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Something I've Been Pondering


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As I am only 22 years old I've only been following the NFL extensively since I was about 13-14 (right around when I first started playing pop warner). But that is long enough to have witnessed NFL go from a balanced run/pass attack to more than half the teams being extremely more reliant on the passing game.

 

So my thought is, is this the future for the NFL where all offenses run just to keep defenses honest? Or as defenses get faster, and more and more importance gets put on the DB's on the field, will there be another shift in the NFL? And the run game becomes the thing to rely on just as the passing game has done it recent years?

 

Something I've been thinking about for a few weeks just wanted to see what you more experienced and knowledgable football fans think.

 

Let the debate begin!

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There are a few factors to consider here. First - the NFL gets fed by college players and the skills they learn there come into the NFL. Once upon a time, the NCAA was very much about the run game and produced great RBs. Now there are more college programs with wide open passing. Think about Nebraska, Oklahoma, etc. that once had stud RBs but now pass. Coaches will use players for their talents.

 

The NFL is also a copycat league so whatever works for someone else, will be replicated. Recent Superbowl winners? NYG, GB, NO, PIT, IND, NE - all of them are predicated on the pass and mostly have complicated passing schemes. Defenses win championships but having a great pass attack has been a help as well.

 

Another factor is the cat and mouse game between Offenses and Defenses. Offenses evolve to stay ahead of defenses that always catch up. That makes for more complexity but eventually a cyclical situation where once the defenses are set up to kill the pass, offenses will go back to the run if that works better.

 

Lastly, you have the NFL that wants exciting, high scoring games and they can control that in part by rules about bumping receivers, no hits on the QB, etc.

 

You are talking about a complex forecast where the NFL is headed. Mostly I think it is headed for 18 games and I think that is probably excessive. Passing is here to stay though - at least for the forseeable future and they like the higher scores, bigger plays and more excitement.

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All I know is the Cowboys sure are better when Murray is running well and I think the same can be said for New England, too. We saw last week that without a running game, Green Bay is beatable by a team that does run the ball well. All in all, a good running game makes your defense better and less fatigued.

 

As far as percentage of plays called and balance, a playcaller is more effective calling plays that the defense least suspects, creating more opportunity for a higher average of yards gained per play and less 3rd and longs.

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I like a long pass play as much as anyone, but give me a good run any day. It's always unexpected when a running back bursts through for a long gain, and usually they have to break a lot more tackles or at least elude more defenders to do so. Stud WRs are a dime a dozen. I have a lot more respect and admiration for the skill set and toughness that a top RB must possess.

 

IMO it will be a detriment to the game if the current trend continues. It's still a lot of fun to watch now, but I don't want to see the running back position eroded any further.

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DMD was right on. If you look at history, the game was predicated on the running game. College after college churned out back after back. The NFL adapted by increasing their ability by increasing the size and athleticism of the O line. The Cowboys adopted that philosophy during the 90's when they had 300 pounders that were strong and agile helping Emmitt to reach the Stars. Now everyone in the league has maximized there line size and speed. Then you saw SF prove you could win with a small line and the short passing game to take advantage speed. NE showed that also. The passing attack can be used as an extended running game getting players in space quickly to take advantage of smaller speedy players against linebackers. GB does that also now without much of a running game to speak of.

 

Now your seeing a focus on speed and talent in the secondary. Teams that have 3 or 4 good corners are able to do more defensively to stop the K gun or West Coast offenses. They are putting speed on speed so as to negate that speed in space advantage. If you'll notice there is a push for size and speed at wide out now. Teams are looking for that 6'4" Megatron type WR more so now then ever. The Seahawks are a team that sees that coming and have monsters in their secondary to combat this move. Only problem is they will struggle with the 5' 9" slot scat guys with two way go's like Welker.

 

Overall the athleticism all over the field is getting much better. Your going to see more and more athletes coming out in the QB position also. The days of the pocket passer are moving towards a more mobile type QB to compensate for the speed of defenses. Being able to by that extra time in the pocket is going to be huge. If Tebow could throw, he would be the equivalent of putting another back in the Offense giving the O more options.

 

With the rules in the NFL now so Offense friendly the DB's will have to get bigger and stronger to play tougher in the 5 yard jam area to effect the timing a routes of the receivers.

