Jump to content
[[Template core/front/custom/_customHeader is throwing an error. This theme may be out of date. Run the support tool in the AdminCP to restore the default theme.]]

Recommended Posts

I was going to bump last year's thread, but all it proved is that it's tough to compare before seeing them on an NFL field. Though I have to give BB props for this, well before the draft:

 

I think both guys are destined for stellar careers and have stud WR written all over them. I'd love to have a top 2 pick in one of my dynasty leagues and nab one of them.

 

Green appears to be the better mechanic - his hands are surer, his runs crisp routes, he attacks the ball at the apex, he uses his body well. He's going to be consistent as hell, and he's going to be a security blanket.

 

Jones is the better athlete and is simply too much in terms of athleticism, size, and strength for virtually any CB to handle alone. He's too big and too fast to risk manhandling at the LoS with press coverage - he muscles past a DB and the DB won't be able to track him down no matter how much recovery speed he has - but if a CB plays with a cushion he risks Jones catching the ball in front of him and having to deal with him in the open field.

 

I think Green will be the safer choice but Jones has the higher ceiling. If Jones understands how awesome he can be by learning to run sharp routes, concentrate on the ball as it arrives a little more, and use his body better, he has the ability to surpass Green's production. Green already has learned a lot of these things and so he has smaller margin to improve in that area, and he's not going to get faster or quicker.

 

So, what's your risk tolerance? If you are risk averse, choose Green. He's safer. If you don't mind rolling the dice a little, choose Jones. He's got a higher ceiling (and a lower floor).

 

 

I think that sums it up quite well, and was exactly what we saw last year.... If Julio starts to really get it, there's no one outside of Calvin who has such freakish athletic gifts to make him virtually uncoverable too. Just watch

from pregame of what to expect if they start utilizing the goal-line fades and taking advantage of his leaping ability too.

 

Though there's no doubt at all that AJ is the most surefire WR you can ask for. The guy is Larry Fitzgerald in Moss's frame. His body control is what makes him truly special, and if you watch his highlights from last year, he really did make Dalton look a lot better than he really was at the deep ball.

 

So it would seem a foregone conclusion that AJ is better right now, right? Well, as much as it pains this UGA homer to say, not so fast....

 

Dealing with injuries to both hammies (presumably from poor conditioning with the lockout), in Julio's 13 games, he put up 2 more points per game in PPR (and they were nearly tied in total points in "standard" leagues), he had 8 TDs to AJ's 7, and just barely missed 1,000 yards in his shortened rookie season and offseason. However, it should also be noted that AJ was banged up at the end of the year (again, probably because of Dalton hanging him out to dry on tough catches like the absurd one versus the Steelers that got him hurt). But neither should be considered an injury risk.

 

I still think Billy said it best, that if you're risk averse, go with AJ and have no regrets. However, if you want to roll the dice that Julio can build on his freakish athletic gifts, then the sky is the limit... Julio might not be able to contort his body to make absurd catches (though he did have some nice ones last year), but AJ can't take a 5 yard slant and turn it into a 50 yard play.

 

But as much as it seems like their skill-sets would make Green the better PPR prospect and Jones more of a deep/speed threat, it's really the opposite. You just put it up to AJ deep and he'll come down with it, whereas Julio got targeted more to give him chances to break the long ones to the house. It will not surprise me at all if Julio can again outscore Green, even with the multitude of weapons in ATL. They just can't afford to not feed him the ball and let him make plays.

 

The debate continues and surely will for quite a while... So what do you think? Both dynasty and redraft, who do you like and think will end up on top? And where will they stack up against the rest of the field? It seems like a no-brainier to me to say that there's no one besides Calvin I'd rather have at WR. These 2 are special.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think I might slip a 24 year old Hakeen Nicks into that discussion, and possibly Percy Harvin if he can get his headache issue under control.

