muck Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 (edited) In past years, I wouldn't start posting this until after week five or six, but I got a little antsy and dusted it off (and hopefully improved it a bit). I don't expect to do too well the next week or two, but I may surprise myself. Predictions / rankings / etc. are as of the end of week four (i.e., before last nights game, which we obviously got wrong). ******************************************** Observations --- * Of the three undefeated teams, ARI was modeled as being the weakest (no surprise). * Of the seven 3-1 teams, SF is the strongest and CIN is the weakest. * Of the ten 2-2 teams, NE is the strongest and BUF is the weakest. * Of the ten one-win teams, MIA is the strongest and OAK is the weakest. * Of the two winless squads, CLE is stronger than NO. Predicted Playoffs are: AFC --- Houston, Baltimore, New England, San Diego, Denver, Cincinnati NFC --- Atlanta, Arizona, San Francisco, Chicago, Philly, Minnesota ******************************************** Weekly Predictions: ARI @ STL ... 46.7pts ... ARI by 4.3pts ATL @ WAS ... 47.6pts ... ATL by 4.9pts BAL @ KC ... 50.0pts ... BAL by 7.8pts BUF @ SF ... 48.7pts ... SF by 7.9pts SEA @ CAR ... 43.8pts ... SEA by 1.5pts CHI @ JAC ... 45.9pts ... CHI by 4.2pts MIA @ CIN ... 45.7pts ... CIN by 3.7pts CLE @ NYG ... 46.7pts ... NYG by 8.1pts DEN @ NE ... 43.1pts ... NE by 1.4pts GB @ IND ... 42.4pts ... GB by 1.5pts TEN @ MIN ... 47.2pts ... MIN by 10.5pts SD @ NO ... 52.6pts ... SD by 7.2pts PHI @ PIT ... 47.6pts ... PHI by 0.7pts HOU @ NYJ ... 49.4pts ... HOU by 8.0pts Edited October 8, 2012 by muck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 5, 2012 Author Share Posted October 5, 2012 For the newer members, my model incorporates offensive and defensive statistics, special teams (which is new to the model vs. prior years), kicking statistics (some of which is new) and "self control" statistics (penalties, turnover margins, etc. ... some of which is new), historic EOS and forward looking EOS to make the weekly predictions and the year-end standings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 DEN @ NE ... 43.1pts ... NE by 1.4pts IND @ GB ... 42.4pts ... GB by 1.5pts Loving me some home teams in these games if I could get these numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brendan Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Awesome information thanks for posting it and look forward to future posts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 For the record, GB is playing at IND, not the other way around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 5, 2012 Author Share Posted October 5, 2012 For the record, GB is playing at IND, not the other way around. I have it right in the model; just didn't type it out correctly here. Thanks for the catch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ditkaless Wonders Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Loving me some home teams in these games if I could get these numbers. Isn't G.B. on the road @ Indy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ditkaless Wonders Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 In past years, I wouldn't start posting this until after week five or six, but I got a little antsy and dusted it off (and hopefully improved it a bit). I don't expect to do too well the next week or two, but I may surprise myself. Predictions / rankings / etc. are as of the end of week four (i.e., before last nights game, which we obviously got wrong). ******************************************** Observations --- * Of the three undefeated teams, ARI was modeled as being the weakest (no surprise). * Of the seven 3-1 teams, SF is the strongest and CIN is the weakest. * Of the ten 2-2 teams, NE is the strongest and BUF is the weakest. * Of the ten one-win teams, MIA is the strongest and OAK is the weakest. * Of the two winless squads, CLE is stronger than NO. Predicted Playoffs are: AFC --- Houston, Baltimore, New England, San Diego, Denver, Cincinnati NFC --- Atlanta, Arizona, San Francisco, Chicago, Philly, Minnesota ******************************************** Weekly Predictions: ARI @ STL ... 46.7pts ... ARI by 4.3pts Rams and Under WAS @ ATL ... 47.6pts ... ATL by 10.9pts Falcons and under, both just barely BAL @ KC ... 50.0pts ... BAL by 7.8pts Ravens and Under BUF @ SF ... 48.7pts ... SF by 7.9pts 49ers and Under SEA @ CAR ... 43.8pts ... SEA by 1.5pts Panthers and Under CHI @ JAC ... 45.9pts ... CHI by 4.2pts Chicago MIA @ CIN ... 45.7pts ... CIN by 3.7pts Bengals CLE @ NYG ... 46.7pts ... NYG by 8.1pts Giants DEN @ NE ... 43.1pts ... NE by 1.4pts Patriots and Over GB @ IND ... 