54 replies to this topic

[electricrelish]

LordOpie, on 20 May 2012 - 09:37 AM, said:

Jason, 7 qbs were taken after you chose best and celek and when yhou took your qbs. Did you feel that those two, particularly best, were better than all those qbs, particularly cutler?

In hindsight, I should probably not have selected one of those players and chosen a QB due to the ridiculous QB run.  I'm a fan of Cutler's, but his production over the last two years and reliability has been disappointing.  Perhaps, I selected Best too early, but I didn't have a RB on my roster at that time, and he's the player, who I feel has the ability to dramatically outperform his ADP.  Plus, I'm optimistic about Palmer this year and every time folks try and count out Fitzpatrick, the Amish fury comes out.

[electricrelish]

The Rhinos, on 20 May 2012 - 10:53 AM, said:

Ahhh Mr. Relish I was waiting for a nice retort…….still waiting.  I am just joking around with you because you are the only one I have any history with in this league and it seems your confidence can handle it.  Palmer and Hasselbeck have crazy weapons and we all know Fitzpatrick will be money until the Amish holiday season begins.  If Kolb doesn’t win the job I have a depth problem.  I was really thinking Tannehill would be there at 2.02, he went at 2.01.  If you can get all 3 of those WR on the field at the same time they will be unrivaled.

Berlin, thanks for the kind words.  Love your WR’s.  You’re set for years there.  I like that you have the Steelers run game.  Redman will be a nice fill in this year and you’re covered for next.  I think Bush and Mendenhall were good values where you took them.  I worry a little about Ingram.  I think you are solid at TE with a chance for big numbers from both.  QB’s are decent but the sooner RGIII starts putting up stats, the better.  I actually like Alex Smith more the most.  I was going to take Edwin Baker with my next pick in the rookie draft.

The beauty of a sixteen team draft is we all have strengths and weaknesses and we all made the choice what those would be.  This is going to be an awesome league.  I can't wait to see how this first year plays out.

Yes, I knew you were calling me out, so I didn't want to disappoint you by not responding.  Hasselbeck and Bobby Rainey have your team's name written all over them in a future blockbuster....

[LordOpie]

The Rhinos, on 20 May 2012 - 10:53 AM, said:

The beauty of a sixteen team draft is we all have strengths and weaknesses...

i don't.

[LordOpie]

electricrelish, on 20 May 2012 - 10:57 AM, said:

In hindsight, I should probably not have selected one of those players and chosen a QB due to the ridiculous QB run.  I'm a fan of Cutler's, but his production over the last two years and reliability has been disappointing.  Perhaps, I selected Best too early, but I didn't have a RB on my roster at that time, and he's the player, who I feel has the ability to dramatically outperform his ADP.  Plus, I'm optimistic about Palmer this year and every time folks try and count out Fitzpatrick, the Amish fury comes out.

I hear ya, but you knew you were taking Richardson

[HAUG]

C Johnson at 2.07 and J Rodgers at 9.01 will prove to be the biggest steals of this draft....

[LordOpie]

HAUG, on 20 May 2012 - 04:34 PM, said:

C Johnson at 2.07 and J Rodgers at 9.01 will prove to be the biggest steals of this draft....

In a dynasty start up, 2.07 for a top rb who is 27yo is only fair value.

Cutler is the steal.

[Brentastic]

I just got home from a long weekend of camping and drinking so this is gonna be short.

I basically just want to say that AJG was the #2 WR on my board and I had Calvin and AJG locked in with my #7 overall pick.  When the pick arrived and Calvin was gone, I suddenly had a change of heart and went with Gronk at the last minute.  Still love AJG but my rationale was that there are more elite #1 WRs than there are TEs.  It still stings a little not having AJG but I'm happy with Gronk.  

It's amazing what time will do to your decision making.

E2A: I forgot to add that Jennings (my #1 WR) was 5th on my board for WRs so drafting Gronk with my first pick was definitely the right move for now.

Edited by Brentastic, 20 May 2012 - 11:14 PM.

[berlin]

LordOpie, on 20 May 2012 - 11:06 AM, said:

i don't.

I am glad to know you believe in Collie and Garcon so much. I will use this info in other leagues perhaps...maybe

[LordOpie]

berlin, on 21 May 2012 - 10:31 AM, said:

I am glad to know you believe in Collie and Garcon so much. I will use this info in other leagues perhaps...maybe

I'm not sure if you're being sarcastic or not, so I'll bore you with some info

funny thing is, I was surprised that Collie kept getting past 'relish. He's the one that convinced me during Collie's breakout a couple years back that the kid has what it takes. Everyone was gun shy on him last year due to multiple concussions, but he played all 16 games last year going 54/514 with some of the worst QB play in a long time. If you annualize (for comparison purposes) the last five games when Orlovsky took over, Collie would have 74/768 making him a low-end WR2 in a 16-team league.

