Huddle Auction Values

[Easy n Dirty]

Am doing an auction draft for the first time later this week and am looking for help wherever I can get it.

 

I'm a little confused by some of the auction values assigned by The Huddle. For the top 2 running backs, the Huddle has an auction value whch is more than 40% higher than the average going price according to MFL's average auction value tool. I understand that the site's role is not to simply regrugitate average values, but this kind of discrepancy seems very large. Having never done an auction draft before, I'm trying to figure out how high to bid on a premium player like Foster, Rice, etc. - a 40% premium to the average value feels very steep.

 

Any guidance from experienced auction players here? Assuming a $200 bankroll, how much is the most you would expect to pay for any player, be it Foster, Rice, Rodgers, etc.

 

TIA.

[Double Agent]

Auction values and AAV are just a tool. Every league is very different. Last year in our league Rodgers went for $36. This year he went for $64. That's the same league, same owners, same scoring, etc.

 

Rank your players and set a budget per position. AAV won't matter then.

[flemingd]

Am doing an auction draft for the first time later this week and am looking for help wherever I can get it.

 

Any guidance from experienced auction players here? Assuming a $200 bankroll, how much is the most you would expect to pay for any player, be it Foster, Rice, Rodgers, etc.

 

TIA.

There are a ton of things that affect prices, and the crazy thing about auction leagues is that you may not even see them all come into play on any given draft. There really is no way to fully prepare for them. The best advice I can give you is don't drink, pay attention to everything, and TAKE NOTES. You will see some trends that can emerge and next time be more prepared for them. Why did Marshall go for $35 and right after him AJ Green went for $31? Why is Justin Blackmon at $17 and donkeys are still bidding? Why is Joe Blow at $130 but not bidding on any of the QB's? Why is that donkey tossing out kickers already?

 

It's all about the ebb and flow of money. Who has it, who has filled what, and what their spending profile is. You know how you are in a snake draft and you take a guy in the 5th round and everyone says "damn, he was my next pick" but the next pick is the same position and there's not a peep about it? The auction equivalent of that is Wayne going for $7 and Vjax going for $19. In a snake you can't trump that earlier guy that took the guy you "wanted" - you can in an auction. One year might see a bunch of guys be very conservative bidding early on WR's because the general feeling is that RB's are weak so they are saving up for the few good ones they like. The owner that takes advantage of this gets bargains there. Later, when everyone still has a ton of money (because no RB's are getting nominated) and they realize WR's are getting slim, all of a sudden they start going off. The guy that got aggressive early and got Maclin for $14 is loving watch Dez Bryant and Percy Harvin go for $24.

 

There are some excellent auction resources here if you are a paid member about preparing to prepare for an auction draft.

 

The one absolute I will tell you is that if it's a keeper league that you are highly confident will survive long term, hold money and go bargain hunting. You'll miss on some, but you'll hit on some and they will pay in spades. Cedric Benson went for $3 this weekend. Miles Austin for $7.DHB was $4. Those were the ones that stood out most, but of course another half dozen will come to fruition as well. One owner in our league came in with DeMarco Murray at $5, Matt Forte at $7, Victor Cruz at $4, Jordy Nelson at $1, and Gronkowski at $10. Thankfully he's a moron and will find a way to SNICKERS it up, but that is a scary, scary opponent on paper.

[Easy n Dirty]

Thanks fleming, that was helpful.

 

I have read alot here and elsewhere regarding auction drafts, and the most important thing I got out of it was the need to go in with a budget by position...but it seems like that would be alot easier if I had at least a sense of how much certain players might cost. I understand your point about the lack of predictability given the ebbs and flows (I have done auctions in connection with March Madness each year and have seen the exact same thing happening, where a #4 seed costs $18 early in the evening and $11 late in the evening). But still, when Michael Vick's average auction value per MFL is $20 and TheHuddle is telling me to go no higher than $4, I cannot help but wonder if I should be tossing TheHuddle's values out entirely. This is not just an isolated situation, there are a host of instances where TheHuddle's suggested values are way out of whack with the average auction values.

