21 replies to this topic

[Slugs3511]

who people think I could or would get at 1.08 in an all rookie draft, I really need a WR or RB....I would think that LUCK and RGIII would be gone.....so, I was thinking I could get a decent WR.....?


Any opinions?

[delusions of grandeur]

My guess is that you'll be looking at Kendall Wright or David Wilson, though things could change, depending on where everyone goes, but I suspect that the top 6 will be some order of these 6, and if any of these players fall would probably then be your target:

1. Richardson
2. Blackmon
3. Luck
4. RG3
5. Floyd
6. Martin

Though as much as those who like Wright will try to downplay it (the kid had me more impressed than Griffin in a game I watched last year), I have a feeling that the hype is going to sky-rocket, right or not.... If he stays where he's at, it will be because the top 5-6 are just really solid safe picks, and that WR appears to be alot deeper than in the past, perhaps necessitating RB even more early if it's the right one (though DMD's recent "Truth about rookie RBs" article may cast doubt on that).

[bpwallace49]

Depending on need for the teams and who falls where . . . I would see the first round to 8 being (in no particular order)

Richardson
Blackmon
Griffen
Luck
Floyd
Wright
Miller/Wilson/martin (depending on where they land)

So you should get a very solid RB/WR depending on need and your scoring

[flemingd]

A lot of this depends on the real draft of course.  Going to the Jets is going to suck a lot of the value out of WR's, and a RB that lands in PIT, even if a 3rd rounder, could be a top 5 candidate.  Based purely on physical talent though, I would say:

Richardson
1 mile
Blackmon
Floyd
Jeffrey
Wright
Randle
Miller

so at 1.8 you're looking at Doug Martin, David Wilson, Stephen Hill if you are high on him, etc.  Flavor Tier.

I didn't put QB's in because that's based heavily on things you didn't provide like scoring, rosters/team needs, etc.  Slot them in where you see them.

[delusions of grandeur]

bpwallace49, on 12 April 2012 - 02:17 PM, said:

Depending on need for the teams and who falls where . . . I would see the first round to 8 being (in no particular order)

Richardson
Blackmon
Griffen
Luck
Floyd
Wright
Miller/Wilson/martin (depending on where they land)

So you should get a very solid RB/WR depending on need and your scoring

Ah, forgot about Miller, and maybe your correct that situation might be the only big difference in the 3 backs not named Richardson.

flemingd, on 12 April 2012 - 02:29 PM, said:

A lot of this depends on the real draft of course.  Going to the Jets is going to suck a lot of the value out of WR's, and a RB that lands in PIT, even if a 3rd rounder, could be a top 5 candidate.  Based purely on physical talent though, I would say:

Richardson
1 mile
Blackmon
Floyd
Jeffrey
Wright
Randle
Miller

so at 1.8 you're looking at Doug Martin, David Wilson, Stephen Hill if you are high on him, etc.  Flavor Tier.

I didn't put QB's in because that's based heavily on things you didn't provide like scoring, rosters/team needs, etc.  Slot them in where you see them.

Especially after the "year of the QB" and Cam making such a splash as a rookie last year, I have a really hard time thinking Luck and Griffin don't go in top 8, and if I were him, even with needs at WR/RB, if they did I'd be looking to then shop the pick to a QB needy team or take him myself if I could use a QB or could unload the other one, if my other choices were Jeffery, Randle, Hill or maybe even the backs there. I think the QBs are clearly BPA over those guys with ??

Edited by delusions of granduer, 12 April 2012 - 02:36 PM.

[flemingd]

delusions of granduer, on 12 April 2012 - 02:34 PM, said:

Especially after the "year of the QB" and Cam making such a splash as a rookie last year, I have a really hard time thinking Luck and Griffin don't go in top 8,

That's why I put in my footnote.  I didn't say they shouldn't be top 8, I said put them in according to the league's conditions.  If it's a 12 man full dynasty league you're probably right and they might be top 3.  If it's an 8/10 man league or one with depressed QB scoring there can be a ton less pressure to draft one early.  If it's a rookie draft separate from veteran bidding with limited keepers that's a major difference from a full-on dynasty.   He also didn't say he didn't need a QB, he said he thought they would be gone.  There is just not enough info for me to include QB's in the list.

