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Rookie RB's


SecondString
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Trent Richardson & Doug Martin both look pretty good going into the season, but how much faith should be put into a rookie RB?? Huddle has both ranked pretty damned high, considering. Too risky to trust, or am I just nervous? Other rookie RB examples? Ingram pretty high going into last year, right?

 

(Maybe this is an advice question, not sure, but am interested in the discussion & opinions.)

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Yeah I don't really trust rookie RB's that much, especially after getting burned by Mathews and Ingram the last two years. Only rookie RB's I'm targeting this year are Isiah Pead and David Wilson.

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The last two years I haven't gotten into any problems drafting rookie running backs. I wish it was because I was some sort of fantasy genius with perfect forsight but the reallity is that every body else in my leagues were so high on them compared to me, that I never got a chance to pick them up. Not even if I had reached a little bit. My luck I guess.

 

I probably value rookie RBs less than most people in general, but still I find it hard not to jump on the hype train this year.

I mean Trent Richardson is supposed to be the new AP and he by far the feature back in Cleveland and we all saw what Peyton Hillis did there so it can be done.

The latest I heard about the Bucs was that LeGarrette Blount still shows up late and still falls asleep during team meetings.

 

We basically have two talented rookie RBs that will get a lot of carries, are three downs backs, can catch passes out of the backfield and have very limited competition for their job (I might underestimate Blount, but i don't think he is with the Bucs at the beginning of next season). If there were ever a time to draft rookie RBs in these years it would be now. If they both fail miserable I am never drafting a rookie RB as a starter again.

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Wow, I knew Richardson was the offense's centerpiece last year, but I guess I never really looked into his stats that much. I didn't realize that he had ~2,000 yards and 24 total TDs last year! This in a defensive conference where the Georgia D made Doug Martin look pretty mediocre.

 

There's always some risk with a rookie RB, and that does apply to the RBs in this class (just look at how fantasy worthless all of the RBs outside of Murray and to a lesser extent Helu were last year, and as DMD's article suggested, is closer to the norm these days). Personally, I'm actually a little more sold on Wilson's potential right now than Martin, but workload is the question where Martin probably has a better opportunity to takeover a sizeable workload without injury in the short-term (though no guarantee either if Blount rebounds).

 

However, Richardson is just a different kind of animal.

 

I know it's not always smart to project based on where they were taken in the NFL draft, but even more than WRs who have a pretty stellar track record when taken around the top 5, it really speaks volumes to take a RB that early in this RB-devalued NFL today; And all indications are that it wasn't just Cleveland who had him that high on their board, so I wouldn't just call it desperation.

 

With his rare combo of (tremendous) strength and speed, I don't think the "best since Adrian Peterson" talk is out of line at all. I really like everything I see out of this kid...

 

 

To look at the worst scenario he may face, I think his performance against the LSU defense in the national championship is noteworthy.

(including blocks).. With LSU slated to have (I think) that whole starting defense NFL-bound, are there any here who would many dispute that their defense was more dominant against the competition (at 11 points a game, 2nd in nation, and only 2.6 YPC to RBs), than most all NFL teams against that competent Browns O-line?

 

Even though LSU did a good job of not letting Alabama have much on the ground in that game, Richardson still fought for tough yards, and when he finally got an opportunity, busted loose for a long game-winning TD.

 

I just have a hard time believing that NFL defenses will have a much easier time bottling him up. You can't teach strength and speed like that. So with the workload he's slated to get, I think a good training camp and preseason could easily vault him into the late first-round (especially with all of the other RBs after the top 3 carrying plenty of risk themselves).

Edited by delusions of grandeur
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First off, I am the biggest fanboy of Richardson's there is.

 

To look at the worst scenario he may face, I think his performance against the LSU defense in the national championship is noteworthy.
(including blocks).. With LSU slated to have (I think) that whole starting defense NFL-bound, are there any here who would many dispute that their defense was more dominant against the competition (at 11 points a game, 2nd in nation, and only 2.6 YPC to RBs), than most all NFL teams against that competent Browns O-line?

Absolutely. It's borderline delusional to think a college defense compares with any set of 11 NFL veterans. Any college team. I know they were great players and a great team, but they are college kids. Kids. NFL veterans are men, 27, 28 years old that have reached their physical prime and have years of experience to boot.

 

Cleveland's line is hardly competent. They were awful last year and they lost two starters from that team. Their best player is Joe Thomas, who garnered the comments "The reason for his drop in ranking had more to do with his run blocking", "he's definitely not a run blocker" and "I've never seen Joe Thomas maul nobody" during his NFL Top 100 comments. He's the only player I saw in the series with negative comments.

