Trading your top picks

[Bronco Billy]

This is a spinoff from a discussion that detlef and I were having in the Bowe thread.

 

Assumption: 12 team league, ppr, start 1/2/3/1 with 1 flex and a K, 16 man rosters.

 

You trade your 1.04, 6.09, and 8.09 for team A's 3.02, 4.11, and 5.02. You then trade your 2.09 and 7.04 for team B's 3.10 and 5.10. Per pick value calculators you have actually lost a little value in both trades, so they are both feasible and reasonable.

 

That leaves you with:

3.02, 3.04, 3.10

4.09, 4.11

5.02, 5.04, 5.10

And all yOur own 9th thru 16th round picks.

 

A team drafted using those picks, based upon ADPs listed currently for those league parameters at mfl.com might look like this (no players beyond the 8th round were taken from the same round per ADP)

 

Matt Schaub (post 8th)

Josh Freeman (post 8th)

Joe Flacco (post 8th)

 

Darren Sproles (3.02)

Fred Jackson (3.10)

Reggie Bush (4.09)

Robert Turbin (post 8th)

 

Brandon Marshall (3.04)

Dwayne Bowe (5.02)

Vincent Jackson (5.04)

Brandon Lloyd (5.10)

Danny Amendola (post 8th)

 

Aaron Hernandez (4.11)

Coby Fleener (post 8th)

Dwayne Allen (post 8th)

 

Keecker (very late)

 

Now, there are obviously a lot of other permutations (for instance pick R White or Jennings instead of Marshall, etc) but I think this is a team that could win a lot of games in a FF league.

 

There seems to be a ton of value sitting in rounds 3 through 5 this year, and you might be able to build one hell of a team by optimizing those rounds.

 

Thoughts?

 

 

Edited August 8, 2012 by Bronco Billy

[detlef]

Ending up with some version of that is why I've been liking the teams I've gotten when I've laid off the high dollar players in mock auctions (unless they're simply not getting bid up very high, then going this route has blown up in my face). Mind you, putting personal opinions on specific players aside, of course, and getting guys who are generally as coveted as the ones you've chosen in your example.

 

In terms of a snake, however, I've simply never been in a league that had much trade action prior to drafts. Seriously, I recall trying on a number of occasions and have only managed one, and one nowhere near as ambitious as what you're talking about.

 

ETA:

That said, I'd be concerned about the QB position if I was going in with the guys you have there. I'd probably trade one of those RB/WRs you took in the 3-5th for an upgrade there.

Edited August 8, 2012 by detlef

[MTSuper7]

Initial reaction: This team strikes me as a bubble team, maybe first round exit from the playoffs. The problem with trading down is that you don't end up with any safe/stud picks. 1.04 gets you either an every down proven stud RB or the best QB in the league. Sure, the back end of your lineup is stronger than other teams' - however, this makes the later rounds of your draft a little less relevant. I'd rather take a couple of proven, surer guys in the first couple of rounds, get decent RB2, WR2 picks in the 3-5th rounds, then pick my high upside guys in the later rounds with the hopes that one of them blossoms into a reliable RB2, WR2-3 or Flex (or better if I get REALLY lucky).This is similar to saving your money in an auction and getting a bunch of good but not great players. All of that depth doesn't help you - you can't start all of those guys. if you did this, you'd have to be pretty active once the season starts trying to trade to upgrade your starting lineup.

 

On the flip side, the guy who trades you 3.02, 4.11 and 5.02 then ends up with both the 1.02 and 1.04 pick. and he also still has the 2.11 pick (your pick would be 2.09 that you traded, not 2.11). Imagine starting your team with Ray Rice, Aaron Rodgers (or McCoy if the 1.03 goes Rodgers), and Julio Jones (or whatever top 5 WR you decide). Using ADPs from an online source for PPR leagues, here's what your team could look like:

 

QB - Aaron Rodgers (1.04)

RB1 - Ray Rice (1.02)

RB2 - Jonathan Stewart / Kevin Smith (6.11)

WR1 - Julio Jones (2.11)

WR2 - Stevie Johnson (6.09)

WR3 - Torrey Smith (7.02)

TE - Brandon Pettigrew (8.09)

Flex - David Wilson (8.11)

 

Comparing these teams, do you feel Stevie Johnson is a signifant downgrade from Bowe / VJax at WR2? Torrey Smith, yeah I'd say that's a significant drop off. And Brandon Lloyd is a great flex. Pettigrew likely isn't a significant downgrade from Hernandez in PPR.

 

I would argue that Aaron Rodgers is such a hugh upgrade over the riff raff carousel QB that it makes these other downgrades less significant. I want the guy I can pretty much bank on near 300 yards and multiple TD passes every week. Same with Ray Rice (or McCoy if that's your preference). Give me the guy catching a ton of balls but also getting goalline carries.

[Bronco Billy]

Good thoughts guys - keep it coming.

 

BTW - ADP has S Johnson going mid 5th near Bowe and VJax, not late 6th.