 

In a dynasty league I would surely draft those 2 over AJ and Julio. Maybe Greg Jennings as well, but past that I agree that these guys are top notch. Dez Bryant and Demarius Thomas are guys that might enter into this discussion depending on different conditions as well...Demarius on chemistry with Manning and Bryant on getting his brains in the right space. Is he destined to be Brandon Marshall 2.0 or Roddy White 2.0? Right now it looks more Brandon Marshall, sadly for him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Staying just between AJ and Julio, my bigger concern is Roddy White. Julio may never see 150 targets with Roddy on the other side. Green has that offense all to himself. Julio scored (in my homer) 2.0 points per target, while Green was 1.7 PPT. If you don't factor White's presence in, I say it's Julio by a neck. Give them both 150 targets and that's 45 points on a season, or almost 3 per game. I think as it stands right now, right this moment, it's Green due to workload, but eventually it's Jones depending on White's longevity.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think I might slip a 24 year old Hakeen Nicks into that discussion, and possibly Percy Harvin if he can get his headache issue under control.

 

I love Harvin's talent, and really he's the only Gator I've ever really loved to watch play. He turned into a consistent stud with Ponder at the helm, though it should be noted that his biggest games all came when AP was out and they relied heavily on his hybrid skills. IMO, having threats on the outside will help even more to allow him to move around and tear up the middle, but I'm still not sold that he's a lock for top 5 for the foreseeable future yet, more like top 10, so I'd struggle to take him over the ones who've proven they can finish at the top.

 

As for Nicks, the talent is definitely there as a TD machine, but the broken leg certainly won't help his cause to be Eli's favorite target outside of the redzone. I easily have at least 5 WRs I like better, especially in PPR.

Staying just between AJ and Julio, my bigger concern is Roddy White. Julio may never see 150 targets with Roddy on the other side. Green has that offense all to himself. Julio scored (in my homer) 2.0 points per target, while Green was 1.7 PPT. If you don't factor White's presence in, I say it's Julio by a neck. Give them both 150 targets and that's 45 points on a season, or almost 3 per game. I think as it stands right now, right this moment, it's Green due to workload, but eventually it's Jones depending on White's longevity.

 

The Falcons are already talking about spreading it out more to take advantage of all the weapons, and I think that's going to work to the detriment of everyone's numbers and consistency besides Julio (and Ryan of course). For how much they were admittedly easing him in last year, with both the short offseason and injuries, they fed him the ball more and more as the season wore on. Look back at the 94 targets, which was actually in 12 games with them only using him as a decoy versus the Vikings, when he was coming off injury and wasn't needed for the win. That already extrapolates to 125 targets, and Coach Smith will be the first to tell you that they're only going to continue to target him more and more.

 

I do agree though, for this year that my money is on Green to have the better year, but I can't say that it'd surprise me at all for Julio to make that leap too this year. When Ryan gets into a rhythm with a guy, he'll lock into him, and I just see that being even moreso with how easily Julio can get open or be thrown open.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Falcons are already talking about spreading it out more to take advantage of all the weapons, and I think that's going to work to the detriment of everyone's numbers and consistency besides Julio (and Ryan of course). For how much they were admittedly easing him in last year, with both the short offseason and injuries, they fed him the ball more and more as the season wore on. Look back at the 94 targets, which was actually in 12 games with them only using him as a decoy versus the Vikings, when he was coming off injury and wasn't needed for the win. That already extrapolates to 125 targets, and Coach Smith will be the first to tell you that they're only going to continue to target him more and more.

I agree about 95%. I am a firm believer that the talent trumps all, and he has it in spades. Until it happens though, it hasn't, and that is the only thing that keeps me from Taz'ing all over Julio at this point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

AJ is a beast. He will continue to grow along with Dalton. Julio does have the advantage of a weaker defensive division. While Roddy takes targets away from Julio, he also doesnt have to see the top corner each week like AJ does. Its very close between the two on talent/potential, but in my preranks for my new dynasty league I have AJ ranked a lot higher than Julio. I have AJ #3 behind Calvin and Fitz, and Julio is my #13 WR. I'll take real fantasy point production over "average per target".

Link to comment
Share on other sites

AJ is a beast. He will continue to grow along with Dalton. Julio does have the advantage of a weaker defensive division. While Roddy takes targets away from Julio, he also doesnt have to see the top corner each week like AJ does. Its very close between the two on talent/potential, but in my preranks for my new dynasty league I have AJ ranked a lot higher than Julio. I have AJ #3 behind Calvin and Fitz, and Julio is my #13 WR. I'll take real fantasy point production over "average per target".

