Auction Draft Strategies

[gbpackers]

Im in a Yahoo league this year, and we're starting to do an auction draft. What are your strategies in doing auction drafts? This is my first time, so Im not really sure how I want to proceed.

 

My gut feeling leads me to overspend on Foster AND R Rice, and find bargains in other positions.

 

We have a $200 cap, and use positions of qb, wr, wr, rb, rb, wr/rb, te, k, d and dp (6 bench).

Here is my gameplan (I think):

 

 

Arian Foster (Yahoo avg. price has him listed at $50)

Ray Rice ($49)

Tony Romo ($13)

 

Even if I overspend by $4-5 on each player, I could end up with those 3 at roughly $120, leaving me $80 to spend on the remaining 13 players. Doesnt sound like much left over, but Im getting by far the top 2 players in fantasy.

 

I feel like every year there are wrs that come out of nowhere to impress. I really dont feel like there is a big difference in wrs between #2 and #16. (Nicks, Fitz, Roddy, Andre, Cruz, Marshall, Jennings, Welker, AJ Green, Julio, Wallace, Nelson, Austin, Smith, Bowe) Ill let all of those guys go to other teams, and find some bargains later on.

 

Suggestions, gameplans, opinions?

[delfamdelfam]

No offense but those values are way off IMO. Rice and Foster will both go in the $70 dollar range and Foster might even hit $80.

[Pope Flick]

Have Az tell you about the two dollar cock block.

[detlef]

No offense but those values are way off IMO. Rice and Foster will both go in the $70 dollar range and Foster might even hit $80.

 

This, for starters.

 

Beyond that, I've got to say that the Huddle is way, way different in terms of its valuation than either ESPN or Yahoo. Not even who is valued highly (which would be the equivalent of the basic cheat sheets having guys in a different order, but they also differ greatly in the drop-off from studs to 2nd tier and from one position to the next.

 

Top QBs, for instance, will all go for more than what you'll be prepared to pay if you're using the Huddle cheat sheet. Each and every mock I've done, Rodgers, Brees, Brady, and Stafford went for $15-$20 more than Huddle budget. On the other hand, guys like Foster, Rice, and Shady will go for less. Mathews, McFadden, and Richardson for far less. Meanwhile, the next tier of guys at WR and RB will all go for more than the Huddle budget. There's a number of WRs, for instance, that the huddle has at $2-$5 that you'll likely not get for less than $10-$15.

 

Obviously, I'm more prepared to go with what the Huddle is saying than Yahoo or ESPN, but in a format that depends on the market, it does bear mention that things may not play out the way you want them to if you're the only one looking to work off that sheet.

 

I'll say this much, at least in mocks I've done, I've ended up liking my teams better when I laid off the big guns and feasted in the middle of the draft. However, in the last mock I did, I laid off too many guys that were going for fair prices (but still expensive) and let guys get away with studs without breaking the bank, so the problem was, by the time I was holding enough cash to get my whomever I wanted, the pickings were too slim. If nobody is spending too much money on studs, you'll get burned for being cheap.

 

In other words, going in, hell-bent on doing one thing or another is just as bad an idea in an auction as it is to go into a snake draft saying "I'm going to go RB/RB/WR/QB" or something like that. You've got to go with the flow.

[Scooby's Hubby]

The golden rule ...

 

he who has the gold makes the rules.

 

Make sure you have money in the latter 2/3rds of the draft so that you get all the guys you like while the other owners can only spend 1-2 on their remaining positions. Getting guys like Roddy White, Vincent Jackson, Steve Smith, etc. will be cheaper than you think, b/c everyone else has overspent.

[delfamdelfam]

 

That's the problem I've had when mocking, TheHuddle's values are so different than other sites and If I'm the only one working off TheHuddle sheets I'm not sure what fair value is.

 

 

Also make sure to enough money in the last few rounds to bet more than the minimum. Everyone will be betting the $1 minimum at the end but if you can bet $2 or $3 you'll get every player you want in the latter rounds.