 

And I would consider pettigrew as a precipitous drop off from Hernandez

 

 

Edited August 8, 2012 by Bronco Billy

[flemingd]

This is a spinoff from a discussion that detlef and I were having in the Bowe thread.

 

You trade your 1.04, 6.09, and 8.09 for team A's 3.02, 4.11, and 5.02. You then trade your 2.11 and 7.04 for team B's 3.10 and 5.10. Per pick value calculators you have actually lost a little value in both trades, so they are both feasible and reasonable.

 

 

If you are 1.04, you would have the 2.09 and 2.11 would have come from 1.02 owner.

 

Is 2.11 a typo, or did you actually mean to get that in the first trade but settled for 3.02?

 

I don't like the first trade because you're dropping out of a premium spot. No way I'm moving out of anything 1-4 unless I get a clear win in exchange, and getting a few mid-round picks doesn't do that for me. To get off 1.4 assuming I'm working with the owner at 1.2 I would require both 2.11 and 3.02.

[detlef]

So, the first thing that comes to mind is that top guys in an auction "cost" a lot more than they do in a snake draft. Rice is $65-70 and Rodgers is going to go for close to that. McCoy, certainly will. Julio Jones won't be cheap and, next thing you know, you're in the dollar derby with 10-13 more spots to fill.

 

So, in other words being on the other side of Broncos trade offer makes a ton more sense than buying two studs in an auction does.

 

All that said, MT, one of the things that you may be missing when you look at the squad that Bronco walks away with is the fact that, history tells us he (just like everyone) is going to miss on a few of those players. Something that even high dollar or 1st round picks are not immune to (as anyone who drafted Vick, Mendenhall, CJ2K or J Charles early last year). So, if you recognize that and simply try to grab as many guys as you can that you think could be good, you may be increasing your odds enough to make up for the lack of guys who should be good.

Edited August 8, 2012 by detlef

[Bronco Billy]

2.11 traded away should read 2.09

 

Thanks guys. I'll fix it

[whomper]

I always trade my top picks in dynasty but rarely do I ask for picks in return. I use it for a proven player that I like

[whomper]

I always trade my top picks in dynasty but rarely do I ask for picks in return. I use it for a proven player that I like

 

 

Which reminds me, why do I have all these pesky 2013 picks in atap ?? ewwww

[Big Country]

I'm a fan of moving down, primarily when I feel I am in the middle of one of my tiers and I can pretty safely move down and still get a player from the same tier. I'm not as big of a fan of making the large drop as in the example presented, though it does provoke some interesting thought.

 

Me personally, if I had say the #10 pick, would probably be open to a deal that moved be back into the earlier part of the 2nd round, and in turn I got a decent bump later on (say my 6th for a 4th or some such) or a couple of smaller bumps (like my 4th for a 3rd and 8th for a 6th type of thing (just tossing things out there, not looking at any pick value calculator).

 

Reason why I like those moves is I feel that I am taking a minimal hit in the part where I drop, as I'll still be picking a player I rate similarly (and often still get the player I was planning to take if I kept my pick), and at the same time move up enough later on to be picking from a higher tier.

 

It also gives me some ammo to move back up in the draft if I see particular value there that I like.

[flemingd]

Was in a hurry earlier. My way to resolve this is to use ADP (adjusting for personal preference) and mock the trade.

 

1.04 = Calvin Johnson

6.09 = Matt Ryan

8.09 = DHB

 

3.02 = Julio Jones

4.11 = Percy Harvin

5.02 = Tony Romo

 

I must admit I like it more than I thought I would, but it's still not enough to get me off of Calvin Johnson. Now 2.11 instead of 4.11 yields AJ Green instead of Harvin, and AJ Green/Julio I'd pull that trigger for.

 

edit: which you basically did. So to do it on your terms:

 

Darren Sproles (3.02)

Fred Jackson (3.10)

Reggie Bush (4.09)

 

Brandon Marshall (3.04)

Dwayne Bowe (5.02)

Vincent Jackson (5.04)

Brandon Lloyd (5.10)

 

versus

 

Marshawn Lynch (2.09)

Fred Jackson (3.04)

Isaac Redman (5.04)

 

Calvin Johnson (1.04)

Percy Harvin (4.09)

Stevie Johnson (6.09)

Torrey Smith (7.04)

 

The RB's are pretty much a wash, depending on rules/lineups could to either way. But I think the potential of later WR's to exceed ADP expectations + Calvin Johnson's delta outweigh the depth you get. Hell there are a dozen guys that are ADP'ing in the 7th+ that wouldn't surprise me at all if they ended up top 10, and this happens every year. 2011 saw Steve Smith, Cruz, AJ Green, and Nelson all after that range. You might have a lot of love for Hernandez in the 4th but I see a ton of potential in about 7 guys that can be had in the 8th or later.

 

Again, much closer that I first expected when I scanned it, but not compelling enough.

Edited August 8, 2012 by flemingd

[detlef]

At the risk of putting words into BB's mouth, I don't think he was talking about how much sense this strategy makes in general, but rather that he thinks it makes sense this year in particular.

