Tight ends this year: R E S P E C T

[bostonsoxandy]

This is something that people seem to be missing about Gronkowski this year that have a lot of people moving him down in FF drafts - if his production from last year (which was admittedly ridiculous but was due to the incredibly one-sided mismatches he creates and not due to some fluke) were cut by 1/3rd, he would have still been the 2nd best FF TE by a long shot. That's about as safe as one can get. I know Graham and Hernandez are sexy picks this year, but Gronk is being way undervalued this year by many, IMO.

 

 

Pats homer here and I would much much much rather wait on TE. Gronkowski is a stud, no question, but with McDaniels as OC -- and he has been given a lot of freedom -- he has never utilized TEs well. Atleast with Hernandez they can move him out as a WR and use him there, he's that athletic. I think Gronk is going to be extremely valuable to the Pats still but should see more run blocking and pass blocking than last year. TDs should stil be money for a baker's dozen or so, but his catches/targets may be limited.

[Rileyrott]

Good point Boston. McDaniels does bring a different "influence" to the Pats. Having watched him in Denver, the TE position was under-utilized, as you say. While I agree that Gronk will still be extremely valuable, Hernandez should see lots of looks as well.

[Joebirds55]

I don't think McDaniels will impact gronks productions like you say. I mean he is flat out unstoppable uncoverable beastly. He had 10 scores followed by his year last year...do u really think McDaniels will be that influential of his numbers? I don't. Coaches need to adapt their schemes to the weapons they have (jets ground and pound due to Sanchez sucking so bad) and don't give me Lloyd, he's had one good year. Now I don't think gronk will have 17 scores or so but 14 and 1k yards is def possible if healthy. I mean that's like the lions not using Calvin Johnson bc a new coach doesn't have history of utilizing his wrs

[awahl63]

I'm rolling with the combo of Fleener and Gresham this year (both taken relatively late obviously)

 

I'm expecting a decent rookie campaign from Luck considering they will be coming from behind 90% of the time and the go-to for any QB is the TE who just happens to be one of his favorite targets back at Stanford. We shall see how it plays out.

 

Gresham is a great run blocking TE with freak athleticism. If he can stay healthy and click with Dalton (whodoesn't have a wicked Sophomore slump) he may have some upside.

 

All in all, there is plenty of interesting tight ends this year that can be had in various ADP's

[Thews40]

Interesting how the analysis by Thews40 above labels the TE as "bad" but the RB as serviceable in the comparison of the two players you get based on what kind of TE you go for. I'd argue that the TE you get with the "good RB" is more serviceable than the RB you get with the top TE. Especially since if you pass on the top TE you probably aren't taking one until several rounds later, after you've been drafting your RB/WR/QB slots.

 

I'll agree to disagree. The ledge is steep on TE's. If you can start two (this is key), having two always gives you trade bait that probably half of your league is interested in. If injury doesn't strike, then you're money... if it does, you have an option to fill the WR or RB void with one of them. Sure there may be a TE to emerge, but if history plays out only the top 6 will be of good value. Your #3 WR or #2 RB has to cover the delta. Choose wisely and this isn't an issue. Have luck cover you against injury and again it isn't an issue. I still contend that a top TE and a serviceable WR or RB has more value than a bottom 7 on TE that doesn't score many points than a higher TE + a lower WR/RB.

Edited August 31, 2012 by Thews40

[Joebirds55]

 

I'll agree to disagree. The ledge is steep on TE's. If you can start two (this is key), having two always gives you trade bait that probably half of your league is interested in. If injury doesn't strike, then you're money... if it does, you have an option to fill the WR or RB void with one of them. Sure there may be a TE to emerge, but if history plays out only the top 6 will be of good value. Your #3 WR or #2 RB has to cover the delta. Choose wisely and this isn't an issue. Have luck cover you against injury and again it isn't an issue. I still contend that a top TE and a serviceable WR or RB has more value than a bottom 7 on TE that doesn't score many points than a higher TE + a lower WR/RB.

 

[Joebirds55]

Sorry messed up my reply haha so my team for instance I have gronk and Gonzalez along with turner and fjax. It's true that I passed on some top rbs for gronk but what are your thoughts? Should I start Gonzalez as a flex? Or go with someone like garçon?

[stevegrab]

I'll agree to disagree. The ledge is steep on TE's. If you can start two (this is key), having two always gives you trade bait that probably half of your league is interested in. If injury doesn't strike, then you're money... if it does, you have an option to fill the WR or RB void with one of them. Sure there may be a TE to emerge, but if history plays out only the top 6 will be of good value. Your #3 WR or #2 RB has to cover the delta. Choose wisely and this isn't an issue. Have luck cover you against injury and again it isn't an issue. I still contend that a top TE and a serviceable WR or RB has more value than a bottom 7 on TE that doesn't score many points than a higher TE + a lower WR/RB.