[Double Agent]

I have read alot here and elsewhere regarding auction drafts, and the most important thing I got out of it was the need to go in with a budget by position...but it seems like that would be alot easier if I had at least a sense of how much certain players might cost.

 

 

AAV will give you an idea but it's just impossible to predict with any sort of accuracy. It varies from league to league and year to year. The highest priced RB in our league went for $10 more than the highest priced RB last year. QB was $30 more. The only way I can prepare for an auction draft is to rank all my players and then create a position budget for my QB1, QB2, RB1, RB2, etc. Grab the best player you can that fits within the budget. If you overspend for a player then reduce another position by that amount so you don't completely blow your budget. AAV will give you enough info to create your budget.

[detlef]

I truly feel the Huddle's Auction Values cheat sheet is sort of a blemish on an otherwise very useful fantasy site.

 

Now, I'm not sure if such a list can even be accurately created, but that's another story entirely. Yes, every auction is different but having done several mocks this year, on different websites, following the huddle cheat sheet meant I was on an entirely different planet than anyone else.

 

I do think the Huddle has some nice resources for auction strategies, but IMO that cheat sheet is flawed to the point of not being very useful.

 

Most importantly, it fails to conform to its own tiering system.

[Whiskey Pimp]

I use this site for almost all of my fantasy tools but I stopped bringing the auction value cheatsheet a few years ago. I don't feel I need a sheet with average values or anything like that. I go with the flow of my auction and bid on a lot of players just to stay involved. Sometimes I get what I feel is great value and sometimes I feel I overpaid slightly but that's the price to pay if you really want a certain player.

[Easy n Dirty]

I truly feel the Huddle's Auction Values cheat sheet is sort of a blemish on an otherwise very useful fantasy site.

 

Now, I'm not sure if such a list can even be accurately created, but that's another story entirely. Yes, every auction is different but having done several mocks this year, on different websites, following the huddle cheat sheet meant I was on an entirely different planet than anyone else.

 

I do think the Huddle has some nice resources for auction strategies, but IMO that cheat sheet is flawed to the point of not being very useful.

 

Most importantly, it fails to conform to its own tiering system.

 

 

Exactly what I was trying to say, but you put it more succinctly. Thanks for the validation, I will proceed with the AAV as a lose guide as suggested by Double Agent. Good point also on the tiering, I had noticed that too.

 

Thanks for the help guys, pretty sure I'm going to muck this up anyway but it will be a learning experience. My saving grace is that while this is a new league for me, it is the first year that this particular league is going auction so I think most if not all of the owners will be equally inexperienced with the auction format.

[Whiskey Pimp]

If you are involved in bidding on a particular player just go $1 more than the previous bid and take your time thinking things through. Last night we had a new owner at our auction and he would jump up the bid by a large margin almost all the time. Some of the times he just saved us a few bids by saying $15 when the current bid was $5 and the player ended up going for just over $20. But I nominated Vincent Jackson for $1 and he blurts out $26! No one says a word so he wins VJax. Now know one knows what he would have gone for if there was a normal bidding process as if a few players were involved maybe he goes for a bit higher but in this case who knows how much he could have saved if he just said $2 and followed along.

[detlef]

Exactly what I was trying to say, but you put it more succinctly. Thanks for the validation, I will proceed with the AAV as a lose guide as suggested by Double Agent. Good point also on the tiering, I had noticed that too.

 

Thanks for the help guys, pretty sure I'm going to muck this up anyway but it will be a learning experience. My saving grace is that while this is a new league for me, it is the first year that this particular league is going auction so I think most if not all of the owners will be equally inexperienced with the auction format.

 

If you agree with the Huddle's basic cheat sheet, then I think one valuable way to gather a game plan is to compare it to AAV and see who seems to be going for less than they "should". Those might be guys to target in particular.

