Auction Draft Strategies

[Thews40]

In the early rounds, nominate players with high draft positions you don't want... sucks up money. Nominate and pick a kicker and a defense for a few bucks early... this saves you from waiting two rounds in the end. Don't blow your wad in the first two rounds... higher value later. When a player comes up you have to have, pony up... you'll kick yourself later if you have "extra" money in the end.

[Grimm74]

Im in a Yahoo league this year, and we're starting to do an auction draft. What are your strategies in doing auction drafts? This is my first time, so Im not really sure how I want to proceed.

 

My gut feeling leads me to overspend on Foster AND R Rice, and find bargains in other positions.

 

We have a $200 cap, and use positions of qb, wr, wr, rb, rb, wr/rb, te, k, d and dp (6 bench).

Here is my gameplan (I think):

 

 

Arian Foster (Yahoo avg. price has him listed at $50)

Ray Rice ($49)

Tony Romo ($13)

 

Even if I overspend by $4-5 on each player, I could end up with those 3 at roughly $120, leaving me $80 to spend on the remaining 13 players. Doesnt sound like much left over, but Im getting by far the top 2 players in fantasy.

 

I feel like every year there are wrs that come out of nowhere to impress. I really dont feel like there is a big difference in wrs between #2 and #16. (Nicks, Fitz, Roddy, Andre, Cruz, Marshall, Jennings, Welker, AJ Green, Julio, Wallace, Nelson, Austin, Smith, Bowe) Ill let all of those guys go to other teams, and find some bargains later on.

 

Suggestions, gameplans, opinions?

 

 

Do not forget about the Tate Factor. You are going to want him on your roster. Problem is he will cost you a bit more this year in two ways. First off if I am in your league I know he is an important cuff who you are willing to pay for. When I am driving up the price, I am not overly concerned with getting "stuck" with him by accident. Secondly, Tate is producing so his value is bumped up a bit.

 

It is hard for me to give you my estimate of his value since I am in a keeper league(5 keepers) Most keepers are on discount and sometimes a huge discount this inflates players costs at the draft. I always lay out a budget on key positions WR QB RB with many scenarios. Come draft time Ill pivot in a heartbeat when I see value.

[slim4MVP]

The biggest thing it to make sure you have a budget. I actually like to bring 2 or 3 different budgets. Say your first budget has you getting Graham or Gronk and then people in the draft are over paying for them and you can;t get them. Then you can go to one of your other budgets and not waste time. Things can move quickly and you don;t want to be caught crunching numbers or unsure of what you plan is. Also i make sure I tier my positions so I know names to look for at various values...and it help you notice trends and potential value in players that are still on the board. I've ran my own auction league for 4 years now and every year with more experience you tweak your strategy and I find I prepare a little more each year. THere is a great podcast out there called Fantasy Football Auctioneer that is on iTunes that has some really good auction specific information. It's the only podcast i've found that is dedicated to auction only. Just remember to prepare as much as possible and stay flexible so you can jump on trends that you see developing as the draft progresses. Also don;t pay that much attention to ESPN values....they are rarely updated and they take into account people doing mocks that quit halfway through so ther are stupid values found later in those drafts that aren't realistic.

[bigbrownsbeatdown]

Last year in my auction leage foster went for $55 and rice went for $60. Fosters value was down last year due to injury and he is considered number one overall this year so i would expcet his price to inflate at least $10. Rices value seems about right at 60 again this year, in my opinion, so about $125 should land you rice and foster. But this is totally dependent on how YOUR league values them. For example last year chris johnson went for 70 and ap went for 80 in my league. Outrageous in my opinion, but its how my league valued them. There were guys that i wanted last year but simpliy wouldnt pay $10 more than i thought they were worth. It absolutely pays to be flexible in an auction draft. Sure, go after a few guys you like and spend a couple extra bucks if need be but dont go overboard. If you are boing to spend the extra money spend it on top tier talent, instead of getting stuck overpaying for the last of the second tier guys. Having a list of values and tiers is the most valuable thing you can have with you at an auction draft.

[flemingd]

Last year in my auction leage foster went for $55 and rice went for $60.

Need to know details before this means much. What is the total budget for owner, and are keepers involved at bargain prices?

