21 replies to this topic

[cgxterra]

Hello.  I'm in my 3rd year in a keeper PPR league where we keep 5 players from the previous year.  I have Brady and Vick as QB's, but I feel like I should probably drop, or maybe trade one of them.

Here's the keepers I "think" I should keep, but I'm open to suggestions.  I won my division but lost in the first round of the playoffs last year because of Forte getting hurt.

QB: Brady / Vick
RB Ray Rice
RB Matt Forte
WR Victor Cruz
TE Jermichael Finley

My other options:
RB James Starks, Dexter McCluster
WR Steve Johnson, AJ Green, Brandon Lloyd, Mario Manningham
TE Brandon Pettigrew

Should I drop one of those guys and keep the two QB's for trading during the season?

Brady and Vick putting up strong numbers so it's tough for me to drop one of them...but these guys don't trade much...there's only been 1 in the 3 seasons i've played in it.

I'll be picking 9th in the 1st round in a serpentine draft in a 12 team PPR league.

Here's the starting roster maximums:
1 QB, 1 RB, 1 RB/WR, 2 WR, 1 WR/TE, 1 TE, 1 D/ST, 1 K

Thank you in advance and please let me know if there's any other info required for some advice.

Ed

Edited by cgxterra, 19 June 2012 - 07:56 PM.

[G.K.Trey]

first thing is you have to keep AJ Green over Finley. then you try to trade Vick/finley for draft picks.

[ShadowsFall]

In a league where you could start uo to 4 Wr in any given week, it would be wise to keep more than 1 receiver. A.J. Green is a must keep on your team over Finley. I would also try to combine Brady, Finley and maybe even steve johnson to get another top WR.

[cgxterra]

Interesting.  Thank you for the advice.  I'll keep Green around and see if I can talk someone into a trade before the season starts.
Appreciate it!

[Scorcher]

I am curious to know if you have a big turnover in you league. Five keepers seem like a lot. Some one with a poor team could be stuck at the bottom for a long time.

[cgxterra]

Scorcher, on 20 June 2012 - 10:42 AM, said:

I am curious to know if you have a big turnover in you league. Five keepers seem like a lot. Some one with a poor team could be stuck at the bottom for a long time.

I've been in the league for 3 season and we lost 2 people the first season, same crew for the 2nd, and lost two in the 3rd.

There are some people that do really bad, but we're all friends, so it makes for some good banter going on.

[Zooty]

Yup AJ is a must keep over Finley.  Find a Vick fan and trade him

[Papajohn]

Lik everybody else have already said: A.J. Green is a no-brainer keeper. How can you even consider letting him go?

[cgxterra]

Lol...thanks all.  I guess my decision to drop Green and keep Finley might be why I haven't won the championship yet!

No doubt I'll keep Green since I've done some subsequent research since getting your advice.

Thanks to all of you.

[Kris N]

AJ green should be on your team for at least the rest of this decade.

you could try to package finley/vick/cruz for a stud wr if another owner has bad keeper choices (calvin, fitz, jennings, nicks, welker.....you never know how desperate owners are until you propose the trade).....unless you love cruz then i would stay with your 5 and just trade vick/finley for draft picks.

[cgxterra]

Well I put Vick and Finley up on the block and notified the other team owners.  I doubt too many of them are paying attention to their rosters at this point in the off-season.  Some of them i'm absolutely sure just show up at the draft with a ranking of the players and just pick the best available on their turn.  I am trying to be a little more systematic than that this year and see if I can snag the trophy.

The draft picks trade is interesting.  We haven't done that in this league in the 3 years I've been a part of it, but I'm going to ask the Commish if it's okay.  Two draft picks in the first round would be pretty sweet...but with 60 of the best players in the league already taken...that doesn't leave much.  It would have to be Vick/Finley = WR AND a draft pick unless the WR was a superstar.

Thanks again for all of your advice folks...I'm using it!