 

But all in all the NFL is only going to change so much. It has been and always will be a game of speed. talent and smarts. Advantages are fleeting because when something works, pro coaches find a way to stop it. So basically its a great game of cat and mouse week in week out, year in and year out. There is only so much you can do with X's and O's and the talent you have. When you boil it all down it comes to one thing.

 

The team that wins more of the individual battles against the man in front of him come out on top that day. That will not change. This is truly a game of inches and as someone once said "you have to have 53 other guys who are wiling to fight for that inch............... scratch, claw and bleed for that inch" in order to win.

Edited by Cowboyz1
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Another trend we're seeing this year is the speedy small WR being used more in the backfield, Cobb (GB), Hawkins (CIN) and McCluster (KC) are 3 that come to mind. Watching the CIN-BAL game I was very impressed with how Hawkins was used. For some teams like GB its a way to get anoth skilled receiving threat on the field. For all of them it's more formations and types of plays that can be run with favorable match-ups over the defense. The use of multiple TE is another recent trend, not just NE but other teams. Watching STL-DET you could see DET doing this a lot with both Pettigrew and Schefler out there at one time, giving the defense fits with match-ups.

 

About the only time you see most of those thrown out the window and go back to an old school running first offense is in terrible weather conditions, like the Bills-Browns game a number of years ago during a blizzard. Sure teams still throw some (offensive player has the advantage knowing where the route goes), but they run a lot more and it becomes more important to have that in you offense at that time.

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There are a few factors to consider here. First - the NFL gets fed by college players and the skills they learn there come into the NFL. Once upon a time, the NCAA was very much about the run game and produced great RBs. Now there are more college programs with wide open passing. Think about Nebraska, Oklahoma, etc. that once had stud RBs but now pass. Coaches will use players for their talents.

 

The NFL is also a copycat league so whatever works for someone else, will be replicated. Recent Superbowl winners? NYG, GB, NO, PIT, IND, NE - all of them are predicated on the pass and mostly have complicated passing schemes. Defenses win championships but having a great pass attack has been a help as well.

 

Another factor is the cat and mouse game between Offenses and Defenses. Offenses evolve to stay ahead of defenses that always catch up. That makes for more complexity but eventually a cyclical situation where once the defenses are set up to kill the pass, offenses will go back to the run if that works better.

 

Lastly, you have the NFL that wants exciting, high scoring games and they can control that in part by rules about bumping receivers, no hits on the QB, etc.

 

You are talking about a complex forecast where the NFL is headed. Mostly I think it is headed for 18 games and I think that is probably excessive. Passing is here to stay though - at least for the forseeable future and they like the higher scores, bigger plays and more excitement.

 

I couldn't have said it better myself.

 

While I totally think the NFL trend is cyclical, and all things remaining the same, the NFL will eventually get back to "run first". BUT, if the "player safety" issue gets more tedious - and it looks like that IS the case - I can also envision an NFL where it's basically flag football on steroids. In that scenario, I see "pass happy" with the occasional run draw play to keep defenses on their toes. I sure hope the NFL does not become a glorified flag football league but it sure seems to be heading that way.

 

I've said this numerous times regarding prevention of concussions - take the helmets off or go back to leather helmets. It's the helmet that makes defenders fearless and treat their bodies like torpedos. Take away the helmet and I GUARANTEE concussions decrease dramatically. How many concussions occur in a Rugby season? I bet not that many.

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I couldn't have said it better myself.

 

While I totally think the NFL trend is cyclical, and all things remaining the same, the NFL will eventually get back to "run first". BUT, if the "player safety" issue gets more tedious - and it looks like that IS the case - I can also envision an NFL where it's basically flag football on steroids. In that scenario, I see "pass happy" with the occasional run draw play to keep defenses on their toes. I sure hope the NFL does not become a glorified flag football league but it sure seems to be heading that way.

 

I've said this numerous times regarding prevention of concussions - take the helmets off or go back to leather helmets. It's the helmet that makes defenders fearless and treat their bodies like torpedos. Take away the helmet and I GUARANTEE concussions decrease dramatically. How many concussions occur in a Rugby season? I bet not that many.

