Rookie Values for Dynasty Leagues. Chime in

[wolfpax]

I dont do IDp leagues So Im only listing the offensive players. Andrew Luck QB Brandon Weeden QB Robert Griffin III QB Ryan Tannehill QB David Wilson RB Doug Martin RB Trent Richardson RB A.J. Jenkins WR Justin Blackmon WR Kendall Wright WR Michael Floyd WR

 

IMHO there are several long time starters in this draft. 3 I trust out of the gate. Richardson, Martin, and RG3. Luck will be there just due to the surounding parts I think it will take him a little longer. I am half temted to take them in that order as well. After thoes 4 are taken then is Blackmon or Floyd depending on your point of view. From mine Ill take Floyd.

 

 

Well I didnt see a thread for this so I figured I would start the first one lol

[Bronco Billy]

Richardson is the obvious plum if you don't need a QB. The guy will get a ton of touches and McCoy showed enough last year to where either he or Weeden if he manages to unseat McCoy will do enough to keep teams from simply stacking and compressing the box against him.

 

We talked about Luck & RGIII enough in another thread. If you're in a big league or are completely bereft of any other QBs, they ought to fit in nicely in the upper 5/6 picks. I can't really peg one as having a better chance of success than the other. Tannehill is a little ways behind, not only for talent but also because he'll have to wait to start. He ought to drop to late 1st round/high 2nd round in a dynasty draft. Weeden's age is over-rated. He could still give a NFL team a decade, but McCoy is still in his way. Seems like a natural handcuff for the McCoy owner.

 

I like Blackmon's landing spot a bit better than Floyd's, even though I like Floyd a shade better as a WR. That sounds odd given Jax's QB situation, but JAX will be behind in a lot of games and Blackmon - unless he falls flat on his face, which I don't see happening - is clearly the top target on the team. That spells a ton of opportunity early on. Floys on the other hand will get to learn from Fitz, which shouldn't be underestimated,but also has to compete with him for targets. I don't care how good Floyd is, he'll still be WR2 on that team, and that means less chances. And there's no way AZ is going to win by letting a QB like Kolb target his 2 outside WRs 300+ times. Fitz will get his, which leaves lesser opportunity for Floyd.

 

I like Martin's and Wilson's landing spots. Both will get enough work and both will have relief and get a chance to learn. Given their games, that's not a bad thing. Wilson landing in NY may curtail him for a year or two, but long term in a dynasty and learning from Bradshaw ought to help him, and Bradshaw has shown some signs of wear & tear lately. Coughlin loves getting his RBs enough work to feed two guys. So while Wilson won't be a bell cow, he sure looks to have plenty of chances to be a solid FF contributor. Ditto Martin, who will suffer in goal line situations with Blount with him in TB, but will get plenty of work everywhere else. Not bell cow stuff, but enough to be a low FF RB1/high FF RB 2. Hard to choose one as having a better dynasty opportunity than the other. Martin may start faster, but I think it's a crap shoot as to who has the better career.

 

Wright landed in a great spot for him, since he likely moves immediately opposite Britt in TEN and he ought to get plenty of opportunity to do what he does best, which is seperate quickly in tight spaces and then run after the catch. Completely different WR than Britt, and in this case they ought to complement each other well. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see him get 10 to 15 more targets a year than Floyd in the foreseeable future.

 

As fas as IDP, the 1st round was an utter disaster. Kuechly goes to a great spot for him, but he'll have to divide tackle numbers with some other guys who amass a ton of tackles. That's not good for a guy who will make his mark with tackle numbers and not big plays. Hightower may have walked right into a SLB slot in NE, and that's FF hell even though it may be great for the team. None of the DEs went into really ideal FF slots. Barron will get lots of opportunity in TB and ought to rise up boards. Smith on the other hand landing in MIN may get his weaknesses exposed by the passing team in the NFC North and will have to fight for tackles with somelBs who mount up good numbers.

Edited April 27, 2012 by Bronco Billy

[bpwallace49]

I dont agree with Kendall Wright. I see him as a slot receiver, not a starter unless they aways run 3 wide sets (I dont think they do) as Washington is still the guy with Britt. Poor landing spot for him unless he gets a lot of use like how Minny used Harvin right away.

