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Antonio Gates


injendsm
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After his dismal start to the 2012 season, is Gates droppable? He has just 10 catches for 124 yards, 18 targets and 0 TDs through 3 games (didn't play week 2). I only watched a little bit of the week 1 MNF game between the Chargers and Raiders but it doesn't seem like Gates is as big a part of the offense as some thought he might be with VJax's departure. He barely seems worth a spot as a bye week filler and I'm strongly considering dropping him in the two leagues I own him in. What do you guys think about his outlook for the rest of the season?

Edited by injendsm
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I've got him as well in two leagues, but was fortunate to also pick up Bennett and Pita in those leagues (except for this week :angry:), but I'm going to wait until Gates has 1 or 2 good weeks and trade him as fast as humanly possible!

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In my "work" league, we (I "share" the team with my department... 2-3 interested guys) got offered Finely for Gates straight up. We seriously considered it, but already have Jennings and didn't want to put too many eggs in one basket, even if that basket WAS the high-powered Packer offense.

 

Still tempted to accept.

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Antonio Gates' worst 4 games from his most recent "stud" season, 2009:

 

1-12-1

3-41-0

3-49-0

 

Granted, those 3 games were not in a row, but still... bad games happen in even the best seasons. He also had 4-33-1 and 4-44-1 games in that same 2009 season where his final stats were 79-1157-8.

 

Now, his current stats put him on pace for 50-570 but I'm going to assume he will have a handful of good games too. So while I agree that his slow start is troubling, I wouldn't bail on him by any means. I would, however, temper your pre-season expectations (mine were in the 80-900 range). I'm going to say a safe EOY projection will be 60-750-6. Not chopped liver but certainly worse than his ADP.

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In my "work" league, we (I "share" the team with my department... 2-3 interested guys) got offered Finely for Gates straight up. We seriously considered it, but already have Jennings and didn't want to put too many eggs in one basket, even if that basket WAS the high-powered Packer offense.

 

Still tempted to accept.

 

I don't like Finley at all. I was really high on him a few years back but he's done NOTHING in recent years to back up his early stale hype. I don't think Rodgers trusts him and I don't blame him. Not only that, but his perceived elite metrics aren't actually elite. I've just come to the realization that Finley is more hype than actual talent. His ceiling is Gates' floor, imo.

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even the best eventually succumb to the grind of the game. I think all the wear and tear has finally broken down Gates and he just doesn't have the same effort to give anymore.

 

 

That's what worries me about his recent string of forgettable outings. Hopefully he has a good one soon so I can trade him for a good WR.

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I wouldn't drop him, but looking at your team in your sig, it might not be a bad idea if there are other good players available. It isn't like your other TE are terrible. But I still think he'll turn around and is worth a roster spot in most leagues.

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I think we are overreacting just a little here. I agree he is not a super stud anymore, and he has lost a step, but let's slow down a little. After the top 3 or 4 TE's he is in the conversation IMO. Maybe in the 6-8 range still. Good breakdown on Gates so far:

 

Week 1: Gates racked up only four points at Oakland, in part because of a dropped pass in the end zone and in part because of a rib injury he suffered in the second half of that game.

 

 

 

Week 2: That rib injury put Gates on the inactive list for Week 2, accounting for his zero point total in that contest.

 

 

 

Week 3: He posted only two points on seven targets against Atlanta in a game in which the entire Chargers offense struggled against a tough Falcons defense.

 

 

 

Week 4: Gates netted five points in the first half as San Diego was building a 27-6 halftime lead against Kansas City. That scoring margin led Philip Rivers to attempt only five passes in the entire second half, and Gates not surprisingly didn't add to his fantasy point total in those last two quarters.

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I think we are overreacting just a little here. I agree he is not a super stud anymore, and he has lost a step, but let's slow down a little. After the top 3 or 4 TE's he is in the conversation IMO. Maybe in the 6-8 range still. Good breakdown on Gates so far:

 

Week 1: Gates racked up only four points at Oakland, in part because of a dropped pass in the end zone and in part because of a rib injury he suffered in the second half of that game.

 

 

 

Week 2: That rib injury put Gates on the inactive list for Week 2, accounting for his zero point total in that contest.

 

 

 

Week 3: He posted only two points on seven targets against Atlanta in a game in which the entire Chargers offense struggled against a tough Falcons defense.

