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Last year's monster QB seasons... fluke or the new normal?


MnLefty
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I sort of agree with both sides of the argument. I do think a lot of it had to do with offensive schemes like New Orleans & New England's favoring a heavy dose of the TE position. I believe that this year defenses will be a little better prepared for it so production should drop some. That wouldn't really indicate that it was a fluke, but it doesn't mean that the trend will continue as well either.

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A simple explanation for why the defenses might have had to catch up more after the lockout is that offenses know what play they're about to run, while defenses have to predict and guess. Offenses can dumb it down for a new QB and have some success, while a defense cannot dumb down what they do and expect to cover their bases and be efficient.

 

Just my opinion, but this seems to be exactly what happened last year with Newton and Dalton coming out strong and fading off significantly towards the end of the season, as the defense caught up with what they were doing.

 

With the league becoming more pass-oriented with a ton of promising QBs and offenses, I see as much of a progression to a new mean as a regression to the mean... If that holds true, then it might be back to the past where QB scoring differential was negligible, making waiting on a QB still a viable strategy in non-QB-heavy leagues.

Edited by delusions of grandeur
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Okay, allow me to emphasize my point. Take the top 5 QBs' stats and compare them to the next 20 QBs for both 2011 and 2010. The top 5 QBs last year all threw for well over 300 ypg. The next most prolific QB - the most ypg in the next 20 QBs - is Rivers, and he threw for 20 ypg less than the least prolific of the top 5 (E Manning).

 

The following are the increases (decreases) in averages for 2011 over 2010 for each group:

 

Stat / top 5 / next 20

 

Att / 1.0% / 1.6%

Comp / 1.7% / 0.8%

Att/gm / 2.2% / 1.0%

Yds / 13.0% / 2.7%

Ypa / 12.0% / 1.1%

Yds/gm / 14.4% / 2.5%

TD / 32.5% / -8.5%

INT / -28.1% / 13.6%

 

The inceases in passing stats is nominal, except that the uberstuds increased their productivity by huge amounts in 2011 - much better ypa, ypg, TDs, and INT. That's despite very small increases in attempts and completions.

 

The next 20 saw either productivity in line with the nominal increases in att/comp or decreased productivity (TDs and INTs).

 

So the uberstuds took advantage of what no other QBs in the league did. What was the difference? No extended OTAs, TC, or PS time.

 

That makes me think those 5 uberstuds regress back towards their means modified for the slight increase in passing that we see from 2010 to 2011 as Ds have more opportunity to prepare for them.

 

That's not unexpected that the exceptional talents would shine even more with all players having less prep. They're simply that much better.

 

 

Edited by Bronco Billy
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Thought I'd throw an update to this since I started the thread, not that anybody really cares either, but...

 

I ended up drafting Tom Brady with 1.7 in my 10 team local. Even with all of the digging I did on the potential or lack thereof to repeat last years monster numbers it just ended up coming down to a safety factor for me. Foster, Rice, McCoy, Rodgers, Calvin, and Brees were off the board. In my league where top QB's routinely outscore top RB's by 10pts, often by 20 I just had to take the safer pick. Barring catastrophic injury, Brady is a virtual lock to be a top 4 QB, no matter where the points end up compared to last year. I couldn't say the same about any of the RB's or receivers available at that point.

 

For me, leagues are won by finding the best value and big hits through the mid/late rounds, supported by solid early picks. Rarely does a 1st rd home run carry a team... but a big miss in the 1st can handicap a team to the point where it would take an almost perfect draft to recover. IMO taking a Chris Johnson or Darren McFadden @ 7 had much more opportunity to kill my season vs. carry it, so I went safe and took my bigger cuts later.

Edited by MnLefty
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