43 replies to this topic

[Henry Muto]

Savage Beatings, on 15 June 2012 - 08:02 PM, said:

Sproles at 2.12???  I don't care if it is PPR, that is a serious reach that early.

86 catches last year.  I am guessing you assume he won't come close to this again ?

[Henry Muto]

I would not have gone with a WR in round 1 not named Calvin the WR position is very deep this year and the RB position of elite backs will dry up very quickly.

Example Harvin outscored Fitz last year you could have had a stud RB round 1 + Harvin instead you have Fitz + Bradshaw.

Edited by Henry Muto, 16 June 2012 - 10:19 PM.

[Henry Muto]

Redman at 7.08 is a great value I have seen him go in the range of the 4th-6th rounds.

I like Wallace at 3.08 as well he needs to sign a contact before training camp otherwise he brings serious risk.

I would have probably gone with Marshall over Wallace he seems like a safe bet for around 90 catches.

[Henry Muto]

Savage Beatings, on 16 June 2012 - 08:22 AM, said:

My point with Sproles is that there are times in a draft when its fine to reach for someone you like... but if you do it in the 2nd round you are screwing your team.  Sproles is a 4th rounder at best IMO.  There is just way too much alternative talent on the board that you have to pass up to take him that early.

I have been in 5 real drafts so far this year Sproles has gone at the following spots for 12 team PPR leagues

2.10
3.01
2.10
2.07
3.05 (14 team league)

[White lightning]

Henry Muto, on 16 June 2012 - 10:18 PM, said:

I would not have gone with a WR in round 1 not named Calvin the WR position is very deep this year and the RB position of elite backs will dry up very quickly.

Example Harvin outscored Fitz last year you could have had a stud RB round 1 + Harvin instead you have Fitz + Bradshaw.

+1
But in all fairness to j2v, the next 3 picks (Run DMC, CJ, and Forte) all have their risks.

[j2v]

White lightning, on 17 June 2012 - 09:01 AM, said:

+1
But in all fairness to j2v, the next 3 picks (Run DMC, CJ, and Forte) all have their risks.

As noted in the comments, you can make a case for several guys at that spot. If Forte is under contract he's the pick, but that situation scares me greatly. I don't trust McFadden to stay healthy, and I'm peschi on CJ as well (combo of his struggles and a changing Titans offense). Fitz is a safe pick with upside. Generally, I've had more success making the safer pick in R1 and taking my risks elsewhere.

And Bradshaw was my fourth-round pick, so the more apt comparison isn't Fitz/ Bradshaw vs. McFadden/Harvin, it's McFadden/R4 receiver (Steve Smith). And in this scoring format Fitz outscored Harvin last year. Also, for what it's worth Bradshaw outscored McFadden.

To be honest, I was kind of expecting Ryan Mathews to be available in the 1.8 range but apparently that bandwagon is filling quickly. I'd guess that between now and August a bevy of guys will run through the 9-12 spots in mock drafts. Right now Fitz is the guy I'm most comfortable taking there.

2V

[Henry Muto]

Fitz outscored Harvin by 3 pts my bad......

Bradshaw and Bush have plenty of injury history themsevles I just think in a year where WR is super deep and RB elite bell cow backs are fewer than most years I am coming around to taking at least 1 if not 2 RB's this year early on and normally I am a WR-WR guy from the back end but by the time those 3rd/4th round RBs fall to you their value is not as good as the WR value there but if you go non RB in the 1st/2nd/3rd rounds you are forced into taking them in rounds 4/5.

I have always been a take a WR guy because they are usually safe (except stupid Andre Johnson last 2 years)

This year just feels different.  Maybe things will change come August.

[bostonsoxandy]

Peyton Manning going as the 10th QB seems like a sexy pick to me. His upside makes me think about him as the 7t or 8th best QB...

[MTSuper7]

Draftsharks.com takes RG3 and uses the fact that he has "the league's most pass heavy coach" as rationale. Mike McCarthy? Sean Payton? In what league is Mike Shanahan more pass heavy than those two?

Edited by MTSuper7, 17 June 2012 - 11:14 PM.

[j2v]

Henry Muto, on 17 June 2012 - 06:08 PM, said:

Fitz outscored Harvin by 3 pts my bad......

