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Talk me off the ledge


CrimsonGhost
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So my leagues draft order was just determined. I am fortunate enough to land the top spot. Let me start by saying I am always one of the last people to select a QB in any given year. In any other year I would have not thought twice grabbing the top RB. However after years of watching Rodgers just shred my league I can't help but think this is the safest smartest pick. Our league is very standard scoring all TDs are 6 pts and does not really reward depth (we do not have a flex spot..I argue every year and get shot down). Bellow I am listing the top players from last year. I know the smart pick is probably Foster but I think the safe pick is Rodgers. I live in Wisconsin so there is also the factor I could even trade him for a little higher value then other leagues. Qbs all score more then other positions but typically the top 2 score 100+ pts more then the rest. These pts are hard to make up at other spots because of how inconsistant other positions are. Factor in higher injury risk in other positions and I cant get takign Qb at 1 out of my mind. Talk me off this ledge,

 

 

My league Scoring from last year

6 pt tds 1 pt 10 yds rush/rec 1 pt 25 yd passing NON ppr

 

Top Scorers by position

 

Qb

Brees 547

Rodgers 520

Brady 495

Stafford 465

Newton 419

Eli Manning 386

Romo 352

RB

Rice 320

McCoy 300

Foster 288

MOJO 279

Turner 233

Lynch 233

All Day 196

Bush 195

 

Wr

Megatron 304

Welker 251

Nelson 235

Cruz 233

Fitz 2111

Steve SMith 205

White 197

Vjax 182

Edited by CrimsonGhost
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Like you, I have always been one to wait for a QB. However, this year I have joined you on the ledge. Last year I waited on Stafford. Well, that won't happen this year. I fear that if you wait for your 2nd/3rd round turn, the top 6 QB's could be gone. I just don;t see a Stafford like QB available late, this year. Maybe Matt Ryan, if you trust that. Otherwise, you know that you must take Rodgers and out-draft the rest of your league. (Non PPR), There will be a RB that available to you on the turn that can hang with with top 10 average. (Non PPR), There will be a WR available that can hang with the top 10 average. I say take the jump and get that stud QB.

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OK, how 'bout this. I'm also a guy who typically waits on a QB. However, given the massive drop-off at RB that happens after the top 3, I'm far more prepared to grab Rodgers/Brady/Brees in the first round than I've been prepared to pick up a QB that early for some time.

 

But there's the rub, it's because the drop-off is so big after Foster/Rice/McCoy, which means, this year, more than ever, I wouldn't dream of passing up on any of those three. And I think you'd be a fool to use a top 3 pick on anyone other than them. Stafford, who really did about as well as the big three, could be waiting for you at pick 2.

 

And I'd take Foster/Stafford over Rodgers/Forte(or Richardson)

 

Oh and if the top 6 QBs are truly gone by 16/17, then you're going to be able to load up nicely on either 2 really nice WRs or another very solid RB and a top WR.

Edited by detlef
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I seriously doubt, with your league scoring, that Stafford will be there at the end of round two. You know your league best when it comes to owners and what positions they draft. If 4+ QBs are gone by your 2nd round pick, who is left? If RBs are so ho-hum, then do you think that 6+QBs will be taken by your 2nd round pick?

Edited by Scooby's Hubby
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The way my league has gone the last 8 years has always been Qbs early. Every year 2 qbs in the first rd. Last year was the first year in which 3 were taken in rd 1 (Rdogers, Vick, Brady) Brees being taken in early rd 2. I think this year Cam NEwton and Stafford will both be taken along with the other 4 by round 2. If I wait there is some value to be gained but I am not sure the value is as big as assuring myself a top 2 Qb in Rodgers. Taking a Qb at pick one seems seems to put you behind at every other position. However getting 30+ pts a week guarenteed puts you those weeks Newton and Romo are putting up 11 pts. Will be a long 20 days pondering my decision but I hope we can generate some discussion in regards to draft strategy.

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Pretend it's a 2 round draft, 1st and 5th. Grab any mock/ADP tool you prefer and note who's going where.

 

Rodgers

Redman/Hillis/Greene

 

Better yet, it's QB1 and RB20

 

vs.