Ed

[delusions of grandeur]

I'd say it's probably going to be a tall order to try to get someone to just let go of their first rounder (even though it is technically a 6th round pick with 5 keepers). That is, unless their keepers are that bad to where Vick and Finley are huge upgrades for them...

What's more likely is that you can trade the players to be able to swap picks and move up in a round or two, say if they had picks that can move you up some spots in the first few rounds, then you trade the players and that/those picks for higher pick(s).

Now I'm not the best person here at determining fair value when it comes to moving up in a keeper in particular, but I'd say that whatever the best offer you can get for those keepers is going to be better than just dropping them for nothing (as long as you're not getting totally fleeced or making another team too strong).

Edited by delusions of grandeur, 28 June 2012 - 11:30 AM.

[Big Country]

cgxterra, on 27 June 2012 - 07:27 PM, said:

Two draft picks in the first round would be pretty sweet...but with 60 of the best players in the league already taken...that doesn't leave much.  It would have to be Vick/Finley = WR AND a draft pick unless the WR was a superstar.

DoG hit it on the head, you are going to have to vastly change your valuation of your players.

Vick and Finley are non-keepers for you, so anything you get, you are essentially getting for nothing. You have to realize that whatever someone gives you, they are giving to you in addition to the player they are no longer keeping.

If you can find a team interested, even something like getting a 3rd/4th rounder straight up for them is a win for you, or if you can get their 1st/2nd in exchange for the player and your 3rd or 4th, again, a big win for you as you essentially get an upgrade from the 3rd/4th round to the 1st/2nd round for nothing.

Now, if your owners are not savvy in keeper league management, you may be able to convince them to give more based on name appeal, so don't neccessarily not open up asking for a high pick outright to start, just don't be surprised if they balk heavily at it, and hope they don't take it as an insulting offer.

[delusions of grandeur]

Big Country, on 28 June 2012 - 11:55 AM, said:

DoG hit it on the head, you are going to have to vastly change your valuation of your players.

To be fair, I'm pretty sure I got the "something is better than nothing" argument from you, because I don't have experience in keepr leagues, and so it's weird to have to consider trading away valuable players for much less than what they're "worth".

But yeah, they're only worth to that other team how much of an upgrade it gives them. The players values themselves are meaningless if they don't present an upgrade.

Edited by delusions of grandeur, 28 June 2012 - 04:50 PM.

[MnLefty]

I wouldn't rule out trying to snag another elite WR or TE... if the owners of guys like Calvin, Gronk, Graham, are hard up for 5 good keepers you might be able to land somebody like that even if it feels like you're overpaying.  Assuming you keep Green you still have tradable assets in Vick, Finley, Stevie, and whomever you'd replace in your keepers to make room... Cruz?  I would explore getting one more elite keeper for yourself before dumping those guys for picks.

I wouldn't go all out on the "something is better than nothing" thought either... while the players you release have no value to your team they do have value in the draft.  Let's say after the 60 are kept Vick is a 1st or 2nd rounder, but you sell him for 3rd or 4th... yes you got an additional pick for nothing, but now that guy a) maybe dumps a Freeman type QB back to the draft who has no value to you, and now targets a WR or RB you wanted with his 1st or 2nd instead of having to burn his pick on Vick.  I wouldn't just trade your non-keeper for "whatever you can get".  If you don't get fair value just let them go back and make the others keep lesser players and burn their picks, thereby increasing the value of your own picks.

Like I said earlier, preferred option for me would be to use whatever combo of non-keepers + 1 keeper to improve your keeper 5.

Edited by MnLefty, 11 July 2012 - 10:18 AM.

[flemingd]

Don't forget you can always put one of your keepers in for a better one - you aren't limited to trading your chaff.