[delusions of grandeur]

flemingd, on 12 April 2012 - 02:50 PM, said:

That's why I put in my footnote.  I didn't say they shouldn't be top 8, I said put them in according to the league's conditions.  If it's a 12 man full dynasty league you're probably right and they might be top 3.  If it's an 8/10 man league or one with depressed QB scoring there can be a ton less pressure to draft one early.  If it's a rookie draft separate from veteran bidding with limited keepers that's a major difference from a full-on dynasty.   He also didn't say he didn't need a QB, he said he thought they would be gone.  There is just not enough info for me to include QB's in the list.

Fair enough, and I didn't mean that to question you, but to say that absent extreme circumstances like you describe, I'd count on them being drafted, and would be doing everything I could to leverage or use them if they didn't, being as solid of QB prospects as we've seen come out, maybe since Manning...

(ETA: and man am I loving having the 1.06 in a league where I could use an upgrade or depth at every position. The late ones in other dynasties, not so much)

Edited by delusions of granduer, 12 April 2012 - 03:13 PM.

[Slugs3511]

Well, to add to this, one team has 3 of the top eight before me to pick...He has Vick, so he may not go QB, he definitely needs a RB, WR, and TE.....so If the others do a QB, I may land Floyd or Wright, because someone will take Richardson if not him and the QBs.....Maybe even Blackmon, considering only four other teams have a pick....

[flemingd]

delusions of granduer, on 12 April 2012 - 03:10 PM, said:

Fair enough, and I didn't mean that to question you,

No worries, hope it didn't sound like I was snapping back, not the intention.  Good points being made all around.

delusions of granduer, on 12 April 2012 - 03:10 PM, said:

(ETA: and man am I loving having the 1.06 in a league where I could use an upgrade or depth at every position. The late ones in other dynasties, not so much)

I think this will change once the actual draft happens.  Once you can visualize Dalton to Randle, for example, or Doug Martin being NYJ's primary carrier and seeing 15-20 touches + red zone every week those names start to look much better.

Slugs3511, on 12 April 2012 - 03:12 PM, said:

Well, to add to this, one team has 3 of the top eight before me to pick...He has Vick, so he may not go QB, he definitely needs a RB, WR, and TE.....so If the others do a QB, I may land Floyd or Wright, because someone will take Richardson if not him and the QBs.....Maybe even Blackmon, considering only four other teams have a pick....

Perfect example of what I mean.  Now all of a sudden you only have 4 other owners to think about.  If those guys have Eli, Stafford, and Rodgers then maybe none of those QB's go and you're looking at the bottom of my list.  Is this a full-on dynasty where once you have a guy he's yours barring release or trade?  I could see all of these owners passing both rookie QB's:
Eli
Romo
Vick
Stafford
Rodgers
Brees
Ryan
Newton
Roethlisberger - assuming Wallace stays

With another list of potentials based on how the draft and preseason look:
Brady - time to think about age
Rivers - can a bunch of rodents do as much damage as one predator?
Schaub - roller coaster rides are getting old but he's got more history than some on this list
Dalton - certainly looks the part after just one year, is he for real?
Fitzpatrick - put up monster numbers two years ago, need faith he can return to that.
Bradford - rookie year looked like a yes, perfect storm last year - this might be more of a franchise concern than player
Freeman - got a big new weapon to play with

When will you be drafting this?

[delusions of grandeur]

flemingd, on 12 April 2012 - 03:37 PM, said:

I think this will change once the actual draft happens.  Once you can visualize Dalton to Randle, for example, or Doug Martin being NYJ's primary carrier and seeing 15-20 touches + red zone every week those names start to look much better.

Well that brings up an interesting conversation in itself, because I've definitely sold myself on a few guys by dreaming too much about what the situation could mean... The most recent one that comes to mind is Delone Carter, but then bam, Manning gets hurt and Brown stops being worthless, and all I'm left with is a guy with mediocre talent stuck in a mediocre situation.

That's not to say that situation doesn't matter, it clearly does whether you have talented guys to leap-frog or can walk into a starting gig, but I've learned to draft the players I love and let the cream rise to the top. The situation is just the cherry in my book, because that can and will change if a guy is good enough (or if the team perenially sucks and can end up drafting good compliments themselves), and there are certainly countless examples of that (for example, Mike Williams, despite sucking last season, rose above Benn who was drafted earlier because of talent, when the situation initially looked subpar for him as a rookie).