 

Like I said, Julio did actually have more points per game than AJ last year...

 

BTW, reports from OTAs today said that he feels like he has a better understanding already with a full offseason to prepare, and says he's stronger and faster than he was last year :scared: . Also he cut off his dreads to donate to cancer patients :tup:, and is obviously frugal with his new $5.99 supercuts haircut.

 

But I have to ask, what 12 WRs could you possible have ahead of Julio in a startup dynasty? Redraft I could see, but I'm very curious who you like better long-term.

Edited by delusions of grandeur
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think I might slip a 24 year old Hakeen Nicks into that discussion, and possibly Percy Harvin if he can get his headache issue under control.

 

In a dynasty league I would surely draft those 2 over AJ and Julio. Maybe Greg Jennings as well, but past that I agree that these guys are top notch. Dez Bryant and Demarius Thomas are guys that might enter into this discussion depending on different conditions as well...Demarius on chemistry with Manning and Bryant on getting his brains in the right space. Is he destined to be Brandon Marshall 2.0 or Roddy White 2.0? Right now it looks more Brandon Marshall, sadly for him.

 

You can certainly make an argument for Nicks to be drafted ahead of both guys in a dynasty but to throw Percy Harvin into that discussion seems like a reach, imo. I'm not saying the guy doesn't have ability and upside and I do like Harvin but there's no way I'd draft him ahead of Green or Julio. I'd be interested in knowing your logic behind your position.

 

I also agree with you on Jennings although it's very close. The top 5 outside of Calvin are all close. Here are my top 6 WRs in a dynasty format but I'll say these guys could shift amongst themselves depending on how I feel that day. In other words, I'd be ecstatic with any of these guys as my #1 WR:

 

Calvin

Green

Nicks

Jennings

Fitzgerald

Julio

 

I had the 7th overall pick in my dynasty startup draft and was fully prepared to go with Green (assuming Calvin would be gone, which he was) at that pick. But when the pick came, I realized that many probably didn't have Jennings ranked as high as me so I took a gamble and drafted Rob Gronk at 1.07 and was still able to nab Jennings in round 2. It's still tough because I LOVE Green (and Dalton) but I think I made the right call here.

 

Sorry for getting O.T. talking about my dynasty draft but felt it had relevance to the discussion.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd be interested in knowing your logic behind your position.

In my local, Harvin was the #5 WR in the league (12 and 17 for Julio/Green). He finished with 246 overall points (187 and 197) and 15.4 PPG (14.4 and 13.1). This raised to #4 WR at 17.7 PPG once Ponder took over. I take him over both of those guys any day of the week right now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In my local, Harvin was the #5 WR in the league (12 and 17 for Julio/Green). He finished with 246 overall points (187 and 197) and 15.4 PPG (14.4 and 13.1). This raised to #4 WR at 17.7 PPG once Ponder took over. I take him over both of those guys any day of the week right now.

 

Fair enough. I recognize his stats but I still can't pull the trigger on him that early. For me he makes a great value pick in the middle rounds but I won't reach for him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fair enough. I recognize his stats but I still can't pull the trigger on him that early. For me he makes a great value pick in the middle rounds but I won't reach for him.

 

Yep the scare factor is easy to get. I was stunned to see that he only had 6 TD's and he had under 1k receiving yards @ 11.1 YPC. If his multi-factor touches go away he's far more ordinary. You gotta trust those will remain if you are going to draft him where he's going to go.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Harvin also was the ONLY receiving factor on the team last year for the Vikings. That won't be the case this year as Rudolph gets into the mix and Jerome Simpson takes over the WR1 role. Then factor in the potential migraines and Harvin's value drops significantly IMO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

From a Talent standpoint, AJ and Julio are already top 5 WR's in the league. This is why I wouldn't take Harvin over each in a Dynasty. While Harvin is a unique talent, in the long run I think both AJ and Julio will be far more consistent, and just better WR's now and in the future.