 

 

Ok, but starting 2 TE wasn't something discussed through the thread.

 

Agreeing to disagree (no matter in our league, Gronk and Graham were keepers, and Hernandez will go before I can afford to pick him because I need to draft 3 RB in the first 3-4 rounds.

[Gopher]

I think the position is deeper than it's ever been. I've never seen a year where you could make a pretty solid argument for so many guys to potentially put up decent numbers. Heck, go beyond the top dozen or so, and there are still a bunch of guys who I consider to be decent sleepers... Celek, Daniels, Tamme, Cook, Keller, Dickson, Miller, Kendricks, etc. Go beyond that, to guys who aren't even being drafted in many 12-team leagues, and I still see a fairly decent list of potential sleepers... the "other" Davis (not Vernon or Fred, but Kellen), Watson, Lewis, Clark, Winslow, etc. They're not going to scratch the top 10-15, but I think some of those guys could at least be an adequate bye-week filler, or backup in deeper leagues.

 

That said, I really like Rudolph to lead MIN in targets/receptions... I think he'll be top-10 as long as he's healthy, with upside to sniff the top five, particularly in PPR leagues.

[Gopher]

That said, just because the position is deep, doesn't mean that I don't think there's value to be had early. If you can land Graham or Gronk in the second round in PPR leagues, particularly leagues with tiered PPR, I think it's a no-brainer. Same can be said for some of the other second-tier guys... Hernandez, Gates, Vernon, Fred, Finley. What's interesting about that group, for the most part, is that you can truly make arguments on both sides, for nearly all of them.

 

Gates - Supposedly healthy for the first time in a while, and looks to once again be Rivers' #1 target. But his health over the past couple of years has people leery. I've seen him drafted super-early, based on potential, and as a relatively later value pick (due to the injury concerns/history).

 

Vernon - Last year's post-season showed what he's capable of... The guy is a freak. But, like somebody else said, he's never been able to consistently put up numbers.

 

Hernandez - Seemed to be trending last year, towards the end of the season, towards becoming one of Brady's favorite targets. But, you still have so many other weapons to share with... Gronk, Welker, Lloyd, just to name the obvious ones.

 

Finley - Has largely been an under-achiever, fantasy-wise. Now there are rumors that he's losing touches to Williams. That said, he was still top five last year, so he can't fall too far before someone takes a chance on him.

 

Fred - He's the man in Washington, or is he? Sounds like he had a quiet pre-season, so the question becomes whether that's a reflection of a lack of chemistry between RG3 and himself, or was it just Washington trying to give some other guys (Paul) time on the field at a new position.

 

Witten - He's still capable of being the top fantasy producer at his position, when healthy, but how bad is his injury, and how far does he fall as a result?

 

Gonzalez - Mr. Consistency... He's missed something like two games in 15 years. Does it end this year, or does he have another solid season in store for fantasy owners?

 

Gresham - I think he's got the potential to be a top-five TE, particularly in TD-heavy scoring leagues. But, potential is just that, and with the depth this year at TE, potential isn't going to get you any higher than the 10-12 range.

 

Olsen - Quiet sleeper. He could be the benefactor, if Cam's rushing TD total drops from last year, as many expect it to. But again, speculation and potential isn't going to get you into the top ten... Not this year.

 

Rudolph - From what I've seen/heard, he's Ponder's favorite target, and will be a nice safety-valve for the 2nd year QB. Still, there's a certain amount of risk involved, when you rely on a guy based on potential and situation, when he has little to back it up, in terms of past performance (at the NFL level).

 

Pettigrew - Might be the safest pick, in terms of reaching his projections (or at least getting very close to them). Barring injury, I don't see any way that he's not Stafford's #2 option, or a very close 3rd. Detroit's running game is a big question mark, in terms of who they'll rely on... I see them airing it out quite a bit this year, and BP will certainly be in the mix, particularly in the red zone.

 

Celek - Has potential, but he's another guy on a team with a lot of weapons in the passing game.

 

Bennett - Big risk/reward pick, IMO. If you can grab him as your 3rd TE, or 2nd in deep leagues, he's worth a shot. I wouldn't want to rely on him as my top guy, though.

 

Daniels - Houston pass offense looks sharp, but he's not that far removed from major injury. Still, he's another guy who was top-ten when healthy, and not that long ago.

 

Tamme - More risk/reward, and it's 100% tied to Manning and his health.

 

I could go on and on... Dickson has Pitta, Lewis was a non-factor after double-digit TD's not long ago, etc. The bottom line is that there is a lot of value to be had at the TE position this year, but in every draft, it plays out a little bit differently. Personally, I haven't gone into a single draft, knowing exactly what I was going to do at TE. In one, I took Graham because I felt he was good value, considering the format. In others, I've waited and taken guys like Rudolph, Gresham, Dickson, and Keller... Again, because I felt the value was right.