 

To me the second round WRs and RBs may get better landing spots/situations for immediate production (maybe Randle to St Louis for example, or Fleener to Indy or Miller to the Packers)

[stevegrab]

Talk in Cleveland now is that McCoy is probably gone, possible traded, see the following two stories. Accoridng to my friend who follows lots of this on local sports radio, the word about Browns telling McCoy they weren't picking a QB came from the Browns. The team (coach and/or front office) has had some issues with McCoy and the whole concussion scandal and McCoy's father speaking out seems to have been the end. (Thus the reach for Weeden, who will become the starter with no competition.)

 

It all seems a little crazy to me. Some ask why not keep McCoy and get rid of Seneca Wallace, but it seems they'd rather go the other way (and also figure they can get more for McCoy).

 

http://bleacherreport.com/tb/bgpzr?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=nfl

 

 

http://bleacherreport.com/tb/bgpzs?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=nfl

[Bronco Billy]

I dont agree with Kendall Wright. I see him as a slot receiver, not a starter unless they aways run 3 wide sets (I dont think they do) as Washington is still the guy with Britt. Poor landing spot for him unless he gets a lot of use like how Minny used Harvin right away.

 

 

Guess we're going to have to disagree diametrically on this. I see a lot of Marvin Harrison characteristics in Wright and think he can be a starter on the outside as well as sliding into the slot at times in 3 wides. The guy just has an uncanny knack of getting a step on DBs by using position and his body,and then accelerating away from them once he does. He's sure not the new NFL prototypical outside WR, but that doesn't preclude him from playing well there. IMO he's a very good WR who also happens to be very athletic, as opposing to an outstanding athlete who happens to play WR.

Edited April 27, 2012 by Bronco Billy

[bpwallace49]

Guess we're going to have to disagree diametrically on this. I see a lot of Marvin Harrison characteristics in Wright and think he can be a starter on the outside as well as sliding into the slot at times in 3 wides. The guy just has an uncanny knack of getting a step on DBs by using position and his body,and then accelerating away from them once he does. He's sure not the new NFL prototypical outside WR, but that doesn't preclude him from playing well there. IMO he's a very good WR who also happens to be very athletic, as opposing to an outstanding athlete who happens to play WR.

 

 

fair enough . . .

[Jo]

I think whatever WR the Rams draft at #33 or 39 jumps ahead of Jenkins and possibly Floyd and Wright on my board, especially if the pick is Rueben Randle,, who I think will be a stud. Theres literally a pile of garbage ahead of him on their depth chart. If its Hill, he's a little raw, but eventually... I also like Wright more than Floyd, given the situation. I will always go for the guy who has a better shot at becoming a #1 WR, talent being about equal. Floyd be never be the first option with Fitz there.

Edited April 27, 2012 by Jo

[ABearWithFurniture]

My rankings so far...and I'm not rankingTannehil, Weeden, Wilson or Jenkins yet until after the 2nd/3rd rounds figure out...

 

non-IDP Dynasty league with PPR...

 

1. Richardson

2. RGIII

3. Martin

4. Floyd

5. Blackmon

6. Luck

7. Wright

 

IMHO Blackmon definitely took a big hit to his FF value last night.

Edited April 27, 2012 by ABearWithFurniture

[godtomsatan]

Just to keep up with the negativity....

 

As fas as IDP, the 1st round was an utter disaster. Kuechly goes to a great spot for him, but he'll have to divide tackle numbers with some other guys who amass a ton of tackles. That's not good for a guy who will make his mark with tackle numbers and not big plays. Hightower may have walked right into a SLB slot in NE, and that's FF hell even though it may be great for the team. None of the DEs went into really ideal FF slots. Barron will get lots of opportunity in TB and ought to rise up boards. Smith on the other hand landing in MIN may get his weaknesses exposed by the passing team in the NFC North and will have to fight for tackles with somelBs who mount up good numbers.

 

 

I'm disagreeing, only slightly vehemently. Kuechly could be as high as #6 on IDP dynasty draft boards. Sharing tackles with whom? He's a plug and chug MLB on a team that's has produced fantastic numbers from that position the last couple of years from their backup. I'll agree that Hightower is not in a good position for amassing gaudy points, but he's got IDP starter number potential in that defense. I'm sure there will be some other MLB types that get drafted today that would bump him down the depth chart, but he's roster-able for sure.

 

While clearly not guys you're going to target in your rookie drafts for dynasty leagues in the first or even second rounds, the DL here could be huge. Irvin, Coples, Ingram, McClellin, Jones, and Perry all have chances to prosper (though some could be LB's too). I'm not going to begin to predict which ones, but there seems like a lot of LEO-type versatility and production depending on how they get positioned.