 

I also found it helpful to simply bring a cheat sheet (not with values) with me and write what everyone was going for as they sold. It was a really good way to see value when it presents itself. If everyone around a guy you've got ranked at a certain place is going for $30 and the bid stalls at $15 that may be your time.

 

Also, don't tip your hand. If you like a guy, don't raise too quickly. Act like you're not sure if you're willing to go another dollar. Let the count get to "going once". You might put doubt in the guy you're bidding against as to whether this player is worth it and you'll certainly scare off anyone who is simply trying to chase the bid up and make you pay more. Because if that dude thinks there's any shot he gets stuck with the player himself, he's not going to mess with you.

 

And, for the record, I think that budgeting for positions makes as much sense as going into a snake draft saying "I'm going to try and go RB/WR/WR or something like that. Essentially, you're doing the same thing. IMO, the idea, just like a snake draft, is to get out with as many good players as you can and budgeting for position may prevent you from finding value where it presents itself.

[Double Agent]

And, for the record, I think that budgeting for positions makes as much sense as going into a snake draft saying "I'm going to try and go RB/WR/WR or something like that. Essentially, you're doing the same thing. IMO, the idea, just like a snake draft, is to get out with as many good players as you can and budgeting for position may prevent you from finding value where it presents itself.

 

 

I've drafted with a budget sheet and without and I can tell you the budget sheet kept me in check. My first auction draft was without a budget and I had 4 studs and a ton of $1 players. I also missed out on a lot of value players later in the draft. I guess it depends on the person but if I don't have something to reference I'm like a kid in the candy store.

[detlef]

I've drafted with a budget sheet and without and I can tell you the budget sheet kept me in check. My first auction draft was without a budget and I had 4 studs and a ton of $1 players. I also missed out on a lot of value players later in the draft. I guess it depends on the person but if I don't have something to reference I'm like a kid in the candy store.

 

I guess I was referring to the bit about "I'm going to try to spend x on my QBs, y on my RBs..."

 

Sure, I think you should have a plan and, I guess, a budget in general. Like not spend any more than $100 on any two players or something so you don't go bat poop like you mentioned. But whether you spend that money on two RBs or an elite QB and RB, really shouldn't matter. If you spend big money on Foster and then, before you buy anyone else, think another elite RB is presenting a value, even if he's expensive, you shouldn't be held back by what you decided you'd spend on RBs.

[Big Country]

Thanks fleming, that was helpful.

 

I have read alot here and elsewhere regarding auction drafts, and the most important thing I got out of it was the need to go in with a budget by position...but it seems like that would be alot easier if I had at least a sense of how much certain players might cost. I understand your point about the lack of predictability given the ebbs and flows (I have done auctions in connection with March Madness each year and have seen the exact same thing happening, where a #4 seed costs $18 early in the evening and $11 late in the evening). But still, when Michael Vick's average auction value per MFL is $20 and TheHuddle is telling me to go no higher than $4, I cannot help but wonder if I should be tossing TheHuddle's values out entirely. This is not just an isolated situation, there are a host of instances where TheHuddle's suggested values are way out of whack with the average auction values.

 

 

I'm not completely familair with it, but does the MFL AAV take into account the fact that different leagues use different salary caps. For example, Vick for $20 in a $100 cap league is insane, but if that is a 200-300 cap league, it may make more sense. A 500 cap league (such as the one I am in) and it is right in line with the Huddle cheat sheet (in fact, in that particular league, Vick went for $17)

 

 

ETA: I see in the tools notes it says based on $200 of AVAILABLE funds, but does not specify if that is the league cap amount and they have normalized their data to it or not. One would think if they were normalizing their data, they would simply convert down to a base of 100 to make it a simple percentage that would be more easily applied to any cap size in a league.