And that's with Orlovsky, no offense to him, but Luck is "supposed" to be a lot better.

I wasn't even targeting Collie, but couldn't pass on the value.

With the same QB play, Garcon went 70/950 and again, RG3 is "supposed" to be a lot better than Collins/Painter/Orlovsky. Like Collie, I wasn't even targeting Garcon, but went BPA again.

So, yeah, if you want, use that info and get the under-valued guys.

[The Rhinos]

LordOpie, on 20 May 2012 - 11:06 AM, said:

i don't.

Don't be so hard on yourself.  You must have some strengths.

Seriously your team does look solid at every top to bottom.  The only thing I see is the lack of a proven 20-25 touch a game RB.  If Martin can fill that role you will be in great shape.  I do think Alex Green could surprise.  I like Wallace and Bowe a lot.  I have been back and forth on Garcon.  On one hand he's a good deep threat paired with a great deep ball passer and he put up good numbers with a crappy QB.  On the other hand he's not opposite Reggie Wayne anymore, he may get the best Corner each week.  The Redskins have a solid Def and Run game so I don't know how many targets he'll get.  He had a ton last year.

[LordOpie]

The Rhinos, on 21 May 2012 - 11:54 AM, said:

Don't be so hard on yourself.  You must have some strengths.

Seriously your team does look solid at every top to bottom.  The only thing I see is the lack of a proven 20-25 touch a game RB.  If Martin can fill that role you will be in great shape.  I do think Alex Green could surprise.  I like Wallace and Bowe a lot.  I have been back and forth on Garcon.  On one hand he's a good deep threat paired with a great deep ball passer and he put up good numbers with a crappy QB.  On the other hand he's not opposite Reggie Wayne anymore, he may get the best Corner each week.  The Redskins have a solid Def and Run game so I don't know how many targets he'll get.  He had a ton last year.

well, yeah, i admit my RBs are a huge question mark with my team. My goal with RBs for dynasty is nothing more than a decent, consistent amount of points each week, doesn't even have to more than 6-7 pts. I try to win with my WRs first and foremost, then good consistent play from QB and TE. I never try to win in year one, but if I look competitive, then I'll use future draft picks to improve my roster now.

I agree about Alex Green, but think that his recovery, like most, will take more than a year.

As I mentioned previously, you got The Steal of the Draft in Cutler. if he puts up numbers like I think he can, with the rest of your solid team (rice, welker, austin, dejax, vernon, plus others), you'll make the playoffs easily.

[WashingtonD]

Was a fun draft, I really liked how it played out for my team to be able to compete in the new term but at the same time stockpile some folks that I think will be good future assets

First Round - I traded my first round pick next year to get one of the top 4 players - figuring it was Rice, Calvin Johnson, McCoy, and Arian Foster (in that order). When Calvin Johnson was there for me though I blinked and went for McCoy, figuring I could more likely find startable depth at WR than at RB. Plus McCoy is such a threat from a receiving and a TD stand point that when he was there it was too much to pass.

Second Round - I was hoping for Mike Wallace, then I thought pairing Forte or Peterson with McCoy would be great, but all three went before I could grab them. Roddy White gives me 2 solid years of elite PPR performance.

Third Round - I take Welker with this pick if he's there. He gets sniped and I happily move this pick to Relish to acquire a bunch of rook picks (two use for later moves) and more importantly an extra vet draft pick in the top 8 rounds.

Third Round - Sniped again! I really wanted Hernandez here, Colston as my WR2 again for the next 2 years (like with White) gives me a nice early window for success here

Fourth Round - Roethlisberger was the last high tier QB left, I didn't want to get stuck with a below average starter so I had to take him here.

Fifth Round - Fred Davis, you need a solid TE in a 1.5 PPR league and I think Davis with RGIII will be that much  more dangerous if he can stay on the field and not get suspended

Extra 5th Round - Frank Gore. I agonized between Turner and Gore here...went with Gore despite the fact he has more competition, I think he's got the better chance for higher end numbers...again a 2 year starter for me probably

6th Round - Mike Williams is suffering from all those owners who took him in the 2nd round last year. His recpetions and yards were identical to his rookie campaign, just the TDs down. I think he benefits from Freeman improving and from Vincent Jackson stretching the field. Great WR3

7th Round - Sam Bradford - they gave him some decent weapons, if he plays to his ability this was a steal for a QB 2 and perhaps my long term QB of the future . If not he's more than a serviceable back up


9th - Ed Dickson - last of the good young TEs, had a breakout PPR year, doesn't have to score a lot of TDs if he catches 70-80 passes at 1.5 PPR I'm golden with my second TE

10th - James Starks - last of the RBs that has a chance at meaningful carries, depserately wanted Brandon LaFel here but GMBRKR sniped me.


