timFFBA Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Chris Johnson has been a hot topic of debate this preseason. With an improved offensive line, a full training camp, and a new attitude towards success, I expect flashes of the old Chris Johnson to reemerge this season. I’m predicting 1,500+ total yards from scrimmage and 13+ touchdowns. What do you think? Will Chris Johnson finish the season as a top 5 RB? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 CJ was the #1 fantasy RB in 2009, the #10 RB in 2010, and the #18 RB last year. I know this isn't the Holy Grail of predicting future performance; but staying away from RBs who trend downward over 3 consecutive seasons has paid dividends for me in the past. While CJ is still fairly young, he's been utilized heavily and may have already lost a half of step from his first 2 years (and is probably the type of RB who can least afford that). There is still question marks all over that O-line and offense in general. While I wouldn't be amazed to see CJ become a top 5 RB, there are at least 2 other RBs I'd rather have after the big 3 are gone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stethant Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I know this isn't the Holy Grail of predicting future performance; but staying away from RBs who trend downward over 3 consecutive seasons has paid dividends for me in the past. Wisdom. I think the CJ owner from last year in my main league is still curled up in the fetal position. Show me a good season this year and I'm happy to re-buy back in to CJ2K for 2013. Until then, I'll be rolling the dice elsewhere. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faceplant Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 While I wouldn't be amazed to see CJ become a top 5 RB, there are at least 2 other RBs I'd rather have after the big 3 are gone. And those two other RBs are? I'm picking 10th in an upcoming draft and struggling heavily on ranking RBs after the big 3. I change my mind everyday based on schedule, news, and gut feeling. Please rationalize before I talk myself into taking a kicker in the first round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 And those two other RBs are? I'm picking 10th in an upcoming draft and struggling heavily on ranking RBs after the big 3. I change my mind everyday based on schedule, news, and gut feeling. Please rationalize before I talk myself into taking a kicker in the first round. He's more than likely going to say/choose Forte and DMC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timFFBA Posted August 21, 2012 Author Share Posted August 21, 2012 He's more than likely going to say/choose Forte and DMC. Both more injury prone than Chris Johnson CJ was the #1 fantasy RB in 2009, the #10 RB in 2010, and the #18 RB last year. Johnson had an unreal, record setting year in 2009. Of course his stats dropped in 2010. 2011 was an anomaly with the holdout. He is back in shape this year and hasn't lost a step. He may not put up 2009 numbers, but he will for sure top the likes of Forte, SJax, Jamaal Charles, etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Both more injury prone than Chris Johnson I hear ya and I myself drafted CJ in front of both Forte and DMC in a recent draft. I got him 7 over all after the Top 3 RBs, Rodgers, Calvin and Brady went. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 (edited) Johnson had an unreal, record setting year in 2009. Of course his stats dropped in 2010. 2011 was an anomaly with the holdout. He is back in shape this year and hasn't lost a step. He may not put up 2009 numbers, but he will for sure top the likes of Forte, SJax, Jamaal Charles, etc. It's still a trend over 3 seasons, which isn't a small sample size in the career of an NFL RB. People used the exact same rationale your stating for drafting LaDanian Tomlinson high (who had an unreal record setting 2006 year) going into the 2009 season (granted LT was a bit older). While CJ may have a better updside, than, say Forte, I defnitely don't share your certainty of CJs performance going into this year. Edited August 21, 2012 by bushwacked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SecondString Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 And those two other RBs are? I'm picking 10th in an upcoming draft and struggling heavily on ranking RBs after the big 3. I change my mind everyday based on schedule, news, and gut feeling. Please rationalize before I talk myself into taking a kicker in the first round. Go with David Akers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTSuper7 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I'd guess he cracks the top 10 but not top 5. New offensive scheme and the potential emergence of Britt, Wright and/or Cook will make CJ a bit less of a focal point. Unless he hits a lot of home runs again, which is how he dominated in 2009, I don't see him cracking the top 5. TDs are hard to predict though... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalaby Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 TD It's still a trend over 3 seasons, which isn't a small sample size in the career of an NFL RB. People used the exact same rationale your stating for drafting LaDanian Tomlinson high (who had an unreal record setting 2006 year) going into the 2009 season (granted LT was a bit older). While CJ may have a better updside, than, say Forte, I defnitely don't share your certainty of CJs performance going into this year. Well, it's actually a 2 season (down)trend. With that said, 2009 was the anomaly in my opinion. I think he bounces back in the total TD area to low double digits and the 1500-1700 area for total yards rushing and receiving. In other words, TDs look like 2008 and 2010 totals and yardage is in around the same range as it's been for every season other than 2009. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Papajohn Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Both more injury prone than Chris Johnson [/font][/color] Johnson had an unreal, record setting year in 2009. Of course his stats dropped in 2010. 