10 replies to this topic

[buddahj]

[DMD]

Assuming Manning still has his quick release, the receivers not only have to run routes but also be ready for the ball instantly. Coming on the heels of Tebow/Orton, this will be fascinating to watch unfold because maybe we don't truly realize how good Demaryius Thomas really is. In almost all cases, it is the QB that makes the WR great.

[boltnlava]

DMD, on 30 June 2012 - 10:19 AM, said:

Assuming Manning still has his quick release, the receivers not only have to run routes but also be ready for the ball instantly. Coming on the heels of Tebow/Orton, this will be fascinating to watch unfold because maybe we don't truly realize how good Demaryius Thomas really is. In almost all cases, it is the QB that makes the WR great.

Vincent Jackson is about to discover this.

[DMD]

boltnlava, on 30 June 2012 - 11:30 AM, said:

Vincent Jackson is about to discover this.

Very true. When looking for a breakout WR, start out with the best QBs that last year created Victor Cruz and Jordy Nelson. What would they have done in Jacksonville or Miami?

[Bronco Billy]

I agree about Manning - when he is on his game and healthy he is as good as anyone in the league at throwing WRs open.  Don't underestimate physically studly WRs with solid QBs though - they can make QBs look great with their ability as long as the QB is willing to throw the ball within their catch radius regularly.  That's where I think VJax falls with Freeman.  Freeman has a strong arm and despite his setbacks last year has shown he can perform very well in the NFL.  I think one of his greatest shortcomings last year was Mike Williams' regression and Ds figuring out how to take his game away, and that Williams isn't talented enough to overcome that.  From reports I've seen, Williams is in jeopardly of losing his starting spot opposite Jackson to Parker.  Freemen needs to get back to stepping into his throws and stop the sloppy footwork mistakes he fell into last year.

On the other hand, and very physically talented WR like Thomas can negate his own impact with sloppy route running, since it allows DBs to get angles that lead to broken up passes or INTs.  If Thomas doesn't hone his play significantly, I could see Manning looking away from him as time goes on because he'll be unreliable and I don't think Manning will have much tolerance for that.  Plus Thomas has a penchant for dropping pretty easy catches which really hurt DEN at times last year.  Manning can get results by throwing to less talented but more reliable targets, and he knows it better than anyone.

We'll see, but I can see VJax and Freeman forming a very formidable pitch/catch tandem where I think Thomas is being significantly overvalued right now due to Manning's presence.  Thomas may give you the really big occassional game and then may sink into mediocrity for the next 2 to 3 games.  VJax, IMO, is going to be a very steady and solid week-to-week producer who will get enough targets from a strong armed QB to make a top 10 impact.  That's especially good value with VJax going a full round later than Thomas currently per ADP.

Edited by Bronco Billy, 30 June 2012 - 12:32 PM.

[boltnlava]

Bronco Billy, on 30 June 2012 - 12:26 PM, said:

I agree about Manning - when he is on his game and healthy he is as good as anyone in the league at throwing WRs open.  Don't underestimate physically studly WRs with solid QBs though - they can make QBs look great with their ability as long as the QB is willing to throw the ball within their catch radius regularly.  That's where I think VJax falls with Freeman.  Freeman has a strong arm and despite his setbacks last year has shown he can perform very well in the NFL.  I think one of his greatest shortcomings last year was Mike Williams' regression and Ds figuring out how to take his game away, and that Williams isn't talented enough to overcome that.  From reports I've seen, Williams is in jeopardly of losing his starting spot opposite Jackson to Parker.  Freemen needs to get back to stepping into his throws and stop the sloppy footwork mistakes he fell into last year.

On the other hand, and very physically talented WR like Thomas can negate his own impact with sloppy route running, since it allows DBs to get angles that lead to broken up passes or INTs.  If Thomas doesn't hone his play significantly, I could see Manning looking away from him as time goes on because he'll be unreliable and I don't think Manning will have much tolerance for that.  Plus Thomas has a penchant for dropping pretty easy catches which really hurt DEN at times last year.  Manning can get results by throwing to less talented but more reliable targets, and he knows it better than anyone.

We'll see, but I can see VJax and Freeman forming a very formidable pitch/catch tandem where I think Thomas is being significantly overvalued right now due to Manning's presence.  Thomas may give you the really big occassional game and then may sink into mediocrity for the next 2 to 3 games.  VJax, IMO, is going to be a very steady and solid week-to-week producer who will get enough targets from a strong armed QB to make a top 10 impact.  That's especially good value with VJax going a full round later than Thomas currently per ADP.

Can I ask why you see him as a week to week performer? He never did that in San Diego with Rivers. Why now with Freeman? He got a lot of targets from Rivers it seemed to me and he would spend whole games playing Casper the friendly ghost. It just looked like some games he wanted it and some he didn't. This is one aspect of the new season I'll be watching with interest. If he's there late sure I'll take him but I'm not high on him at all. I watched a lot of Jackson over the years and he really came off as wanting to be good but not willing to be great.

