24 replies to this topic

[Brentastic]

So I just noticed that AAPL stock is down nearly 10% in just 4 trading days since it's all time high of $644 last Tuesday.  I'm wondering how many 401k portfolios are loaded with AAPL.  Curious if anyone sees this as a foreshadowing of the overall stock or just a much needed correction after a parabolic rise for AAPL.

[WashingtonD]

I doubt very many 401(k) portfolios are loaded with AAPL or really any individual security

I think this is a correction based on the stock rising mostly on brand and momentum versus substance...you are also seeing some investors who got in earlier on the rise take some of their profits

[Brentastic]

WashingtonD, on 16 April 2012 - 01:09 PM, said:

I doubt very many 401(k) portfolios are loaded with AAPL or really any individual security

I think this is a correction based on the stock rising mostly on brand and momentum versus substance...you are also seeing some investors who got in earlier on the rise take some of their profits

I agree that most 401ks are not loaded with individual equities but I imagine most, if not all, equity funds that comprise portfolios are heavy into AAPL.  So the effects of AAPL on one's portfolio may be hidden behind variou equity funds where a large % of those funds could be AAPL.  I don't have a 401k so I would be interested in hearing the % allocation of various equity funds from those on here who do have 401ks.

There are a few BIG stocks that are down large today (PCLN, NFLX, AAPL & GOOG) and I don't think that can be attributed to profit taking.  This has to be large firms pulling out of the big stocks, imo.  I also don't think it's coincidental that this is happening on a day when the DOW is up over 100 points.  The up day in the DOW sort of disguises this among the amateur investor.

[Brentastic]

I just asked my boss to look at his 401k account and tell me the % allocation.  He pointed me toward one of his main funds, the contrafund.  The top 10 stocks in that fund make up 32% of the entire fund and the top 2 (of that top 10) are AAPL and GOOG.  IMO, there are two things at play here: either some big firms know something is happening OR they are trying to create fear so they can buy these stocks back cheaper and ride them to new highs.  Either way, it’s shady at best, imo.

[WashingtonD]

When I say investors, I mean institutional investors - not individual investors who affect nothing (as you kind of indicate)

When it comes to AAPL in mutual funds I'd wager you'd find it in Technology focused funds and in Growth related funds...so you are going to see more of an effect on a younger investor than an older investor who hopefully has shifted their k plan into more conservative investments.

Out of curiosity I asked my financial advisor to weigh in on this and he pointed me to a few sites of interest

http://link.reuters.com/qaq37s

That graphic shows which funds have the highest investment in apple.

So as I look at my portfolio while I don't have any one of these particular funds, I do have say 20% of my k portfolio allocated to growth/technology...so a 10% loss in one equity in 20% of my portfolio (assuming the high end) would be a 2% drop in my total value of portfolio (I could have done that math wrong, it's never been my strong suit)

Edited by WashingtonD, 16 April 2012 - 01:42 PM.

[WashingtonD]

Looks like Contrafund has 9.5% in AAPL and 4.6% in Google, but that makes sense for a "Large Growth Fund"

[Brentastic]

Here are three other higher priced Naz stocks that look pretty ugly today:

ISRG
BIDU
FOSL
AMZN
MELI

[Brentastic]

WashingtonD, on 16 April 2012 - 01:40 PM, said:

When I say investors, I mean institutional investors - not individual investors who affect nothing (as you kind of indicate)

When it comes to AAPL in mutual funds I'd wager you'd find it in Technology focused funds and in Growth related funds...so you are going to see more of an effect on a younger investor than an older investor who hopefully has shifted their k plan into more conservative investments.

Out of curiosity I asked my financial advisor to weigh in on this and he pointed me to a few sites of interest

http://link.reuters.com/qaq37s

That graphic shows which funds have the highest investment in apple.

So as I look at my portfolio while I don't have any one of these particular funds, I do have say 20% of my k portfolio allocated to growth/technology...so a 10% loss in one equity in 20% of my portfolio (assuming the high end) would be a 2% drop in my total value of portfolio (I could have done that math wrong, it's never been my strong suit)

Great input

FYI, the link doesn't work and I'd love to see it.

[SEC=UGA]

I bought AMD in 2003, I believe it was, at +/- 3.40 per share, how are they doing?

[Brentastic]

SEC=UGA, on 16 April 2012 - 01:55 PM, said:

I bought AMD in 2003, I believe it was, at +/- 3.40 per share, how are they doing?

Assuming no splits, it looks like you've doubled your money   Currently trading at $7.79 per share.

[The Irish Doggy]

Apple has some risks that weren't so noticeable a while back.  Off the top of my head - DOJ and the e-book pricing, stock buyback to prevent diluted shares from employee options, and as mentioned some are probably harvesting gains.  Apple makes stuff that people really really want however (unlike Google's Star Trek Visor thing that came out recently).  More likely to go back up than down IMO, but I don't buy the trillion dollar valuation in the next 3 years talk.

[Big Country]

More of a general comment on this, but, while anyone is free to build their portfolio as they see fit, anyone that is positioned in a way that an individual stock can have a significant overall affect on their total portfolio is way too overloaded on htat particular equity and taking on way more risk that I would be comfortable with.

And to me, part of that also comes to picking a fund to be a large part of your overall portfolio if it is also significantly positioned with an individual equity. Too risky for my tastes.

[Brentastic]

WashingtonD, on 16 April 2012 - 01:40 PM, said:

When I say investors, I mean institutional investors - not individual investors who affect nothing (as you kind of indicate)

When it comes to AAPL in mutual funds I'd wager you'd find it in Technology focused funds and in Growth related funds...so you are going to see more of an effect on a younger investor than an older investor who hopefully has shifted their k plan into more conservative investments.