Bradshaw and Bush have plenty of injury history themsevles I just think in a year where WR is super deep and RB elite bell cow backs are fewer than most years I am coming around to taking at least 1 if not 2 RB's this year early on and normally I am a WR-WR guy from the back end but by the time those 3rd/4th round RBs fall to you their value is not as good as the WR value there but if you go non RB in the 1st/2nd/3rd rounds you are forced into taking them in rounds 4/5.

I have always been a take a WR guy because they are usually safe (except stupid Andre Johnson last 2 years)

This year just feels different.  Maybe things will change come August.

Agreed on things changing over the next two months. I've looked back on plenty of mocks two months later and wondered what I was thinking.

I'm well aware Bradshaw missed four games last year, and Bush is no lock to stay healthy either. But like I said earlier I'm more inclined to roll those bones in R4 and R5 than R1.

I appreciate all the feedback here, both pro and con. I'm more than happy to explain my picks beyond what we can put in the comments box, especially since in that forum I'm trying not to tip my hand on future picks.

2V

[bushwacked]

Cam Newton at 1.12...

Meh.....maybe that works out, but I can't help but forsee massive overdraft written on that pick. I'd like a stalwart at QB if you are going to take one that early.  Teams adjusted to Vick last year after everyone over-spooged on him last year (granted his line was a culprit),  NFL D coordinators may make things a little bit tougher on Cam after his freshman year.

[bushwacked]

Henry Muto, on 16 June 2012 - 10:25 PM, said:

I have been in 5 real drafts so far this year Sproles has gone at the following spots for 12 team PPR leagues

2.10
3.01
2.10
2.07
3.05 (14 team league)

Savage won't be drafting Sproles this year?  

[Savage Beatings]

bushwacked, on 18 June 2012 - 03:45 AM, said:

Savage won't be drafting Sproles this year?  

Definitely not if that's his ADP.  Good luck to those who are taking him that high though... I'm (obviously) not sold on him repeating last year's production.  I've been wrong more often than right when it comes to FF though.

[MTSuper7]

Malcom Floyd is a great pick there, 2V. People assume VJax out, Meachem in means Meachem will be the default WR1. What has Meachem done in his career to date to make anyone think he's going to replicate VJax at all? Meanwhile, Floyd has the experience and rapport with Rivers. I really, really like Floyd's value there.

[bushwacked]

Savage Beatings, on 18 June 2012 - 09:06 AM, said:

Definitely not if that's his ADP.  Good luck to those who are taking him that high though... I'm (obviously) not sold on him repeating last year's production.  I've been wrong more often than right when it comes to FF though.

I'm not sold on him repeating last year's production either but I'm curious on what mechanisms you think are in place to plummet his value so significantly from last season to this season.

[Savage Beatings]

bushwacked, on 18 June 2012 - 11:59 AM, said:

I'm not sold on him repeating last year's production either but I'm curious on what mechanisms you think are in place to plummet his value so significantly from last season to this season.

I have no such mechanism.  Just my own instinct based upon very limited observation of the player and team.  But his production is only part of the equation.  I also happen to believe that there are better values to be had in the first couple of rounds than Sproles.

But I think we've taken up enough of 2V's thread on this comment of mine.  In the end, it looks like a lot more people will agree with this draft, that his value warrants a 2nd or 3rd round pick.

[Hugh 0ne]

Savage Beatings, on 18 June 2012 - 09:06 AM, said:

I've been wrong more often than right when it comes to FF though.

You sir, are no Henry Muto.

[Zooty]

MTSuper7, on 17 June 2012 - 11:13 PM, said:

Draftsharks.com takes RG3 and uses the fact that he has "the league's most pass heavy coach" as rationale. Mike McCarthy? Sean Payton? In what league is Mike Shanahan more pass heavy than those two?

and he might be 3rd in his division when it comes to "pass happy"  

[Chargerz]

MTSuper7, on 18 June 2012 - 09:36 AM, said:

Malcom Floyd is a great pick there, 2V. People assume VJax out, Meachem in means Meachem will be the default WR1. What has Meachem done in his career to date to make anyone think he's going to replicate VJax at all? Meanwhile, Floyd has the experience and rapport with Rivers. I really, really like Floyd's value there.

I agree. IF Floyd stays healthy, he'll have a very productive year. He's certainly worth the eighth pick in the ninth round.