[Bronco Billy]

boltnlava, on 30 June 2012 - 01:05 PM, said:

Can I ask why you see him as a week to week performer? He never did that in San Diego with Rivers. Why now with Freeman? He got a lot of targets from Rivers it seemed to me and he would spend whole games playing Casper the friendly ghost. It just looked like some games he wanted it and some he didn't. This is one aspect of the new season I'll be watching with interest. If he's there late sure I'll take him but I'm not high on him at all. I watched a lot of Jackson over the years and he really came off as wanting to be good but not willing to be great.

That's a very good question.  I'd have to differ that Rivers targeted Jackson a lot.

Jackson has never had more than 115 targets in a year over his career, despite a respectable 58% catch ratio and a spectacular 18.0 ypr over the last 4 years.  He also has turned one in 7 catches into a TD over that time.  SD's O gives TEs and RBs a lot of targets, which has hampered VJax's target numbers.  Let's put that in a little perspective.  Jackson is ranked ranked #27 in targets for WRs over the last 4 seasons, while his ypc is #1 for all WRs with at least 200 targets over that time, and his TDs are #6 over 4 years in the same grouping - despite missing 11 games in 2010.  To put it in more perspective, WRs who were targeted more over that time include Houshmandzadeh, Royal, Gaffney, Breaston, Washington, and Bess.  The average top 10 WR has had 537 targets over those 4 years, vs Jackson's 347.  Normalize Jackson targets for the games he missed in those 4 years, and he would have 427 targets, which is 110 targets less than the average of the top 10 guys and even less than the #15 WR over that period.  That's a lot of opportunity that he was never given.

Given Jackson's success with the football once he catches the ball, it seems to me that Jackson was dramatically underutilized in SD.  In TB, he won't have RBs and TEs competing for throws the way he did in SD.  If Jackson just manages to crack the top 15 in targets, his average targets should jump by about 25 targets, give or take - to about 132 targets.  That's not a ton per game - only 1.5 more each game on average.  Mike Williams has averaged 126 targets per season in his term as WR1 in TB, and he can't carry Jackson's jockstrap - I already talked about Williams potentially being displaced by Parker as TB's WR2.  And that's only making the top 15 WRs in targets, and bypassing some very ordinary WRs in the process.  There's upside on that number.  TB figures to being forced to throw a bit given the division they play in and the offenses they'll have to keep up with.

Jackson's ypc will drop - it virtually has to - but his receiving numbers in terms of catches and yards figure to have to go up.  And a young QB will learn to lean on a WR like Jackson, who has the talent to bail him out on less than perfect throws.  Plus Jackson almost literally never fumbles after the catch.

It's a little difficult to put solid numbers to it given all the variables right now, but I see somewhere in the range of a 133 target, 80 catch, 1200 yd, 10 TD season coming for Jackson.  That would put him somewhere in the WR8/WR10 range for FF.

Edited by Bronco Billy, 30 June 2012 - 02:09 PM.

[boltnlava]

Okay. Point taken. I also read where TB is happy with his work ethic. Here in SD it was not the best. He was being singled out for not training hard and I think that showed in his injury history here with the Chargers. He seemed to miss time with tweaks and pulls and Not Getting Paid-itis. You could be right. He could be happy with the money now. Rivers is a master at throwing people open and from what I have seen of Freeman that appears to be lacking. The difference in a 79.0 qb rating and a 95 is huge imho.

The numbers seem to back your thinking. We'll see.

[Bronco Billy]

boltnlava, on 30 June 2012 - 03:58 PM, said:

Rivers is a master at throwing people open and from what I have seen of Freeman that appears to be lacking. The difference in a 79.0 qb rating and a 95 is huge imho.

The numbers seem to back your thinking. We'll see.

I agree.  We'll have to wait and see.  I think the biggest question is whether the 2012 Bucs have the 2010 Freeman and his 95.9 QB rating leading the team or the 2011 Freeman and his 74.6 rating.  From what I saw, Freeman's greatest issue last year was his footwork - he was failing to set properly and threw off his back foot quite a bit.  That can be undone - it wasn't how he was throwing in 2010 and appeared to come from overconfidence in his arm and flat out sloppiness/laziness while dropping back.  The reports I have heard from OTAs is that Freeman and the TB staff have made a point of emphasis for Freeman getting into his drop quickly and getting his feet in position, and that Freeman has responded well.  That also puts Freeman in position to make properly timed throws instead of after the receiver's break, as he was prone to do last year as opposed to 2010.

But the proof is in the pudding, and we'll have to watch preseason games carefully to find out for ourselves.

[MikesVikes]

Peyton is a guy who wants to practice throwing to his receivers until he knows exactly what they are doing on every play.  He's not an ad-lib guy that tells them to get open.

Edited by MikesVikes, 01 July 2012 - 12:44 PM.

[Sturphy]

Bronco Billy, on 30 June 2012 - 04:24 PM, said:

I agree.  We'll have to wait and see.  I think the biggest question is whether the 2012 Bucs have the 2010 Freeman and his 95.9 QB rating leading the team or the 2011 Freeman and his 74.6 rating.  From what I saw, Freeman's greatest issue last year was his footwork - he was failing to set properly and threw off his back foot quite a bit.

From what I read, he was also forcing a lot of throws to Winslow Jr. that caused turnovers.  That was discussed when Winslow was traded.  It was implied that Winslow influenced Freeman and pressured Freeman to throw him the ball.