delusions of grandeur Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 (edited) Both players come off of monster years, and have seen their ADP vault to as high as first-round picks in dynasty leagues. Both could see a small regression and still be far and away the best TEs. However, they do both have some risk of a more sizeable regression. To counteract that risk, both players are virtually uncoverable by both linebackers and defensive backs, so then the question becomes, who do you trust more? Easy answer is Gronk with his 17 TDs last year. While TDs can and do change yearly, Brady seems to have the same trust in Gronk as Stafford does with Calvin, to just put it up there where only he can get it. Seems like we'll only see this more and more as QBs take advantage of these athletic giants. On the flip-side, last year also saw Hernandez emerge as the top TE outside these 2, and they now bring in McDaniel's homeboy Lloyd to go along with the target-hog Welker. This begs the questions: Will teams key on Gronk, and can that even stop him? Can Brady possibly throw for more yards and TDs? If not, will Lloyd have the same minor role and ~700 yards like the 4th look in the Pats offense last year, or does he eat into others production? If so, who? Graham also proved to be pretty uncoverable as a mismatch nightmare himself, and came in just 1 catch shy of 100 catches to go with his 11TDs... Of course the risk here is more obvious following Bountygate and Meachem leaving. He might see a lot more attention and struggles along with the rest of the team in absence of their coaches. However, same question: Can defenses really take him away, or will the attention he sees from Brees matter more? With Gronk having higher upside, but Graham having a few less questions, I see them almost even, with the nod to Graham in PPR and Gronk in non-PPR (and probably dynasty regardless). But I wanted to see how other feel: 1) Who do like better, and does dynasty or PPR make a difference? 2) Where do you have them slated in the draft? For me, early second seems appropriate in most formats. I have a very hard time seeing any other TEs come close to the production they're capable of with those elite QBs and rare skillsets. Edited July 19, 2012 by delusions of grandeur Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flemingd Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 1) Who do like better, and does dynasty or PPR make a difference? Graham by a wide margin. I love Gronkoswki and his skillset, I don't for one second trust Billy Boy to be willing to go to him that much for a second straight season. Lloyd is a huge, huge upgrade at WR and I could easily see the Pats slide some focus in the passing game to him, the RB's, the other TE, the other other TE, the backup MLB, and the girl that drives the gatorade cart at practices. 2) Where do you have them slated in the draft? Mid 2nd for both, although I would not pull the trigger on Gronkowski before the 4th based on the above, which I know I would never see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rd and schlong Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 I'd take graham in the early/mid second. Gronk, for the reasons stated above, I would take in the early third - however, he wouldn't fall to me that late so I don't see myself taking him this year barring anything weird happening in a draft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCommish Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 (edited) Agreed. Mine is a PPR re-draft, and I would take Graham mid 2nd, Gronk early 3rd. Hernandez missed time last season and was still the #3 fantasy TE. On a per game basis, he really wasn't THAT far behind Graham and Gronk. The value lies with that dude, as I am seeing him go in the 5th round of mocks. Edited July 19, 2012 by TheCommish Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 I think it's also important to look at leagues size when discussing where these guys should be taken. I think it would be different in a 10-team league versus a 16-teamer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rd and schlong Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 I was talking about a typical 12 team teamer. Around pick 16-18 for graham, and 24-28 for gronk. At least that's where I would feel comfortable drafting them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rd and schlong Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 Also the same can be said for hernandez that is being said for gronk. Welker, Gronk, lloyd, hernandez - that's a ton of receiving options. Hernandez may be the 4th look for Brady. He still provides good value later on, but that's why he's not coming off the board sooner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delusions of grandeur Posted July 19, 2012 Author Share Posted July 19, 2012 I think it's also important to look at leagues size when discussing where these guys should be taken. I think it would be different in a 10-team league versus a 16-teamer. True, and I guess it also matters some whether your league has a TE-required spot, or if TEs are considered WRs. In a TE-mandatory league, it obviously can give you a bigger edge, when the other teams are forced to start a lesser TE in that spot, as opposed to a stud WR. I guess then. for the the purpose of this conversation let's assume a relatively standard 12-team league with a TE-required spot, and then adjust for your league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 True, and I guess it also matters some whether your league has a TE-required spot, or if TEs are considered WRs. In a TE-mandatory league, it obviously can give you a bigger edge, when the other teams are forced to start a lesser TE in that spot, as