[Whiskey Pimp]

 

Also make sure to enough money in the last few rounds to bet more than the minimum. Everyone will be betting the $1 minimum at the end but if you can bet $2 or $3 you'll get every player you want in the latter rounds.

 

 

I've always wondered about the best way to handle the end of the auction. What do you guys do when all owners that are left can only bid $1? Does the person who has control (won the last bid) just get to pick the rest of their $1 players to fill up their roster?

[delfamdelfam]

I've always wondered about the best way to handle the end of the auction. What do you guys do when all owners that are left can only bid $1? Does the person who has control (won the last bid) just get to pick the rest of their $1 players to fill up their roster?

 

I didn't think the person who won the last bid had control. Isn't it serpentine style where each person nominates a player and bids. I assume if every is only at $1 bids it would just go like a serpentine draft.

[gbpackers]

No offense but those values are way off IMO. Rice and Foster will both go in the $70 dollar range and Foster might even hit $80.

 

 

I watched a buddy of mine do an auction draft last year (in this same league) and here were some of the values:

 

AP went for $57

Rodgers: $57

LeSean: $41

Ray Rice: $53

CJ: $51

Vick: $49

Roddy: $45

Foster: $55

 

So I have a really hard time believing (since it will be all the same guys from last year, Im the only new guy) that guys like Foster and LeSean will go up to $70-80 range.

 

Im very confident I could get Foster and Rice for around $110-120.

Edited August 6, 2012 by gbpackers

[Papajohn]

I don't know if is an actually strategy, but I usually nominate players I know other people will overpay for and then hopefully be left wth more money than the rest (or most of them) later on.

Players like Brandon Lloyd and Brandon Marshall would be obvious candidates this year. It only takes two owners to consider Brandon Marshall a top 5 WR before he gets very expensive.

Edited August 6, 2012 by Papajohn

[delfamdelfam]

I watched a buddy of mine do an auction draft last year (in this same league) and here were some of the values:

 

AP went for $57

Rodgers: $57

LeSean: $41

Ray Rice: $53

CJ: $51

Vick: $49

Roddy: $45

Foster: $55

 

So I have a really hard time believing (since it will be all the same guys from last year, Im the only new guy) that guys like Foster and LeSean will go up to $70-80 range.

 

Im very confident I could get Foster and Rice for around $110-120.

 

well you know your league better than me, if you can get Foster and Rice both for $110 I'd do it in a heartbeat.

[delfamdelfam]

I don't know if is an actually strategy, but I usually nominate players I know other people will overpay for and then hopefully be left wth more money than the rest (or most of them) later on.

Players like Brandon Lloyd and Brandon Marshall would be obvious candidates this year. It only takes two owners to consider Brandon Marshall a top 5 WR before he gets very expensive.

 

Yeah this is the strategy I usually go with as well. Like this year I'd probably put Julio Jones as the first person up since I know he's going to be really overpriced.

[White lightning]

One thing to be mindful of is the "premium" price the last player of a Tier will cost. For example, if you're hell bent on getting a tier 1 RB/QB/TE and if Rogers/Brady, Foster/McCoy, and Gronk are already off the board, you might overpay for Brees/Rice/Graham because there will be others dead set on a Tier 1 QB/RB/TE.

 

As a result, if I really like Brees/McCoy/Graham I might nominate them 1st because I can get them $5-10 cheaper because the other managers are thinking "oh, well, Rogers/Foster etc are still on the board."

Edited August 6, 2012 by White lightning

[bostonsoxandy]

I love auctions, especially all the strategy that goes in to them. Try a couple out on ESPN live draft lobby to get a feel. Some cardinal sins are paying over $1 for defense or a kicker, or nominating a player you want. Respect those two rules at all times.