11.04 - Jerome Simpson. Need some younger WRs, Simpson fits the bill, if he can stay out of trouble might be a solid WR in Minnesota, good risk at 11.04

12 - GBP Defense - I think they will improve and always dangerous for INTs and Sacks

13 - Mike Tolbert - fell huge with the trade to CAR, but I believe htey will move DeAngelo or Stewart and Tolbert will be a very serviceable RB3/4



15th - Dexter McCluster - ummmm I was really really drunk. anyone want him?
16th - Mike Thomas - may benefit from being back in the slot if Gabbert can get it together or Henne takes over he could have real PPR value especially as WR 4/5

18th - Luke Stocker - TBBs starting TE next year, and this year once Dallas Clark inevitably get's injured, good DTS stash

[Henry Muto]

The Rhinos, on 20 May 2012 - 11:53 AM, said:

The beauty of a sixteen team draft is we all have strengths and weaknesses...

LordOpie, on 20 May 2012 - 11:06 AM, said:

i don't.

Don't be modest now tell us how you really feel.

[LordOpie]

Henry Muto, on 27 May 2012 - 06:23 PM, said:

Don't be modest now tell us how you really feel.

i am fully confident that my team will finish with a better record than your team each year for the next five years!

[berlin]

Wash D's post about his draft rewind very interesting and makes me question my opinions on some of those players.
M Williams, F Davis, Gore - all win now players if they produce but guys I stayed away from due to some risk. I own M Williams in another dynasty and may be a solid hold for me now.

If I could redo -- I would have snagged J Maclin in the 3rd round to pair with AJG, Dez, Brown - and told the RB position to take a hike.

[Henry Muto]

LordOpie, on 27 May 2012 - 08:37 PM, said:

i am fully confident that my team will finish with a better record than your team each year for the next five years!

Well it certainly helps when peolpe are handing you future 1st round picks for nothing and handing you top 3 rookie RB's like Wilson for reaches like Brandon Weeded (undrafted in my other dynasty league) but you certainlly qualified yourself as a jackass with your latest comments.

Here are some of the most redonkulous trades from our draft for Opie...trades that no one had any business making.

If we were to land these kind of trades we could make jackass statements like you did above as well.

• Kronsteen | Opie gave up Year 2012 Draft Pick 2.03; Year 2013 Round 2 Draft Pick from Kronsteen | Opie
  
• Casino Royale with Cheese | PhillyPhan311 gave up Year 2012 Draft Pick 2.06; Year 2013 Round 1 Draft Pick from Casino Royale with Cheese | PhillyPhan311

Give up a 1st round future pick to move up 3 freaking spots ?  Are you kidding me ?

• Quarrel | Brentastic gave up Freeman, Josh TBB QB; Year 2013 Round 1 Draft Pick from Quarrel | Brentastic
  
• Kronsteen | Opie gave up Dalton, Andy CIN QB

Freeman is at worst equal to Dalton but in my view Freeman is better than Dalton making this trade for adding in a free 1st insane

• Kronsteen | Opie gave up Ponder, Christian MIN QB; Year 2013 Round 2 Draft Pick from Vesper Lynds | ElectricRelish & Henry Muto
  
• Vanquish | BearBroncos gave up Weeden, Brandon CLE QB; Year 2013 Round 1 Draft Pick from Vanquish | BearBroncos

Ponder/Weeden swap gets you a free 1st.  These QB's equaly suck how somone throws in a free 1st is beyond me.

• Kronsteen | Opie gave up Weeden, Brandon CLE QB;Turbin, Robert SEA RB
  
• Rolls-Royce Phantom | Phantom Menace gave up Wilson, David NYG RB

This one takes the cake Wilson is a top 6 rookie pick while Weeden is worth a 6th ROUND pick in most leagues.  16 teams doesn't turn a 6th round pick into a 1st round pick.  A pile of crap is still a pile of crap no matter how many teams are in the league.

Edited by Henry Muto, 28 May 2012 - 07:18 PM.

[WashingtonD]

Henry Muto, on 28 May 2012 - 07:09 PM, said:

Well it certainly helps when peolpe are hadnding you future 1st round picks for nothing and handing you top 3 rookie RB's like Wilson for reaches like Brandon Weeded (undrafted in my other dynasty league) but you certainlly qualified yourself as a jackass with your latest comments.