 

Should be interesting to see the season play out... Obviously, not everybody is going to live up to their potential.

[Square]

I think the position is deeper than it's ever been. I've never seen a year where you could make a pretty solid argument for so many guys to potentially put up decent numbers.

That's kind of how I see it. The hype is up on the TE position and the top 2 were taking in the middle of the second round in my local draft last night. I waited and picked up more RBs and WRs so we'll see how it pans out. I'm carrying F. Davis and K. Rudolph so hopefully one of them is a regular point maker. Even with the great year TEs had last year, I made it to the superbowl with B. Pettigrew and Ballard.

[Thews40]

That said, just because the position is deep, doesn't mean that I don't think there's value to be had early. If you can land Graham or Gronk in the second round in PPR leagues, particularly leagues with tiered PPR, I think it's a no-brainer. Same can be said for some of the other second-tier guys... Hernandez, Gates, Vernon, Fred, Finley. What's interesting about that group, for the most part, is that you can truly make arguments on both sides, for nearly all of them.

 

Gates - Supposedly healthy for the first time in a while, and looks to once again be Rivers' #1 target. But his health over the past couple of years has people leery. I've seen him drafted super-early, based on potential, and as a relatively later value pick (due to the injury concerns/history).

 

Vernon - Last year's post-season showed what he's capable of... The guy is a freak. But, like somebody else said, he's never been able to consistently put up numbers.

 

Hernandez - Seemed to be trending last year, towards the end of the season, towards becoming one of Brady's favorite targets. But, you still have so many other weapons to share with... Gronk, Welker, Lloyd, just to name the obvious ones.

 

Finley - Has largely been an under-achiever, fantasy-wise. Now there are rumors that he's losing touches to Williams. That said, he was still top five last year, so he can't fall too far before someone takes a chance on him.

 

Fred - He's the man in Washington, or is he? Sounds like he had a quiet pre-season, so the question becomes whether that's a reflection of a lack of chemistry between RG3 and himself, or was it just Washington trying to give some other guys (Paul) time on the field at a new position.

 

Witten - He's still capable of being the top fantasy producer at his position, when healthy, but how bad is his injury, and how far does he fall as a result?

 

Agree with the above... cept for Fred Davis.

 

Gonzalez - Mr. Consistency... He's missed something like two games in 15 years. Does it end this year, or does he have another solid season in store for fantasy owners?

 

Gresham - I think he's got the potential to be a top-five TE, particularly in TD-heavy scoring leagues. But, potential is just that, and with the depth this year at TE, potential isn't going to get you any higher than the 10-12 range.

 

Olsen - Quiet sleeper. He could be the benefactor, if Cam's rushing TD total drops from last year, as many expect it to. But again, speculation and potential isn't going to get you into the top ten... Not this year.

 

Rudolph - From what I've seen/heard, he's Ponder's favorite target, and will be a nice safety-valve for the 2nd year QB. Still, there's a certain amount of risk involved, when you rely on a guy based on potential and situation, when he has little to back it up, in terms of past performance (at the NFL level).

 

Pettigrew - Might be the safest pick, in terms of reaching his projections (or at least getting very close to them). Barring injury, I don't see any way that he's not Stafford's #2 option, or a very close 3rd. Detroit's running game is a big question mark, in terms of who they'll rely on... I see them airing it out quite a bit this year, and BP will certainly be in the mix, particularly in the red zone.

 

Celek - Has potential, but he's another guy on a team with a lot of weapons in the passing game.

 

Bennett - Big risk/reward pick, IMO. If you can grab him as your 3rd TE, or 2nd in deep leagues, he's worth a shot. I wouldn't want to rely on him as my top guy, though.

 

Daniels - Houston pass offense looks sharp, but he's not that far removed from major injury. Still, he's another guy who was top-ten when healthy, and not that long ago.

 

Tamme - More risk/reward, and it's 100% tied to Manning and his health.

 

In the above, there's "potential" as we don't know what this year holds. With Fred Davis, RG3 is an unknown. When you look at position vs. predicted outcome in years past, the TE's are the most consistent IMO. Featured TE's are there for a reason, and that's because the offense factors them in. Again, more weapons, more targets. I still say Graham/Gronk/Hernandez/Vernon/Witten will be in the top six (barring injury). Finley has the best shot to outperform, but the rest of the pack will be hit/miss. Gonzo is getting old, but when healthy he's money. The thing about TE's is they have to block too and take a pounding. Gates could be Gates again, but if you're getting shots before each game to make it through I just don't see how you hold up. SD isn't going to be good IMO. Mathews and the hurt on this team is just too much. We'll see, but if you're staring Celek each week, there's going to be more than a few 30 yards and two catch games. Tamme is the dark horse, and like you pointed out is hinging on Manning's health.