 

As far as the AJ Julio debate goes, I agree with the sentiment of most. I think AJ is the better WR right now, but Julio's ceiling is that of Calvin's. AJ will be more consistent, since he's the #1 option on his offense, while Julio will have the blow up games that can really win you a week.

 

I think it's really apples and oranges, as I expect them to be 1A and 1B in the next few years. I would probably go after the one I think I can get a little later in the draft. Probably Julio as it stands right now.

Edited by Capt. Stanky
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Harvin also was the ONLY receiving factor on the team last year for the Vikings. That won't be the case this year as Rudolph gets into the mix and Jerome Simpson takes over the WR1 role. Then factor in the potential migraines and Harvin's value drops significantly IMO.

 

When you say "WR1", that's in the sense of Simpson playing that traditional role on the outside, not necessarily his production, no? Because I tend to look at Harvin like Welker, technically playing more of a slot role like a WR3, but with production like a WR1. I personally think Harvin will only thrive more with recievers on the outside to give him more room to work, but at the same time I see a healthy AP making it where they don't have to rely on his hybrid skills like they did in his absence.

 

Also, hasn't he finally gotten the migraine issues under control? I remember reading that, and haven't seen any indication that he's still ailing from them (not to mention it was more the headache of not knowing if he'd play or not. I don't remember many games at all he actually missed for it).

 

I still LOVE Harvin as a potential top 10 reciever, but I think the points you made are what will make it very difficult to repeat a top 5 performance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 months later...

Yep the scare factor is easy to get. I was stunned to see that he only had 6 TD's and he had under 1k receiving yards @ 11.1 YPC. If his multi-factor touches go away he's far more ordinary. You gotta trust those will remain if you are going to draft him where he's going to go.

 

He's actually coming off the board in a place that seems like he's worth the risk. Sandwiched between Dez Bryant and Demarious Thomas, neither of whom put up his numbers last year, both of whom have questions of their own.

 

Now, I certainly don't take him in a spot of the draft where AJ and Julio are going, but that's only because I don't have to.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

He's actually coming off the board in a place that seems like he's worth the risk. Sandwiched between Dez Bryant and Demarious Thomas, neither of whom put up his numbers last year, both of whom have questions of their own.

 

Now, I certainly don't take him in a spot of the draft where AJ and Julio are going, but that's only because I don't have to.

 

Yes, but you don't draft a guy there that went 87/967/6 and/or projects out to that, which was my point. Those are projections that fit Boldin or Meachem. Harvin is going in the Dez territory because of his mulit-faceted touches. He's only worth the risk of that ADP if you trust that he's going to continue to get those touches rushing (51 last year) and returning.

 

FTR, I am all aboard this train. Not only do I think those touches remain, but I think he'll improve on that 11.1 YPC number a lot. And if that happens it's another top 5 season for him. Choo choo baby.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes, but you don't draft a guy there that went 87/967/6 and/or projects out to that, which was my point. Those are projections that fit Boldin or Meachem. Harvin is going in the Dez territory because of his mulit-faceted touches. He's only worth the risk of that ADP if you trust that he's going to continue to get those touches rushing (51 last year) and returning.

 

FTR, I am all aboard this train. Not only do I think those touches remain, but I think he'll improve on that 11.1 YPC number a lot. And if that happens it's another top 5 season for him. Choo choo baby.

 

Fair enough. And I guess I agree that he'll continue getting touches in the running game.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

thoughts on Julio's ADP by the time the season starts? Does he go around 15 now?

 

I think his ADP is pretty capped because those drafting him are those that already believe. More believers I don't think will have much impact. No matter what else, he's still sharing targets with a HOF TE and a guy that's caught a ton of balls from the current QB so has a huge comfort level. The WR's ahead of him are all solo acts, and it's hard for a guy sharing touches to outgun a solo act with just as much talent or production to his credit. It would also mean bypassing RB's to take a guy with one season of experience, playing only 13 games, and splitting time. Not sure how you do that. I have him as a keeper, and I took him WAY early in my local last year, so I'm a believer all the way like I am in Harvin, but I wouldn't pull the trigger in the 2nd, and he's still no better than 6 or 7 WR on my list.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information