[Slugs3511]

The draft is in May, so, I have some time and will know where each player goes.....I don't know if I should go with a QB if Luck and III are still there....I have Schaub and Smith.....

[Ice1]

I doubt if either of those QB's are there at 8 but I would take one for sure. There are several pretty good WR's in this draft. I am not high Jefferey who I rank 7th best WR but you will have time to review all the WR's post draft.

A WR you may get in round two is Quick, He is not real well known to the masses but could be a surprise early NFL selection. He looks to have future WR #1 fantasy potential. There are also several good RB's this draft but where they go will make a big difference IMO.

[Bronco Billy]

Good topic despite it being oriented towards theauthor's own personal situation rather than a general discussion.

I think the top 5 players are pretty clear cut:

Richardson
Luck
RGIII
Blackmon
Floyd

Unless you have a 1.01 team that is very QB poor, I'd guess that Richardson is the top pick in most drafts.  After that, the order is prettymuch a crap shoot.

I'd like to take a minute to address a side topic that is directly related to the top 5 picks.  If you play in a league that is 12 teams or smaller, I think I'd re-look at the top 2 QBs being in FFers' top 5.  I believe the risk is too great to expend a top 5 pick on either of those guys unless a team has absolutely no viable options at QB on its roster and is pretty set at RB and WR.  The reason being that for either Luck of RGIII to pay off in small to medium leagues, they'll have to develop in to top 5/6 FF QBs, and that's a tall order. If you're burning a top 5 rookie pick on a QB instead of a potential stud RB or WR, you simply can't afford to get a FFQB7 or FFQB9 in return - there's a lot of QBs in the NFL right now that either can fit into that range or have a well defined ability to move into that range.  That being the case, that makes Luck or RGIII very risky at high picks.  They could develop into outstanding NFL QBs,but not moving into the top 5/6 FF QBs really doesn't gain a FF team any ground over the teams they are competing against.  That means that Luck and/or RGIII have to move into a FF QB tier that is at or just below Rodgers/Brees/Brady/Stafford/Newton level.  That's an awfully tall order.

That said, for larger leagues this philosophy does not apply as much, as the QB talent will get spread across the league more and even top 10/12 QBs have a lot more value.

Back to the topic at hand.  So the next grouping below those 5 guys would seem to be definitively made up of at least (in no particular order):

Wilson
Martin
Wright

After those 3, the talent level/player issue warts start to crop up, though if drafted into the right spot and getting a leg up on opportunity that might offset some risk; and guys like Jeffrey, Miller, Polk, Randle, Hill, and Fleener could creep into that level.  I think I'd prefer to keep this group at a lower tier of their own because they aren't as talented as the 3 listed above, and I am a firm believer in the axiom that in the NFL, talent will eventually win out.

So at 1.08, you're looking at a faller in the top 5 first, followed by whomever is left of that group of 3.  That's a pretty good position to be in, because I think there is a substantial drop in potential and ability between 1.08 and 1.09.  If two of those 3 are left because of a surprise pick in the top 7, I'd say let your roster situation dictate which of the two you opt for.

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

Hard for me to imagine a QB going in the early part of the 1st round ,, a lot I guess would depend on how many teams in your league though. For me to take a QB in a rookie draft in a 12 team league I would have to believe he would be putting up top 3 nubers in his first 2 years of play

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

Are you in a TE must strt league ?
If so how about  Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

Here is what I have

Richardson
Martin
Wilson
Blackmon
Floyd
Fleener
Luck / RGIII

[G.K.Trey]

Bronco Billy, on 13 April 2012 - 09:12 AM, said:

Good topic despite it being oriented towards theauthor's own personal situation rather than a general discussion.

I think the top 5 players are pretty clear cut:

Richardson
Luck
RGIII
Blackmon
Floyd

Unless you have a 1.01 team that is very QB poor, I'd guess that Richardson is the top pick in most drafts.  After that, the order is prettymuch a crap shoot.