 

If you don't know who to nominate and you don't have a kicker/defense yet, keep nominating kickers and defenses unitl you land one of each for $1. It is the most brilliant nomination strategy that I have ever used. If no one bids you get the #1 ranked defense/kicker for $1, the aboslute best you could do, or the kicker/defense goes for more than $1 to someone else. Either way you are coming out ahead.

 

 

As for bidding don't bid people up if you don't want the player, especially high profile guys like MJD. And also make sure you adjust to what is happening. If you have your mindset on getting Romo, but he is nominated right away and people are bidding 20, 30, 35 for him, you gotta adjust and plan differently.

 

Be confident at all times, come in prepared (using the huddle ideally) and leave satisfied. Have players you target in every tier for every position that you would be happy with. That way you don't get stuck, or need, any certain player.

 

Good luck!

[gbpackers]

well you know your league better than me, if you can get Foster and Rice both for $110 I'd do it in a heartbeat.

 

 

Ive played in 4-5 mock auction drafts on Yahoo so far... and everytime Ive been able to get Foster/Rice for between $110-120. Would you still get those 2 for the $120 range?

[delfamdelfam]

Ive played in 4-5 mock auction drafts on Yahoo so far... and everytime Ive been able to get Foster/Rice for between $110-120. Would you still get those 2 for the $120 range?

 

yeah probably, especially since you only start 9 players instead of 10 it makes it much easier. Just try to get some cheap high upside WR's and you'd be set. Guys like Stevie Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Eric Decker, Antonio Brown, should all be good WR's you can get for fairly cheap.

[White lightning]

http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?/topic/247834-auction-strategy-tips-and-pitfalls/page__hl__%20auction%20%20draft%20%20strategy__st__25

 

Check out this older (2009) thread. It has some good advise from Huddle veterans. DMD posted his article regarding auctions listing 3 different approaches. "Go deep" - draft 2-3 superstars and hope that carries the day. "Go wide" - draft 1 superstar, 1-2 good players, and fill the rest of your squad with 3rd tier players. "Go long" - wait till the first 35-40 players are off the board and load up on potential breakout players.

 

I think the "go deep" strategy may be even more viable today considering the lack of depth at RB, and the relative depth every where else. As gbpackers and defl said, you could shoot for Rice/Foster then go with M. Ryan, F. Davis/Pettigrew (sp), and the Deckers, Maclin, Waynes of the world.

[bostonsoxandy]

yeah probably, especially since you only start 9 players instead of 10 it makes it much easier. Just try to get some cheap high upside WR's and you'd be set. Guys like Stevie Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Eric Decker, Antonio Brown, should all be good WR's you can get for fairly cheap.

 

 

Hell yeah he should go for Rice/Foster for 120. That's a great deal! So that gives him 80 to play with....I'd definetely spend 20-30 on a sure-fire WR1. WR carousels on FF teams are no fun. I went through it last year and it sucks. Make sure to get one sure thing, elite WR. Then maybe 10-15 on a QB like Matt Ryan, Tony romo etc., 1-5 on a low-end upside TE like Tamme, Fred Davis, thats a championship team

[SecondString]

I do a couple of auctions every year in two locals, here are a few things I've learned:

1. As mentioned earlier, nominate players you don't want, but that you know others will bid on. The more of those you can get out there before your target players are on the block, the more $$ will have been spent overall, making it more likely that you will get a better price on the players you do want.
    
   
2. Having said that, it is likely that there will come a time in the draft where you need to know how much you will have to spend on one particular player, so that you'll know if you have enough $$ to fill another position. For instance, you only have two slots left and you want Isaac Redman really badly for one slot, and would like to have Titus Young for the other. You do not want Young to be nominated before Redman, because then you'll feel like you have to pass on Young to save your remaining $$ for Redman. In that case, go ahead and nominate Redman, you may get him and still have enough to get both.
    