Vick + Cruz for Fitzgerald
Brady + Forte for McCoy

Also, don't be afraid to give the other guy his choice of any/all of your non-keeps because who knows who he loves and doesn't.  Maybe you're not putting Finley in because you don't think he has value, but maybe the other guy LOVES him and is afraid to ask for him because he thinks (like you initially did) that he's a keeper for you.  And saying "take your pick of anyone else not named _____" really goes a long way toward getting him on the hook.

MNLefty hit it on the head though - don't just give stuff away.  Taking a 10th for Vick "just because you can" isn't the right move - you're better off making someone burn a 2nd for him or drafting him yourself given what a 10th rounder is going to do for you - who is that going to be, Brandon Jacobs?  Yank.

[tboyhankq]

Yup AJ is a must keep over Finley.  Find a Vick fan and trade him

[stevegrab]

Some good advice. We have a similar format (5 keepers no limits, 12 teams) and people are often looking to trade to get better players, or to get something for those who they do not keep.

Good points on not just giving players away, that you have to also consider how this trade and change in keeper for the other owner affects the draft.

As to the question somebody asked about turnover, we have virtually none in the past 10 years of this league. While the keepers do make for some teams that need time to rebuild, its rare that a team doesn't have at least 3-4 viable keepers (in the top 60-75 players overall).

[delusions of grandeur]

flemingd, on 11 July 2012 - 10:57 AM, said:

MNLefty hit it on the head though - don't just give stuff away.  Taking a 10th for Vick "just because you can" isn't the right move - you're better off making someone burn a 2nd for him or drafting him yourself given what a 10th rounder is going to do for you - who is that going to be, Brandon Jacobs?  Yank.

Tha'ts not really what was meant by something is better than nothing.

The point was that in a limited keeper, a player is not necessarily worth anywhere near what they would be with full rosters, when it forces them to have to let go of another keeper. So if the keeper that they have to drop is roughly the same ADP as Vick, then sure you can take a 10th rounder and let a player of similar ADP go back into the pool as you get something for nothing.

Of course you don't just let yourself get trade raped, but the value of the player you're trading = the amount of upgrade and opportunity cost of losing another keeper. You simply cannot look at it just with player value, when their value is affected by what they have to give up to obtain it on top of what they're giving you.

Thus, if you cannot find a team where that player will be a big upgrade and can bring good trade value, then sure, trade him to a team who he's even a small upgrade for, and take what you can get, is all we mean.

I certainly didn't mean you jsut give him away for peanuts, only if he's only worth peanuts to another team.

Edited by delusions of grandeur, 19 July 2012 - 05:54 PM.

[flemingd]

delusions of grandeur, on 19 July 2012 - 05:51 PM, said:

I certainly didn't mean you jsut give him away for peanuts, only if he's only worth peanuts to another team.

In the advice column I tend to not let anything go unsaid, and very clearly at that.  I wasn't quoting you, referencing you, or in any way criticizing you.  I was just emphasizing that there is a cutoff point on every player where it's better to have him in the draft than it would be to take a late round pick for him.

[Big Country]

flemingd, on 19 July 2012 - 10:21 PM, said:

In the advice column I tend to not let anything go unsaid, and very clearly at that.  I wasn't quoting you, referencing you, or in any way criticizing you.  I was just emphasizing that there is a cutoff point on every player where it's better to have him in the draft than it would be to take a late round pick for him.

Absolutely..... the hard part is determining what that cutoff point is. For me, the earlier my first pick is, the sooner I hit the cutoff point where I'd rather a player be back in the draft, the later my pick, the more I am inclined to get what I can for a player, even if it is a simple move up in the middle rounds of the draft.

[delusions of grandeur]

flemingd, on 19 July 2012 - 10:21 PM, said:

In the advice column I tend to not let anything go unsaid, and very clearly at that.  I wasn't quoting you, referencing you, or in any way criticizing you.  I was just emphasizing that there is a cutoff point on every player where it's better to have him in the draft than it would be to take a late round pick for him.

Sorry, I just randomly grabbed one of the quotes on the subject to reply, I didn't mean to put words into your mouth, just to clarify the stance.