It's funny when I quote Muto's post there is a lot of other stuff there lol

Anyways what sort of other dynasty league is Brandon Weeden undrafted? His ADP is 22 in non IDP drafts. Even in a 12 teamer that makes him a 2nd round pick. After RGIII and Luck he's the most pro ready QB in the draft and the most likely to start game 1 for a team besides those guys. I'm not for a moment defending the string of trades Opie pulled off to acquire Wilson, at the same time saying Weeden went undrafted in your dynasty league makes me wonder about the quality of opponents you are used to playing against

[WashingtonD]

Henry Muto, on 28 May 2012 - 07:09 PM, said:

This one takes the cake Wilson is a top 6 rookie pick while Weeden is worth a 6th ROUND pick in most leagues.  16 teams doesn't turn a 6th round pick into a 1st round pick.  A pile of crap is still a pile of crap no matter how many teams are in the league.

Where do you get your data from? I breezed through ADP data from 3 different sites and never saw Weeden lower than a 24 in non IDP which is a (low) 2nd rounder in 12 team dynasty leagues. Again not arguing with your point, but your supporting evidence is curious to me

[Henry Muto]

I know you guys hate when I bring up the "high stakes leagues" but I am basing this off several $750 to $1,250 drafts including 2 leagues I play in.  I think playing in $750 league's is pretty good competition no ?  I know money doesn't make the player but most people who throw that kind of money into an entry free tend to know what they are doing (yes a few still don't but the majority does).

Anyway the rules are different which is why the ADP is much different since we don't have a taxi squad the 20 man roster we have is what we have to carry throughout the season so teams are not going to waste a precious roster spot on a guy like Weeden or Tannehill, ect.

In my 2 $750 leagues I play in Wilson was taken at the 5 and 6 spots and Weeden went undrafted in both and sits on the waiver wire.

Anyway kudoes to Opie for making those trades and making his team better.  The key to dynasty is finding people who will give you what you want in trades and the more power to those who can pull it off.  I am not usually one who can pull off those kind of deals.

In any event to each their own this is just my own opinion obvisouly every one has their own and in a year or two I may be proven very wrong about some of those deals it happens often in dynasty.

http://www.myffpc.co...id=85&Itemid=86 - rookie draft data from several "high stake leagues"

Edited by Henry Muto, 28 May 2012 - 08:06 PM.

[WashingtonD]

So hard to compare apples to apples in a draft where rookies go in same draft as vets, but let's look at the leagues you are referencing in 2012:

Undrafted 3 leagues
Drafted 19th round, Drafted 20th round

So he was drafted in 2 out of 5 leagues.

But these are 12 team leagues, the difference in the value of QB from a 12 team league where you have on average 8 starting QBs on waivers and 16 team leagues where you have on average no starting QBs on waivers is significant.

In any case thanks for the extra data points, always useful to see how other leagues are run and how players are valued
D

As a side note all those leagues are included in the ADP data that I was referencing as it was pulled from MFL

Edited by WashingtonD, 28 May 2012 - 08:03 PM.

[Henry Muto]

The leagues you were looking at were startups.  The 2010 and 2011 leagues would be the rookie only leagues. (plus FA's not on rosters)

I agree you can't compare them to a league like ours since there is no taxi squad and only 12 teams compared to 16.

Still I can't see Weeden worth a 1st round pick hey but that is just me but what do I know I never played in a 16 team league before the QB "value" has gone way up in this league than any 12 team league.

[LordOpie]

It makes me very happy to be able to aggrivate muto

[Brentastic]

Henry Muto, on 28 May 2012 - 07:09 PM, said:

• Quarrel | Brentastic gave up Freeman, Josh TBB QB; Year 2013 Round 1 Draft Pick from Quarrel | Brentastic
  
• Kronsteen | Opie gave up Dalton, Andy CIN QB

Freeman is at worst equal to Dalton but in my view Freeman is better than Dalton making this trade for adding in a free 1st insane

Good thing none of us can predict the future with even 50% accuracy.  That being said, obviously my opinion is that in the very near future, Dalton will prove to be head-and-shoulders above Freeman as far as FF QBs go.  Everyone has an opinion and I'm fine with you expressing yours, but we have yet to see the full potential of either of these 2 QBs.  So to say one guy is better than the other this early in their careers is only guessing.

[delusions of grandeur]

Sorry all, I kinda got busy and then ended up having to put my dog down last week (I've been preparing for it for about a year now, but he finally got to the point that he was too weak to walk). Spending the long weekend at the lake with my family helped, but probably made it tougher to get back to reality today.

For now I'm gonna have to forego my team evaluations, but I see that Opie has given his steals of the draft as well. Maybe I'll revisit this thread when the offseason boredom sets in again, but feel free to continue to give your own team evaluations, and I'll try to give my two cents on more players to keep some dialogue going.

[Brentastic]

Sorry to hear about your dog, D.o.G.  My dog is going to be 8 this fall and I'm not looking forward to the day when I have to mourn his passing.

Stay strong, brother.