   
3. Make a "short list" for each position of the players you are interested in. For each position, make your list as long as how many you believe will be drafted for each position, but have a cut-off line separating desireables and non-desireables. Rank even the undesireables, so you are prepared for worst case scenarios, but hopefully you walk away fom the draft with a roster full of only "desireables". For instance, if it is a 10-team league, and you believe each team will draft a QB and a backup, your QB list, ranked in order of who you want the most, should have about 22-24 names (2 QB's per team x 10 teams plus a small buffer). Each name should have a "projected $" amount (what you believe they will go for).
    
   
4. If there are only 8 QB's that you have listed as "desireables", and the bidding is going too high so you keep passing as a result, and now there are only two QB's remaining fom your list, you gotta go get one of 'em, even if it means overspending. Same for any other key position, don't clutch onto your money until all of your desireables are gone. When it gets like that, it means that a lot of other owners will have overspent as well (assuming your projections are okay) and things will tend to even up in the end. And it does you no good toward the end of the draft to have a lot of money but no quality players to buy.
    
   
5. Make about half a dozen "roster models" before the draft, as a game plan, representing different scenarios that you could accept. Sample:
   

 

QB - E.Manning - $25

RB - McCoy - $53

RB - Martin - $19

WR - A. Brown - $23

WR - Cruz - $34

TE - Pettigrew - $13

FLEX - Decker - $10

D/ST - $3

K - $1

4 Bench Spots - $19

Total: $200

 

6. Word to the wise...those on-line mock drafts are not such great practice, don't expect your actual draft to be nearly as easy.

 

7. Be flexible...you can plan your ass off, but it's never gonna go according to plan, I promise.

 

Good luck.

Edited August 7, 2012 by SecondString

[detlef]

I'm no more a fan of the "roster model" idea as I am of drafting a starting line-up in a snake draft. In other words, I believe the draft or auction should be about accumulating as many good players as you can with barely any regard to position.

 

Why? Because history shows us our collective batting average for guessing who is going to end up as worthy starters is simply not that good. Mind you, it also shows us that, while unimpressive, the % we get it right is higher with players who are ranked or have a good ADP.

 

With that in mind, why wouldn't you just try win with volume? Take as many guys that have a good chance of being good at their position as you can and figure it out once the games start getting played and we actually learn who's producing. That's what trades and WW are for. You also may get lucky and be the guy who bought Cam Newton for $1 last year. Hell, I paid something like $2 for Eli.

 

Mocking out positional budgets, just like filling out your starting line-up before you draft a "back-up" at a position likely means passing up on players you feel more confident about in favor guys you don't. Because, again, it pretends that your roster is going to look anything like what you think it will come week 8. And, while that might be the case for studs, it is rather unlikely for guys you draft expecting to be your RB2/WR2/Flex.

[SecondString]

I'm no more a fan of the "roster model" idea as I am of drafting a starting line-up in a snake draft. In other words, I believe the draft or auction should be about accumulating as many good players as you can with barely any regard to position.

 

Why? Because history shows us our collective batting average for guessing who is going to end up as worthy starters is simply not that good. Mind you, it also shows us that, while unimpressive, the % we get it right is higher with players who are ranked or have a good ADP.

 

With that in mind, why wouldn't you just try win with volume? Take as many guys that have a good chance of being good at their position as you can and figure it out once the games start getting played and we actually learn who's producing. That's what trades and WW are for. You also may get lucky and be the guy who bought Cam Newton for $1 last year. Hell, I paid something like $2 for Eli.

 

Mocking out positional budgets, just like filling out your starting line-up before you draft a "back-up" at a position likely means passing up on players you feel more confident about in favor guys you don't. Because, again, it pretends that your roster is going to look anything like what you think it will come week 8. And, while that might be the case for studs, it is rather unlikely for guys you draft expecting to be your RB2/WR2/Flex.

 

Making a roster model doesn't preclude any of those concepts. It just helps you to get an idea of what your team might look like based on projections. And no matter what our "collective batting average for guessing who is going to end up as worthy starters" is, you will need to go into any draft with an idea of who you will target and who you will be passing on. It's just a tool that I find helpful.

