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Why can't short QB's succeed?


Seahawks21
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I've been pondering this since Seattle drafted Russell Wilson, and I just can't come up with a clean answer.

 

The obvious would be that he can't see over the line. But Brees doesn't appear to have trouble with this. Russell Wilson had the biggest line in the NCAA last season and it didn't appear to bother him any.

 

I would guess most short QB's have small hands, but this also is not the case with Wilson. He also had very few balls batted down last year (2 if I remember correctly). There has to be a reason that a short QB would have a major disadvantage, since they are rarely even drafted after successful college careers. Anybody have any insight?

 

Also, what are your general thoughts on Wilson's pro prospects?

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I've been pondering this since Seattle drafted Russell Wilson, and I just can't come up with a clean answer.

 

The obvious would be that he can't see over the line. But Brees doesn't appear to have trouble with this. Russell Wilson had the biggest line in the NCAA last season and it didn't appear to bother him any.

 

I would guess most short QB's have small hands, but this also is not the case with Wilson. He also had very few balls batted down last year (2 if I remember correctly). There has to be a reason that a short QB would have a major disadvantage, since they are rarely even drafted after successful college careers. Anybody have any insight?

 

 

My guess is both of the major points you brought up loom somewhat large (zing!) in this discussion. Though, throwing lanes aren't necessarily geared towards a QB's height. The one thing you don't mention is the pure ability to withstand the physical toll on the body that shorter guys with mobility simply don't have. He may be giving up 3-4 inches on a lot of QB's, but that's also the ability to carry 20-30 lbs. on his frame.

 

Also, what are your general thoughts on Wilson's pro prospects?

 

 

He was drafted by an organization without a franchise QB in the 3rd Round. The QB's drafted in front of him that went to teams without a significant veteran presence all are expected to start fairly quickly if not right away (Luck, Griffin, Tannehill, Weeden), and you have to imagine that Osweiler was drafted to be groomed to succeed Manning in a couple of years. Of the guys who went after him, only Ryan Lindley ended up in a situation without an established QB.

 

If you use that as a basis, he was either the last of the "future starter" QBs or the first of the "we don't know what we got" guys.

 

In the last 20 years, four QBs under 6'2" were drafted in the first three rounds. Erick zeier was a career backup with a start here and there, Drew Brees is a HOF player, Pat White isn't even in the NFL any longer, and Colt McCoy looks like he's getting replaced and on towards his future as a backup in the league.

 

If you use that as a basis, he's got a 25% chance of being a bust, a 25% chance of being a career backup, a 25% chance of having a relatively unsuccessful run as a starting QB, and a 25% chance at a Hall of Fame career.

 

More or less, no one can adequately project Wilson's career at this point. Let's see him run an offense against other players. He's got a slightly better chance than being a career backup, based on when he was drafted and where he ended up. However, there's a lot more Jeff Blake's and Colt McCoy's and Rex Grossman's than there are Drew Brees. And all of those guys have 1 to 2" on Wilson and probably 10-15 lbs each.

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I think GTS's 2nd-to-last statement is accurate in that there are clearly more Blakes, McCoys, and Grossmen than Breeses; however, I think the fairest assessment is "do short QBs bust at a HIGHER RATE than quote-unquote "ideal" QBs?"

 

 

Any search of Pro Football Reference gives you a number of QBs 6'1" or under; with varied success rates...and admittedly, most of them sucked, but when you get down to it, when you do the math of 3 QBs per team, probably 75% of the #2s are backups for a good reason (in short, they suck), and 50% of the starters are by definition below average, most NFL QBs "suck" by any measure.

 

 

Given that the writeup on Wilson is that EVERYTHING, aside from height, was ideal, I'd say he has as good a chance as any 3rd rounder to succeed - it's 2 inches below "acceptable," it isn't as if they're sending Peter Dinklage out there behind center.

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I'm admittedly biased being a Badger, but I like Wilson's chances a lot. He was very good at NC State, but he turned it up a notch at WIS. He absolutely thrived in that pro offense. To say he can't see over the O-line is silly. WIS had an O line that was as big or bigger than most pro O lines, and DLs in the Big 10 ain't exactly shrimps either. He'll have to do what every pro QB has to do - work his way into throwing lanes. QBs that are 5 inches taller still can't throw through upraised arms of DLs. I swear to God, you'd think the guy is so short and immobile to hear some people talk about him that he's going to throw half his passes into the back of his O lines' helmets. This kid is as close to being pro-ready as Luck, and probably moreso than Griffin and Tannehill. He'll struggle in his learning curve like almost every rookie QB who has come into the league has. But I think he has all the goods he needs to be a quality starting QB in the NFL.

 

Wilson's biggest hurdle, IMO, is going to be Flynn, because I happen to think Flynn is the real deal. A bonafide decade-long quality starter at the NFL level. The coaching he got in GB filled in almost all the holes in his game and he knows how a NFL O functions and how to read NFL Ds. Dynasty owners ought to be looking hard at BJ Coleman in their leagues as a late draft addition to taxi squads - the kid has a lot of Flynn in him but has a stronger arm. In any case, I could easily see where SEA is going to have a tough decision to make in 3 years as to which QB they intend to move forward with, Flynn or Wilson - but they ought to recoup some nice value in the trade market for whomever isn't their guy. In the meantime, Wilson gets to age and learn from a guy who aged and learned in the GB system behind Rodgers. Don't underestimate the value of that kind of education. I like his chances a lot.

Edited by Bronco Billy
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A couple of weeks ago I was talking about this with a co-worker and he pointed me to these articiles, pretty interesting stuff on the history of QBs under 6 feet tall and Wilson's statistical chances for success. Doesn't really address the "why" question that seahawks posed, but related and interesting stuff nonetheless

 

http://www.fieldgulls.com/2012/5/3/2989792/seahawks-russell-wilson-nfl-draft-qb-height

 

http://www.fieldgulls.com/2012/5/3/2995170/seahawks-russell-wilson-a-deep-analysis-of-height-qbs-the-nfl-draft

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A couple of weeks ago I was talking about this with a co-worker and he pointed me to these articiles, pretty interesting stuff on the history of QBs under 6 feet tall and Wilson's statistical chances for success. Doesn't really address the "why" question that seahawks posed, but related and interesting stuff nonetheless

 

http://www.fieldgull...draft-qb-height

 

http://www.fieldgull...s-the-nfl-draft

 

 

When it comes down to it, I see it as along the lines of "well, BYU QBs, as a rule, don't do anything in the NFL really - except for Steve Young."

 

So maybe you take a gamble and get Marc Wilson or Virgil Carter...or maybe you end up with the outlier, STEVE F'IN YOUNG. Trends like that are good to go by, except when they're not.

 

 

I don't know if Wilson will or won't succeed; but I tend to agree with BB that his major hurdles are less height and more opportunity - a 3rd round pick, behind what appears to be a decent veteran, has a good chance to sit and learn and get acclimated; he also has a chance to become yesterday's news if a stud QB falls into the team's lap 2-3 yrs down the road.

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