Edited August 30, 2012 by Big Country

[Easy n Dirty]

I'm not completely familair with it, but does the MFL AAV take into account the fact that different leagues use different salary caps. For example, Vick for $20 in a $100 cap league is insane, but if that is a 200-300 cap league, it may make more sense. A 500 cap league (such as the one I am in) and it is right in line with the Huddle cheat sheet (in fact, in that particular league, Vick went for $17)

 

 

ETA: I see in the tools notes it says based on $200 of AVAILABLE funds, but does not specify if that is the league cap amount and they have normalized their data to it or not. One would think if they were normalizing their data, they would simply convert down to a base of 100 to make it a simple percentage that would be more easily applied to any cap size in a league.

 

 

I don't understand why you're differentiating between "available funds" versus the cap amount - seems clear to me that the AAV's are based on a spending limit at the draft of $200, but maybe there's something I don't understand here. I think the reason they use $200 rather than a base of 100 is that based on what I've been able to see in my research, $200 seems to be the most common amount used in auction leagues.

 

Thanks to all for the tips, this has been very helpful. Auction is tonight, I'll check in on this thread tomorrow and let you know how it went.

[Scooby's Hubby]

Dirty, just play some Dead and pass the ganja around the other owners won't know what hit 'em. Thats how I won TAR league auction

[Big Country]

I don't understand why you're differentiating between "available funds" versus the cap amount - seems clear to me that the AAV's are based on a spending limit at the draft of $200, but maybe there's something I don't understand here. I think the reason they use $200 rather than a base of 100 is that based on what I've been able to see in my research, $200 seems to be the most common amount used in auction leagues.

 

Thanks to all for the tips, this has been very helpful. Auction is tonight, I'll check in on this thread tomorrow and let you know how it went.

 

 

I'm differentiating because to me "available funds" and "cap amount" are extremely different things, so knowing how they are defining "available funds" would be pretty darn important in analyzing their AAV.

 

For example, in the 500 cap league I mentioned above - it is a keeper league, so even though the average available funds per team was right around $200, maybe closerto $225, but the auction values and the bidding is still based on a cap of 500.

 

Those results will and should be very different than what you would see in a league based on the same rules but where everyone has a cap of 200 to work with opposed to 500 to work with, even though in both leagues you have the same "available funds".

 

To me, it doesn't really matter what the average available funds are during the auction, it matters what the salary cap per team is, as that is what the player values are based on.

[Easy n Dirty]

BC - if I follow your last post, that would only apply to keeper leagues, yes? The AAV's I was looking at were based on redraft leagues only, because the auction I was preparing for was a redraft league.

 

Had the auction last night, need to chalk some of it up to a learning experience. I think I stuck too closely to the AAV's, since that was the only point of reference that I had, and I feel like I dropped out of a couple bidding wars earlier than was necessary. I also didn't do a great job of tracking what I had spent on various positions versus my original budget - end result being that at the end, I had more money than I needed for my last spot, which really ticked me off as that money could have been useful on some players where I backed off.

 

I like the team I ended up with and feel like I got some bargain. But having been through it once, I think I understand better the approach that Double Agent was pushing earlier in this thread. Live and learn. Here's where I ended up, with some commentary (this league requires us to draft 2 kickers and 2 defenses):

 

Matt Ryan, $26 - I was hoping to grab one of the big 3, but they went early for what I felt at the time were excessive prices (Rodgers $65, Brady $62, Brees $56). In hindsight I certainly could have gone a couple bucks more on brees, but not sure that would have gotten him anyway, might have just pushed the other guy a little further. Pretty happy with Ryan at this price point.

Roethlisberger, $10 - I thought this was a steal. I wasn't really pursuing a backup QB at this point but wasn't letting Ben go off the board for $9, was surprised but happy to get him for $10.

 

Marshawn Lynch, $32 - at this point, I was the only owner who had not yet purchased a player and was getting antsy about it. I did not intend to spend alot relatively speaking on RB but ended up making my two biggest purchases at this position. Still, I like Lynch quite a bit and especially at this price (as a point of reference, Demarco Murray went for $42, MJD $41, Jamal Charles $40, Ryan mathews $38, AP $36).