42.4pts ... GB by 1.5pts Packers and Over TEN @ MIN ... 47.2pts ... MIN by 10.5pts Titans and Under SD @ NO ... 52.6pts ... SD by 7.2pts Saints and Over PHI @ PIT ... 47.6pts ... PHI by 0.7pts Steelers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SecondString Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 For the record, GB is playing at IND, not the other way around. Same with Atlanta/Washington Nice feature, thanks for sharing..curious, how is the historical accuracy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 5, 2012 Author Share Posted October 5, 2012 (edited) Same with Atlanta/Washington Whoops. I'll edit that one... ATL @ WAS ... 47.6pts ... ATL by 4.9pts Nice feature, thanks for sharing..curious, how is the historical accuracy? In a typical week in prior years, I think I was getting around 60% right, prognosticating on all games each week. I don't think I have had a week worse than 30% or a week better than about 90%; most were above 50% and, again, I think I was averaging being right around 60% / week. Edited October 5, 2012 by muck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 5, 2012 Author Share Posted October 5, 2012 (edited) Isn't G.B. on the road @ Indy? Whoops! GB @ IND ... 42.4pts ... GB by 1.5pts Edited October 8, 2012 by muck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Isn't G.B. on the road @ Indy? And I'd still be loving me some green and gold at that number Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ditkaless Wonders Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 And I'd still be loving me some green and gold at that number 38 to 16 G.B. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 7, 2012 Author Share Posted October 7, 2012 Apparently, I inadvertently left off the prediction for the NYJ/HOU game; I'll have to update this post on Monday when I get to the office (which is where the spreadsheet is). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ditkaless Wonders Posted October 7, 2012 Share Posted October 7, 2012 Apparently, I inadvertently left off the prediction for the NYJ/HOU game; I'll have to update this post on Monday when I get to the office (which is where the spreadsheet is). I figured you had it as such a slaughter you just took it off of the board. 38 to 7. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted October 7, 2012 Share Posted October 7, 2012 And I'd still be loving me some green and gold at that number OUCH! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 8, 2012 Author Share Posted October 8, 2012 Apparently, I inadvertently left off the prediction for the NYJ/HOU game; I'll have to update this post on Monday when I get to the office (which is where the spreadsheet is). HOU @ NYJ ... 49.4pts ... HOU by 8.0pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 Whoops. I'll edit that one... ATL @ WAS ... 47.6pts ... ATL by 4.9pts In a typical week in prior years, I think I was getting around 60% right, prognosticating on all games each week. I don't think I have had a week worse than 30% or a week better than about 90%; most were above 50% and, again, I think I was averaging being right around 60% / week. Against the spread? I mean, I realize that doesn't actually equate because your spread is different and may be hard to apply to actually betting against the Vegas spread. Just curious. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 8, 2012 Author Share Posted October 8, 2012 (edited) 8-5 outright heading into MNF ... I have no idea how I did vs. Vegas (yet) ... *************** ARI @ STL ... 46.7pts ... ARI by 4.3pts --- STL won 17-3 ATL @ WAS ... 47.6pts ... ATL by 4.9pts --- ATL won 24-27 BAL @ KC ... 50.0pts ... BAL by 7.8pts --- BAL won 9-6 BUF @ SF ... 48.7pts ... SF by 7.9pts --- SF won 45-3 SEA @ CAR ... 43.8pts ... SEA by 1.5pts --- SEA won 16-12 CHI @ JAC ... 45.9pts ... CHI by 4.2pts --- CHI won 41-3 MIA @ CIN ... 45.7pts ... CIN by 3.7pts --- MIA won 17-13 CLE @ NYG ... 46.7pts ... NYG by 8.1pts --- NYG won 41-27 DEN @ NE ... 43.1pts ... NE by 1.4pts --- NE won 31-21 GB @ IND ... 42.4pts ... GB by 1.5pts --- IND won 30-27 TEN @ MIN ... 47.2pts ... MIN by 10.5pts --- MIN won 30-7 SD @ NO ... 52.6pts ... SD by 7.2pts --- NO won 31-24 PHI @ PIT ... 47.6pts ... PHI by 0.7pts --- PIT won 16-14 HOU @ NYJ ... 