muck Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 (edited) Power Rankings: 1.234 CHI 1.218 ATL 1.197 HOU 1.159 BAL 1.147 SF 1.118 SEA 1.116 NYG 1.111 NE 1.099 ARI (the 2nd hardest schedule from here on out) 1.087 DEN (the 3rd hardest schedule thus far and the easiest schedule in the NFL from here on out) 1.084 MIN (the 3rd hardest schedule from here on out) 1.077 GB 1.069 MIA 1.040 WAS 1.037 STL 1.018 NYJ 0.991 DAL 0.981 SD 0.977 PHI 0.950 DET (the hardest schedule from here on out) 0.943 TB (the 2nd easiest schedule thus far) 0.940 PIT 0.939 CIN 0.886 IND 0.858 CLE 0.862 BUF (the 3rd easiest schedule thus far) 0.859 CAR 0.823 TEN 0.809 NO (the easiest schedule thus far) 0.807 OAK (the 2nd easiest schedule from here on out) 0.803 JAC 0.772 KC (the 3rd easiest schedule from here on out) ********************** Playoff Teams AFC -- HOU, BAL, NE, DEN, NYJ, MIA NFC -- CHI, ATL, SF, SEA, NYG, ARI ********************** ari @ min ... 47.5 ... min wins by 2.2 bal @ hou ... 47.0 ... hou wins by 4.1 ten @ buf ... 46.9 ... buf wins by 2.9 dal @ car ... 40.4 ... car wins by 0.3 det @ chi ... 41.9 ... chi wins by 9.8 pit @ cin ... 46.9 ... cin wins by 3.1 cle @ ind ... 46.1 ... ind wins by 2.6 gb @ stl ... 44.9 ... stl wins by 1.1 jac @ oak ... 47.6 ... oak wins by 4.5 nyj @ ne ... 41.8 ... ne wins by 5.7 no @ tb ... 48.4 ... tb wins by 6.8 was @ nyg ... 43.2 ... nyg wins by 5.6 sea @ sf ... 47.9 ... sf wins by 5.5 Edited October 17, 2012 by muck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rd and schlong Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Your highest total is the Sf game @ 52, while the lowest real total is the SF game @ 38 - that is some serious difference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 17, 2012 Author Share Posted October 17, 2012 Your highest total is the Sf game @ 52, while the lowest real total is the SF game @ 38 - that is some serious difference. fjording typo...I'll fix it in a second... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 17, 2012 Author Share Posted October 17, 2012 Your highest total is the Sf game @ 52, while the lowest real total is the SF game @ 38 - that is some serious difference. Fixed... sea @ sf ... 47.9 ... sf wins by 5.5 If that's what Vegas is telling you, my model would tell you to take the over... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rd and schlong Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Yeah not saying you're wrong, just quite a bit of a difference. 38 does seem low but it is two of the best defenses in the league and thursday games have seen some pretty low scores so I guess thats why it's there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 17, 2012 Author Share Posted October 17, 2012 3&S ---- your comment has caused me to do a little thinking ... I'm going to run a tweak to the model in parallel this week (and will re-run the tweak for last week) to see if the tweak improves things any ... thanks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 17, 2012 Author Share Posted October 17, 2012 ...for the record...the 'tweaked model' predicts the following: ari @ min ... 39.4 pts ... min wins by 2.7 bal @ hou ... 46.9 pts ... hou wins by 4.8 ten @ buf ... 53.5 pts ... buf wins by 3.8 dal @ car ... 43.2 pts ... dal wins by 0.1 det @ chi ... 48.7 pts ... chi wins by 16.2 pit @ cin ... 49.2 pts ... cin wins by 2.6 cle @ ind ... 49.1 pts ... ind wins by 0.8 gb @ stl ... 42.5 pts ... gb wins by 0.1 jac @ oak ... 42.9 pts ... oak wins by 5.5 nyj @ ne ... 50.4 pts ... ne wins by 9.4 no @ tb ... 51.5 pts ... tb wins by 8.7 was @ nyg ... 54.0 pts ... nyg wins by 9.6 sea @ sf ... 37.9 pts ... sf wins by 7.3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peepinmofo Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 3 teams from the AFCE making the playoffs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 17, 2012 Author Share Posted October 17, 2012 3 teams from the AFCE making the playoffs? The NFC is killing the AFC in intraleague games; if this trend continues, there will be lots of 7-9/8-8/9-7 teams sniffing the playoffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big John Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 The NFC is killing the AFC in intraleague games; if this trend continues, there will be lots of 7-9/8-8/9-7 teams sniffing the playoffs. Do do mean inter-conference? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 17, 2012 Author Share Posted October 17, 2012 Do do mean inter-conference? Err..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Thanks for posting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slugs3511 Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 So, you are saying.....since the line in the line in NO/ Tbay is NO -3 and your "tweaked" thingie do, says TBay by 8.7, I should take T bay? How does this system do overall? Have you done this in the past and how has it fared? Any results? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 18, 2012 Author Share Posted October 18, 2012 So, you are saying.....since the line in the line in NO/ Tbay is NO -3 and your "tweaked" thingie do, says TBay by 8.7, I should take T bay? How does this system do overall? Have you done this in the past and how has it fared? Any results? Original Model: no @ tb ... 48.4 ... tb wins by 6.8 Tweaked Model: no @ tb ... 51.5 ... tb wins by 8.7 *************************** I've run something very close to the "Original Model" off and on for several years, mainly for fun. I've been searching for a way to use this information to see if it is potentially profitable. Last week, the Original Model was 18-9 (combined vs. spread and vs. O/U) in all games (didn't bet the winner of the CLE/CIN game as my spread was the same as Vegas's). So, yes, my model would say to take TB and get the points ... and ... depending on the O/U in Vegas, you'd probably be encouraged to take the over (I'd be surprised if TB/NO had an O/U above 48.4 points (much less 51.5 points). C.Y.A. NOTE ---- This is for fun only and not for gambling. I'm not a gambling website and neither is The Huddle. Use this at your own risk. Etc. Basically, if you put $$ at risk as a result of my model, any losses are on you and the taxes owed on any gains are on you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slugs3511 Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Understood, and I never slice? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishPrince Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 ...for the record...the 'tweaked model' predicts the following: ari @ min ... 39.4 pts ... min wins by 2.7 bal @ hou ... 46.9 pts ... hou wins by 4.8 ten @ buf ... 53.5 pts ... buf wins by 3.8 dal @ car ... 43.2 pts ... dal wins by 0.1 det @ chi ... 48.7 pts ... chi wins by 16.2 pit @ cin ... 49.2 pts ... cin wins by 2.6 cle @ ind ... 49.1 pts ... ind wins by 0.8 gb @ stl ... 42.5 pts ... gb wins by 0.1 jac @ oak ... 42.9 pts ... oak wins by 5.5 nyj @ ne ... 50.4 pts ... ne wins by 9.4 no @ tb ... 51.5 pts ... tb wins by 8.7 was @ nyg ... 54.0 pts ... nyg wins by 9.6 sea @ sf ... 37.9 pts ... sf wins by 7.3 Nice model. How well does it correlate with past performance? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 19, 2012 Author Share Posted October 19, 2012 This is the first week for the "tweaked model" ... a version of the "original model" has been around for several years; last week it was 18-9 vs. Vegas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinkris Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 ari @ min ... 47.5 ... min wins by 2.2 … Min won 21-14 Spread -6 (L) Total 40 (L) bal @ hou ... 47.0 ... hou wins by 4.1 … Hou won 43-13 Spread -7 (L) Total 48 (L) ten @ buf ... 46.9 ... buf wins by 2.9 … Ten won 35-34 Spread -3.5 (W) Total 46 (W) dal @ car ... 40.4 ... car wins by 0.3 … Dal won 19-14 Spread 2 (L) Total 45.5 (W) det @ chi ... 41.9 ... chi wins by 9.8 … Chi won 13-7 Spread -6 (T) Total 47.5 (W) pit @ cin ... 46.9 ... cin wins by 3.1 … Pit won 24-17 Spread 1.5 (L) Total 46 (L) cle @ ind ... 46.1 ... ind wins by 2.6 … Ind won 17-13 Spread -2.5 (W) Total 45 (L) gb @ stl ... 44.9 ... stl wins by 1.1 … GB won 30-20 Spread 5 (L) Total 44 (W) jac @ oak ... 47.6 ... oak wins by 4.5 … Oak won 26-23 Spread -4 (L) Total 43 (W) nyj @ ne ... 41.8 ... ne wins by 5.7 … NE won 29-26 Spread -10 (W) Total 47 (L) no @ tb ... 48.4 ... tb wins by 6.8 … NO won 35-28 Spread 2.5 (L) Total 49.5 (L) was @ nyg ... 43.2 ... nyg wins by 5.6 … NYG won 27-23 Spread -5.5 (L) Total 50 (T) sea @ sf ... 47.9 ... sf wins by 5.5 … SF won 13-6 Spread -7 (T) Total 37.5 (L) Game right : 8-5 Spread : 3-8-2 Total : 5-7-1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 "TWEAKED" MODEL: ari @ min ... 39.4 pts ... min wins by 2.7 ... MIN won 21-14 Spread -6 (L) Total 40 (W) bal @ hou ... 46.9 pts ... hou wins by 4.8 ... HOU won 43-13 Spread -7 (L Total 48 (L) ten @ buf ... 53.5 pts ... buf wins by 3.8 ... TEN won 35-34 Spread -3.5 (W) Total 46 (W) dal @ car ... 43.2 pts ... dal wins by 0.1 ... DAL won 19-14 Spread 2 (L) Total 45.5 (W) det @ chi ... 48.7 pts ... chi wins by 16.2 ... CHI won 13-7 Spread -6 (T) Total 47.5 (L) pit @ cin ... 49.2 pts ... cin wins by 2.6 ... PIT won 24-17 Spread 1.5 (L) Total 46 (L) cle @ ind ... 49.1 pts ... ind wins by 0.8 ... IND won 17-13 Spread -2.5 (L) Total 45 (L) gb @ stl ... 42.5 pts ... gb wins by 0.1 ... GB won 30-20 Spread 5 (L) Total 44 (L) jac @ oak ... 42.9 pts ... oak wins by 5.5 ... OAK won 26-23 Spread -4 (L) Total 43 (L) nyj @ ne ... 50.4 pts ... ne wins by 9.4 ... NE won 29-26 Spread -10 (W) Total 47 (W) no @ tb ... 51.5 pts ... tb wins by 8.7 ... NO won 35-28 Spread 2.5 (L) Total 49.5 (W) was @ nyg ... 54.0 pts ... nyg wins by 9.6 ... NYG won 27-23 Spread -5.5 (L) Total 50 (T) sea @ sf ... 37.9 pts ... sf wins by 7.3 ... SF won 13-6 Spread -7 (T) Total 37.5 (L) Game right: 10-3 Spread: 5-7-1 Total: 2-10-1 ...looks like the original model did better in the first side-by-side week... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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