Title Town Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Maybe I'm off base here, but it seems like defensive injuries are rarely talked about when evaluating offensive players on the opposing team. (Not just on the Huddle, but across the industry.) Hypothetically, if the Seahawks best pass rushing defensive end is inactive, shouldn't Brady be bumped up a bit? Or say the Seahawks starting MLB (their leading tackler) is out - do you bump Ridley in your rankings? I'm guessing defensive injuries aren't often taken into account because it's unclear exactly which skill players on the offense might benefit. But are there any sources out there that even try to really dig deep with the impact of a defensive starter being out? At best all I might see is an injury mentioned in passing, but with no further recommendation as to what it means or the significance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rd and schlong Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 You make a good point. However, going back to Brady and the rest of the NEP offense - I really doubt any of them will have a great game, or it would be really hard to pinpoint who, against seattle who has played, for the most part, extremely well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tripleshot Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 I think those that put forth weekly player predictions always take defensive player injuries into account. I think it is wrong to think they don't just because they aren't discussing it in length. To be honest, a simple "Green is a good play this week, a better matchup than normal with Joe Haden still out serving his suspension" is all that needs to be said. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevegrab Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 I think those that put forth weekly player predictions always take defensive player injuries into account. I think it is wrong to think they don't just because they aren't discussing it in length. To be honest, a simple "Green is a good play this week, a better matchup than normal with Joe Haden still out serving his suspension" is all that needs to be said. +1 I'm confident that DMD and the staff here do that based on the in depth information I've seen and their explanation of how they arrive at their predictions. Just because they don't talk about it a lot, doesn't mean they don't use that information in their analysis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 I actually specifically recall mentions of missing players. When Revis went out, for instance, that was discussed in the projections. Something to the effect of "The Jets have always been tough against the pass but will be missing their all pro CB" or something like that. I recall others but can't cite them and, like others have said, I'm certain that they take this into account even when they don't call it out by name. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 (edited) Maybe I'm off base here, but it seems like defensive injuries are rarely talked about when evaluating offensive players on the opposing team. (Not just on the Huddle, but across the industry.) Hypothetically, if the Seahawks best pass rushing defensive end is inactive, shouldn't Brady be bumped up a bit? Or say the Seahawks starting MLB (their leading tackler) is out - do you bump Ridley in your rankings? I'm guessing defensive injuries aren't often taken into account because it's unclear exactly which skill players on the offense might benefit. But are there any sources out there that even try to really dig deep with the impact of a defensive starter being out? At best all I might see is an injury mentioned in passing, but with no further recommendation as to what it means or the significance. I am not sure if you are using the MLB in your hypothetical or not but....the Seahawks leading tackler is their SLB, KJ Wright who has 27 solos and 8 assists (35 total tackles), their MLB, rookie Bobby Wagner has 20 solos and 9 assists (29 total tackles) and their WLB, Leroy Hill only has 9 solos and 7 assists (16 total tackles)...and as far bumping up Ridley based on Wagner it wouldn't be wise considering he doesn't play in their sub-packages and against the Patriots he could be on the field for the least amount of snaps he has played all year this week. Edited October 12, 2012 by keggerz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BA Baracus Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 I feel like I've read some stuff on the huddle in the past that talked about this...but I can't remember. I know I've seen projections there from time to time that will mention defensive injuries. I always check the opposing team injury report looking for defensive injuries when I have a tough decision to make, but yeah, it would be convenient to see that all in one place. In particular, it would be useful to have a list of potential sleeper starts based on defensive weakness and/or injury. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Title Town Posted October 12, 2012 Author Share Posted October 12, 2012 (edited) Yeah, I get that Haden or Revis being out is an obvious boon to the opposing #1 WR, but the kind of information Keggerz brought up is more what I'm talking about. The shutdown corners and pass rushers get a lot of attention but not so much the other positions. I guess my point is just that there are a million sites reporting things like "Donald Brown is out so start Vick Ballard", but not many (that I can find at least) reporting info like "Nose tackle and run-stopper for the Jets is out so start Vick Ballard". It would also help to know for D/ST purposes. Edited October 12, 2012 by Title Town Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tripleshot Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 I think that is already taken into account, but only the big name/pro bowl caliber non-corner/DE defensive players(Ngata, Willis, Wilfork, etc..) are going to get mentioned as a reason for upgrading an offensive player. Joe Shmoe defensive tackle for the Seahawks is not going to grant an upgrade to an opposing running back just because he's hurt, unless he's an upcoming stud player without any widespread name recognition yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LosGatosEnFuegos Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 I think that is already taken into account, but only the big name/pro bowl caliber non-corner/DE defensive players(Ngata, Willis, Wilfork, etc..) are going to get mentioned as a reason for upgrading an offensive player. Joe Shmoe defensive tackle for the Seahawks is not going to grant an upgrade to an opposing running back just because he's hurt, unless he's an upcoming stud player without any widespread name recognition yet. As a continuation of this, I think it gets mentioned if a teams is, say, on their third string SLB and 2nd string MLB. No names are named, but mention is made. But if one slightly better than average LB is out, doesn't have a big enough impact to mention. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 We certainly take into all aspects of a defense and part of that is obviously the injuries which I try to mention the next week when they happen and should have a direct impact to the opponents offense. Having done this for 16 years, I can always tell you that it is far too common to overvalue the impact of a defensive injury than it is to undervalue it. The reason is this - offenses cannot be better than whoever is handing the ball. You have to have a QB that can throw, a RB who can run and a WR that can catch. When you lose an offensive player who is a star, it will often lower the offensive output (maybe drastically) because that one person carrying the ball is now replaced by someone less talented who cannot make the same things happen in the exact same situations. However, this is different with defenses. It only matters that the defense stops the play and tackles the guy with the ball. If one guy misses, then theoretically ten others are going to try. "swarm to the ball" and all that. In the case of a star player being out and leaving a recognizable hole, the defense will try to fill in for him. Extra help from LB or safety or move players around or whatever. The only defensive position that can directly matter is cornerback since they are the only ones that really match up 1:1. At least sometimes. Honestly even that matters less and less. In the times past, it was straightforward with a FL and a SE matching up on a RCB and a LCB. Now with the increased use of the slot, how they will move receivers from one side to the other, in the backfield, over to the slot, etc.. that you cannot rely on that much. All of this is equally impacted by the offense that they are facing for the week. It is complicated and a challenge to analyze and project. You really need to evaluate a defense as a whole though and never merely the sum of its pieces (like an offense can be). There are a few shutdown corners who at least normally take their guy out of the game and need to be considered. Haden, Peterson, Revis, etc. Asomugha used to be and usually is but every few games gets torched. And the better that CB is, the more the offense will reposition their star WR to get him away from that matchup. I could go on and on but in short (which I have trouble with) yes, we consider defensive injuries. But I try not to overvalue them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Title Town Posted October 14, 2012 Author Share Posted October 14, 2012 Okay, makes sense to me. Thanks for your replies! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.