 

The DB's aren't full of too many glamour guys, Barron being the clear top choice of the group here. Gilmore could be interesting, I'll have to look him up a little bit. Smith, looks like he can start right out of the shoot, for sure.

 

IMHO Blackmon definitely took a big hit to his FF value last night.

 

 

I disagree. Blackmon is a PPR machine. He'll do alright in that situation over time. I understand why people may want to draft Floyd over him, but he didn't fall out of the top 5 in dynasties in any way, IMO.

[Bronco Billy]

Just to keep up with the negativity....

 

 

 

I'm disagreeing, only slightly vehemently. Kuechly could be as high as #6 on IDP dynasty draft boards. Sharing tackles with whom? He's a plug and chug MLB on a team that's has produced fantastic numbers from that position the last couple of years from their backup.

 

Beason, Anderson, and Davis. Ever hear of them? They tend to rack up big tackle numbers when they are playing too. How many tackles do you think there are to go around for CAR LBs?

 

I'll agree that Hightower is not in a good position for amassing gaudy points, but he's got IDP starter number potential in that defense. I'm sure there will be some other MLB types that get drafted today that would bump him down the depth chart, but he's roster-able for sure.

 

 

Being rosterable isn't a very commendable assessment for the 2nd MLB off the board. If NE goes to a 4-3 and puts Hightower in the middle, he's got stud numbers written all over him. If he gets stuck at SLB, his value is mediocre, no more. With Mayo and Spikes there already, SLB looks more probable. Are you going to draft him in an IDP 1st round knowing that?

 

While clearly not guys you're going to target in your rookie drafts for dynasty leagues in the first or even second rounds, the DL here could be huge. Irvin, Coples, Ingram, McClellin, Jones, and Perry all have chances to prosper (though some could be LB's too). I'm not going to begin to predict which ones, but there seems like a lot of LEO-type versatility and production depending on how they get positioned.

 

 

Irvin is no more than situational right now. He couldn't stand up against the run against college O-linemen. What do you think the pros will do to him? He'll have to put up massive sacks to even be startable in IDP leagues, and that would be in leagues that reward big plays highly.

 

Coples has his own issues, most notably that he plays well below his physical capability. Now he's going to the 3 ring circus that is NY? The fuse is lit...

 

McClellin? How does he hold up at DE? He's not nearly big enough to be a full timer there. If he plays LB and is capable of doing so? Then he plays SLB with Urlacher and Briggs in place. How has the Bears' SLB produced in IDP leagues?

 

Perry is a tweener who can fit in for GB, but he'll play over the TE - opposite Matthews - in GB. If he's labeled as a DE because he puts his hand on the ground enough, he'll be a stud IDP DE. But until we see that happen, his IDP value is marginal. IDP bench material.

 

Jones with NE. That means being in a rotation. It also likely means a lot of 3-4 work, and 3-4 DEs generally struggle to produce good IDP numbers. He had ten - count 'em, 10 - career sacks playing in a weak college FB conference.

 

Where do you see the rays of optimism?

Edited April 27, 2012 by Bronco Billy

[Kris N]

richarson is the clear cut #1 guy. he is THE guy in cleveland and not many backs will get as many touches as he will be given.

i put RG3 at #2 because he has some weapons to work with and the rushing stats bonus.

I love Floyd and the situation in Arizona. I think we will see zona now look at their O line with the next few picks and help Kolb stay upright. I think that zona passing attack will have a nice season.

Martin got the best spot for him to be a fantasy success. Blount is a bust (i know he was undrafted, but after his rookie year he got expectations and doesnt look ready to ever live up to them). Schiano will use "lil Ray" for the majority of the touches and will be a nice contributor for PPR leagues right away.

Wright also intrigues me. Since this is for dynasty i see him taking over the starting spot with britt by the end of the year, along with locker at qb sometime this year too. That is a great passing attack nucleus to grow together. Great situation for wright.

Luck has the promise and indy will eventually build around him. wayne still has enough left to help him out and hopefully they add a few parts to help luck along. they will be losing a lot which means a lot of garbage time passing (cheap stats but also will have a healthy share of picks)

Blackmon got a bad deal with jax coming up to get him. would have been great to see him paired with sam in STL, but now he goes to Jax in the hopes that gabbert can rebound from a rough (and thats putting it nicely) rookie season. he would have been higher but this is a tough situation to be optimistic about.