 

Rice

Romo/Eli/Rivers

 

RB1 vs. QB7

 

You have shown us that it's 130 points from QB1 to QB7 and 125 points from RB1 to RB7, but not the drop from RB1 to RB20. What is that number?

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This makes no sense. There is a higher chance if 5 Qbs are taken in the first 2 rounds peopel will get scared and not want to be the last one to take a Qb. This means in rounds 3 and 4 the top 10 Qbs will be drafted. In all honesty I will be looking at

 

Rodgers and (Jamal Charels,Ryan Mathews,Reggie Bush) 715 pts

 

vs

 

Foster and Romo or Eli 686 pts This making foster 300pts

 

So right there it looks like i come out ahead drafting Rodgers

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I have no idea why you used the examples you did, but hey you know your league's drafting history better than I do. Sounds like you didn't need advice after all and your mind is made up.

 

 

Exactly, he's decided to draft Rodgers at #1 and doesn't really want to be talked off the ledge.

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There is a higher chance if 5 Qbs are taken in the first 2 rounds peopel will get scared and not want to be the last one to take a Qb. This means in rounds 3 and 4 the top 10 Qbs will be drafted.

 

 

In general I disagree with this. I have yet to participate in a draft where 10 QBs got drafted in the first four rounds, I don't think it has even been close. If that is the case in your league, then I would be happy about getting the no. 10 ranked QB later in the draft and in the meantime load up on RBs and WRs.

 

To answer your first question: I would go with Foster, Rice and McCoy before Rodgers all the time. When they are gone I would be tempted by Rodgers, but not a second before.

Edited by Papajohn
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I'm drafting McCoy at #1. This year you have only have 3 first tier RBs, with the possibility of a hugh drop off to the second tier. I don't think that you can pass up the chance to get one of them.

 

And besides,

 

You're never gonna get me, you're never going to get me . . .

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This is going against the advice i usually give, but given your league's scoring system that deflates the potential points to be scored by RBs and WRs due to the lack of PPR, and the tendency for your leaguemates to draft QB heavy, I think I would suggest you grab Rodgers. If Qbs score at all close to last year, you are looking at a near 200 point drop between Rodgers and the QBs you would be looking at even in round 4 or so.

 

Based on the numbers you posted, the RBs or WRs you are looking at as early as the 2nd round won't even score that many points on the season, much less create enough of a difference in scoring above the RBs and WRs available a few rounds later.

 

To me, this is just a case where the volume of points that the Qbs score in this league compared to the other positions makes them by default the most valuable position. Essentially, as your QB goes, so goes your team.

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This makes no sense. There is a higher chance if 5 Qbs are taken in the first 2 rounds peopel will get scared and not want to be the last one to take a Qb. This means in rounds 3 and 4 the top 10 Qbs will be drafted. In all honesty I will be looking at

 

Rodgers and (Jamal Charels,Ryan Mathews,Reggie Bush) 715 pts

 

vs

 

Foster and Romo or Eli 686 pts This making foster 300pts

 

So right there it looks like i come out ahead drafting Rodgers

 

Foster was injured going into last year, and his numbers reflect that. Those of us who were fortunate enough to endure the early season when he was not playing or playing sparingly were handsomely rewarded by some of the moster games he turned in down the stretch.

 

It also bears mention that 3 of the top 6 QBs in your league last year were likely not drafted until the guy picking first made his 4th/5th picks. And in the case of Newton, likely long after that.

 

Did the guy who had Rodgers win the league last year?

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This makes no sense. There is a higher chance if 5 Qbs are taken in the first 2 rounds peopel will get scared and not want to be the last one to take a Qb. This means in rounds 3 and 4 the top 10 Qbs will be drafted. In all honesty I will be looking at

 

Rodgers and (Jamal Charels,Ryan Mathews,Reggie Bush) 715 pts

 

vs

 

Foster and Romo or Eli 686 pts This making foster 300pts

 

So right there it looks like i come out ahead drafting Rodgers

 

Unless you're expecting Romo to come off the board in the 2nd, then you're comparing apples to oranges. Part of the point of waiting on QB is that you can wait as late as the 6th for a Romo, Ryan, while all the while you gain an edge at all the other postions you pick up. You have to compare all the picks between Foster and Romo, not just compare that combo to the first two picks...

