Hakeem Nicks - Broken Foot

[Brentastic]

You are out of your mind if you think Nicks is a top 3 WR. Nicks is fool's gold.

 

I don't think so. Again, I haven't really got into re-draft mode yet so Nicks is fresh in my mind as a solid top 5 in dynasty rankings. But just thinking out loud here and excluding Calvin since he's my clear cut #1, Nicks is one of the safest WRs out there, imo. Eli locks onto either him or Cruz and that's basically it. Nicks is just starting to break out and has a higher ceiling than most other popular top 10 WRs other than Calvin. Eli is in his prime and will keep slinging the rock.

 

Fitz - has QB concerns

Jennings - plays on a team with 2 other primary passing options and a QB who spreads it around to everyone.

Welker - getting older and they also have more weapons and a QB who notoriously spreads it around

Roddy - had some concentration issues last year and Ryan isn't as good as Eli

Steve Smith - way past his prime could hit the wall anytime, another risk is Cam hitting the soph slump

Wallace - contract dispute and isn't that 80+ catch guy yet

Marshall - lots of uncertainty on a new team, has character issues and isn't really a TD machine. Also drops a lot

Green - soph slump? plays in a tougher defensive division

Colston - too many knee surgeries and Brees throws to everyone

 

Obviously everyone has their own rankings but to say I'm out of my mind having Nicks in the top 3 is hyperbolic at best. Who would you take ahead of him and why? When it comes to drafting in the first 2-3 rounds, safety first followed by upside. There aren't many WRs as safe a pick as Nicks. He's one of a handful WRs just hitting their primes with a pro-bowl QB throwing him the rock

[Chief Dick]

Dwayne Bowe is in the top 3, IMO.

[Scorcher]

I don't think so. Again, I haven't really got into re-draft mode yet so Nicks is fresh in my mind as a solid top 5 in dynasty rankings. But just thinking out loud here and excluding Calvin since he's my clear cut #1, Nicks is one of the safest WRs out there, imo. Eli locks onto either him or Cruz and that's basically it. Nicks is just starting to break out and has a higher ceiling than most other popular top 10 WRs other than Calvin. Eli is in his prime and will keep slinging the rock.

 

Fitz - has QB concerns

Jennings - plays on a team with 2 other primary passing options and a QB who spreads it around to everyone.

Welker - getting older and they also have more weapons and a QB who notoriously spreads it around

Roddy - had some concentration issues last year and Ryan isn't as good as Eli

Steve Smith - way past his prime could hit the wall anytime, another risk is Cam hitting the soph slump

Wallace - contract dispute and isn't that 80+ catch guy yet

Marshall - lots of uncertainty on a new team, has character issues and isn't really a TD machine. Also drops a lot

Green - soph slump? plays in a tougher defensive division

Colston - too many knee surgeries and Brees throws to everyone

 

Obviously everyone has their own rankings but to say I'm out of my mind having Nicks in the top 3 is hyperbolic at best. Who would you take ahead of him and why? When it comes to drafting in the first 2-3 rounds, safety first followed by upside. There aren't many WRs as safe a pick as Nicks. He's one of a handful WRs just hitting their primes with a pro-bowl QB throwing him the rock

 

 

I agree with your assessment on Roddy and I think Julio will take even more away this year. Nicks is great when healthy, but healthy is the issue. He gets hurt every year. Last year I had Roddy and Nicks and barely made it to the playoffsI ended up 3rd. I had big hopes at the beginning of the season. What about Decker and Thomas, do you see them coming into play?

[Whiskey Pimp]

I agree with your assessment on Roddy and I think Julio will take even more away this year. Nicks is great when healthy, but healthy is the issue. He gets hurt every year. Last year I had Roddy and Nicks and barely made it to the playoffsI ended up 3rd. I had big hopes at the beginning of the season. What about Decker and Thomas, do you see them coming into play?

 

 

How about Andre Johnson?

[Scorcher]

How about Andre Johnson?

 

 

He is another receiver who gets injured a lot. He missed a lot of time last year. There were a few he started and didn't finish.

Edited May 25, 2012 by Scorcher

[MTSuper7]

I don't think so. Again, I haven't really got into re-draft mode yet so Nicks is fresh in my mind as a solid top 5 in dynasty rankings. But just thinking out loud here and excluding Calvin since he's my clear cut #1, Nicks is one of the safest WRs out there, imo. Eli locks onto either him or Cruz and that's basically it. Nicks is just starting to break out and has a higher ceiling than most other popular top 10 WRs other than Calvin. Eli is in his prime and will keep slinging the rock.

 

Fitz - has QB concerns

Jennings - plays on a team with 2 other primary passing options and a QB who spreads it around to everyone.