 

Wow, I knew Richardson was the offense's centerpiece last year, but I guess I never really looked into his stats that much. I didn't realize that he had ~2,000 yards and 24 total TDs last year! This in a defensive conference where the Georgia D made Doug Martin look pretty mediocre.

 

There's always some risk with a rookie RB, and that does apply to the RBs in this class (just look at how fantasy worthless all of the RBs outside of Murray and to a lesser extent Helu were last year, and as DMD's article suggested, is closer to the norm these days). Personally, I'm actually a little more sold on Wilson's potential right now than Martin, but workload is the question where Martin probably has a better opportunity to takeover a sizeable workload without injury in the short-term (though no guarantee either if Blount rebounds).

 

However, Richardson is just a different kind of animal.

 

I know it's not always smart to project based on where they were taken in the NFL draft, but even more than WRs who have a pretty stellar track record when taken around the top 5, it really speaks volumes to take a RB that early in this RB-devalued NFL today; And all indications are that it wasn't just Cleveland who had him that high on their board, so I wouldn't just call it desperation.

 

With his rare combo of (tremendous) strength and speed, I don't think the "best since Adrian Peterson" talk is out of line at all. I really like everything I see out of this kid...

 

You can't teach strength and speed like that. So with the workload he's slated to get, I think a good training camp and preseason could easily vault him into the late first-round (especially with all of the other RBs after the top 3 carrying plenty of risk themselves).

 

Again, I think Richardson is the best RB to come out since Bo Jackson. Better than LT. Better than Peterson. Better than Faulk. With rookie RB's though, it's not about talent. It's about (1) longevity and (2) pass protection. Rookies just don't get the workload necessary to be counted on. Even AP only had 238 carries as a rookie. Coaches just aren't going to toss the kid out there for 16 full NFL games. These guys play 11, 12 games in college and take 1/4 the physical punishment, they can't just come in and play a full load. They can hit in stretches, ala Jamaal Charles, but to expect that for 16 games isn't realistic, and the more he plays early the less you'll get late in the year when it's needed most.

 

Pass protection is a huge one too. I won't comment on Richardson's because I haven't scouted him enough to know what his base is; scouting reports were positive. Maybe this won't hold him back, but he's going to be playing with a rookie QB that needs to learn to read defenses on the fly while also learning to play under center more. I'm not betting my season on where his ADP will demand he be taken.

 

Dynasty league? Long-term keeper league? I'm all in, #1 overall pick, 50% auction budget, the whole 9 yards. But I say that knowing damn well I'm not going to see the return in year 1.

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Personally, I'm actually a little more sold on Wilson's potential right now than Martin, but workload is the question where Martin probably has a better opportunity to takeover a sizeable workload without injury in the short-term (though no guarantee either if Blount rebounds).

 

I read this little tidbit on Blount this morning...

 

RB LeGARRETTE BLOUNT

His lack of commitment was startling to coaches from the day he was claimed off waivers from the Titans an undrafted rookie in 2010. For the first two weeks after being acquired by Tampa Bay, Blount, who was suspended at Oregon for punching a Boise State player, never made it to work on time and compiled fines of more than $15,000. Exasperated, then-coach Raheem Morris and general manager Mark Dominik ordered him to hire a car service with a driver to wake him up in the morning and transport him less than 3 miles from his apartment to One Buc Place. After a few weeks, they canceled the car service for one day. And Blount was late. He continued to need a driver to get to work in 2011. But his poor preparation habits also spread to the meeting room, where coaches said he would sometimes fall asleep. On the field, Blount struggled to hold onto the football. He has fumbled nine times in two years, losing six, and rarely played on passing downs. A knee injury at San Francisco prevented Blount from playing in two games last season, and he finished with 781 yards (4.2 per rush average) and five touchdowns.

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First off, I am the biggest fanboy of Richardson's there is.

 

 

Absolutely. It's borderline delusional to think a college defense compares with any set of 11 NFL veterans. Any college team. I know they were great players and a great team, but they are college kids. Kids. NFL veterans are men, 27, 28 years old that have reached their physical prime and have years of experience to boot.

 

Cleveland's line is hardly competent. They were awful last year and they lost two starters from that team. Their best player is Joe Thomas, who garnered the comments "The reason for his drop in ranking had more to do with his run blocking", "he's definitely not a run blocker" and "I've never seen Joe Thomas maul nobody" during his NFL Top 100 comments. He's the only player I saw in the series with negative comments.

