Wise to let player you want drop if you think you can get him later?

[flemingd]

Changed nothing but elimintated IDP.

 

So it's:

 

Martin (reach) and Maclin or Antonio Brown

vs.

Julio and Gore/Turner/Bush

 

I dunno man, I'm still going with my gut. Martin isn't the name for me, but if I were convinced Myguy was going to go off I'd take him. It would feel like I'm getting Lynch at that spot and Brown later and the delta from Julio to Brown will be smaller than Lynch to any of those donkey RB's. Given the ADP delta I might be more inclined to wait another round depending on the swing but it's just not worth being right and watching the guy destroy it while on someone else's roster. A couple of years ago I passed on Foster, planning on getting him on the swing, he got poached, and the rest is history. I wasn't mad because I made a bad choice with the pick, I was mad because I passed a guy I was fully sure of going off, thought I could get a round later, and got burned because I tried to get cute and "maximize value". I violated my donkey rule and paid through the nose.

[Bronco Billy]

 

But it is clear that others like to fill their team with "their guys" and are, thus, prepared to pick them where they're ranked on their sheet rather than potentially maximize the value of that pick at the risk of possibly having someone who feels the same way they do about the player, snap him up right before them.

 

 

Ah, the Josh McDaniels draft philosophy. I'd love to play in a league with a few of those guys.

 

FF info is pretty widespread now. The advantage that the really knowledgable/savvy guy has is nowhere near what it used to be.

 

I'd say if you value a guy a few rounds before his ADP - the condition set up in the OP - that you need to do a reality check on your expectations. Once you've done a little self-reevaluation and you're still convinced your guy's value is that high, then you pick him up a round earlier than his ADP unless your league traditionally has some quirks that would preclude that, in which case you might jump up one more round.

 

But jumping up a few rounds and picking your guy? You're missing multiple rounds of value with other players. That's just not good management no matter how highly you think of that one player.

[White lightning]

BB, I hear you. But I think it matters where your "jumping" rounds. If your taking a guy in the 2nd when his ADP is in the 4th, I think that may be to much. But if your taking a guy in the 7th when his ADP is in the 9th, then I'm all for it

[detlef]

Ah, the Josh McDaniels draft philosophy. I'd love to play in a league with a few of those guys.

 

FF info is pretty widespread now. The advantage that the really knowledgable/savvy guy has is nowhere near what it used to be.

 

I'd say if you value a guy a few rounds before his ADP - the condition set up in the OP - that you need to do a reality check on your expectations. Once you've done a little self-reevaluation and you're still convinced your guy's value is that high, then you pick him up a round earlier than his ADP unless your league traditionally has some quirks that would preclude that, in which case you might jump up one more round.

 

But jumping up a few rounds and picking your guy? You're missing multiple rounds of value with other players. That's just not good management no matter how highly you think of that one player.

 

Dude, you're preaching to the choir and McDaniels is a perfect example. I was just answering your "why would anyone even ask this?" by explaining that there appear to actually be two answers. The one you and I feel is correct, and the other side.

 

But I completely agree, and if anyone is going to bother ever grading a draft right after it happens, be it here or in the NFL, value absolutely has to be one of the major components. And pre-jacking your pet picks means, while you may be a good evaluator of talent (assuming that you get it right far more often than you don't), but you're not a savvy drafter.

 

Because the draft is a battle unto itself. And "winning that battle" means coming out with more good players than anyone else. And part of that absolutely means not only getting the guys you have rated higher than others (and are right in that evaluation) but also getting plenty of the guys that everyone likes (and, again, is right about).

[detlef]

BB, I hear you. But I think it matters where your "jumping" rounds. If your taking a guy in the 2nd when his ADP is in the 4th, I think that may be to much. But if your taking a guy in the 7th when his ADP is in the 9th, then I'm all for it

 

Again, that's another case entirely. After round 6 or 7, all bets are off.

[Bronco Billy]

Dude, you're preaching to the choir and McDaniels is a perfect example. I was just answering your "why would anyone even ask this?" by explaining that there appear to actually be two answers. The one you and I feel is correct, and the other side.

 

But I completely agree, and if anyone is going to bother ever grading a draft right after it happens, be it here or in the NFL, value absolutely has to be one of the major components. And pre-jacking your pet picks means, while you may be a good evaluator of talent (assuming that you get it right far more often than you don't), but you're not a savvy drafter.

 

Because the draft is a battle unto itself. And "winning that battle" means coming out with more good players than anyone else. And part of that absolutely means not only getting the guys you have rated higher than others (and are right in that evaluation) but also getting plenty of the guys that everyone likes (and, again, is right about).

