When I analyze him, I first try to answer the question as to why given thier offensive system. Detroit had massive RB issues last year starting with the loss of thier power back Leshoure. They then lost Best who was thier explosion back. In essence, they adapted due to a serious weakness in thier running game IMO. 9 of his interceptions also came in this area of the passing game. Obviously, attempts are lower than drop backs but 433 attempts out of 663 (#1) actual attempts are not ratios I like to see unless we are talking Brees who may be the best short passer ever.

 

While shorter passses do help drive up accuracy and yards they drive down yards per attempt. His 7.6 is too low IMO. Brees as an example, maintained an 8.3 Y/A with a huge advantage in completion percentage topping 71%.

 

I am not saying he is bad by any stretch but falls well below a few QB's in things I look at. Calvin is a big equalizer no doubt but not enough IMO to make Stafford a tier one draft selection. I have no doubt he will go that high but IMO he will be a reach relative to obvious draft positon slot. Therefore I would rather grab a talent skill positon and then get a QB like a Romo, Rivers, Eli later.

 

I still have him top 10 with potential just not top 5. Obviously, this is my perception and many may disagree but I see a more balanced attack from the Lions this year if they hope to compete for the division. He will have a difficult time regardless as Rodgers is a vastly superior QB IMO. He had 161 fewer attempts , around 5% better completion %, 9.2 Y/A, 7 more TD's, and 11 fewer turnovers.

 

Stafford will go pretty close to Rodgers this season in drafts but once I drill down the numbers he is not very close.

 

I see a potential for a 50-75 drop off in attempts this season.

 

I agree on Ryan as well, surprisingly for many of the same traits I see in Stafford. Stafford is a better pick than Ryan but these QB's are very similar in how they actually play the game.

Edited March 24, 2012 by Ice1

[Avernus]

Rodgers

Brees

Brady

Stafford

Newton

Rivers

Eli

Peyton

Romo

Vick?

[Wpob]

Bottom line is if you are not going to use an early pick on Rodgers, Brady, Brees or Newton, you can get decent value even after the 7th round with the remaining QBs.

[Guest FT32]

Think top QB this year will be Brady, here's why: Look at his stats last year: 5,235 yards 39 TD's and 12 INT's...now teams you might think will get this two headed TE thing figured out or that there is no back up for Gronk or Herneandez....think again...enter Fells, Lloyd, Gonzalez and Stallworth. In addition to covering the TE's how do you cover Lloyd on fly's and posts and Welker in the middle? You got to be kidding me!! No way, fantasy wise I don't snap Brady as the first option if I'm going after QB early....think 5,500 yards and 50 TDs are conceivable as they upgrade the "D" with Fanene at DE and Gregory at Safety....the D wil get Brady more possessions and that with a lack of a running game, could translate to huge numbers!!! Think Packers will try to improve running game and Rodgers will be top 5 just not the best.....here is what my thoughts are:

 

1-Brady

2-Stafford

3-Rodgers

4-Brees

5-Peyton Manning

6-Eli Manning

7-Cam Newton

8-Tony Romo

9-Michael Vick

10-Ben Roethlisberger/Matt Ryan (tie)

[i_am_the_swammi]

in fantasy, it's brady, rodgers, brees and newton...and then everyone else.

 

I'll bet you....hmmm...whatever you want that those four don't all finish top-4 this year.

[Avernus]

 

 

I'll bet you....hmmm...whatever you want that those four don't all finish top-4 this year.

 

 

I agree....At least one slips performance-wise and another gets hurt.....or maybe just one does either or...

 

Edit: Newton is just screaming sophmore slump in my head regardless for some reason...

Edited March 26, 2012 by Avernus

[Azazello1313]

You mean Rodgers, then Brady/Brees/Newton.

 

no, if I meant that I would have said that. in a redraft for 2012 I would take Brady before him. better weapons.

[Azazello1313]

I'll bet you....hmmm...whatever you want that those four don't all finish top-4 this year.

 

stupid post. that would be a really dumb bet on my part, as the odds of that exact four-horse quinella hitting is remote, even if they are clearly the four best bets to finish well.