[Kris N]

Beason, Anderson, and Davis. Ever hear of them? They tend to rack up big tackle numbers when they are playing too. How many tackles do you think there are to go around for CAR LBs?

 

 

anderson beason and kuechly start. davis hasnt played in two years. i could easily see him being traded or cut. they didnt draft kuechly top 10 to not start right away.

 

i think kuechly, barron and harrison smith should all have solid IDP seasons cuz they went to great situations. I'm anxious to see where mychal kenricks (cal) goes today. he is a tackle machine and should be a big IDP help as long as he goes to a good situation.

[DMD]

...

IMHO Blackmon definitely took a big hit to his FF value last night.

 

 

I completely agree. Worst case scenario was JAC who will want to run most the time and had the #32 passing attack last year. Laurent Robinson is there now as well to take up whatever meager passing exists from Gabbert as well. This is exactly why you never want to be the #1 player in any position because you most often end up on a suck team. Gabbert played in all but week one and yet never had more than 221 yards in any game and only exceeded 200 passing yards in 3 of 15 games. He had eight games with fewer than 150 pass yards. Blackmon in STL would have been very promising. Blackmon in JAC is almost guaranteed to not only have a bad rookie season but will likely stunt his career. There is no way to sugar coat it - Blackmon goes to the worst passing team in the league and that is never going to be a good thing.

 

On the plus side, he will probably beat the best WR from JAC last year (Mike Thomas, 44-415, 1 TD)

[Bronco Billy]

anderson beason and kuechly start. davis hasnt played in two years. i could easily see him being traded or cut. they didnt draft kuechly top 10 to not start right away.

 

 

 

No one is saying Keuchly is a bad player, or that he won't start. He'll step right in as CAR's MLB We're discussing his FF value. When starting, Beason and Anderson both average 135 tackles a season. How does Kuechly put up numbers that make him a FF LB1 under those circumstances? And if Davis is there, he'll rotate in situationally, and when healthy he is a very good tackler.

 

I don't see how Kuechly manages to justify being a top 6 pick in an IDP league knowing that.

[Bronco Billy]

I completely agree. Worst case scenario was JAC who will want to run most the time and had the #32 passing attack last year. Laurent Robinson is there now as well to take up whatever meager passing exists from Gabbert as well. This is exactly why you never want to be the #1 player in any position because you most often end up on a suck team. Gabbert played in all but week one and yet never had more than 221 yards in any game and only exceeded 200 passing yards in 3 of 15 games. He had eight games with fewer than 150 pass yards. Blackmon in STL would have been very promising. Blackmon in JAC is almost guaranteed to not only have a bad rookie season but will likely stunt his career. There is no way to sugar coat it - Blackmon goes to the worst passing team in the league and that is never going to be a good thing.

 

 

I just have to ask, David. Would starting a rookie QB and then not being able to protect him, and then having Mike Thomas as your WR1 have something to do with their poor showing? I'm not saying that Blackmon will catapault JAX into GB/NE territory, but given that he has literally no competition for WR1, and that they'll be behind a lot (read: throwing the ball a ton in the 2nd half of games), doesn't that create some opportunity that other rookie WRs in this class might nort have?

[Kris N]

No one is saying Keuchly is a bad player, or that he won't start. He'll step right in as CAR's MLB We're discussing his FF value. When starting, Beason and Anderson both average 135 tackles a season. How does Kuechly put up numbers that make him a FF LB1 under those circumstances? And if Davis is there, he'll rotate in situationally, and when healthy he is a very good tackler.

 

I don't see how Kuechly manages to justify being a top 6 pick in an IDP league knowing that.

 

 

conner put up solid stats last year. kuechly isnt top 6 IDP dynasty, but end of first round/early 2nd for sure. i think barron and smith are the top 2 IDP players so far because they will both get a lot of tackles on bad defenses.

[Bronco Billy]

conner put up solid stats last year. kuechly isnt top 6 IDP dynasty, but end of first round/early 2nd for sure. i think barron and smith are the top 2 IDP players so far because they will both get a lot of tackles on bad defenses.

 

 

Beason & Thomas were both hurt all last year.

[godtomsatan]

Beason, Anderson, and Davis. Ever hear of them? They tend to rack up big tackle numbers when they are playing too. How many tackles do you think there are to go around for CAR LBs?

