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Mucks Power Rankings -- Week 5


muck
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In past years, I wouldn't start posting this until after week five or six, but I got a little antsy and dusted it off (and hopefully improved it a bit). I don't expect to do too well the next week or two, but I may surprise myself.

 

Predictions / rankings / etc. are as of the end of week four (i.e., before last nights game, which we obviously got wrong).

 

********************************************

 

Observations ---

 

* Of the three undefeated teams, ARI was modeled as being the weakest (no surprise).

* Of the seven 3-1 teams, SF is the strongest and CIN is the weakest.

* Of the ten 2-2 teams, NE is the strongest and BUF is the weakest.

* Of the ten one-win teams, MIA is the strongest and OAK is the weakest.

* Of the two winless squads, CLE is stronger than NO.

 

 

Predicted Playoffs are:

AFC --- Houston, Baltimore, New England, San Diego, Denver, Cincinnati

NFC --- Atlanta, Arizona, San Francisco, Chicago, Philly, Minnesota

 

 

 

********************************************

 

Weekly Predictions:

 

ARI @ STL ... 46.7pts ... ARI by 4.3pts

ATL @ WAS ... 47.6pts ... ATL by 4.9pts

BAL @ KC ... 50.0pts ... BAL by 7.8pts

BUF @ SF ... 48.7pts ... SF by 7.9pts

SEA @ CAR ... 43.8pts ... SEA by 1.5pts

CHI @ JAC ... 45.9pts ... CHI by 4.2pts

MIA @ CIN ... 45.7pts ... CIN by 3.7pts

CLE @ NYG ... 46.7pts ... NYG by 8.1pts

DEN @ NE ... 43.1pts ... NE by 1.4pts

GB @ IND ... 42.4pts ... GB by 1.5pts

TEN @ MIN ... 47.2pts ... MIN by 10.5pts

SD @ NO ... 52.6pts ... SD by 7.2pts

PHI @ PIT ... 47.6pts ... PHI by 0.7pts

HOU @ NYJ ... 49.4pts ... HOU by 8.0pts

Edited by muck
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For the newer members, my model incorporates offensive and defensive statistics, special teams (which is new to the model vs. prior years), kicking statistics (some of which is new) and "self control" statistics (penalties, turnover margins, etc. ... some of which is new), historic EOS and forward looking EOS to make the weekly predictions and the year-end standings.

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In past years, I wouldn't start posting this until after week five or six, but I got a little antsy and dusted it off (and hopefully improved it a bit). I don't expect to do too well the next week or two, but I may surprise myself.

 

Predictions / rankings / etc. are as of the end of week four (i.e., before last nights game, which we obviously got wrong).

 

********************************************

 

Observations ---

 

* Of the three undefeated teams, ARI was modeled as being the weakest (no surprise).

* Of the seven 3-1 teams, SF is the strongest and CIN is the weakest.

* Of the ten 2-2 teams, NE is the strongest and BUF is the weakest.

* Of the ten one-win teams, MIA is the strongest and OAK is the weakest.

* Of the two winless squads, CLE is stronger than NO.

 

 

Predicted Playoffs are:

AFC --- Houston, Baltimore, New England, San Diego, Denver, Cincinnati

NFC --- Atlanta, Arizona, San Francisco, Chicago, Philly, Minnesota

 

 

 

********************************************

 

Weekly Predictions:

 