49.4pts ... HOU by 8.0pts Edited October 8, 2012 by muck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 8, 2012 Author Share Posted October 8, 2012 Against the spread? I mean, I realize that doesn't actually equate because your spread is different and may be hard to apply to actually betting against the Vegas spread. Just curious. I'd love for someone to analyze this and report back. Basically, is there 'information' in my predictions that would enable someone to profitably bet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 I'd love for someone to analyze this and report back. Basically, is there 'information' in my predictions that would enable someone to profitably bet? That would be tough to do. Say the actual line is ATL -6 over TB. You say ATL is going to win by 3. Are you saying "at least" 3? Or are you saying "no more than 3". Because that has some bearing on what side of the actual Vegas line you take and whether or not you, specifically, get to call that a win. After all, once you bring points into, the guy who sets the spread can't win, only those who correctly choose which side of that line the game is going to fall on. I was wondering because, given the vig, someone needs to do at least around 60% (actually a bit less) against the Vegas spread to make money. What would be an interesting comparison would be to do the following. 1) Compare how often your predicted winner wins regardless of by how much compared to the Vegas favorite. However, the only way for either to distinguish themselves is on games where you don't have the same favorite. Which brings us to 2... 2) Somehow weight the comparison by getting or losing partial credit based on which spread was bigger for missed picks on favorites. In other words, Vegas has ATL by 8, you have them by 3. If they lose, Vegas gets hit harder than you do because you were less wrong. Something like that, but I have no idea how you'd fairly quantify that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 8, 2012 Author Share Posted October 8, 2012 I was thinking the best way to go would be (for example): if Vegas had TEAM A favored by 4pts vs TEAM B ... and I had TEAM A favored by 6.5pts vs TEAM B ... then, bet TEAM A giving the points ... however ... if I had TEAM B favored by fewer than 4pts (or actually had TEAM B favored at all), then you'd bet take the underdog (TEAM B and the points). Anyone care to take a stab at putting together some analysis the rest of the season? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinkris Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 I was thinking the best way to go would be (for example): if Vegas had TEAM A favored by 4pts vs TEAM B ... and I had TEAM A favored by 6.5pts vs TEAM B ... then, bet TEAM A giving the points ... however ... if I had TEAM B favored by fewer than 4pts (or actually had TEAM B favored at all), then you'd bet take the underdog (TEAM B and the points). Anyone care to take a stab at putting together some analysis the rest of the season? As posted in the other thread ill do this for you based on these assumptions. For example, you said gb by 1.5, and te actual spread was -7 for gb so while you picked the game winner wrong you beat the spread (because you would of chose ind). Ill get to this tomorrow as its a holiday here in canada today;) thanksgiving!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 8, 2012 Author Share Posted October 8, 2012 Thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinkris Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Well based on the spreads and over/unders I used you went, 9-5 straight up, 7-7 agaisnt the spread, and 6-8 with the over/under. There were two games that your predicted win by was very close to the spread I used. The giants by 8.1, when the spread was giants by 8. The bengals by 3.7, when the spread was 3.5. One was a lose, and one was a win but depending on when you bet/spread you had they both could easily change. If someone else wants to do it also to see what they come up with it would be a good way to check. ARI @ STL ... 46.7pts ... ARI by 4.3pts --- STL won 17-3 ATL @ WAS ... 47.6pts ... ATL by 4.9pts --- ATL won 24-27 BAL @ KC ... 50.0pts ... BAL by 7.8pts --- BAL won 9-6 BUF @ SF ... 48.7pts ... SF by 7.9pts --- SF won 45-3 SEA @ CAR ... 43.8pts ... SEA by 1.5pts --- SEA won 16-12 CHI @ JAC ... 45.9pts ... CHI by 4.2pts --- CHI won 41-3 MIA @ CIN ... 45.7pts ... CIN by 3.7pts --- MIA won 17-13 CLE @ NYG ... 46.7pts ... NYG by 8.1pts --- NYG won 41-27 DEN @ NE ... 43.1pts ... NE by 1.4pts --- NE won 31-21 GB @ IND ... 42.4pts ... GB by 1.5pts --- IND won 30-27 TEN @ MIN ... 47.2pts ... MIN by 10.5pts --- MIN won 30-7 SD @ NO ... 52.6pts ... SD by 7.2pts --- NO won 31-24 PHI @ PIT ... 47.6pts ... PHI by 0.7pts --- PIT won 16-14 HOU @ NYJ ... 49.4pts ... HOU by 8.0pts --- HOU won 23-17 Highlighted in bold are the spreads and o/u that were right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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