[Pip's Invitation]

Most of the important stuff has already been covered, but I'll add two things:

 

1. The importance of tiering cannot be understated. The reason is that you don't want to be put in a situation where you are bidding on the last guy in a certain tier at a certain position. Those guys are most likely to be the subject of bidding wars, and thus most likely to be overpaid for. So, if your plan is to get one of Foster, Rice, or McCoy, get the first or second one that's thrown out, not the third.

 

2. While it is generally a good idea to throw out guys you don't want at the beginning, if you have one of the first nominations in the first round, throw out a stud you DO want. In my experience, everyone is cautious during the first few bids, and those guys sometimes go for less than what you'd think.

[detlef]

OK, and I realize these are just mocks, so there's that. However, I've been trying the "throw out random guys you want for cheap early" strategy and it's simply not working that well. Sure, I tend to get them for a decent price, often less than I budgeted for them, but every single time, by the end of the thing, someone is getting a better player at the same position for about the same price.

 

I tried with TE Fred Davis and did get him for $5 (which seemed fine at the time), but A Hernandez lasted until the end and went for $7 and J Finley went for maybe a buck more. Things like that. There've been other cases like this that I just can't recall. But I'm prepared to chalk that plan up to something that sounds like it should work but doesn't so much.

[flemingd]

OK, and I realize these are just mocks, so there's that. However, I've been trying the "throw out random guys you want for cheap early" strategy and it's simply not working that well. Sure, I tend to get them for a decent price, often less than I budgeted for them, but every single time, by the end of the thing, someone is getting a better player at the same position for about the same price.

 

I tried with TE Fred Davis and did get him for $5 (which seemed fine at the time), but A Hernandez lasted until the end and went for $7 and J Finley went for maybe a buck more. Things like that. There've been other cases like this that I just can't recall. But I'm prepared to chalk that plan up to something that sounds like it should work but doesn't so much.

 

It works better at RB and WR. QB and TE have much more depth, so you'll have fewer owners at that stage of the draft that are legit competition for Hernandez. You yourself have Davis, for example, so can't really bid Hernandez up too much or you'll get caught with a 2nd TE (that I assume you can't start) and dollars on the bench that you could have spent poaching rookie RB's or sleeper WR's you like late.

[detlef]

It works better at RB and WR. QB and TE have much more depth, so you'll have fewer owners at that stage of the draft that are legit competition for Hernandez. You yourself have Davis, for example, so can't really bid Hernandez up too much or you'll get caught with a 2nd TE (that I assume you can't start) and dollars on the bench that you could have spent poaching rookie RB's or sleeper WR's you like late.

 

Makes sense.

[jdub1617]

I switched my league over to a auction league last year and I did horrible. I came in with the same approach that the OP is talking about. I came into the draft assuming I could slightly overpay for 3 guys and work with the $$ left over. I become so emotionally committed to my plan that I overspent on my first guy and couldn't get the other 2. I was so frustrated, the rest of my draft was pathetic. It was the worst draft of my entire fantasy career.

 

My suggestion and my approach this year, know who you like but don't commit or tell yourself you're for sure getting anyone. Always always always look for value. Meaning, even if a player wasn't really on your radar, if he's going cheap for a good price take it!

[bostonsoxandy]

I switched my league over to a auction league last year and I did horrible. I came in with the same approach that the OP is talking about. I came into the draft assuming I could slightly overpay for 3 guys and work with the $$ left over. I become so emotionally committed to my plan that I overspent on my first guy and couldn't get the other 2. I was so frustrated, the rest of my draft was pathetic. It was the worst draft of my entire fantasy career.

 

My suggestion and my approach this year, know who you like but don't commit or tell yourself you're for sure getting anyone. Always always always look for value. Meaning, even if a player wasn't really on your radar, if he's going cheap for a good price take it!

 

 

I don't like the "don't commit to anyone or anything" philosophy. I am adjusting to the draft, but if I have a sleeper that I love and know is going to break out, I'm getting him, period. There is always a couple guys that I fall in love with, and I go in thinking, screw it, I don't care if it takes $20, I'm walking out with this guy because I know he will finish top-10. A la Ray Rice and Foster when they both broke out. A la Jimmy Graham last year, although I had 0 competition for him so I got him for a buck anyway

 

No idea who that guy is going to be this year.

[flemingd]

Makes sense.