 

I'm inclined to agree but for one thing; the cold, impartial side of me when it comes to these sorts of things is inclined to believe that feeling that the draft is deeper or more top heavy from one year to another might be born of thinking we know more than we do.

 

As a numbers guy, I do like to delve into such things and I've tended to find evidence that shows success rates of players given certain ranges of ADP is more similar from one year to the next than we'd like to believe (which would sort of need to be the case in order for those draft spot trade evaluators to be at all useful). In other words, it may seem like one season is top heavy and another is less so, but the results may not bear that out. Mind you, it's been a few seasons since I've had such a look so I'm not prepared to back that up with data.

[stethant]

If this is a redraft league, this doesn't make any sense. You have the same number of picks after trading as you did before, yes?

 

If so, then you can take all those same players by just keeping your original slots and drafting the guys you have listed. Sure, someone may howl at you for a first round Darren Sproles, but what difference does it make once the draft is over? The only person making you follow the rankings is you.

 

So you'd go Sproles 1st, F. Jackson 2nd, Reggie Bush 3rd. Then Brandon Marshall 4th, Dwayne Bowe 5th. The only issue here is you'd lose out on either V. Jackson or Brandon Lloyd (you probably could snag one of them at the start of the 6th) - but chances are reasonable that one of them would fall, or you'd pick up someone better in the 6th or 7th.

[Papajohn]

If this is a redraft league, this doesn't make any sense. You have the same number of picks after trading as you did before, yes?

 

If so, then you can take all those same players by just keeping your original slots and drafting the guys you have listed. Sure, someone may howl at you for a first round Darren Sproles, but what difference does it make once the draft is over? The only person making you follow the rankings is you.

 

So you'd go Sproles 1st, F. Jackson 2nd, Reggie Bush 3rd. Then Brandon Marshall 4th, Dwayne Bowe 5th. The only issue here is you'd lose out on either V. Jackson or Brandon Lloyd (you probably could snag one of them at the start of the 6th) - but chances are reasonable that one of them would fall, or you'd pick up someone better in the 6th or 7th.

 

 

There is also Aaron Hernandez at 4.11.

[flemingd]

If this is a redraft league, this doesn't make any sense. You have the same number of picks after trading as you did before, yes?

 

If so, then you can take all those same players by just keeping your original slots and drafting the guys you have listed. Sure, someone may howl at you for a first round Darren Sproles, but what difference does it make once the draft is over? The only person making you follow the rankings is you.

 

So you'd go Sproles 1st, F. Jackson 2nd, Reggie Bush 3rd. Then Brandon Marshall 4th, Dwayne Bowe 5th. The only issue here is you'd lose out on either V. Jackson or Brandon Lloyd (you probably could snag one of them at the start of the 6th) - but chances are reasonable that one of them would fall, or you'd pick up someone better in the 6th or 7th.

 

So it's the same, even though it's not the same. You can accomplish the same thing, you just lose out on three guys. Or maybe two. Or maybe two + a TE. You can get them all, but you can't, but you might get one guy with a pick you don't have at the start of the 6th.

 

[MTSuper7]

Good thoughts guys - keep it coming.

 

BTW - ADP has S Johnson going mid 5th near Bowe and VJax, not late 6th.

 

And I would consider pettigrew as a precipitous drop off from Hernandez

 

 

Depends on where you get your ADP info from on S. Johnson then... And I'm curious what sort of projections you have for Pettigrew and Hernandez. No worries about actually responding here though, as I don't want to digress away from the point of this thread.

 

I guess I've been burned in auctions before where I end up with a really deep team of good players and end up having WDIS problems every week. I don't like to draft under the "what if he gets hurt or sucks" mentality either (or if it's that scary, take a guy with a proven quality handcuff and then get the handcuff). I can only make the best decisions at the time I draft. To me, I feel good enough about my ability to sniff out sleepers in the 6th round and beyond that I would rather have the proven studs in Rodgers and Rice/McCoy and hit on a couple of sleepers than have a team full of RB2/3s and WR2/3s. If I'm in a pretty active league and I feel confident I'll be able to move some guys to upgrade, then the trade down strategy gets more appealing. But what good does it do me to have Marshall, Jackson, Bowe, Lloyd, Amendola (and, say, one other later pick that pans out) if I can only start 3 WRs? Why leave points on the bench? Same with the RB situation. I like having a deep team, but not at the cost of difference makers. And in my experience trying to trade, people always want to overcharge you when you try to trade for an elite level player anyway.

[stethant]

So it's the same, even though it's not the same. You can accomplish the same thing, you just lose out on three guys. Or maybe two. Or maybe two + a TE. You can get them all, but you can't, but you might get one guy with a pick you don't have at the start of the 6th.

 

 

 

Easy, tiger. I missed the Hernandez pick so that means you'll miss out on two players. I agree that this is not the same as the original BB scenario. The idea does seem appealing. For me, the drop in QB is more than I'd be willing to stomach, but you could swap out one pick for a QB as detlef suggested. Interesting idea, minus my misinterpretation of it.