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Wise to let player you want drop if you think you can get him later?


Sprtfan
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Do you take the risk on missing out on a player you covet if you think he will last a few rounds longer or do you take him when he is on the top of your draft sheet even if his Avg draft position is a few rounds away?

 

That's sort of the million dollar question, isn't it?

 

First and formost, you need to make sure you're looking at current ADP. Yahoo is horrible at updating thiers so a guy like Julio Jones still has an ADP of something in the high 20s-low 30s. Good luck with that.

 

But, if you truly do feel like you've got someone rated much higher than most, then I do feel you owe it to yourself to pick up a few of those players that you and everyone else agree should go early and then take your guy closer to, but still earlier than, what an honest estimation of what the market says. Otherwise, you're leaving value on the board.

Edited by detlef
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I remember thinking I could get Rice in the early 4th his rookie year. He went in the 3rd. I remember thinking I could get Foster in the early 5th after he finished the season strong. He went in the early 4th. I will never make that mistake again. If you really like a guy draft him 1-2 rounds early

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ADP is worthless in this case. You don't care about average, you care about extreme. You need to know what the EARLIEST someone will take him is. To me it's simple, I'm taking the guy I want and to hell with ADP. I call it my donkey rule. There are only 4 possibilities, and two of them make the decision irrelevant anyway:

 

1. You take your guy, and he's great

2. You don't take your guy and he busts

 

In both cases you're happy. The other two form the basis for the donkey rule:

 

3. You take your guy early and he busts

4. You try to get cute, you lose him to someone else, and he goes off for someone else.

 

Which donkey do you want to be?

 

Me, I would much rather be the guy that went with his gut and didn't get it right than have a score like rookie AP or breakout Ray Rice or risky 2nd year CJ2K slip through my hands. I can always learn from the mistake, do more research, figure out why it didn't work. What I can't do is justify knowing damn well the guy was gonna hit and not taking him. It reminds me of when I was a kid and my parents would confront me about some idiotic thing I did and all I can do is stand there like a moran and say "I don't know".

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I have normally taken the guy I want with out waiting. This year though with some guys like Sproles and Reggie Bush lasting much later in most ADP that I have seen it makes it hard to pull the trigger when you see them go a few rounds later every where else. I have been playing around with the ADP tool on the huddle and it can be filtered to only include drafts after certain dates. I'll take a look at some of the extremes and use that as more of a guide than the ADP. I normally ignore ADP and just go off who I want and has worked well in the past. Probably should stick with what has been working but also nice to get an edge whenever you can.

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It depends on the position, and if you keep track of what ALL the other teams are doing - you can greatly use that to your advantage.

 

For instance, say you're picking 8 out of 10 teams in a redraft. It's the 5th round and you need a QB and somehow Matt Ryan is still there slapping you in the face. If you're keeping track of the other managers, and manager 9 and manager 10 already have a QB, then steal the next best player away from both managers and get Ryan on the way back.

 

Personally I don't put much of any stock into ADP's. There's too many variables that could change and bump a player up or down that list. What if QB's touchdowns are only 4 points as opposed to 6? What if it's a PPR league? Those two things alone can drastically change the way I draft.

 

The way I see it, if the player you're coveting is about as equal or hell, even slightly less equal to what your "draft sheet" says you should do - get the player you want.

Edited by Shorttynaz
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This is FF at it's best isn't it. I mean we're all gambling and trying to draft players later than they're expected to go which makes each of us pumped when it happens. However, probably way more often than not we have see players we want get drafted just before us, whether it be 1, 2, or 3 picks in front of us.

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For instance, say you're picking 8 out of 10 teams in a redraft. It's the 5th round and you need a QB and somehow Matt Ryan is still there slapping you in the face. If you're keeping track of the other managers, and manager 9 and manager 10 already have a QB, then steal the next best player away from both managers and get Ryan on the way back.

Ask Zestmon how that worked out for him.

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Its just like buying low and selling high.

 

 

yeah and if you're drafting a guy several rounds before his ADP, chances are you're doing the opposite and overpaying. I pretty much subscribe to the idea that you try to pick guys right before someone else is about to pick them. of course you don't know when that is, but that is the goal. if there's a guy you like and you miss out on him, that is the chance you take. if you know what you're doing, you hopefully got a very good player in his stead. it's like the stock market, everyone thinks they can outsmart the market, and those times we reach and it works out we're emboldened even more. in the long run those people usually end up broke.