 

 

Wurd

[Clubfoothead]

What is so great about ADP?

 

I don't want to take a player too early but does ADP really tell me if I am drafting the player too early?

[Bronco Billy]

What is so great about ADP?

 

I don't want to take a player too early but does ADP really tell me if I am drafting the player too early?

 

 

It gives you information about how the general FF community regards a player's value in comparison with other players - both at that position and across the positions. It can give you insight into the general feeling about a player among many FFers as well as where they are tending to go in drafts.

 

ADP can be particularly effective if you track it over time and use it to see which players are gaining and losing favor among the large group of FFers.

 

It's not the Bible. It's insight and a good self-checking tool.

 

 

Edited August 23, 2012 by Bronco Billy

[flemingd]

I'd say if you value a guy a few rounds before his ADP - the condition set up in the OP - that you need to do a reality check on your expectations. Once you've done a little self-reevaluation and you're still convinced your guy's value is that high, then you pick him up a round earlier than his ADP unless your league traditionally has some quirks that would preclude that, in which case you might jump up one more round.

 

But jumping up a few rounds and picking your guy? You're missing multiple rounds of value with other players. That's just not good management no matter how highly you think of that one player.

 

But it's predicated on being right. If you're getting your picks right you're not losing anything. If you aren't it doesn't matter how perfectly you "played the game". I trust myself to be right a whole lot more than I do for ADP to hold true.

[delusions of grandeur]

There are many factors at play... First, I know I can wait on certain guys in a yahoo league with many owners drafting from the site's rankings, but in BoTH and savvier leagues, you'd better snatch up a guy if you want him and aren't completely sure he'll make it to your next pick.

 

That last part of the statement, "unsure if he'll make it to your next turn", is obviously the big factor, along with whether you think the player actually has as much "value" as the other players available there. Value is a subjective thing, so I could care less if I'm "leaving value on the board" if I don't value or trust those players as much as the consensus of the FF community. I've gotten burned plenty of times just taking the guy that's the consensus "best value" for his ADP, rather than the guy I felt better about but wasn't said to be a great "value pick".

 

So forget about leaving value on the board, unless all else is relatively equal in your view of the players on the board.

 

You also have to take into account opportunity costs. Just like taking a QB early can have you playing catchup at other positions, you have to decide if reaching too much on the guy you want is going to hurt the overall quality of your team or not.

 

Thus, rather than focusing on whether one pick is a reach or not, I'll continue to leave my focus on deciding what this draft pick might mean for the overall quality of my team. If I don't like what it means for my team, I might go for the value or position of need/scarcity, but if it doesn't appear to hurt my team's overall quality, then I'll "reach" for the guy I want, even if it's not optimal value.... Especially if you pick around the corners, optimal "value" for your picks might not be possible or desirable.

 

(BTW, this is also why mid-round picks are underrated IMO, because it's much easier to play the "value" game there)

Edited August 23, 2012 by delusions of grandeur

[Cyclones]

I think your draft spot factors into this as well. I had the 10th pick in my money league draft last night (10 team league) and waiting 18 picks every time after the 1/2 turn, lots of guys get snapped up. I reached last night a bit taking Nicks/Nelson at 3.10/4.1, but those guys both would have been gone by the time the 50th pick rolled around, so waiting wasn't an option. If I had a middling pick, I may have been able to wait on Nicks. ADP is a good tool to use, but as was pointed out earlier, it doesn't take trending into account, and let's face it, we all have different guys we target and like.

 

QB Rivers,Cutler

RB Lynch, Richardson, D. Brown, Ry. Williams, D. Thomas

WR C. Johnson, Nicks, Nelson, Hankerson

TE Finley, Celek

K Crosy

DST Steelers, Texans

[Sprtfan]

BB, I hear you. But I think it matters where your "jumping" rounds. If your taking a guy in the 2nd when his ADP is in the 4th, I think that may be to much. But if your taking a guy in the 7th when his ADP is in the 9th, then I'm all for it

 

 

The examples I was thinking of when I posted this thread was Sproles (ADP early-mid 3rd) and Reggie Bush (ADP late 4th-early 5th) For example, the Huddle has Sproles at 10th and Bush at 17th overall. In this example you would be jumping ADP couple rounds for each probably if going right off the draft sheet. In the past I would reach probably 1 round for a guy I wanted depending on where I was on the turn. I was curious if people would reach further or if they tried to play the max value game and potentially miss out.

