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Trade opinion: not for advice but to settle a bet


BS Miscreant
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Two questions:

 

Is this a fair trade?

 

Who is getting the better end of the deal?

 

- PPR, Flex, 6 pts for all TDs w/ fairly standard scoring otherwise -

 

In addition to traded players:

Team A has Benson, Gore, Fitz, Torrey Smith, Stevie Johnson.

Team B has Sproles, D. Murray, Ryan Willams, Amendola, Andre Roberts

 

Team A gives

 

Andy Dalton

Jamaal Charles

Calvin Johnson

 

 

Team B gives

 

Peyton Manning

Fred Jackson

Andre Johnson

 

 

Got some cash on the line here so well thought out opinions are greatly appreciated. Thanks.

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I'd prefer to receive the side that gets Dalton, Charles, and Megatron.

 

Dalton has looked good and has one of the best receivers in the league right now in Green. Charles is a big part of the Chiefs offense especially since Hillis hasn't vultured much. Finally, Megatron should pick up production as long as he is healthy. After this bye week hopefully that offense will look like the unit it did last year, also Stafford should be healthy also.

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If the trade was made recently as opposed to the beginning of the season, I dont think it is even close. I'd rather have Manning, but he is not much better than Dalton. Jamaal and Fred are not even close, especially with the timeshare Fred is in now. Calvin is also way better than Andre, no way that is a wash.

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If the trade was made recently as opposed to the beginning of the season, I dont think it is even close.

 

To me, this statement just highlights why you can't possibly know who's getting the better end until it all shakes out. Beginning of the season, maybe you say that the "big" upgrade from Dalton to Manning offsets the difference between the other players. Maybe one can still make that argument if they're not sold on Dalton playing as well as he has of late.

 

Who knows if in a few weeks the heavy workload wears Charles down, or if Spiller can't handle a sizeable workload and Jackson takes over. What if the Andre/Schaub of old return and the Calvin/Stafford connection suffers all year?

 

Your talking about 6 very talented players here, some who are struggling now, and some who might struggle later as others rebound.

 

That said, I like B's side better in this trade, but what does consensus mean when every year the consensus gets it wrong quite a bit.

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To me, this statement just highlights why you can't possibly know who's getting the better end until it all shakes out. Beginning of the season, maybe you say that the "big" upgrade from Dalton to Manning offsets the difference between the other players. Maybe one can still make that argument if they're not sold on Dalton playing as well as he has of late.

 

Who knows if in a few weeks the heavy workload wears Charles down, or if Spiller can't handle a sizeable workload and Jackson takes over. What if the Andre/Schaub of old return and the Calvin/Stafford connection suffers all year?

 

Your talking about 6 very talented players here, some who are struggling now, and some who might struggle later as others rebound.

 

That said, I like B's side better in this trade, but what does consensus mean when every year the consensus gets it wrong quite a bit.

 

 

I agree with you, but the trade is being made now, you cant predict that Spiller is going to go down, Charles is going to wear down,or Texans are going to all of a sudden abandon the run and start passing, etc.

 

4 games into the season, you have a better idea of how things are going to shake out and there is no reason to think Andre will be better than Calvin or Fred will be better than Charles in their current situations.

 

While everything you said is right, you wont find one person that says they think team A got the better end of this, and if they do, it is just to prove me wrong. I assume an opinion like mine was one side of this bet that the post references.

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As of right this second, I would rather be Team B receiving Dalton, Charles and Calvin. I believe the trade is fair.

 

As others have mentioned, this trade could look VERY different 8 weeks from now. A lot of those players have super-high variance on their weekly performance, so who the hell knows where it'll settle out. Three of those players (Manning, Jackson, Charles) could easily crap out from injury/fatigue as well.

 

Hard to accurately gauge who's winning. If you made me bet on it, I'd put money that it's closest to a wash.

 

ETA: I think JCharles over FJackson is driving most people's perception, including mine, that Team B wins in the trade.

Edited by stethant
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While everything you said is right, you wont find one person that says they think team A got the better end of this, and if they do, it is just to prove me wrong. I assume an opinion like mine was one side of this bet that the post references.

 

Sure I can find one person, the only person who matters: Team A

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A guy is carrying on about the imbalance of this trade but "A" says he loves Manning but was skeptical before. Based on recent showings and the future schedules of the 2 QBs he thinks Peyton is a big upgrade. He's also comfortable with the rest of his roster.

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:rofl: a thinly veiled should I make this trade post

 

Fairness is all in the mind of the beholder ... as is determining which end of the deal is the best

 

Well, beholder, what is in your mind?

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you wont find one person that says they think team A got the better end of this, and if they do, it is just to prove me wrong. I assume an opinion like mine was one side of this bet that the post references.

 

This intitially prompted part of the bet but I couldn't get him to bite on at least one person would say Team A. Looks like it's good he wouldn't take it.

 

 

So what is the bet, and how are the comments on your question helping to settle the bet? Is it just about whether it is fair, or who got the better deal?

 

He also said that if I asked 10+ unbiased people who actually play fantasy football that they would overwhelmingly say this trade was grossly lopsided and unfair. I told him for $50 bucks I'd give him 50/50.

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