Welker - getting older and they also have more weapons and a QB who notoriously spreads it around

Roddy - had some concentration issues last year and Ryan isn't as good as Eli

Steve Smith - way past his prime could hit the wall anytime, another risk is Cam hitting the soph slump

Wallace - contract dispute and isn't that 80+ catch guy yet

Marshall - lots of uncertainty on a new team, has character issues and isn't really a TD machine. Also drops a lot

Green - soph slump? plays in a tougher defensive division

Colston - too many knee surgeries and Brees throws to everyone

 

Obviously everyone has their own rankings but to say I'm out of my mind having Nicks in the top 3 is hyperbolic at best. Who would you take ahead of him and why? When it comes to drafting in the first 2-3 rounds, safety first followed by upside. There aren't many WRs as safe a pick as Nicks. He's one of a handful WRs just hitting their primes with a pro-bowl QB throwing him the rock

 

 

Yeah, I take it back. You're not out of your mind. Saying he's #3 on your list is really saying that he's #1 among the tier 2 WRs out there in your book. I'd agree that he's tier 2, but I generally think he will get drafted before I'd take him. Fool's gold. Looks good, but isn't really as valuable as we think and not worth the price. I'd rather pass on a WR if Nicks was the best available in the 2nd round and try to get stronger at RB (or tier 1 QB) instead. There are a lot of good mid round values at WR in my opinion this year. I think any one of Kenny Britt, Demaryious Thomas, Stevie Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Dwyane Bowe, Dez Bryant, etc. doesn't represent too significant a downgrade from Nicks but costs a LOT less in some cases. I just don't see Hakeem Nicks as likely being a good value pick in most drafts if he's taken in the 2nd round, in part because of his injury history and in part because he disappears in stretches when Eli locks into other guys like Cruz. Of course, with no Manningham there, it does mean there might be more targets for Cruz and Nicks, or it also might mean that Eli finds another new toy to throw to. Who knows? Other than Vincent Jackson last year, I don't recall there being a WR that was more feast or famine than Nicks. But I probably have a selective memory... It'll be good to see Nicks back in the fold in August. The time away from camp and practice probably won't hurt him much, but it's hard to say.

 

I think I've just guaranteed that Nicks will put up 93-1310-11 this year with this post.

[ajh2]

Here is my reply to this whole debate.

 

What makes a Number 1 WR? How about very few games with less than 6 points score in a game using Standard scoring, i.e. 10yds = 1pt, TD = 6pts, etc. Here is the list of the top 20 WRs from last year. Sorry, Andre does not make it because of his injury. He has a history of missing games due to injury. I am only showing Names, Yards, TDs, Games less than 6pts, and Games greter than 12pts. In other words, a Number 1 WR is consistent at getting enough points to help you win.

 

 

 

PLAYER REC YARDS TDS GAMES >= 6POINTS GAMES > 12POINTS

Calvin Johnson 1437 15 1 9

Wes Welker 1518 9 4 8

Victor Cruz 1358 8 4 6

Jordy Nelson 1101 12 5 9

Larry Fitzgerald 1262 8 2 5

Steve Smith, CAR 1308 6 4 8

Roddy White 1227 8 1 6

Mike Wallace 1182 8 3 7

Percy Harvin 852 6 3 5

Vincent Jackson 1077 8 8 5

Brandon Marshall 1177 6 4 6

A.J. Green 1031 7 4 4

Greg Jennings 949 9 5 6

Hakeem Nicks 1116 6 3 5

Dez Bryant 858 9 3 6

Dwayne Bowe 1066 5 4 4

Nate Washington 931 6 5 4

Marques Colston 998 6 6 3

Laurent Robinson 797 9 6 4

Stevie Johnson 964 6 5 4

 

Note: Passing and Running performances have been deleted, 2PT conversions have been deleted, Return TDs have been deleted. Missed games due to injury counted as a "0" - Zero and were held against the player accordingly. Why - Had to have another player play, often of lesser quality and performance.

 

The top 3 WRs in order are Calvin, Roddy White, and Fitzgerald in terms of fewest "less then 6 points per game" with the tie breaker being Total Points and "more than 12points per game". Nicks is not even in the Top 10 or Top 12. He is 14TH. WRs missing from this list Andre Johnson, Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, Miles Austin, and Sidney Rice.

 

To me, this makes it clear that Nicks is at best a Number Two WR at best because of injury history.

 

P.S. Sorry, tried to get it to in neat rows, failed.

Edited May 25, 2012 by ajh2

[godtomsatan]

Here is my reply to this whole debate.