 

 

They all put up the monster numbers when they are playing the middle. Let's just assume Davis isn't there any longer, if all three are healthy, Anderson is going to go back to the SLB and that leaves Kuechly either WS and the heir apparent to the middle, or MLB from the start. Slam dunk top IDP on the board.

 

Being rosterable isn't a very commendable assessment for the 2nd MLB off the board. If NE goes to a 4-3 and puts Hightower in the middle, he's got stud numbers written all over him. If he gets stuck at SLB, his value is mediocre, no more. With Mayo and Spikes there already, SLB looks more probable. Are you going to draft him in an IDP 1st round knowing that?

 

 

Hell no he's not a 1st Round pick, but how often are there more than 1 or 2 LB's in a rookie draft that go that early? NE LB's generally spread out enough value to go around. His ceiling is LB2/3, draft him as such, and you're fine.

 

Where do you see the rays of optimism?

 

 

I deleted the DL stuff, because you worse-cased scenario'd every single one of them. Not that each and every one of those things could pan out exactly that way, but I see that there's potential for sack machines in at least two or three of those guys, versatility depending on positioning for others. We're not talking about high end dynasty picks here, but mid-round pieces that could sustain the position for your IDP leagues. Not disagreeing with your opinons at all, but did you feel this way about last year's DL class? This one seems much more talented.

[ABearWithFurniture]

I disagree. Blackmon is a PPR machine. He'll do alright in that situation over time. I understand why people may want to draft Floyd over him, but he didn't fall out of the top 5 in dynasties in any way, IMO.

 

 

I have him at 5 in my list and he won't drop any further than that, but he was 2nd on my list before the draft. He'll be double-covered on a team that can't/won't pass. I'm thinking Larry Fitzgerald a year or two ago when they went through that slough of bad QBing. He's a PPR machine as well...just not in that offense.

[delusions of grandeur]

Redraft I take Floyd over Blackmon (though probably wouldn't touch either until it got really late to take an unexpected flier), because Floyd stands to see some nice single coverage until he makes defenses respect him and not just blanket Fitz.

 

But dynasty, I think people are looking at situation too much, or rather short-term situation. If Gabbert doesn't show some real improvement this year, and is running around like a scared little girl, they're not gonna hesitate to find someone else. Also, their OC is gone, so who knows what direction their offense might begin heading as MJD fades into the sunset.

 

Floyd on the other hand, who talent-wise I don't have far behind Blackmon at all, is going to have Fitz ahead of him on the pecking order, no matter whether they get a good QB or not. I don't see how I can take him over Blackmon in dynasty knowing the certainty of his situation, while Blackmon's could be much more subject to change.

Edited April 27, 2012 by delusions of granduer

[Jackass]

Redraft I take Floyd over Blackmon (though probably wouldn't touch either until it got really late to take an unexpected flier), because Floyd stands to see some nice single coverage until he makes defenses respect him and not just blanket Fitz.

 

But dynasty, I think people are looking at situation too much, or rather short-term situation. If Gabbert doesn't show some real improvement this year, and is running around like a scared little girl, they're not gonna hesitate to find someone else. Also, their OC is gone, so who knows what direction their offense might begin heading as MJD fades into the sunset.

 

Floyd on the other hand, who talent-wise I don't have far behind Blackmon at all, is going to have Fitz ahead of him on the pecking order, no matter whether they get a good QB or not. I don't see how I can take him over Blackmon in dynasty knowing the certainty of his situation, while Blackmon's could be much more subject to change.

 

 

finding someone else is not always so easy.

[Bronco Billy]

finding someone else is not always so easy.

 

 

1) Suck

2) Use high 1st rounder on QB

[Brentastic]

You guys discussing dynasty strategies - are you in dynasty leagues with other huddlers? If so, are you actually detailing your true thoughts on players and rankings? If you answered yes to the above, WHY?

[Brentastic]

You guys discussing dynasty strategies - are you in dynasty leagues with other huddlers? If so, are you actually detailing your true thoughts on players and rankings? If you answered yes to the above, WHY?

 

Don't get me wrong, I appreciate y'all sharing your thoughts and I would love to chime in but I just can't.

[Bronco Billy]

You guys discussing dynasty strategies - are you in dynasty leagues with other huddlers? If so, are you actually detailing your true thoughts on players and rankings? If you answered yes to the above, WHY?

 

 

Yes

 

Because the discussion is interesting, and IMO valuable.