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The Truth About Rookie Running Backs


DMD
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Very interesting. I didn't realize what a downturn it's been, but that puts it in perspective a little

 

I think Matt Forte was the best since I've been playing FF. We knew he was drafted to be "the guy" and he was everything we hoped he would be. Sure have been a lot of disappointments lately though.. . Moreno, Best, Wells, Greene, etc. Some have flashed, but no FF superstars out of the highly touted guys in a little while

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Went through the last 18 years of rookie running backs to see how bad or good it really was drafting them for your fantasy team. Aahh, for the days of 2008...

 

Who was your favorite rookie running back? Had to be a few years ago.

 

 

Carnell Williams was my favorite cause I drafted him in the 5th round in 2005 and then traded him after his week #1 performance for Edgerrin James (who ended up being the 4th best RB in our league that year).

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Portis in 2002 was memorable because I drafted him, dropped him after the first couple games, then my roommate added him once he had his breakout game. I lost to him in the playoffs that year when portis had like 30 points. salt in the wound.

 

CJ2K was my pick in 2008 and helped me make a playoff run. definitely a happier memory than portis.

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Back in 1995, I loaded up on WR and then drafted a couple of rookie backs late who pulled through - Curtis Martin and Terrell Davis. That was a good year.

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I think I was a little late to get in on the ground floor with Portis, but I did with MJD (I've always had a soft spot for the short guys, at 5'7 myself). I think I drafted him almost every year from 2006 to 2009, when he was key in delivering me a championship (though ironically this was also when his value was at it's peak at 1.05 and no longer a steal with a mid-round pick).

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James was probably the best rookie of all time. As a rookie he ran 369-1553 and added 62-586 as a receiver with a total of 17 touchdowns. Throw that into a PPR league and it was 316 points. He had 431 touches as a rookie. Man I miss those days... at least when you had an early draft pick.

 

I went and looked - James ADP was 1.06 in 1999. When was the last time a rookie RB went in the first round?

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My least favorite is definitely Cedric Benson. That year in our 5 man keeper the top 4 picks were RB, and most of them were pretty bad. I remember JJ Arrington (Cards?) being another and he completely busted. I think Cadillac was another and did well, at least for one year. I ended up holding Benson for a year or two hoping he'd get it. It was a year or two later when the Bears cut him then he finally had some success with the Bengals.

 

Rookie RB are still coveted at the top of our first round (since most better options are protected), people looking for the next Adrian Peterson. Richardson will get that attention in our draft this year.

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Richardson will get that attention in our draft this year.

 

And with good reason. There's not a landing spot in the league where he wouldn't come in and get the lion's share and be a centerpiece of the offense. Watching film of him running at the combine was just eye-popping (and frankly scary to think about being on the opposite end of that beast flying at you).

 

If I'm the Browns, I think you almost have to take him, being one of those types of players who only comes around every 3-4 years (and after having had to pass on Julio, who's another one of those players). Then take BPA or biggest need at 22, and even reach a little for Weeden at the top of the second. I think you can find a plenty good enough WR in the 3rd, while filling huge needs with quality players beforehand.

Edited by delusions of granduer
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yeah as much as I appreciate the analysis, for this year, if I have 1.01, I'm still grabbing Richardson all day...and if I happen to have 1.02-1.04 and he falls to me, I'm doing cart wheels

 

 

You talking any kind of draft, includig redrafts?

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while he wasn't a rookie.... i remember getting ricky watters at great value for his first year playing (missed his rookie year with an injury). i was also a hugh fan of faulk and ft love those backs that could score from any point on the field. at the time our league had adjusted td scoring...so i used to like to draft a workhorse and a homerun type of back

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I went and looked - James ADP was 1.06 in 1999. When was the last time a rookie RB went in the first round?

 

 

That sounds about right. I believe I got him near the end of the 1st round and then got Emmit Smith in the 2nd to lead my way to a championship while I started Doug Flutie a large part of the season at QB. The year before I picked Drew Bledsoe in the first and Charles Johnson (Pittsburgh WR) in the 2nd and learned how important RBs were.

 

While times and scoring systems have changed, that elusive cornerstone RB still spells a lot of success.

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Fred Taylor and Robert Edwards helped down the stretch for a championship in 98, Clinton Portis helped my 3 headed monster in '02 with Travis Henry and Deuce McAllister who were both starting for the 1st time...Anthony Thomas in '01 along with Shaun Alexander who got his break when Ricky Watters went down...Chris Johnson in '08 and I think that was it but there was probably someone else in there I can't recall....

 

now you have too many rookie backs being punished (fantasy-wise) in a RBBC and you really have to rely on an injury to get some shine or get the RB that does more with his touches....

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Drafted C Johnson as a rookie in a keeper league. won 2 championships in row. Then really tanked last year. In a non ppr league that I play in, it is always the team with 2 really strong Rb's that wins. Anyway CJ from a ffb standpoint was my favorite rookie.

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This wasn't a redraft or dynasty league or anything, but I can think back all the way to my first year ever playing fantasy football. It was in college with some other guys in my dorm. There was no such thing as online fantasy football at the time, internet was brand new and barely anyone was on at that time. But I picked up Terrell Davis as a rookie free agent that year and then also got Curtis Martin as a rookie free agent on a coin flip with another guy who was also interested in him. Davis was a late round pick, I want to say 7th round, and Martin was an undrafted free agent I believe. Those rookies would have made for a pretty good dynasty stash had it been a dynasty league!

Edited by Crazysight
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