 

 

 

Week 4: Gates netted five points in the first half as San Diego was building a 27-6 halftime lead against Kansas City. That scoring margin led Philip Rivers to attempt only five passes in the entire second half, and Gates not surprisingly didn't add to his fantasy point total in those last two quarters.

Kudos for the solid analysis, but where is the information on why Gates' output is suddenly just going to skyrocket back to his value of old? Wouldn't the smart money be on these four games being the new normal? Even his one game missed due to injury... no need to remove that from the bigger picture since Gates hasn't exactly been the model for health as of late.

 

I own Gates in a dinky work league, and as much as I'd love to hold on to him and hope he turns things around, I'm open to dealing him and crossing my fingers that a trade for him and Marshall for Finley and White.

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Not that this is an exact comparison, but would anyone have considered dropping Jason Witten after his first three weeks? My point is that Gates is highly unlikely to keep putting up pedestrian numbers all year. Is Witten back to being a stud? Who knows... but at least there are signs of life. I wouldn't be surprised if Gates came alive soon. He is a red zone monster and that will start to show.

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I won't be surprised if Gates becomes more productive. But he's also 32 and missed a chunk of games over the last 2 years. Even the great ones experience a sudden decline of production at a certain point. A couple of the more optimistic prognosticators in this thread seem to be ignoring that.

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I simply think he is what he is at this point. Not a top stud anymore, but also not a waste/guy you cut. I think he's in that top 8 or so range at TE. And I also believe there are legit reasons behind some of his play this season.

 

SD threw 23 passes this past Sunday at KC. 5 in the 2nd half. Do we hold that against Gates/Floyd that the game was a blowout and SD didn't pass?

 

He left early in game 1. He missed game 2. So the focus is game 3 against Atlanta, and yes that was a bad game. The SD O was a joke in that game, and Gates played poorly.

 

So no doubt he is no longer vintage Gates, or even close to it, but to act like he's done/washed up/cut him I think is too far. We'll see what happens.

Edited by giantsfan
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Considering where he was projected and where he was drafted he is a wash. I drafted him high based on his ranking as the no.3 TE. I picked up Pitta in one league and Bennett in another and am getting much more productivity out of WW pick ups than the projected no.3 TE!

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Agreed with the consensus above: Gates has some value, but he is no longer a top-3 TE by any stretch. Looking at your roster, I can see how Gates would would be useful as a spot starter, especially weeks 8-10 (CLE, KC, and TB). You will probably get nothing for him if you try to trade, so holding and waiting could pay a few dividends.

 

BTW - do you start 2 QBs in that league? I ask because you have 4 QBs on the roster, and personally I would use that roster space for an extra RB.

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I picked up Dennis Pitta in my 10 team standard league as a backup. If Gates can't score some decent points on the Saints then he may be taking a trip to dumpsville. I doubt I could get anything worthwhile for him in a 10 team league.

Edited by metalmat
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Agreed with the consensus above: Gates has some value, but he is no longer a top-3 TE by any stretch. Looking at your roster, I can see how Gates would would be useful as a spot starter, especially weeks 8-10 (CLE, KC, and TB). You will probably get nothing for him if you try to trade, so holding and waiting could pay a few dividends.

 

BTW - do you start 2 QBs in that league? I ask because you have 4 QBs on the roster, and personally I would use that roster space for an extra RB.

 

 

I believe he does start 2 QB (if referring to the OP) his sig shows this

QB(2)-Stafford, Ryan, Palmer, Ponder

which usually means 2 QB start

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Agreed with the consensus above: Gates has some value, but he is no longer a top-3 TE by any stretch. Looking at your roster, I can see how Gates would would be useful as a spot starter, especially weeks 8-10 (CLE, KC, and TB). You will probably get nothing for him if you try to trade, so holding and waiting could pay a few dividends.

 

BTW - do you start 2 QBs in that league? I ask because you have 4 QBs on the roster, and personally I would use that roster space for an extra RB.

 

 

Yep, we start 2 QBs. I'm currently trying to trade Sproles (one game at 30, the rest have been 22 or below which isn't even half of what Lynch gets me each week) and Gates for Doug Martin. Gates hasn't started for me since week 1 and I've got Bennett and Pitta so, even if he can turn things around somewhat, I don't think I'll lose much sleep over the loss of him.

Edited by injendsm
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