 

 

Again, I think Richardson is the best RB to come out since Bo Jackson. Better than LT. Better than Peterson. Better than Faulk. With rookie RB's though, it's not about talent. It's about (1) longevity and (2) pass protection. Rookies just don't get the workload necessary to be counted on. Even AP only had 238 carries as a rookie. Coaches just aren't going to toss the kid out there for 16 full NFL games. These guys play 11, 12 games in college and take 1/4 the physical punishment, they can't just come in and play a full load. They can hit in stretches, ala Jamaal Charles, but to expect that for 16 games isn't realistic, and the more he plays early the less you'll get late in the year when it's needed most.

 

Pass protection is a huge one too. I won't comment on Richardson's because I haven't scouted him enough to know what his base is; scouting reports were positive. Maybe this won't hold him back, but he's going to be playing with a rookie QB that needs to learn to read defenses on the fly while also learning to play under center more. I'm not betting my season on where his ADP will demand he be taken.

 

Dynasty league? Long-term keeper league? I'm all in, #1 overall pick, 50% auction budget, the whole 9 yards. But I say that knowing damn well I'm not going to see the return in year 1.

 

 

I'm curious where you get the bolded part from. Are you saying that the MEN in the NFL hit 4 times as hard as the KIDS in college?

 

No doubt 16 games in the NFL is a lot harder than 11-12 in college. Better athletes on defense, more games, etc. But 1/4 the physical punishment?

 

Also as far as the Browns O line I think competent is a fair assessment. Joe Thomas and Center Alex Mack have both been pro bowlers. The two players they lost from last year's OL were not that good. I don't see how a team with 2 of 5 OL on recent Pro Bowl teams is considered awful.

 

 

One plus Richardson signed his contract and will be in camp from day one (now the Browns need Weeden to sign)

 

I agree with you and others, these guys carry a lot of risk in a redraft, and probably won't return on their ADP in a keeper/dynasty during year one.

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I'm curious where you get the bolded part from.

It was an exaggeration for sure, but intended for emphasis. (Fewer games) x (smaller guys) x (less strength) x (lesser technique) = some lesser degree of pounding. Hard to quantify but I probably went a bit far on making the point.

 

Also as far as the Browns O line I think competent is a fair assessment. Joe Thomas and Center Alex Mack have both been pro bowlers. The two players they lost from last year's OL were not that good. I don't see how a team with 2 of 5 OL on recent Pro Bowl teams is considered awful.

Based on performance and watching them. #28 in rushing yards, #31 in yards per rush, #32 in rushing TD's (4!). Every time I looked up they were getting met at the line of scrimmage. I know some of that is based on the RB talent, and Richardson will certainly fix that, but they were still 23rd in Adjusted Line Yards by Footballoutsiders. I take some of what they do with a grain of salt, but at a high level their numbers say a lot. They also haven't done squat to replace Pashos or bring in anyone other than a 4th rounder to address any of their line issues. It can be fixed, Mack and Thomas are certainly cornerstones (and young), and their other guys could step up, but in the AFC North, in the NFL, they aren't even close yet.

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I'm liking Doug Martin a whole lot more than Richardson considering how much later Martin is going in drafts. I'm skeptical of Richardson coming in and instantly becoming AP. And I'm not buying him getting enough carries this year to ever be able to live up to his draft position.

 

I like Doug Martin because he is like Ray Rice. He can catch, pass block, and run very effectively. I fear his draft position escalating as the off-season progresses though.

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Liking Ballard as a late sleeper in redraft leagues. Neither guy in front of him has taken the starting job and owned it despite numerous chances to do so. Ballard runs very hard between the tackles, has a nose for the end zone, catches very well out of the backfield, pass blocks well, and has the size and attitude to match what his HC is looking for in a running back. I like him more to make a splash this year than any rookie not named Richardson or Martin, and it's close with Martin. Keep a close eye on him in TC.

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I like Richardson every bit as much as he's running behind Joe Thomas as I do for his own ability. Don't underestimate what that does for him.

 

You might want to check out flemingd's link posted above about his run blocking skills. Like you, I assumed that Thomas should be a big asset for Richardson, but then I watched the clip. When they dog a part of your game in what amounts to a puff piece, it sort of says something.

 

I'm sure Thomas isn't a bad run blocker per se, but it seems rather clear that it is not his forte.

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Unless I get insane value for one of them, I'll probably steer clear of all of them. I'm also tried of taking chances on them and getting burned.

 

With that in mind, I'm curious to see what happens to them in my auction draft. Value is different when it comes down to what you're willing to pay. It only takes one guy in a standard draft to want a guy like Richardson enough to take him off the board in the top 10 picks. It takes two guys to want him badly enough to have him fetch a top 10 price.

 

And, FWIW (and I realize it's not much), neither Richardson or Martin has been fetching big money in any mock auction I've done thus far.

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