 

What makes a Number 1 WR? How about very few games with less than 6 points score in a game using Standard scoring, i.e. 10yds = 1pt, TD = 6pts, etc. Here is the list of the top 20 WRs from last year. Sorry, Andre does not make it because of his injury. He has a history of missing games due to injury. I am only showing Names, Yards, TDs, Games less than 6pts, and Games greter than 12pts. In other words, a Number 1 WR is consistent at getting enough points to help you win.

...

 

To me, this makes it clear that Nicks is at best a Number Two WR at best because of injury history.

 

 

8 names on that list have more yards than Nicks.

11 names have more TDs than Nicks.

3 names scored less than 6 points LESS than Nicks.

10 names scored more than 12 points MORE than Nicks.

 

How does that make him a #2 WR at best?

[ajh2]

GodtomSatan,

 

Why is Nicks at best a Number Two?

 

1.) WRs missing from this list Andre Johnson, Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, Miles Austin, and Sidney Rice. I also forgot Brandon Lloyd. WRs who could play better.

2.) Injury history that keeps him missing games. Games missed over the last three years - 2009 - 2 games, 2010 - 3 games, 2011 - 1 game

3.) Dallas has improved their Secondary. Some of his big games have come at the expense of Dallas 1ST game - 163 yard, 2ND game - 76, 1TD

4.) Cruz was the #1 WR - NYG.

5.) Only 6 TDs which means that his points scored swings wildly. Only scored in 5 games. Week 13 - GB with 2TDs.

6.) Four WRs tied with 3 games less than 6 points - Mike Wallace, Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, and Dez Bryant - Order of Total Points, Order of 12 + points per game - Mike Wallace - 7, Dez Bryant - 6, Percy Harvin - 5 (tie broken by Total Points), and then Nicks - 5.

7.) Two games saved from under 6 points per game by TD. Week 2 - STL - 38,1 and Week 10 - SF - 41,1.

8.) Two games barely over 60 yards - Week 8 - MIA with 67 yards and Week 11 PHI with 69 yards.

9.) Columns edited out Passing, Rushing, and Return TDs, and 2-Point Conversions. So Total Points does not equal TDs reported here especially for Percy Harvin with a Return and a Rush TD with 332 rushing yards. Harvin has 8 TDS total and only 6 TDs via Receiving.

 

And now this foot injury which must fully heal before he can even practice, if it does not fully heal on time, he could either break it again or be delayed for part of the season up to 3 games. I take this injury as a warning and have downgraded him from the top 10 for now. I await his foot being completely healed and him exercising and practicing before evaluating him for further rankings.

 

I value consistency of point production highly not just total points.

Edited May 27, 2012 by ajh2

[bushwacked]

Nick's situation isn't much different than Greg Jennings. Fine WRs, and worthy as a WR1 no doubt, but with a somewhat limited ceiling due to a QB who likes to fling the ball all over the field to a multitude of different receiving options.

 

 

Jennings - plays on a team with 2 other primary passing options and a QB who spreads it around to everyone.

 

 

You owe me a coke.

 

I meant to say isn't instead of is so I edited....but, while Hicks seems to have more of that freaky athletic ability than Jennings, he still has a QB that has shown not only the ability, but a willingness, to spread the ball around to everyone on his team, theoretically limiting potential production.

 

I'm not saying I would pass on Hicks or Jennings early on the draft, but the reaching for WR value has kind of become the new thing (last 5-6 years or so) when it really isn't there. I'd be all over Megatron and Fitz (if he had a NFL starting QB throwing to him), after the first crop of RB studs in the first round.

 

But....In my high stakes league experience, I did a bit of an evaluation on teams who took the 1st and 2d WR in the draft, and generally their success rate sucked. But, I don't think it's necessarily because they took a WR early, but because the stronger teams have the best picks rounds 4-8 no matter who they picked in round 1, and most owners don't pick WR's in the first round.

 

I would mention that Randy Moss via his career year can carry a team to a championship, but despite the advancements in the fantasy game, so can a QB1,RB1, or RB2 on any given year.

 

And typically through rounds 4 through 8 you are going to find WRs who can overcome their ADP moreso than RBs and even QBs.

[bushwacked]

Dwayne Bowe is in the top 3, IMO.

 

 

I'm curious why you believe this CD as you've had some legit homer info.

 

Bowe has been a staple of mine in re-drafts leagues ever since he was a rookie, up until last year, when he was getting picked about where he belongs.

[godtomsatan]

Why is Nicks at best a Number Two?

 

 

I don't disagree with the sentiment per se, but I my comment was directed at the fact that you threw out a bunch of stats that could easily be interpreted that he falls securely in the #1 WR camp.

 

I'm not going to argue about downgrading him based on this injury, but I've found that I'm reluctant to name a whole heck of a lot more than 12 guys who I think have better odds of outperforming him in 2012.