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yeah and if you're drafting a guy several rounds before his ADP, chances are you're doing the opposite and overpaying. I pretty much subscribe to the idea that you try to pick guys right before someone else is about to pick them. of course you don't know when that is, but that is the goal. if there's a guy you like and you miss out on him, that is the chance you take. if you know what you're doing, you hopefully got a very good player in his stead. it's like the stock market, everyone thinks they can outsmart the market, and those times we reach and it works out we're emboldened even more. in the long run those people usually end up broke.

 

This.

 

None of us are as smart as we think. And grabbing guys way before you should have to falls into this trap. It also puts a lot of pressure on your hunches to be right, because you're forfeiting value. You're missing out on guys that you and everyone else agree should be top performers.

 

You may think that Doug Martin is a lock to finish top 10RB. But if you take him as the 8th RB off the board, you're wasting a pick. This is because the guy you could have taken there is likely going to be better than the guy you'll be able to take with the pick a few rounds later that you should have used on Martin.

 

Do you want Doug Martin and Julio Jones or Doug Martin and Vincent Jackson?

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Another note on this, I find it very rare that a player is at the top of my draft sheet (as in the "best player available" when it's my pick) but expected to go multiple rounds beyond my pick. My draft sheet is usually a bit different than my league mates', but not that dramatically different.

 

It's usually only one round that a guy might fall and the only time that I gamble on missing my guy is when I'm near the turn and can do what Shorty described. For example, I was higher than guys in my league on DMC, Manning, and Hillis. Drafting 8th out of 10 I got them in the 2nd, 6th, and 8th rounds, respectively. I waited until I came around the turn because I was fairly confident that the two guys after me wouldn't take them. With each of them though, I can guarantee that they wouldn't have made it through the next 14 picks back to me.

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Yeah, I don't think any of us who are talking about waiting are taking it to the extreme where you don't take a guy a few picks before "you should", rather a few rounds.

 

And I should also add that, once you're out of the 6th or 7th rounds, all bets are off, because everyone's draft board goes sideways with respect to one another and, at that point, you may as well just start grabbing guys you like, regardless of where they're "supposed to go". I mean, within reason.

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Seems to me the topic sentence is rhetorical.

 

Why would you pick a player in any given round if you think you can get him later? To do otherwise only decreases the optimization of your team.

 

C'mon, it's not such a silly question, and I think several here have answered it. It appears that we're in agreement that we'd rather not reach for guys and, thus, maximize value.

 

But it is clear that others like to fill their team with "their guys" and are, thus, prepared to pick them where they're ranked on their sheet rather than potentially maximize the value of that pick at the risk of possibly having someone who feels the same way they do about the player, snap him up right before them.

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Do you want Doug Martin and Julio Jones or Doug Martin and Vincent Jackson?

 

That's the eternal question, but you left out the other critical part of it. Would you rather have Julio Jones and Shonn Greene? Because that's the risk of taking the guy you "should" take and missing the guy you want. This is what mocks are for, and it's what cheatsheets are for. You need to decide "if I reach on Martin here, what's left in the X round that I can recover from the loss of Julio?" and decide if you can live with that. Of course there is no right answer, it's all about personal comfort, and it's only with the 20/20 of hindsight that you can even begin to grade it out.

 

Maybe it's bravado, but I'm going "Martin" there every time. I'll solve the "Julio" problem when I get there, and minimize that loss then. Maybe I'll get the last of a tier in Harvin, maybe I'll grab my next gut feeling by "reaching" for Antonio Brown, whatever. Every year there are a ton of late/undrafted guys that are ADP busters, and those are how you win trophies. Drafting one of them to solve the "Julio" problem is how you payback your "Martin" deficit. But I'm not losing "Martin", having someone else draft him, and win a trophy because I tried to get cute.

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That's the eternal question, but you left out the other critical part of it. Would you rather have Julio Jones and Shonn Greene? Because that's the risk of taking the guy you "should" take and missing the guy you want. This is what mocks are for, and it's what cheatsheets are for. You need to decide "if I reach on Martin here, what's left in the X round that I can recover from the loss of Julio?" and decide if you can live with that. Of course there is no right answer, it's all about personal comfort, and it's only with the 20/20 of hindsight that you can even begin to grade it out.