opposed to a stud WR. I guess then. for the the purpose of this conversation let's assume a relatively standard 12-team league with a TE-required spot, and then adjust for your league. Exactly, also if you're in a league where you can start 2 TEs, more strategy comes into play there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooby's Hubby Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 Side by side in any format I like Graham better this year. With Brees basically calling plays all year (just a hunch), you can bet he will be depending on Graham just as much if not moreso than last year. I don't see how Gronk can better his numbers, so upside goes to Graham. Also factoring in is the Saints run game is better, meaning defenses have to play the run more and cannot give as much attention to Graham as they might like to. Nothing about the Pats run game scares me near the goaline. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efi4eye Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 Welcome to the Jimmy Graham bandwagon folks! There's room for everyone, climb aboard! Seriously, no one here picked Gronkowski? They both have merits, but... Honestly, Look at Gronkowski. No one has figured out how to stop him. Do you think the Pats invested all those ducats in him to make him less of a focal point? No. Hernandez is the wild card, IMO. Seems to me like the Patriots will utilize him until his contract is up, then let another team sign him. Brandon Lloyd doesn't exactly have a stellar track record either. Regardless, there's room for all of these playmakers on this team. You could also make the case that Welker will suffer more than Gronkowski, who really believes he has another year like 2011? Anyone? I'm just gonna play devil's advocate and go with Gronkowski as the better fantasy play here. Graham is a fantastic athlete and TE, I just think Gronk has a little more upside due to his superior strength. Really it's a joke to down either player, we're talking about the two best TEs to come in the league since Gonzalez and Gates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ABearWithFurniture Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 I like Gronk better this year again, simply because the guy catches everything that comes near him, Brady loves him, and Belichick likes to rub his arse in your face. There were a ton of options in that offense last year and Rob still out produced almost every WR in the league. With no Payton I think the Saints will be running the ball alot more with Ingram, Thomas and Ivory...and the D/ST will be playing with a chip on their shoulder. Not so many shoot-outs and an overall downgrade to all the passing with New Orleans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 For the record, Graham is coming off the board much earlier in mock drafts and comanding a higher price in mock auctions I've done. Of course, you take mocks with a grain of salt, but there you have it. I'd take Graham over Gronk myself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 (edited) It's astonishing to see the love Brandon Lloyd is receiving because of his move to NE and being reunited with Josh McDaniels. The dude was un-draftable for his first 7 seasons in the league and finally blew up in his 8th season. Aside from his anomalous 2010 season, his next best season was 733 yards and 5 TDs. Tom Brady will throw to the open guy and I expect Gronk to be the main target because of two reasons primarily. Gronk is a beast that is nearly un-guardable and to go along with it, he's an exceptional blocker. It's his blocking that makes him so valuable and virtually un-stoppable. You can't really double team him because he's not 'just' a pass catcher like Graham is. It's very possible that Graham is the more talented athlete/pure receiver but Gronk's dual elite ability of blocking and catching make him harder to defend. Therefore, I rank Gronk as my top TE with Graham being right after him. E2A: Also, I backed up my opinion by drafting Gronk 7th overall in my 16 team B.O.T.H. dynasty, Dy Another Day. Edited July 20, 2012 by Brentastic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 Regarding where I'd draft Gronk and/or Graham. Well, in a league that gives a bump in TE points (i.e. 1.5 ppr) and offers TE as a flex, the first round isn't unreasonable and in fact probably a smart call. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 Regarding where I'd draft Gronk and/or Graham. Well, in a league that gives a bump in TE points (i.e. 1.5 ppr) and offers TE as a flex, the first round isn't unreasonable and in fact probably a smart call. I honestly don't think it even takes TE-friendly scoring to put them into that level in the draft. Even if they drop off from last year's totals, they'd still be putting up solid WR1 numbers, only at a position where, historically, you'd be thrilled to get WR2 numbers. So, basically, you get to start 2 WR1 and 1 WR2 where others are starting a WR1, WR2, and WR3. Trading up from WR3 to WR1 sort of production should put them behind only flat-out stud WRs IMO. Read: CJ and, perhaps, Fitz. If there is any argument at all to be had against this, it is that, talent-wise, they may actually only be marginally better than a bunch of others and were merely fortunate to be used in a system that exploited the match-ups TEs can get. Something that, say Detroit may learn from and do with Pettigrew or Cinci may now do with Greshem. After all, both of those guys have shown flashes of having similar skill-sets and the NFL is a copy cat league. But that's just an "OK, but..." and perhaps not enough to truly drop them very far in overall rankings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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