Out of curiosity I asked my financial advisor to weigh in on this and he pointed me to a few sites of interest

http://link.reuters.com/qaq37s

That graphic shows which funds have the highest investment in apple.

So as I look at my portfolio while I don't have any one of these particular funds, I do have say 20% of my k portfolio allocated to growth/technology...so a 10% loss in one equity in 20% of my portfolio (assuming the high end) would be a 2% drop in my total value of portfolio (I could have done that math wrong, it's never been my strong suit)

The other implication here, imo, is that if AAPL continues declining, it's going to pull the rest of the market down with it.  AAPL won't actually be the catalyst for an entire stock market collapse but people will make that correlation when the market begins tanking along with AAPL - although who's to say which will happen first.  

To be clear, I know my long-term forecast is well documented here and I stand by that but I'm not saying it's happening now, necessarily - nor am I saying it's not happening (isn't that convenient).  The one aspect that makes me question whether or not this current correction is anything more than just that (a correction) is lack of volume.  

I did a quick eyeball analysis from a spreadsheet where I've been tracking the open, close, low and high of the day for both the DJIA and S&P - what I found is that of all the major corrections since 2009, the BIG ones always see an obvious increase in average daily volume - in fact 33% more volume daily for weeks/months at a time.  Right now in 2012 we're averaging 76% of avg daily volume.  Put another way the first quarter of 2012 has seen 25% less volume than the historical average of my spreadsheet (2 years).  Anyone who has traded seriously understands the message aided by volume, so regardless of the small sample on my sheet the logic is well documented.

[SheikYerbuti]

There are whispers that AAPL will miss some key numbers in their next earnings report.  Combine that with an insane run up over the last 4 months and it was ripe for profit taking.  Bottom line is, it's one of the cheapest names in the tech sector, and if it pulls back to the point where it's trading at a forward PE of 10-12 there's no way it'll stay below the 50 day average.  If it falls below 500 in the next 2 weeks I'll be adding more.

If they'd split it 10:1 like they should have already, we'd be talking about a $64 stock pulling back to $58, which wouldn't raise an eyebrow.  But, since it's been a decline of $60/share and it's the largest company in the world, and it's far overweighted in the NASDAQ Composite, everyone's paying attention.  

The funny part is, people are constantly saying "I'd buy AAPL if it would just pull back for once."  Now it's giving them the exact opportunity they wanted, and those same people won't pull the trigger, screaming "WHAT'S WRONG WITH AAPL??"  That's why most people suck at investing their own money.

[Caveman_Nick]

I bought it at 245/share...so I figure that as long as I made some money I am doing okay.  That was a couple of years back, so it's done pretty well by me...  

[SheikYerbuti]

Bump.

[WashingtonD]

SheikYerbuti, on 17 April 2012 - 10:21 AM, said:

Bump.

Yeah a bit of a comeback, after this exchange and doing some more reading/talking with my FA last night I actually bought some shares this morning, feeling pretty much the same way as Sheik expressed in his previous post

[Ursa Majoris]

Brent, is there no straw you won't grasp in your endless quest for a collapsing market?  I read about Apple this morning and a 10% reduction in their share price was described as a normal correction, which it clearly is.  There must be a boatload of people cashing in their shares right now.  It doesn't signal the arrival of the four horsemen of the apocalypse.

[Brentastic]

Ursa Majoris, on 17 April 2012 - 12:48 PM, said:

Brent, is there no straw you won't grasp in your endless quest for a collapsing market?  I read about Apple this morning and a 10% reduction in their share price was described as a normal correction, which it clearly is.  There must be a boatload of people cashing in their shares right now.  It doesn't signal the arrival of the four horsemen of the apocalypse.

10% may be a normal correction but when it happens within 4 days, it's not normal, imo.  What happened in the last week is manipulation, imo.  It's not like every AAPL shareholder suddenly woke up and decided now is the time to cash out.  I thought yesterday's price activity among some of the bigger NASDAQ stocks was interesting to say the least and maybe a red flag.

Also, I am not on a quest for a stock market collapse nor am I rooting for one.  IMO, there will be a devastating crash because the global financial system is not stable no matter what mainstream media tells you and instead of addressing the problems, central banks are content in disguising the problems.  The global financial markets are not only unstable but there is a mountain of debt that will be forfeited on.  All I've ever intended is to spread a little truth and knowledge about the reality of the situation.  In hindsight, my fault was that I began that process with a lofty prediction of when the stock market would reveal the depth of this global debt crisis instead of just focusing on the crisis itself and the potential side affects.

[Brentastic]

Brentastic, on 16 April 2012 - 01:38 PM, said:

I just asked my boss to look at his 401k account and tell me the % allocation.  He pointed me toward one of his main funds, the contrafund.  The top 10 stocks in that fund make up 32% of the entire fund and the top 2 (of that top 10) are AAPL and GOOG.  IMO, there are two things at play here: either some big firms know something is happening OR they are trying to create fear so they can buy these stocks back cheaper and ride them to new highs. Either way, it’s shady at best, imo.

Looks like option #2 was in play the whole time.  Those in the know sold AAPL off 2 weeks before earnings and now those same people are (presumably) long from a lower price and what do you know - AAPL beat earnings and is already up $33 in after hours trading.  Shadesters.

[SheikYerbuti]

Boom Shakka Lakka.

[tonorator]

[Square]

So should I just invest in all index funds (Vanguard)?  Or is it all ball bearings nowadays?

[WashingtonD]

Thanks for this thread, one of my better buys in a while

[polksalet]

This is my entire stock portfolio. Yes, I'm flamboyant.

http://money.usnews....portfolio/lpvax