Matt Forte $38 - I like this value also (it's a PPR league), was prepared to go higher for him at this point in the draft (my plan was to spend big on QB and TE but those guys were overpriced in my opinion so I switched to investing at RB, was happy with the value I got on these two guys)

Kevin SMith $6 - things were moving quickly at this point and I stuck in a bid here without too much thought, was kind of hoping to get topped but ended up with him. Meh.

Ryan Williams $5 - love it.

Mark Ingram $6 - similar to the Kevin Smith situation, but I like Ingram a little better so I didn't mind getting stuck with him.

Beanie Wells $15 - this was my last pickup, the high price is simply a function of having too much money left in the bank so I threw him out there for whatever I had left.

 

Antonio Brown $13 - love it.

Reggie Wayne $8 - I think I like Wayne this year more than most, I think he's a great buy at this price.

Vincent Jackson $9 - I like him at this value also. Overall my receivers are weak, see regrets belwo.

 

Aaron Hernandez $20 - consolation prize after missing out on gronk and Graham, who went for $37 and $34, respectively. $20 was higher than I would like to have spent here, especially as Gates later went for $15 and Finley for $11.

Jermaine Gresham $2 - had a couple deeper sleepers I liked at TE, just threw this bid out there and was surprised to end up with him. My favorite TE sleeper, Olsen, went for $6, and Martellus Bennet went for $2 later on.

 

Kickers and defenses - I tried to grab a premium kicker a couple of times early in the evening for $2 but ended up getting competing bids, which I did not expect. Ended up getting Henery and Graham, Falcons and Lions.

 

Biggest regret is of course losing track late of how much I had left versus how many spots I had to fill, or put another way not adjusting my original budget for actual spending. Specific regrets are not going harder after Torre Smith, who went for $14, and Stevan Ridley, who went for $11. I do like the squad I ended up with, but I'd like it a heck of alot better if I had Torrey MSith instead of say Kevin Smith.

 

Thanks again for all the help guys.

Edited August 31, 2012 by Easy n Dirty

[delfamdelfam]

So:

 

Ryan, Lynch, Forte, Brown, Jackson, Wayne, Hernandez

 

Don't see how you can do much better than that, super solid starting lineup with good backup RB's.

 

Is 3 WR's all you have?

[detlef]

Some people make a bigger deal out of making sure they spend all their jack than they should. For starters, you can't go back in time, so it's not worth killing yourself over missing out on a certain player because you didn't spend another dollar (that you only later realized you had to spare). And, who knows whether it would have really only taken that extra dollar or more.

 

Secondly, it's a bit of a self-fulfilling situation. If you're the only guy with any money at the end, then there's nobody to bid against you and you get guys that should cost $10 for $2-4. So it can actually be impossible to spend your money at a certain point.

 

On the flip side, you get to poach any and all sleepers that the guys with $1 are forced to throw out on their turn, hoping to end up with them themselves.

 

That's the effed up thing about being one of the first to be out of money. You can't raise anyone, so the only way of getting the guys you want is to offer them up. However, in doing so, you risk someone coming in and taking them away for even as little as $2. Something the last guy with money doesn't have to worry about.

Edited August 31, 2012 by detlef

[Double Agent]

Had the auction last night, need to chalk some of it up to a learning experience. I think I stuck too closely to the AAV's, since that was the only point of reference that I had, and I feel like I dropped out of a couple bidding wars earlier than was necessary. I also didn't do a great job of tracking what I had spent on various positions versus my original budget - end result being that at the end, I had more money than I needed for my last spot, which really ticked me off as that money could have been useful on some players where I backed off.

 

 

I think you did great. Excellent value on Matt Ryan when comparing his value against the "studs". I think you also got great value on your WRs and Hernandez. RBs are solid too. Great first Auction Draft.