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Ryan Mathews - fading value?


Tripleshot
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He loses goal line touches to the plodding Jackie Battle.

 

He loses 3rd down and 2 minute offense touches to an ancient Ronnie Brown.

 

The only passes he sees are the occasional screens or dumpoffs on 1st and second down, despite having good hands and better speed/wiggle than Brown.

 

Tonight he got 15 total carries+targets to Brown's 13.

 

I'm curious what the San Diego fans think of this, giving so many touches to lesser players? Is it to protect Mathews' health? Is it simply a trust issue regarding Mathews' fumbling issues? Is it that Ronnie Brown is secretly Norv Turner's love child? Any Bolt homers have some insight? It may be time to reevaluate Mathews' value going forward, because he's not bell cow material right now.

Edited by Tripleshot
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First you have to prove your an elite runner before being crowned one. You wanna crown him then crown him, but Matthews is who we thought he was, wait wrong rant........The guy is hella fragile for one so caution is obvious and a must. The potential and talent is there no doubt. Norv has so many different packages and he utilizes each RB in a different way. Your essential counting on Matthews to break off and big play which is not out of the question. I look at him as a RB2 if you treat him as one then his numbers and upside is worth it and it's there. If your counting on Elite RB status, i'm not sure it's there in terms of the play calling and usage Norv uses him under.

 

As a Matthews owner what would you hope to get for him basically, where do you see his value ?

Edited by Seahawk
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As I have said before in this forum, Mathews has had way too many fumbles and injuries in the past to give Norv the confidence to increase his role in the offense. Until that confidence is restored I see more of the RBBC in San Diego.

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I needed to trade either him or Charles a couple weeks ago and chose to trade Mathews. I got Mike Wallace straight up for him. I think it was a fair trade considering that I was hurting at WR and he was hurting at RB.

 

I have just not been able to get on the Mathews hype bus. The guy just isn't that impressive a runner and the fumbling and injury issues don't help. Like Seahawk said, if you need him to be a RB2, then okay, but RB1 he is not. And honestly, I see him as more of a weak RB2 or strong FLEX.

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I think it stemmed primarily from DMD ranking him as the #4 RB.

Having done a bunch of mock drafts on Yahoo, ESPN, and FF Calc, it appears the Huddle was not alone in that regard. In fact, I recall the primary annoyance of those mocks was that those websites didn't adjust the rankings (or ADP) so he kept getting auto-drafted in the 1st round if someone was missing, even after his injury.
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Preseason??? If you added up his weekly projections, I bet he's the #1 RB in fantasy football.

 

Possibly, but as of now he's 13 in ROS rankings, so not even a RB1. There was a lot of pre-season love, but I know others also thought he was overhyped, and not going to produce top RB numbers either because of injury, turnovers putting him the doghouse or something else. Turns out it is a combination of those two factors plus Norv not using him as a true workhorse. While some may think Battle is a plodder, and Brown is old and slow, I can see why Norv doesn't use him more (fear of injury and turnovers, blocking could be an issue as well).

 

I know Seahawk was joking, but yeah for some of us he is who we thought he was (not an elite or top 10 fantasy RB). You can debate all you want whether Norv uses him properly, but I think its clear that he won't be the workhorse some expected. (Also doesn't help that their offense as a hole is struggling. Without those 2 def TDs you wonder how the game would have gone.)

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Having done a bunch of mock drafts on Yahoo, ESPN, and FF Calc, it appears the Huddle was not alone in that regard. In fact, I recall the primary annoyance of those mocks was that those websites didn't adjust the rankings (or ADP) so he kept getting auto-drafted in the 1st round if someone was missing, even after his injury.

 

No major FF site had more love for Matthews then DMD. However, there were alot of Huddlers that warned against taking him (chargers, big earn etc).

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Just went back and checked huddle pre-season rankings, Mathews was 10, 12 for a keeper. Chris Johnson was ranked 5th, where's the disappoint for that rankgin and all the love (for a guy who many thought was toast after his horrible 2011).

 

You win some you lose some, but surely Mathews wasn't the worst or only thing that DMD and others missed on. I guess some people are still getting that this isn't an exact science, but basically a huge educated guess. Predicting the weather is probably easier than fantasy football.

 

I had an owner trying to trade me Mathews for Calvin or Fitz early in the season, and I didn't take it beause I was leary of his situation (injuries, not a proven stud or even the workhouse back).

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Just went back and checked huddle pre-season rankings...............

 

 

I can't fault anyone for preseason rankings. You've got to take them all with a grain of salt. But, now we're into Week 9. The preseason crystal ball should be back in storage. Here are the Huddle projections for Mathews this year:

 

[Total yards, TDs]

Week 1: injured

Week 2: 50, 1

Week 3: 90, 1

Week 4: 110,1

Week 5: 110, 1

Week 6: 140, 2

Week 7: bye

Week 8: 110, 1

Week 9: 130, 2

 

TOTAL Ryan Mathews Projections: 740 yds, 9 TDs

 

#1 RB - Arian Foster Actual Stats: 730 yards, 9 TDs

Ryan Mathews Actual Stats: 566 yards, 1 TD

--------

 

Are the projections still based on preseason potential? Are we chasing a preseason rank? Wow, I hope not. Are the Projections based only on an opponent's defensive rank? Or, are the Projectiona based actual data AND what we've seen on (and off) the field so far this year? At this point in the season, you would think that all the factors pulling Mathews' value down are apparent. The Norv effect, the Battle effect, the Ronnie Brown effect, the Injury effect, the crappy O-Line affect, the Rivers Down year effect.....etc. Yet every week 100+ yards and a TD or 2 in the projections and a Stud Start.