I'd like to take a minute to address a side topic that is directly related to the top 5 picks.  If you play in a league that is 12 teams or smaller, I think I'd re-look at the top 2 QBs being in FFers' top 5.  I believe the risk is too great to expend a top 5 pick on either of those guys unless a team has absolutely no viable options at QB on its roster and is pretty set at RB and WR.  The reason being that for either Luck of RGIII to pay off in small to medium leagues, they'll have to develop in to top 5/6 FF QBs, and that's a tall order. If you're burning a top 5 rookie pick on a QB instead of a potential stud RB or WR, you simply can't afford to get a FFQB7 or FFQB9 in return - there's a lot of QBs in the NFL right now that either can fit into that range or have a well defined ability to move into that range.  That being the case, that makes Luck or RGIII very risky at high picks.  They could develop into outstanding NFL QBs,but not moving into the top 5/6 FF QBs really doesn't gain a FF team any ground over the teams they are competing against.  That means that Luck and/or RGIII have to move into a FF QB tier that is at or just below Rodgers/Brees/Brady/Stafford/Newton level.  That's an awfully tall order.

That said, for larger leagues this philosophy does not apply as much, as the QB talent will get spread across the league more and even top 10/12 QBs have a lot more value.

Back to the topic at hand.  So the next grouping below those 5 guys would seem to be definitively made up of at least (in no particular order):

Wilson
Martin
Wright

After those 3, the talent level/player issue warts start to crop up, though if drafted into the right spot and getting a leg up on opportunity that might offset some risk; and guys like Jeffrey, Miller, Polk, Randle, Hill, and Fleener could creep into that level.  I think I'd prefer to keep this group at a lower tier of their own because they aren't as talented as the 3 listed above, and I am a firm believer in the axiom that in the NFL, talent will eventually win out.

So at 1.08, you're looking at a faller in the top 5 first, followed by whomever is left of that group of 3.  That's a pretty good position to be in, because I think there is a substantial drop in potential and ability between 1.08 and 1.09.  If two of those 3 are left because of a surprise pick in the top 7, I'd say let your roster situation dictate which of the two you opt for.

now say you are in a 16 team league, where would that leave the 2 QB's in your mind.

[Bronco Billy]

G.K.Trey, on 13 April 2012 - 10:53 PM, said:

now say you are in a 16 team league, where would that leave the 2 QB's in your mind.

Likely in the top 5 picks.  Good QBs will have more value and would be more scarce, and a FF owner can afford to have either guy perform like a QB12 or better with upside.  The risk of a "flop" - which is what either Luck of RGIII performing as say a QB8-12 would be in a 10 or 12 team league would be - is greatly diminished.  That's solid starting material in a larger league,where those kinds of QBs would be interchangable marginal starters in a smaller league.

Edited by Bronco Billy, 14 April 2012 - 09:49 AM.

[stevegrab]

We don't do a rookie draft in our league (5 man dynasty keeper). But I'm curious and interested in this discussion nonetheless.

I wonder, if the league is a full on dynasty (players are yours as long as you want) does that change things? Is the prospect of having the next Peyton or Newton make Luck/RG3 more likely to go early in the first round?

[Slugs3511]

Yeah, dynasty til you get rid of them or trade or drop them.....

[satelliteoflovegm]

I have Brees, Stafford, and Fitzpatrick in a 12 team dynasty league and had the 1.03. Figured Richardson goes 1.01 or .02 so I traded out to 1.06 and picked up a couple of 3rd's. I figured I'd do better with quantity over quality. I'm bound to hit someone right? Right?

[Ice1]

satelliteoflovegm, on 17 April 2012 - 05:40 AM, said:

I have Brees, Stafford, and Fitzpatrick in a 12 team dynasty league and had the 1.03. Figured Richardson goes 1.01 or .02 so I traded out to 1.06 and picked up a couple of 3rd's. I figured I'd do better with quantity over quality. I'm bound to hit someone right? Right?

Moving out of 1.3 for a couple of 3rds is not a good plan. You should have demanded a 1st next year to move out of top 3 in this draft. I get many still devalue QB's but in this day in age going after a QB with a 3 point per game potential advantage is pretty big.

I get you don't need one but a player like Stafford as an example is worth way more than 3 spots in the 1st and a couple of 3rds in any trade.

You lost that deal IMO.