 

Now I suppose if QBs really do fly off the board in your league, then you may have point if the top 10 are all gone by the third or 4th, but regardless, you're still comparing as many as 4 picks, not a 1st/2nd compared to a 1st/4th. Thus, if you make up those 29 points in the 2nd and 3rd, do you really come out behind?

 

But like BC said (and unless you feel confident in your ability to identify top QBs later), it's not likely that you're going to gain much of an edge with RBs and WRs over elite QBs in non-PPR with QB scoring like that.

Edited by delusions of grandeur
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I have the number one pick in an eight team league. While I've flirted with the idea of drafting Rodgers number one overall - because I believe he is the safest pick and he helped me win last year - I think I have to go with Foster or McCoy (still debating). Especially considering it's an eight team PPR league with 4 point passing TD's, I'll have a good shot at getting a stud QB back around.

 

In your situation, the 6 point passing TD and no PPR changes things. However, I think stacking up on RB and WR is always nice and provides trade bait to get that QB later on if need be. It worked for me last year and I traded for Rodgers after focusing on RB/WR first several rounds.

 

If I were you, I would take Rodgers. Only because of 6 point TD's.

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Picking at one means I am not going to get a top Qb if I wait. Then if I don't take one in the second start of the third I am almost guarenteed to be the 9-10th person to select a QB come the 4th or 5th. This is why i gave the examples that I did.

 

Yes I may make up points at other positions waiting but realistcly how many? These rounds are much harder to predict sucssfully. I feel like going with a top 3 QB in the first round I am getting someone who is easy to predict outside of injury. Also Rodgers is above playing the matchup game. I can't tell you how many years I have been the guy with 2 solid QBs not the top tier, and have played the matchup game and picked wrong.

 

In response to did the guy who had Rodgers iwn th eleague last year? No, I did on th ebacks of McCoy, Ghram, Newton, Wes Welker. But the guy with Rodgers while most of his team wasn't great did come in third.

Edited by CrimsonGhost
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Picking at one means I am not going to get a top Qb if I wait. Then if I don't take one in the second start of the third I am almost guarenteed to be the 9-10th person to select a QB come the 4th or 5th. This is why i gave the examples that I did.

 

Yes I may make up points at other positions waiting but realistcly how many? These rounds are much harder to predict sucssfully. I feel like going with a top 3 QB in the first round I am getting someone who is easy to predict outside of injury. Also Rodgers is above playing the matchup game. I can't tell you how many years I have been the guy with 2 solid QBs not the top tier, and have played the matchup game and picked wrong.

 

In response to did the guy who had Rodgers iwn th eleague last year? No, I did on th ebacks of McCoy, Ghram, Newton, Wes Welker. But the guy with Rodgers while most of his team wasn't great did come in third.

 

Just going to say it again. You keep saying that "the top QBs will all be gone by the 4th.

 

When were Stafford, Eli, and Newton taken last year?

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They were taken late but again this is not last year. Stafford is not going round 6 this year and Eli won't be going round 8. As for Newton? Come on Man! Are you saying Newtons name as if I should draft RGIII or Luck in the last round this year and hope they do what Cam did for me last year? Predicting RB totals has been the hardest position to predict in th elast 5 years. There have been more first round bust RBs then Qbs. There was a 134 pt difference between Rodgers and Eli. That is a pretty big differencial. The three guys you mention were all taken lower then they should have been last year but all three out prefromed their ADP. Again this is why taking Rodgers is more of a sure thing. It is harder to predict a QB who is going to outpreform his ADP then it is to draft a bunch of mid rround Rbs and hit on a top 15. The only reaosn I am looking so closely at htis is I have never once in 10 years of FF taken a Qb before round 6. I just htink it is a different era in Fantasy Football and i need to open up to the idea that RB first isn't the only option.

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In a BoTH league with some long-time huddlers and our draft just started (slow draft). We have the same scoring as you ... 4 QBs went in the first 10 picks with Stafford going tenth to a well known huddler (and we have only recorded the first ten picks). In a league with your scoring, no way Stafford makes it back to your 2nd round pick.

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