 

Maybe it's bravado, but I'm going "Martin" there every time. I'll solve the "Julio" problem when I get there, and minimize that loss then. Maybe I'll get the last of a tier in Harvin, maybe I'll grab my next gut feeling by "reaching" for Antonio Brown, whatever. Every year there are a ton of late/undrafted guys that are ADP busters, and those are how you win trophies. Drafting one of them to solve the "Julio" problem is how you payback your "Martin" deficit. But I'm not losing "Martin", having someone else draft him, and win a trophy because I tried to get cute.

 

Well, IMO it's not Martin vs Greene, it's Martin vs Bradshaw, Gore, Fred Jackson, or Reggie Bush (all who have an MFL ADP within 10 either side of Martin), and I guess I'm cool with that. Green, btw, has an ADP about 35 picks behind where Martin is going. The fact that it's fun to be the guy who picked the rookie break-out, I suppose, pushes Martin just ahead of that batch in my book, but certainly not enough to be that bummed that I'm "stuck" with any of those others.

 

I think it comes down to this for me. I've had enough drafts where I had guys who I was all fired up about and hoped would make it to me, get snapped up right in front of me and had the guy I "settled" for totally out-perform my pet pick often enough that I'm willing to throw myself at the mercy of the market and just try to beat that.

 

Like gamblers, we're all too quick to remember our wins and forget our losses. So I try to be a bit more zen about it, for lack of a better word, and just try to be disciplined and grab as many guys that should end up being good as I can.

 

Sure, when it gets outside the 6th round or so, I start running around and grabbing "my guys" because, at that point, you're at a stage where, statistically speaking, we're all going to be taking a lot of marginal starters or worse.

Edited by detlef
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Well, IMO it's not Martin vs Greene, it's Martin vs Bradshaw, Gore, Fred Jackson, or Reggie Bush (all who have an MFL ADP within 10 either side of Martin), and I guess I'm cool with that. The fact that it's fun to be the guy who picked the rookie break-out, I suppose, pushes Martin just ahead of those two in my book, but certainly not enough to be that bummed that I'm "stuck" with any of those others.

 

I picked Greene because he was next to VJax on an ADP page I use. If you're using that range, then you need to use WR's like Harvin, Nicks, and Steve Smith. Like you, that's just super by me to end up that. FTR, I am not a Martin fan, and not a fan of rookie RB's in general, but these are good to use for examples. Bradshaw is actually exactly the kind of guy I would make a move like this for.

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I picked Greene because he was next to VJax on an ADP page I use. If you're using that range, then you need to use WR's like Harvin, Nicks, and Steve Smith. Like you, that's just super by me to end up that. FTR, I am not a Martin fan, and not a fan of rookie RB's in general, but these are good to use for examples. Bradshaw is actually exactly the kind of guy I would make a move like this for.

 

Not to get off track here, but at least using MFL, V Jax is closer to Martin (54 vs 43) than he is to Greene (67). Also every WR you listed has an ADP ahead of Martin, even if only just barely. The 2 of the 4 RBs I showed were ahead of him and 2 were behind. Which is a far more fair comparison.

 

That may seem like nitpicking, but it's rather paramount to my argument. Because when you're looking at "who should be there" you need to give yourself realistic options.

 

Basically, what you're saying is, provided Nicks, Smith, or Harvin fall a few spots further than "they should", then you will have gotten away with taking Martin a full round or two early.

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That may seem like nitpicking, but it's rather paramount to my argument. Because when you're looking at "who should be there" you need to give yourself realistic options.

Nah it's not nitpicking, you're right, it's paramount.

 

I'm using FFcalc so it's a mock ADP not a real ADP. Vjax was right with Greene (67 and 64) way behind Martin (36) while Nicks (38), Smith (41) and Harvin (43) were all after him. I ran a generic MFL 12 man and Martin (47) is 2+ rounds later than Julio (20) and that's a much bigger difference.

 

This just illustrates what both of us are saying though - the more "realistic" your information, the better you can manage this. We have already both identified different breaking points where the decision starts to get murky. Curious, what MFL settings did you use?

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Nah it's not nitpicking, you're right, it's paramount.

 

I'm using FFcalc so it's a mock ADP not a real ADP. Vjax was right with Greene (67 and 64) way behind Martin (36) while Nicks (38), Smith (41) and Harvin (43) were all after him. I ran a generic MFL 12 man and Martin (47) is 2+ rounds later than Julio (20) and that's a much bigger difference.

 

This just illustrates what both of us are saying though - the more "realistic" your information, the better you can manage this. We have already both identified different breaking points where the decision starts to get murky. Curious, what MFL settings did you use?

 

Changed nothing but elimintated IDP.
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