 

I'm not very satisfied with my earlier explanation so I'll try again to convey my thoughts. First, you're getting trumped by section 2 of the "throw out guys you don't like early" strategy. When people do that they not only get opponents to burn money on guys they don't want, but they burn roster spots too. That's the aspect I was trying to explain.

 

Second, you actually are seeing the desired result, but doing it with the wrong mindset. This strategy isn't an emotional one, it's an economic one, and you need a heart of stone to pull it off. This strategy applies when you really don't care if you're getting a guy you love, you are trying to get a value play and save some bucks. That guy paid 40% more for his TE than you did. Extrapolate that out to QB now. You throw out Tony Romo and get him for $20 and later on Eli goes for $28. That's also a 40% difference, it's just that $8 weighs more than $2 does. But if you pull that $2 move on 3-4 picks as you fly under the radar, all of a sudden when dollar derby hits you have $8 that no one else does, and when they start throwing out their sleeper dollar picks that you love you can $2 them to death.

[Thews40]

I'm not very satisfied with my earlier explanation so I'll try again to convey my thoughts. First, you're getting trumped by section 2 of the "throw out guys you don't like early" strategy. When people do that they not only get opponents to burn money on guys they don't want, but they burn roster spots too. That's the aspect I was trying to explain.

 

I fail to see the logic in this. If others pay for players you don't want, pushing players you do want later in the auction, potential competitors have less money to bid. In theory, if all the players you wanted were pushed to later rounds, if you had money to buy them, you'd get them cheaper. If you already blew your wad, then it doesn't work.

Edited August 14, 2012 by Thews40

[flemingd]

I fail to see the logic in this. If others pay for players you don't want, pushing players you do want later in the auction, potential competitors have less money to bid. In theory, if all the players you wanted were pushed to later rounds, if you had money to buy them, you'd get them cheaper. If you already blew your wad, then it doesn't work.

 

Not sure what you're asking. I didn't reference blowing your wad early, my point you underlined was that if you throw out guys you don't want, someone else will fill their roster with them. Specifically to Detlef's point, he bid on a TE and when Hernandez came out later, couldn't really bid on another one because he burned his roster spot on Davis.

[detlef]

OK, so I'm going to throw out another thing I've learned that sort of bucks conventional wisdom.

 

People seem to make a big deal about not leaving money on the table. And, in general, that makes sense. Technically, if you had it to do over again, you would have stayed in the Jordy Nelson bid for a few bucks more and got him for the extra $5 that is useless to you now.

 

Of course, at the time, you had no idea what the rest of the draft was going to look like. And, sometimes, being the last guy with money left means it's impossible for you to spend it all anyway. Because nobody can bid against you.

 

So, I think this whole concept is a bit overrated.

 

The few drafts where I've decided to see what sort of guys I'd be able to poach at the end of the draft by keeping the hammer and going into everyone else's dollar derby with $10-15, I've been very pleased with the results. Ending up with a bench full of guys who I feel are quite promising and not having to worry about playing the game of being afraid to throw a guy out for bid that I want, because he may get snagged from me, but also knowing that's the only way I can get him because I can't raise.

[Thews40]

Not sure what you're asking. I didn't reference blowing your wad early, my point you underlined was that if you throw out guys you don't want, someone else will fill their roster with them. Specifically to Detlef's point, he bid on a TE and when Hernandez came out later, couldn't really bid on another one because he burned his roster spot on Davis.

 

I'm still not following your logic, as teams filling their rosters (for big $) with players you don't want is the objective. When players you do want are nominated by someone else, you have to bid on them to get them.

[flemingd]

I'm still not following your logic, as teams filling their rosters (for big $) with players you don't want is the objective. When players you do want are nominated by someone else, you have to bid on them to get them.

 

Yes, but that's beyond your control and entails a different strategy than what's being discussed here. It's worth its own thread though, as preparing for and handling this situation is probably where most owners make the most mistakes.

[Thews40]

Yes, but that's beyond your control and entails a different strategy than what's being discussed here. It's worth its own thread though, as preparing for and handling this situation is probably where most owners make the most mistakes.

This thread is about auction draft strategy and this is a strategy. Unless you plan on blowing your $$ early, it is in your best interest to have the players you do want fall, and grab value when it comes up.

 

Here's something one may consider... let's say you don't want to pay for Arian Foster, so you throw out Ben Tate before Foster comes up. Whoever does want Foster will pony up larger. Throw out the unpredictable and see what happens.