 

 

I would love to see Patrick Willis running around in one of these beauts: http://news.sportslogos.net/2012/06/12/the-safest-nfl-face-mask-ever/screen-shot-2012-06-12-at-16h27-42/

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Yeah I definitely don't like all the rules changes for player safety, I love the idea but it is ruining the game.

 

Back on topic, I just miss it being a run first league, yeah I love the big pass play deep in the fourth quarter to put your team up, but nothing is more exciting than a big run. I think the most exciting moments in recent memory is the run Lynch had last year I think against the Saints, that was single most exciting play in the last 2-3 years in my opinion.

 

I just hope one day soon the league does shift again and it becomes a running league.

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We have seen teams go to 12 personnel (2 TE) sets to create mismatches for Defenses. But what if they start finding 6'6" 300 lb athletic Tackles that can catch and run them down field on a tackle eligible play like they do in the redzone.

 

He may only be able to do it three or four times before he's gassed but I can see it happening.

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I'm going to bring this post back from the dead again, I was on pro-reference looking at a lot of 70's and 80's quarterback/running back stats. A quarterback throwing for 4,000 yards definitely isn't a new thing, it's happened numerous times (even when the season was only 14 games). A QB throwing for 4,000 yards in a 14 game season compared to a QB throwing for 5,000 yards in a 16 game schedule their yards per game are pretty close. So my question is, is this the first time teams have been more reliant on passing in NFL history? Or is this the second or even third time? As we all know history loves to repeats itself, so in ten years, what are your guys predictions for what the NFL will be?

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I'm going to bring this post back from the dead again, I was on pro-reference looking at a lot of 70's and 80's quarterback/running back stats. A quarterback throwing for 4,000 yards definitely isn't a new thing, it's happened numerous times (even when the season was only 14 games). A QB throwing for 4,000 yards in a 14 game season compared to a QB throwing for 5,000 yards in a 16 game schedule their yards per game are pretty close. So my question is, is this the first time teams have been more reliant on passing in NFL history? Or is this the second or even third time? As we all know history loves to repeats itself, so in ten years, what are your guys predictions for what the NFL will be?

 

History does tend to repeat itself, but I'm not sure that applies when you're talking about an ever-evolving sport. I mean, no the history of forward passing being illegal is not going to repeat itself, and similarly a time when there weren't strict player safety rules isn't likely to repeat itself either (thus defenses will be inhibited).

 

As for 4,000 yards being somewhat common, yes it was, but it was only just a few years ago when 4,000 yards was still top production, and flirting with 4,500-5,000 was pretty rare. Now you've got multiple guys passing for ~5,000 and also lower-end fantasy starters like Ryan, Fitzpatrick, Romo, Roethlisberger, Rivers passing for over 4,000 (also Cam did as well, in addition to all he picked up with his legs).

 

An additional thing to consider is that you have to remain pretty stacked on the defensive side of the ball to be able to rely heavily on your defense over offense, whereas a great QB can make every single person on your offense better (while your RBs of course take significant risk of having a shortened career). There will still be outliers of course, but IMO, there are plenty of other reasons why the NFL transitioning into a passing league is here to stay.

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We have seen teams go to 12 personnel (2 TE) sets to create mismatches for Defenses. But what if they start finding 6'6" 300 lb athletic Tackles that can catch and run them down field on a tackle eligible play like they do in the redzone.

 

He may only be able to do it three or four times before he's gassed but I can see it happening.

 

 

Randall McDaniel could've done that. He ran track and was pretty good at it.

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The NFL is changing to more passing. The RBBC is the norm for most teams, but for those that have RB guns (Ravens/Houston) it demands respect. When you have to respect the run, it makes the opposing D what they're going to do. Elite RB's like Rice make the difference, which is why I like Houston's passing game this year. Green Bay is weak at RB and become more predictable... same for Atlanta, so being a pass-first offense becomes easier to plan. Let time give some film for this year and see how it pans out, but the very elite teams will have a threat that demands respect at RB IMO.

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The NFL is changing to more passing. The RBBC is the norm for most teams, but for those that have RB guns (Ravens/Houston) it demands respect. When you have to respect the run, it makes the opposing D question what they're going to do. Elite RB's like Rice make the difference, which is why I like Houston's and the Ravens passing game this year. Green Bay is weak at RB and become more predictable... same for Atlanta, so being a pass-first offense becomes easier to plan. Let time give some film for this year and see how it pans out, but the very elite teams will have a threat that demands respect at RB IMO.