[detlef]

Making a roster model doesn't preclude any of those concepts. It just helps you to get an idea of what your team might look like based on projections. And no matter what our "collective batting average for guessing who is going to end up as worthy starters" is, you will need to go into any draft with an idea of who you will target and who you will be passing on. It's just a tool that I find helpful.

 

Perhaps we're talking about different things, because I absolutely believe in the bolded quote above. I absolutely have guys that would have to be nearly free for me to buy and guys I, perhaps, am prepared to pay more than most to get.

 

But I was commenting on the mock starting line-up that I saw in your post and, perhaps primarily, DMD's position allocation model. I simply don't agree at all with going that way. Saying you plan to spend x amount on your QB spots and x amount on RBs, etc means one of two things. 1) You're going to do something stupid and pay too much for a guy who is not worth it at the expense of not paying enough for a guy who may have been a bargain but broke your budget at that position. or 2) You're going to do what you should and ignore what you think you wanted to pay for each position and simply accumulate as many good players as you can for the money you have.

 

I do suppose there's also 3) You get lucky and happen to find guys at each position that are worth what you paid and happen to fit your positional budgets.

 

I suppose that, if the only way a system works is by being lucky, I'm not that into it.

 

This is not a store. You don't know what any of these guys actually cost.

 

ETA: Perhaps we end up with a different version of the same thing, mine born from looking back at mocks that I played different ways. Letting the draft play out with slightly different intentions and then looking back at the teams I ended up with and deciding if I like what I see. If going big on studs keeps ending up with missing out on every mid-tier guy that I like, then I may rethink that. If passing on the studs leaves me entirely without game changers because nobody bid up the top players then maybe I re-think that.

Edited August 7, 2012 by detlef

[SecondString]

No, I agree that no way are you going to rigidly assign a budget for each position The roster model amounts are specific to that player (not position), based on a projection. That is why I suggest multiple roster models that you would be satisfied with, to get an idea of what you could end up with if the draft goes close to plan.

 

You still need to be flexible enough to, say if you targeted getting Rodgers or Brady in the $50 range, but they went for $60 and you passed, spend $18 on Matt Ryan and use those $$$ to upgrade ar WR or RB. One of your roster models may have that scenario.

 

And when you say "win with volume", I assume you mean volume of quality. I agree with that too, meaning if you can get an exceptional bargain on a quality player, grab him regardless of positional needs. You can work that out with trades if need be.

 

Many other concepts and ideas for auctions, I just tried to list a few that I thought would help an auction beginner.

[detlef]

No, I agree that no way are you going to rigidly assign a budget for each position The roster model amounts are specific to that player (not position), based on a projection. That is why I suggest multiple roster models that you would be satisfied with, to get an idea of what you could end up with if the draft goes close to plan.

 

You still need to be flexible enough to, say if you targeted getting Rodgers or Brady in the $50 range, but they went for $60 and you passed, spend $18 on Matt Ryan and use those $$$ to upgrade ar WR or RB. One of your roster models may have that scenario.

 

And when you say "win with volume", I assume you mean volume of quality. I agree with that too, meaning if you can get an exceptional bargain on a quality player, grab him regardless of positional needs. You can work that out with trades if need be.

 

Many other concepts and ideas for auctions, I just tried to list a few that I thought would help an auction beginner.

 

Sounds like my issue is primarily with DMD's positional budget deal and mistakenly lumped you in with that. My bad.

 

And, yes, that's what I mean by "win with volume". Nearly every good team I've ever drafted was the result of going that way. When I've got caught chasing positions, on the other hand, it's not worked out.

[SecondString]

Sounds like my issue is primarily with DMD's positional budget deal and mistakenly lumped you in with that. My bad.

 

And, yes, that's what I mean by "win with volume". Nearly every good team I've ever drafted was the result of going that way. When I've got caught chasing positions, on the other hand, it's not worked out.

 

No worries, I probably didn't do the greatest job explaining in the first place.