[keggerz]

As with everything it really depends...but the more you know about how drafts are going, accounting for ADP, how teams are shaping up etc all goes into evaluating if you need to jump or can wait on a guy...also another example is understanding your draft spot...is SOFA IDP I landed the 1.1...I value JPP and Jared Allen a TON this year, and with swing picks if you can get both I love the move...problem is that both are going usually in the 5th to 6th rounds...usually mid to late 5th for JPP...so knowing that if I want both I have two scenarios....take them at the 4/5 turn or wait and see if I can get both with the 6/7...the odds are clearly favoring 4/5 if I want them...so I had to figure out if the value was great enough to jump on them early....I did so I took them both at the 4/5...just figured that was a good example is all.

[detlef]

But it's predicated on being right. If you're getting your picks right you're not losing anything. If you aren't it doesn't matter how perfectly you "played the game". I trust myself to be right a whole lot more than I do for ADP to hold true.

 

Like BB eluded to earlier, ask me this same question 10 years ago, and I'm all about following my list entirely and having people ask "who?" as I make picks. Because everyone was drafting off Athlon magazines.

 

Now it's no longer the case, and the ADP is basically an aggregate of many FF website cheat sheets, a lot of which are certainly fine. In other words, I'm really not in leagues where I'm the only one who realizes that this or that player is the bomb.

 

So now that edge no longer exists, it really just is about ego. You may think you know, and I'm not doubting that you're a smart guy who has knack for this sort of thing, but you really don't. Because if you truly did know, then you wouldn't be paying a guy like DMD for being mostly right.

 

The OP mentioned Bush and Sproles. IMO, those guys are perfect examples, at least to me, of not getting carried away with ignoring ADP. I think the Huddle has them higher than they ought to be and I've got my reasons for feeling that way. However, the fact that he's got Sproles as a top 10 overall in PPR and because I value his opinion, means I'm going to take a much longer look at him than I likely would have. But I'll be damned if I'm taking him off the board in the first 15 picks. No freaking way. Now, sometime before his ADP of 30 or so, I might say, "well, crap, DMD's got this guy top 10 and here I am at 27, if there's nobody else I'm truly fired up about, maybe I should just pull the trigger."

[keggerz]

Haven't read the entire thread so not sure if this has been said or not...if I really like a guy but there is someone I could live with if I missed out on him then I am going to try and let him fall...basically it is about tiers...but if the guy is really th last in a tier of guys and I don't really like thebunch of them, then I pull the trigger early.

 

A draft is fluid, you don't just need a plan, you need multiple plans that address the different ways that a draft can break.

[flemingd]

Now it's no longer the case, and the ADP is basically an aggregate of many FF website cheat sheets, a lot of which are certainly fine. In other words, I'm really not in leagues where I'm the only one who realizes that this or that player is the bomb.

That's exactly my point. 10 years ago we could sit there and get Ray Rice (2009) in the 14th round. We could sneak Sproles in in the 12th. Jimmy Graham isn't on those donkeys' magazines, it's too full of Brent Celek and Kellen Winslow circle jerks. There is no such thing as a sleeper any more. Now everyone knows who Torrey Smith is. Hell everyone knows who Josh Gordon is. Now what separates the men from the boys is who's right. It only takes one other guy to have seen Sportscenter one night or have gotten a tweet that Arian Foster just blew up for 200 yards in a pre-season game and all of a sudden he's a 4th round pick instead of a 9th. It's no longer about what you know, it's when you pull the trigger on what you know. And it only takes one other owner to ruin it.

 

So now that edge no longer exists, it really just is about ego. You may think you know, and I'm not doubting that you're a smart guy who has knack for this sort of thing, but you really don't. Because if you truly did know, then you wouldn't be paying a guy like DMD for being mostly right.

You sell us short. You know, I know, most of us here know. That's why we're here and it's why we keep coming back. We know what the key things to look for are, we know the danger signs, we know a ton of nuances that most FF players don't. All you gotta do is head over to the advice forum the week before draft day if you wanna see just how true this is.

 

While some random donkey is drafting an old, banged up Portis we're out there realizing Ray Rice is the next feature back. We all saw Jimmy Graham coming a mile away, we just didn't expect it this soon this heavily. We all realized Moss going from Aaron Brooks to Brady as a QB had some big potential and weren't letting him get too far down that ol' draft board. I'm paying DMD for that extra little insight, those little nuggets about the offensive line, the history that RB has with the new OC in town. I'm sure neither of us is taking someone else's rankings list to a draft as gospel, and that's because we know.