muck Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Top / Bottom 5 Passing Offenses 128.5 -- New Orleans 120.1 -- Oakland 119.9 -- Dallas 116.9 -- Detroit 114.7 -- Cleveland ... 87.2 -- Kansas City 86.6 -- Miami 85.7 -- San Francisco 83.4 -- Houston 70.3 -- Seattle Top / Bottom 5 Rushing Offenses 142.0 -- San Francisco 135.3 -- Seattle 130.1 -- Houston 128.6 -- Washington 126.2 -- New England .......... 71.0 -- Cleveland 70.6 -- Tennessee 69.7 -- Dallas 65.1 -- Oakland 63.9 -- New Orleans Top / Bottom 5 Overall Offenses (which is more than just an average of rushing / passing scores) 116.5 -- New England 116.0 -- San Francisco 113.9 -- NY Giants 110.6 -- Houston 109.3 -- Atlanta ............ 90.2 -- Dallas 88.1 -- Arizona 87.5 -- Oakland 87.4 -- Tennessee 85.0 -- Jacksonville Top / Bottom 5 Passing Defenses -- low # is good 92.2 -- Kansas City 80.5 -- NY Jets 90.1 -- Chicago 90.5 -- Houston 91.9 -- Seattle ........ 103.9 -- NY Giants 111.8 -- New England 117.3 -- San Diego 119.3 -- Tampa Bay 121.2 -- Washington Top / Bottom 5 Rushing Defenses -- low # is good 91.0 -- Miami 93.0 -- San Francisco 94.1 -- Minnesota 94.1 -- Seattle 95.4 -- New Orleans .......... 118.6 -- Tennessee 121.9 -- Buffalo 122.2 -- New Orleans 122.7 -- Jacksonville 135.4 -- NY Jets Top / Bottom 5 Overall Defenses (which is more than just an average of rushing / passing scores) -- low # is good 84.7 -- San Francisco 85.3 -- Seattle 86.2 -- Chicago 86.8 -- Houston 89.7 -- Minnesota .............. 110.3 -- Jacksonville 112.7 -- Washington 115.4 -- Tennessee 115.5 -- New Orleans 121.2 -- Buffalo Top / Bottom 5 Overall Kicking Units (kick offs, place kicking, punting) 108.8 -- Philadelphia 106.2 -- Houston 106.2 -- New Orleans 105.8 -- Jacksonville 105.2 -- Cincinnati .......... 95.5 -- Oakland 95.3 -- New England 95.2 -- Denver 93.9 -- Miami 89.8 -- Washington Top / Bottom 5 Special Teams, Penalties, Turnovers, etc. 141.7 -- Washington 135.4 -- Chicago 131.1 -- Baltimore 122.7 -- New England 118.6 -- Green Bay ............. 78.8 -- Buffalo 76.8 -- Philadelphia 63.3 -- Dallas 56.4 -- Detroit 52.3 -- Kansas City ******************************** OVERALL RANKINGS: 112.7 -- San Francisco 111.9 -- Houston 111.3 -- Chicago 107.3 -- Baltimore 107.0 -- New England .................. 91.2 -- Kansas City 91.0 -- Oakland 90.5 -- Buffalo 90.3 -- Jacksonville 87.7 -- Tennessee Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 9, 2012 Author Share Posted October 9, 2012 (edited) buf @ ari ... 42.5 ... ari -12.0 oak @ atl ... 46.8 ... atl -9.3 cin @ cle ... 46.8 ... cin -1.0 dal @ bal ... 46.2 ... bal -7.0 den @ sd ... 50.6 ... den -1.2 det @ phi ... 44.2 ... phi -4.3 gb @ hou ... 46.2 ... hou -6.7 ind @ nyj ... 43.6 ... nyj -2.4 kc @ tb ... 50.8 ... tb -4.9 stl @ mia ... 45.3 ... mia -0.9 min @ was ... 47.9 ... min -0.4 ne @ sea ... 45.3 ... sea -1.3 nyg @ sf ... 45.8 ... sf -3.5 pit @ ten ... 45.2 ... pit -1.5 Edited October 9, 2012 by muck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 9, 2012 Author Share Posted October 9, 2012 AFC Playoff teams HOU, BAL, NE, DEN, SD, MIA NFC Playoff teams SF, CHI, ATL, ARI, MIN, STL *********** Note --- Denver has had the 2nd hardest schedule so far, and from here on out, they have the easiest. Look for them to make the biggest move in the real-life standings over the rest of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 9, 2012 Author Share Posted October 9, 2012 Top 5 Teams: 128.7 -- San Francisco 128.4 -- Houston 125.2 -- Chicago 124.6 -- Atlanta 117.9 -- Arizona Bottom 5 Teams: 80.3 -- Buffalo 79.4 -- New Orleans 77.0 -- Tennessee 76.4 -- Cleveland 75.0 -- Oakland Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinkris Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 bal @ dal ... 46.2 ... bal -1.0 Dal is @ Bal this week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 9, 2012 Author Share Posted October 9, 2012 bal @ dal ... 46.2 ... bal -1.0 Dal is @ Bal this week Color me dyslexic. dal @ bal ... 46.2 ... bal -7.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 15, 2012 Author Share Posted October 15, 2012 ...heading into MNF ... buf @ ari ... 42.5 ... ari -12.0 ... BUF won 19-16 oak @ atl ... 46.8 ... atl -9.3 ... ATL won 23-20 cin @ cle ... 46.8 ... cin -1.0 ... CLE won 34-24 dal @ bal ... 46.2 ... bal -7.0 ... BAL won 31-29 den @ sd ... 50.6 ... den -1.2 det @ phi ... 44.2 ... phi -4.3 ... DET won 26-23 gb @ hou ... 46.2 ... hou -6.7 ... GB won 42-24 ind @ nyj ... 43.6 ... nyj -2.4 ... NYJ won 35-9 kc @ tb ... 