ARI @ STL ... 46.7pts ... ARI by 4.3pts Rams and Under

WAS @ ATL ... 47.6pts ... ATL by 10.9pts Falcons and under, both just barely

BAL @ KC ... 50.0pts ... BAL by 7.8pts Ravens and Under

BUF @ SF ... 48.7pts ... SF by 7.9pts 49ers and Under

SEA @ CAR ... 43.8pts ... SEA by 1.5pts Panthers and Under

CHI @ JAC ... 45.9pts ... CHI by 4.2pts Chicago

MIA @ CIN ... 45.7pts ... CIN by 3.7pts Bengals

CLE @ NYG ... 46.7pts ... NYG by 8.1pts Giants

DEN @ NE ... 43.1pts ... NE by 1.4pts Patriots and Over

GB @ IND ... 42.4pts ... GB by 1.5pts Packers and Over

TEN @ MIN ... 47.2pts ... MIN by 10.5pts Titans and Under

SD @ NO ... 52.6pts ... SD by 7.2pts Saints and Over

PHI @ PIT ... 47.6pts ... PHI by 0.7pts Steelers

 

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Same with Atlanta/Washington

 

Whoops. I'll edit that one...

 

ATL @ WAS ... 47.6pts ... ATL by 4.9pts

 

Nice feature, thanks for sharing..curious, how is the historical accuracy?

 

 

In a typical week in prior years, I think I was getting around 60% right, prognosticating on all games each week. I don't think I have had a week worse than 30% or a week better than about 90%; most were above 50% and, again, I think I was averaging being right around 60% / week.

Edited by muck
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Apparently, I inadvertently left off the prediction for the NYJ/HOU game; I'll have to update this post on Monday when I get to the office (which is where the spreadsheet is).

 

 

HOU @ NYJ ... 49.4pts ... HOU by 8.0pts

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Whoops. I'll edit that one...

 

ATL @ WAS ... 47.6pts ... ATL by 4.9pts

 

 

 

In a typical week in prior years, I think I was getting around 60% right, prognosticating on all games each week. I don't think I have had a week worse than 30% or a week better than about 90%; most were above 50% and, again, I think I was averaging being right around 60% / week.

 

Against the spread? I mean, I realize that doesn't actually equate because your spread is different and may be hard to apply to actually betting against the Vegas spread.

 

Just curious.

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8-5 outright heading into MNF ... I have no idea how I did vs. Vegas (yet) ...

 

***************

 

ARI @ STL ... 46.7pts ... ARI by 4.3pts --- STL won 17-3

ATL @ WAS ... 47.6pts ... ATL by 4.9pts --- ATL won 24-27

BAL @ KC ... 50.0pts ... BAL by 7.8pts --- BAL won 9-6

BUF @ SF ... 48.7pts ... SF by 7.9pts --- SF won 45-3

SEA @ CAR ... 43.8pts ... SEA by 1.5pts --- SEA won 16-12

CHI @ JAC ... 45.9pts ... CHI by 4.2pts --- CHI won 41-3

MIA @ CIN ... 45.7pts ... CIN by 3.7pts --- MIA won 17-13

CLE @ NYG ... 46.7pts ... NYG by 8.1pts --- NYG won 41-27

DEN @ NE ... 43.1pts ... NE by 1.4pts --- NE won 31-21

GB @ IND ... 42.4pts ... GB by 1.5pts --- IND won 30-27

TEN @ MIN ... 47.2pts ... MIN by 10.5pts --- MIN won 30-7

SD @ NO ... 52.6pts ... SD by 7.2pts --- NO won 31-24

PHI @ PIT ... 47.6pts ... PHI by 0.7pts --- PIT won 16-14

 

HOU @ NYJ ... 49.4pts ... HOU by 8.0pts

Edited by muck
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Against the spread? I mean, I realize that doesn't actually equate because your spread is different and may be hard to apply to actually betting against the Vegas spread.

 

Just curious.

 

 

I'd love for someone to analyze this and report back.

 

Basically, is there 'information' in my predictions that would enable someone to profitably bet?

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I'd love for someone to analyze this and report back.

 

Basically, is there 'information' in my predictions that would enable someone to profitably bet?

 

That would be tough to do. Say the actual line is ATL -6 over TB. You say ATL is going to win by 3. Are you saying "at least" 3? Or are you saying "no more than 3". Because that has some bearing on what side of the actual Vegas line you take and whether or not you, specifically, get to call that a win.

