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QB Sleeper


ManningFor6
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LOL, I was referring to Peyton Manning. Good one though.

 

he knew you were referring Peyton Manning. He was making fun of you since you said QB Sleeper, which is just a stupid comment since Manning is one of the best QB's of all time.

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I've seen Manning drop as far as the 10th round this year. If he is available anywhere after round 6 you have to snag him up no questions asked.

 

 

No you must ask questions, such as:

 

How effective can we truly expect him to be after coming off of a season-ending injury to his neck?

How does the value one cant for Manning in the 6th round compare to the value you can get from, say, Matt Ryan or Jay Cutler and can still wait a few more rounds?

John Fox has always been a strong believer in a strong, dedicated running game. Can one really expect #'s even relatively close to the likes of Brees, Brady, Rodgers since they play in much for Madden-esque, high octane offenses? Even though he isn't being drafted with them, how high really is his ceiling?

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And Manning's ADP is most definitely NOT 6th round right now.

 

ADP according to ESPN is 41.0, trending upward in the last week.

 

Comparatively, Romo has an ADP of 10 picks later, Rivers 20 picks later, Ryan 28 picks later, Roethlisberger 33 picks later, and RGIII 33 picks later.

 

Cutler is also 60 picks later, and Andrew Luck is around 75 picks later than Manning.

 

Conclusion = Manning is overvalued.

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he knew you were referring Peyton Manning. He was making fun of you since you said QB Sleeper, which is just a stupid comment since Manning is one of the best QB's of all time.

 

 

The guy was making a joke saying the guy in the video would be a big-time sleeper since he's not even in the NFL, at least that's how I read it.

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The guy was making a joke saying the guy in the video would be a big-time sleeper since he's not even in the NFL, at least that's how I read it.

 

 

Dude I was poking fun at the use of the term "sleeper" since Manning is the FACE OF THE NFL. I can't watch a car commercial without seeing his forehead. And I don't care if he used to go in the 1st/2nd, I care about what he gives me NOW. NOW he is a old QB playing on a new team coming off a season-ending neck injury that is going in the 4th round of drafts. The team is run by a HC that is known to run the ball heavily and control the clock, which limits his upside of monster #'s.

 

I think Manning is the worst option to go. You either splurge on a first/2nd round QB in the Rodgers-Brees-Brady-Newton-Stafford combo or you wait until the 8th or so and get a nice value.

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Manning is the definition of a sleeper this year, he used to go in the 1st or 2nd rd now he's going in the 6th (although the post above me sends he is trending upward which means people are agreeing with my assessment.

 

 

A little while back LT was a first round pick....does that make him a "sleeper"? Mendy went in the 1st round last year, is he a "sleeper" this year? People on ESPN are idiots, please join a league i'm in and take manning in the fourth round.

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BJ took Rivers and I took Eli in the 6th, Peyton is huge risk/reward but 6th is too early with his negatives(health).

 

 

Agree and smart fantasy football players aren't taking him early. Maybe look in a "local" or random ESPN or yahoo league...

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And Manning's ADP is most definitely NOT 6th round right now.

 

ADP according to ESPN is 41.0, trending upward in the last week.

 

Comparatively, Romo has an ADP of 10 picks later, Rivers 20 picks later, Ryan 28 picks later, Roethlisberger 33 picks later, and RGIII 33 picks later.

 

Cutler is also 60 picks later, and Andrew Luck is around 75 picks later than Manning.

 

Conclusion = Manning is overvalued.

 

 

I haven't been following PManning's ADP since I won't be drafting him, but #41 is outrageous. All it takes is one donkey FFL owner....

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Ok, I'm a Broncos fan and #41 is way too early and that's me saying that.

 

 

Well that is where he is going in ESPN leagues...heck, even at 60 I don't touch him. Upside is limited by reasons that I stated earlier, he can't touch the top-5. While a guy like Rivers/Ryan/Romo, if they put it together which they aren't far from doing, they could easily.

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P Manning is currently at an ADP of 62, sitting in a group immediately behind Romo and immediately ahead of Rivers. Ryan is a full round ahead of them.

 

A little too steep a price IMO given what we've seen so far this preseason, his injury history, his age, that he's with a new team, and that his HC loves running the ball. But I'm certain there will be enough guys thinking they'll "steal" him there that it wouldn't be an issue for me in a draft.

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Manning is not a sleeper. He's a one-time Top-3 player at his position with a lot of question marks and some assumed risk, which makes him hard to rank in the Top-10. If he outperforms his ranking, he isn't going to be exactly coming out of nowhere, but he will reward those that took a chance in him.

 

Ryan Fitzpatrick is a sleeper. He'll unlikely be anyone's starting QB, yet could very well outperform everyone except the top 3-4 QB's drafted.

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Ryan Fitzpatrick is a sleeper. He'll unlikely be anyone's starting QB, yet could very well outperform everyone except the top 3-4 QB's drafted.

 

 

I'm on Fitzpatrick as well. He will be my target QB2 to pair with any of Rivers, Ryan, Romo or whoever I can get value on. Should be able to snag Fitz with one of the last picks before D and K. He's gone undrafted (except when I take him) in a bunch of my 10 team mocks. I do believe he was hurt last year and am expecting this season to be much closer to where he was early last year (pre-contract). I wish there was another Stafford in this years draft... I was big on Stafford last year (I know I was not alone), but Stafford and Graham in rds 8 and 9 were probably the 2 value picks that lead to my title last year.

 

If there's anyone outside the top 4 (or 5 if you want to include Cam) that could put up top 3-4 numbers it would be a Vick that stays healthy all season, or Ryan... but neither will last long enough to be the value Stafford was last year. Beyond the top 10-12 QB's, I think Fitz is the guy that could way outperform his ADP. Like you said, I think the potential is there to be in the top 10 year end, maybe as high as 4,5,6?

Edited by MnLefty
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Well, I went out on the limb with Manning. I took him in the 6th round in a draft recently and I am glad to have him. I realize there is risk related to his injury, but if he can stay on the field all season, I think he's a lock for top 5 QB performance. I don't see him vastly outperforming his draft spot, but I do see him outperforming it. I really debated taking him, but in the mock drafts that I did, I was consistently happier with my team with Manning in the 6th round than with Ryan or Rivers in the 7th or 8th. There were many mocks where Manning, Rivers, Romo, and Ryan would all get snapped up after my 6th round pick and before my 7th round, leaving me with Cutler in the 10th as my starter. I elected to not take that chance and I drafted the guy I wanted at the latest possible time. Only time will tell if this was the right move, but for now, I'm glad I did it.

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I think Cutler can crack the top 12, maybe top ten, at least hang with Eli. With 4 games versus GB and DET, the Bears will be throwing alot. Those are the games you are counting on Cutler hang 3+ TDs and 300+ yds per game. Also, throw in that their defense is slightly declining and you have Cutler with other games where the Bears may have to put up 28 to win.

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