2011 was an anomaly with the holdout. He is back in shape this year and hasn't lost a step. He may not put up 2009 numbers, but he will for sure top the likes of Forte, SJax, Jamaal Charles, etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I'm prepared to take him off the board as the 4th or 5th RB and think he has a reasonable chance of finishing there. I was not blown away by the interview I caught with him the other day in terms of getting any sense that he has a chip on his shoulder. However, he still remains one of very few RBs who seems to be pretty much a solo act and that goes a long way. I'm taking him off the board as the 4th or 5th back because I think he's a virtual lock to be top 10, not because I'm convinced he's going to go off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SecondString Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 So far, thirty-one CJ2K owners have responded to this poll. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flemingd Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 So far, thirty-one CJ2K owners have responded to this poll. yes because no one ever votes on a guy unless they have him. You are a genius and a guru. Teach me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TurboCowboy Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I have three players so far on my DO NOT DRAFT list no matter what. Chris Johnson is one of them. He will cost way too much for what the risk is worth. I'd rather roll the dice on Demarco Murray. He's angry, tough, and fast. My season ending prediction for CJ . . . 11th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 (edited) With that said, 2009 was the anomaly in my opinion. While I'd agree, proclaiming the 2009 or 2011 season an 'anomaly' is pure speculation becuase no-one knows what CJs typical production will be over the next 3-4 seasons (and he hasn't played all that long). I think an argument could be made last year was the floor, but drafting him with confidence with a top 6 pick seemingly ignores last season ever happened. While all RBs outside the top 3 have notable cons, CJs is amongst the most interesting to evaluate. Edited August 22, 2012 by bushwacked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shorttynaz Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I have three players so far on my DO NOT DRAFT list no matter what. Chris Johnson is one of them. He will cost way too much for what the risk is worth. I'd rather roll the dice on Demarco Murray. He's angry, tough, and fast. My season ending prediction for CJ . . . 11th. This coming from a Cowboys fan. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shorttynaz Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I'm drafting 8th in a 10 team PPR league. Foster, Rodgers, Rice, McCoy, Brees, Megatron, Brady are the first 7 projected picks. Now it's my turn. DMC looks great in this spot, but CJ2K has had a full preseason - he looks pretty damn good - the offensive line doesn't look as offensive as it did last season, and he plays the Colts defense and the Jags defense twice this season. Dude really isn't splitting carries and I like his legs to hold up a little better than DMC's. I'm not at all feeling Forte this season. I think that whole Bears offense is FAR too overrated and most rankings I see have most of these guys (including Forte) ranked WAY higher than I would ever consider. I think CJ2K is the safest pick after the big 3 are gone.. Just my opinion, but I think he'll finish as one of the top 5 fantasy RB's this season so long as he plays a full season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loaf Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I have three players so far on my DO NOT DRAFT list no matter what. Chris Johnson is one of them. He will cost way too much for what the risk is worth. I'd rather roll the dice on Demarco Murray. He's angry, tough, and fast. My season ending prediction for CJ . . . 11th. then you might want to update your signature. I took him with the 8th overall in a 10 teamer. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shorttynaz Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 then you might want to update your signature. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White lightning Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I found this from an ESPN insider "overrated, underrated" article. While I'm still not sure what DYAR and DVOA mean, I thought the information was interesting. "After a horrid start that saw him average 46 yards per game and 3.0 yards per carry in the first half of the season, Johnson rebounded with 85 yards per game and 4.8 yards per rush in the season's second portion. Despite his strong finish, Johnson finished 49th among running backs in both DYAR (Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement, Football Outsiders' total value stat) and DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average, which measures value on a per-play basis). And it's not just one bad season -- he was outside the top 30 in both categories in 2010 as well. At his best, Johnson is perhaps the league's best big-play runner, but he's not reliable, with Success Rates in the low 40 percent range every season." 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SecondString Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 yes because no one ever votes on a guy unless they have him. You are a genius and a guru. Teach me. Some people simply cannot be taught 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timFFBA Posted August 23, 2012 Author Share Posted August 23, 2012 Actually it is based on the injury history of all three players. McFadden has missed 19 games in 3 seasons to injury, Forte has been limited by injury as well. Johnson on the other hand has not and has been a workhorse back. Thanks for your post though it was a great addition to the thread. Oh wait... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 McFadden has missed 19 games in 3 seasons to injury, While that is true, not many owners are complaining when McFadden is healthy. McFadden missed two games in 2010 and he was still a top 5 overall RB by seasons end. Evaluation of numbers over the 2010-11 seasons leads me to believe that McFadden may out-produce a full seasons worth of CJ in as little as 10 games. Both CJ and McFadden carry risk, while CJ has multiple questions (desire, did he lose a half-step? attitude, is his team and O-line any good?), the only notable one, allbeit it a big one, for McFadden is health. Given the plethora of sleeper/potentially-productive/serviceable type RBs ADP'ing in rounds 6 through 14, I'm personally going for the home run swing in McFadden given the choice between the two. Especially in competitve leagues. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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