 

After all, once you bring points into, the guy who sets the spread can't win, only those who correctly choose which side of that line the game is going to fall on.

 

I was wondering because, given the vig, someone needs to do at least around 60% (actually a bit less) against the Vegas spread to make money.

 

What would be an interesting comparison would be to do the following.

1) Compare how often your predicted winner wins regardless of by how much compared to the Vegas favorite. However, the only way for either to distinguish themselves is on games where you don't have the same favorite. Which brings us to 2...

 

2) Somehow weight the comparison by getting or losing partial credit based on which spread was bigger for missed picks on favorites. In other words, Vegas has ATL by 8, you have them by 3. If they lose, Vegas gets hit harder than you do because you were less wrong. Something like that, but I have no idea how you'd fairly quantify that.

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I was thinking the best way to go would be (for example):

 

if Vegas had TEAM A favored by 4pts vs TEAM B ... and I had TEAM A favored by 6.5pts vs TEAM B ... then, bet TEAM A giving the points ... however ... if I had TEAM B favored by fewer than 4pts (or actually had TEAM B favored at all), then you'd bet take the underdog (TEAM B and the points).

 

Anyone care to take a stab at putting together some analysis the rest of the season?

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I was thinking the best way to go would be (for example):

 

if Vegas had TEAM A favored by 4pts vs TEAM B ... and I had TEAM A favored by 6.5pts vs TEAM B ... then, bet TEAM A giving the points ... however ... if I had TEAM B favored by fewer than 4pts (or actually had TEAM B favored at all), then you'd bet take the underdog (TEAM B and the points).

 

Anyone care to take a stab at putting together some analysis the rest of the season?

 

 

As posted in the other thread ill do this for you based on these assumptions.

 

For example, you said gb by 1.5, and te actual spread was -7 for gb so while you picked the game winner wrong you beat the spread (because you would of chose ind). Ill get to this tomorrow as its a holiday here in canada today;) thanksgiving!!

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Well based on the spreads and over/unders I used you went, 9-5 straight up, 7-7 agaisnt the spread, and 6-8 with the over/under.

 

There were two games that your predicted win by was very close to the spread I used.

 

The giants by 8.1, when the spread was giants by 8.

The bengals by 3.7, when the spread was 3.5.

 

One was a lose, and one was a win but depending on when you bet/spread you had they both could easily change.

 

If someone else wants to do it also to see what they come up with it would be a good way to check.

 

ARI @ STL ... 46.7pts ... ARI by 4.3pts --- STL won 17-3

ATL @ WAS ... 47.6pts ... ATL by 4.9pts --- ATL won 24-27

BAL @ KC ... 50.0pts ... BAL by 7.8pts --- BAL won 9-6

BUF @ SF ... 48.7pts ... SF by 7.9pts --- SF won 45-3

SEA @ CAR ... 43.8pts ... SEA by 1.5pts --- SEA won 16-12

CHI @ JAC ... 45.9pts ... CHI by 4.2pts --- CHI won 41-3

MIA @ CIN ... 45.7pts ... CIN by 3.7pts --- MIA won 17-13

CLE @ NYG ... 46.7pts ... NYG by 8.1pts --- NYG won 41-27

DEN @ NE ... 43.1pts ... NE by 1.4pts --- NE won 31-21

GB @ IND ... 42.4pts ... GB by 1.5pts --- IND won 30-27

TEN @ MIN ... 47.2pts ... MIN by 10.5pts --- MIN won 30-7

SD @ NO ... 52.6pts ... SD by 7.2pts --- NO won 31-24

PHI @ PIT ... 47.6pts ... PHI by 0.7pts --- PIT won 16-14

 

HOU @ NYJ ... 49.4pts ... HOU by 8.0pts --- HOU won 23-17

 

Highlighted in bold are the spreads and o/u that were right.

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