 

Kudos to DMD and the Huddle for putting your balz on the line and making these projections, they are still fun to read. But, the constant misses on Mathews is a hugh bilnd spot. And, they are all UPSIDE misses. You never see a 40 total yards and 0 TDs for him.

 

Time to recalibrate the Mathews Huddle Love Meter.

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Based on my scoring format (PPR) Mathews was the #4 RB according to the Huddle. Please spare me the "FF is not an exact science" argument. I, along with everyone else that plays FF understands that. The issue is the Huddle was higher on Matthews then any other major site. And as the season progressed they continued to project him as a top RB including the past two weeks.

 

I also don't need DMDs explanation of why he projected Matthews as the #1 RB this week based in KC def etc because the opposite argument can be made for why not to rank him in the top 10 (see tripleshots post above). I guess the major issue is why DMD continues to project him so high when he has various issues limiting his output.

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I can't fault anyone for preseason rankings. You've got to take them all with a grain of salt. But, now we're into Week 9. The preseason crystal ball should be back in storage. Here are the Huddle projections for Mathews this year:

 

[Total yards, TDs]

Week 1: injured

Week 2: 50, 1

Week 3: 90, 1

Week 4: 110,1

Week 5: 110, 1

Week 6: 140, 2

Week 7: bye

Week 8: 110, 1

Week 9: 130, 2

 

TOTAL Ryan Mathews Projections: 740 yds, 9 TDs

 

#1 RB - Arian Foster Actual Stats: 730 yards, 9 TDs

Ryan Mathews Actual Stats: 566 yards, 1 TD

--------

 

Are the projections still based on preseason potential? Are we chasing a preseason rank? Wow, I hope not. Are the Projections based only on an opponent's defensive rank? Or, are the Projectiona based actual data AND what we've seen on (and off) the field so far this year? At this point in the season, you would think that all the factors pulling Mathews' value down are apparent. The Norv effect, the Battle effect, the Ronnie Brown effect, the Injury effect, the crappy O-Line affect, the Rivers Down year effect.....etc. Yet every week 100+ yards and a TD or 2 in the projections and a Stud Start.

 

Kudos to DMD and the Huddle for putting your balz on the line and making these projections, they are still fun to read. But, the constant misses on Mathews is a hugh bilnd spot. And, they are all UPSIDE misses. You never see a 40 total yards and 0 TDs for him.Y

 

Time to recalibrate the Mathews Huddle Love Meter.

 

 

Ha, disregard my last post and just read NRJs.

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Just went back and checked huddle pre-season rankings, Mathews was 10, 12 for a keeper. Chris Johnson was ranked 5th, where's the disappoint for that rankgin and all the love (for a guy who many thought was toast after his horrible 2011).

 

You win some you lose some, but surely Mathews wasn't the worst or only thing that DMD and others missed on. I guess some people are still getting that this isn't an exact science, but basically a huge educated guess. Predicting the weather is probably easier than fantasy football.

 

I had an owner trying to trade me Mathews for Calvin or Fitz early in the season, and I didn't take it beause I was leary of his situation (injuries, not a proven stud or even the workhouse back).

 

 

not 100% sure but i think he was at #4 before he got hurt

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not 100% sure but i think he was at #4 before he got hurt

 

 

Could be, not sure if those old ranking pages are available.

 

Projects are just that, a big guess. Last year they were projecting 2TDs for Calvin almost every week while he was having huge games. Did I really believe that he was going to get 2TDs every week? Was I going to blast the huddle when he didn't? No and no.

 

I wonder if some of you have read the in depth explanations from DMD on he does projections. One of the things he points out is he comes up with the game result, including the scores then works back from that. One of the hardest things is determing who will get the TDs.

 

Looking at the total projects sited by NRJ above, yardage of 566 vs. 740, off by about 25%. Sure they've been way off on the TDs, but it appears those are getting harder to judge in SD with Battle and Brown.

 

Should the projections for Mathews be lower, I suppose but where is DMD going to move those yards and points, without making other incorrect projections?

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Just went back and checked huddle pre-season rankings, Mathews was 10, 12 for a keeper. Chris Johnson was ranked 5th, where's the disappoint for that rankgin and all the love (for a guy who many thought was toast after his horrible 2011).

 

You win some you lose some, but surely Mathews wasn't the worst or only thing that DMD and others missed on. I guess some people are still getting that this isn't an exact science, but basically a huge educated guess. Predicting the weather is probably easier than fantasy football.

 

I had an owner trying to trade me Mathews for Calvin or Fitz early in the season, and I didn't take it beause I was leary of his situation (injuries, not a proven stud or even the workhouse back).

 

 

 

There have been many threads about Chris Johnson, but not of late because he has had a nice string of good games. So far Johnson has 595 rushing yards and 128 receiving for a combined total of 723, with a ypc average of 4.54 ( 131 carries ). I think he will have a bad game this week, but he does still have some good games ahead that owners can count on because he will get the touches and has so far demonstrated a good durability.Most likely Mathews was being relatively ignored because of all the CJ0K rants.

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Definitely losing value. The Huddle had him projected for 100 rushing yards and a TD to go along with 4 catches for 20 more yards and another TD. He had just over 70 total yards and no TDs. That's a HUGH diappointment and against the Chiefs no less. Ronnie Brown is also getting a lot of looks. I watched a bit of the game last night and every time I turned around Brown was running the ball or catching another pass. The Chargers scored over 30 points and Mathews didn't cross the stripe once and didn't put up close to 100 yards, combining rushing/receiving. SUCKS!

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