 

Edited by Thews40
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I can't tell you how many times I argued that Bill Parcels used to be a good coach in the NFL BEFORE he arrived in Dallas. Mostly I made this argument because I believe Parcells was never able to make the transition from the days when football was smash mouth - where you could win championships by running the ball and relying on your defense to stop the run. I never argued that Bill wasn't a hall of fame coach ... in his day ... but that wasn't the coach we had in Dallas. I also felt like Bill lacked the ability to make in-game/half time adjustments ... once he made his game plan he stuck to it come hell or high water.

 

Having said all that ... what Bill DID bring to Dallas was his skills as a GM with a top notch ability to evaluate collegiate talent and those players that would be able successfully transition from the college level to the NFL level.

 

I pretty agree with the sentiments of most that have already posted here ... NFL fans like the pass, passing plays are more "exciting" and leads to higher ratings and as such they continue to tailor the rules to favor/protect the passing game.

 

There will always be a running game because you some semblance of a running game to open up the passing game ... and as Dallas proved last year - it is also beneficial when you have the ability to run the clock down with a lead.

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When I think of Bill Parcells in Dallas, I think how they passed over Steven Jackson so they could drop back and snag Julius Jones.

 

My thoughts exactly, despite providing us with a solid foundation on defense, the Jackson move is one move that haunts us today. I often wonder what could have been had we of drafted Jackson instead of Jones. The vision of having a workhorse like Jackson in Dallas is just so brutal.

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The NFL is changing to more passing. The RBBC is the norm for most teams, but for those that have RB guns (Ravens/Houston) it demands respect. When you have to respect the run, it makes the opposing D what they're going to do. Elite RB's like Rice make the difference, which is why I like Houston's passing game this year. Green Bay is weak at RB and become more predictable... same for Atlanta, so being a pass-first offense becomes easier to plan. Let time give some film for this year and see how it pans out, but the very elite teams will have a threat that demands respect at RB IMO.

 

This is a good point of why the running game will not completely go away and can be a focal point of offenses when you have a total stud. Also, of course teams will always have an interest in offensive balance to keep defenses honest.

 

But IMO, this requires more than ever for you to have a strong defense to be able to run-first, and even those teams are having a tough time keeping up when they make it to the playoffs. Last year the Texans found their way out early without Schaub, and the Ravens, Niners, Broncos all won a game before coming up short (and in the Bronco's case exposed) against high-scoring offenses. All of them have worked on shoring up their passing game woes a big focus of the offseason, most notably the Niners and Broncos.

 

Of course there are exceptions to this rule, but you see this even more in the case of teams like the Falcons, who've made it to the playoffs with a run-first and ball control offense, but without a top defense. They've found it to be futile in the playoffs and against the Saints. You can limit all of their possessions you want, but if you're not scoring, then you're only going to hold them back for so long, before they start lighting up the scoreboard. So I don't care that much if they're more predictable now, if they can score at will much more easily.

 

Also, look at the 2 teams who did make it to the Superbowl. Of course the Giants also had a strong D-line to get them there, but it can be easily argued that both teams were there because of their ~5,000 yard QBs. I just don't know if you can win consistently in the playoffs anymore without a QB you fully trust.

Edited by delusions of grandeur
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I think another "trend", the no-huddle offense, has and will have a huge impact on the game. Manning ran it to perfection in Denver last week, as did Flacco. As more OC's install this into their game plan, defenses will have to adjust their personnel and rosters to accomodate.

 

Of course, to run it effectively, you need a smart and experienced QB, which many teams lack. He also needs to be an accurate passer, use the run to offset the pass, be able to adjust the play depending on his defensive "read", and most importantly, you gotta trust him (per delusions ^^^).

 

I think the no-huddle offense, coupled with the right QB/WR/TE combination, is the next "phase" of the game. We've already seen it incorporated into many game plans, and I think that will increase leadue-wide over the next couple of years.

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The run game is just as important as the passing game honestly. With out the run game, you can't really pass it that well. Look at what happened to Chicago this Thursday. Forte couldn't move the ball at all and they never set up ant screens to stop the pressure and in result Cutler was sacked so much and had constant pressure that the passing game was non existent.

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