50.8 ... tb -4.9 ... TB won 38-10 stl @ mia ... 45.3 ... mia -0.9 ... MIA won 17-14 min @ was ... 47.9 ... min -0.4 ... WAS won 38-26 ne @ sea ... 45.3 ... sea -1.3 ... SEA won 24-23 nyg @ sf ... 45.8 ... sf -3.5 ... NYG won 26-3 pit @ ten ... 45.2 ... pit -1.5 ... TEN won 26-23 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KOKIDKOKID Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 Am I reading this correctly...do your power rankings show that you were right only 3 times this past weekend (in regards to covering your predicted point spread) - the NY Jets game, the Tampa Bay game and the Miami game? Or maybe I am missing the point of your rankings? KO'd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 The point will be more obvious when the stats are compiled tomorrow or Wednesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Am I reading this correctly...do your power rankings show that you were right only 3 times this past weekend (in regards to covering your predicted point spread) - the NY Jets game, the Tampa Bay game and the Miami game? Or maybe I am missing the point of your rankings? KO'd You are reading it right but in Muck's defense, he doesn't put much stock into his model until after week 6. I'm curious what the model says for week 7. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinkris Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 (edited) I Put the spread and total I used beside each game. The spread is always based on the home team (so if the home team is favoured its -points, if they are an under dog its just points). The spread and totals always change through out the week so based on where you bet or when you bet they could be different. I just picked a day (pretty sure it was wednesday last week) and used the spread/totals on that day. Based on that the results are below: PIcks 7-7 Against the spread 8-5-1 (The spread was +1 for cle, and you had the same thing, +1 cle) Totals 10-4 Quite an impressive record this week for the totals! buf @ ari ... 42.5 ... ari -12.0 ... BUF won 19-16 Spread -4.5 (L) Total 43 (W) oak @ atl ... 46.8 ... atl -9.3 ... ATL won 23-20 Spread -9 (L) total 48 (W) cin @ cle ... 46.8 ... cin -1.0 ... CLE won 34-24 Spread 1 (T) Total 44 (W) dal @ bal ... 46.2 ... bal -7.0 ... BAL won 31-29 Spread -3.5 (L) Total 44 (W) den @ sd ... 50.6 ... den -1.2 … DEN won 35-24 Spread -2 (W) Total 49.5 (W) det @ phi ... 44.2 ... phi -4.3 ... DET won 26-23 Spread -4.5 (W) Total 47.5 (L) gb @ hou ... 46.2 ... hou -6.7 ... GB won 42-24 Spread -3.5 (L) Total 48 (L) ind @ nyj ... 43.6 ... nyj -2.4 ... NYJ won 35-9 Spread -3 (L) Total 42.5 (W) kc @ tb ... 50.8 ... tb -4.9 ... TB won 38-10 Spread -3.5 (W) Total 40 (W) stl @ mia ... 45.3 ... mia -0.9 ... MIA won 17-14 Spread -3.5 (W) Total 37.5 (L) min @ was ... 47.9 ... min -0.4 ... WAS won 38-26 Spread 1 (W) Total 44 (W) ne @ sea ... 45.3 ... sea -1.3 ... SEA won 24-23 Spread 3.5 (W) Total 45 (W) nyg @ sf ... 45.8 ... sf -3.5 ... NYG won 26-3 Spread -5 (W) Total 44.5 (L) pit @ ten ... 45.2 ... pit -1.5 ... TEN won 26-23 Spread 5.5 (W) Total 42.5 (W) Edited October 16, 2012 by kevinkris Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 Am I reading this correctly...do your power rankings show that you were right only 3 times this past weekend (in regards to covering your predicted point spread) - the NY Jets game, the Tampa Bay game and the Miami game? Or maybe I am missing the point of your rankings? KO'd You are reading it right but in Muck's defense, he doesn't put much stock into his model until after week 6. I'm curious what the model says for week 7. Actually, he wasn't reading it right at all. Kevinkris has it correct --- he is keeping track of whether or not my model is helpful for a bettor in deciding to take the under or over, and whether or not to take the underdog. For example, take the DEN/SD game ... Vegas was saying SD was favored by 2pts and the O/U was 49.5pts ... my model said DEN was favored by 1.2pts and the O/U was 50.6pts ... so, in using my model, you should have taken the underdog and the over ... both of which were winning bets. So, on the week, if I'm reading Kevinkris's results correctly, I was 8-5-1 vs. the spread and 9-5 on the O/U. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinkris Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 (edited) Actually, he wasn't reading it right at all. Kevinkris has it correct --- he is keeping track of whether or not my model is helpful for a bettor in deciding to take the under or over, and whether or not to take the underdog. For example, take the DEN/SD game ... Vegas was saying SD was favored by 2pts and the O/U was 49.5pts ... my model said DEN was favored by 1.2pts and the O/U was 50.6pts ... so, in using my model, you should have taken the underdog and the over ... both of which were winning bets. So, on the week, if I'm reading Kevinkris's results correctly, I was 8-5-1 vs. the spread and 9-5 on the O/U. thats right except you were 10-4 for the O/U. I put a L for the Pit/Ten game when it was really a W. Fixed it now! Edited October 16, 2012 by kevinkris Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 So, I was 18-9 on the week (you wouldn't have bet the winner of the CLE game since my projected line was the same as Vegas). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Actually, he wasn't reading it right at all. Kevinkris has it correct --- he is keeping track of whether or not my model is helpful for a bettor in deciding to take the under or over, and whether or not to take the underdog. For example, take the DEN/SD game ... Vegas was saying SD was favored by 2pts and the O/U was 49.5pts ... my model said DEN was favored by 1.2pts and the O/U was 50.6pts ... so, in using my model, you should have taken the underdog and the over ... both of which were winning bets. So, on the week, if I'm reading Kevinkris's results correctly, I was 8-5-1 vs. the spread and 9-5 on the O/U. Um... sure, OK. O/U aside, I don't see how you came out 8-5-1 against the spread. You got 3 right against the spread. I'm having trouble following kevin's logic. Here's one line from his analysis as an example: det @ phi ... 44.2 ... phi -4.3 ... DET won 26-23 Spread -4.5 (W) Total 47.5 (L) He has you as a W for the spread but PHI was favored to win and they lost outright. That is NOT a win. IF I'm missing something, please explain. Here's another: nyg @ sf ... 45.8 ... sf -3.5 ... NYG won 26-3 Spread -5 (W) Total 44.5 (L) Again, you AND Vegas had SF favored, yet NYG won. Again, that is not a win. What am I missing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 17, 2012 Author Share Posted October 17, 2012 RE: NYG at SF ... Vegas predicted SF would win by 5pts I predicted SF would win by 3.5pts I was less confident than Vegas, and therefore, you would have taken the underdog and the points ... and come out victorious. Vegas predicted the O/U at 44.5pts I predicted the O/U at 45.8pts I was more confident than Vegas in the points scored, and therefore, you would have taken the over ... and you would have lost. So, on the NYG@SF game, I was 1-1; for the week, I was 18-9 (with a push on the winner of the CIN/CLE game). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 17, 2012 Author Share Posted October 17, 2012 I'm not a bookie, and therefore I'm not laying odds ... I'm speculating that my model will help bettors decide to take the favorite or underdog ... to take the over or the under ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 RE: NYG at SF ... Vegas predicted SF would win by 5pts I predicted SF would win by 3.5pts I was less confident than Vegas, and therefore, you would have taken the underdog and the points ... and come out victorious. Vegas predicted the O/U at 44.5pts I predicted the O/U at 45.8pts I was more confident than Vegas in the points scored, and therefore, you would have taken the over ... and you would have lost. So, on the NYG@SF game, I was 1-1; for the week, I was 18-9 (with a push on the winner of the CIN/CLE game). Yeah, but the Vegas spreads change constantly up until game time. Not only that, but Vegas isn't trying to predict the actual spread, they are trying to predict what spread will attract an even number of bettors on each side - at least that's what I think they're doing with the spread. Since Vegas gets juice, they just need even money on each side of the spread. Any lopsided betting, adds risk for the odds makers. I see how kevin is using your model, but it's sloppy at best if only because the Vegas spreads change too frequently to compare against. On Thursday your model may be less confident in Team A and vice versa come Sunday. The line adjusts based on bettors leaning heavily in one direction. Now that I think of it, your model, used as kevin suggests, is a model that bets opposite the masses since they ultimately determine the spread. However, unless the user is constantly changing their bets based on the spread between your model and Vegas, there's no true measurement against. His analysis was taken from a snapshot in time. Had he taken spreads from another moment in time, your record could be dramatically different. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 17, 2012 Author Share Posted October 17, 2012 (edited) You're right ... which means that you could (theoretically) use the model to place multiple offsetting bets during the course of a week as the lines change (because, barring a typo, my model isn't changing during the week). PS -- I'd love to read about your specific ideas on each game each week in a way that would allow the user of the information to possibly profit. Edited October 17, 2012 by muck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 17, 2012 Author Share Posted October 17, 2012 I Put the spread and total I used beside each game. The spread is always based on the home team (so if the home team is favoured its -points, if they are an under dog its just points). The spread and totals always change through out the week so based on where you bet or when you bet they could be different. I just picked a day (pretty sure it was wednesday last week) and used the spread/totals on that day. Based on that the results are below: PIcks 7-7 Against the spread 8-5-1 (The spread was +1 for cle, and you had the same thing, +1 cle) Totals 10-4 Quite an impressive record this week for the totals! buf @ ari ... 42.5 ... ari -12.0 ... BUF won 19-16 Spread -4.5 (L) Total 43 (W) oak @ atl ... 46.8 ... atl -9.3 ... ATL won 23-20 Spread -9 (L) total 48 (W) cin @ cle ... 46.8 ... cin -1.0 ... CLE won 34-24 Spread 1 (T) Total 44 (W) dal @ bal ... 46.2 ... bal -7.0 ... BAL won 31-29 Spread -3.5 (L) Total 44 (W) den @ sd ... 50.6 ... den -1.2 … DEN won 35-24 Spread -2 (W) Total 49.5 (W) det @ phi ... 44.2 ... phi -4.3 ... DET won 26-23 Spread -4.5 (W) Total 47.5 (L) gb @ hou ... 46.2 ... hou -6.7 ... GB won 42-24 Spread -3.5 (L) Total 48 (L) ind @ nyj ... 43.6 ... nyj -2.4 ... NYJ won 35-9 Spread -3 (L) Total 42.5 (W) kc @ tb ... 50.8 ... tb -4.9 ... TB won 38-10 Spread -3.5 (W) Total 40 (W) stl @ mia ... 45.3 ... mia -0.9 ... MIA won 17-14 Spread -3.5 (W) Total 37.5 (L) min @ was ... 47.9 ... min -0.4 ... WAS won 38-26 Spread 1 (W) Total 44 (W) ne @ sea ... 45.3 ... sea -1.3 ... SEA won 24-23 Spread 3.5 (W) Total 45 (W) nyg @ sf ... 45.8 ... sf -3.5 ... NYG won 26-3 Spread -5 (W) Total 44.5 (L) pit @ ten ... 45.2 ... pit -1.5 ... TEN won 26-23 Spread 5.5 (W) Total 42.5 (W) For Week 6, the 'tweaked model' I reference in the "Week 7" thread would have been: 4-10 vs. the spread 6-8 vs. the O/U ...fyi... ...and, also remember that this 'tweaked model' (and the main model) are for amusement purposes only... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinkris Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Yeah, but the Vegas spreads change constantly up until game time. Not only that, but Vegas isn't trying to predict the actual spread, they are trying to predict what spread will attract an even number of bettors on each side - at least that's what I think they're doing with the spread. Since Vegas gets juice, they just need even money on each side of the spread. Any lopsided betting, adds risk for the odds makers. I see how kevin is using your model, but it's sloppy at best if only because the Vegas spreads change too frequently to compare against. On Thursday your model may be less confident in Team A and vice versa come Sunday. The line adjusts based on bettors leaning heavily in one direction. Now that I think of it, your model, used as kevin suggests, is a model that bets opposite the masses since they ultimately determine the spread. However, unless the user is constantly changing their bets based on the spread between your model and Vegas, there's no true measurement against. His analysis was taken from a snapshot in time. Had he taken spreads from another moment in time, your record could be dramatically different. I completely agree, I even said it in my post that I picked a time and used that spread and O/U, and that it could easily be different based on the time or place you bet. Muck asked if someone could use his model to see how his analysis would do betting agaisnt Vegas and I agreed to help. Many of his spreads are very close to the actual spreads put out by Vegas so of course it could change is record depending on when you bet/where you bet, but if you have any suggestions on how else we could do it, let me know! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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