Matt Ryan, Home v Away

[stethant]

We've talked a bunch about the home/away performance of the Falcons 2 WRs, Roddy and Julio, but I think there's a split for their QB as well. He plays better, FFL-wise, on the road.

 

The Huddle's strength of schedule tool shows you the average number of points each defense gives up to QBs. Taking the 4 home and 4 away games, Ryan's schedule is slightly easier on the road - 87.2 to 76.9 points. That is, in the away games the Falcons have played, you'd expect their opposing defenses to give up 87.2 fantasy points to the QB when you add up those 4 games.

 

Ryan's actual numbers show that he's outperformed the average on the road, but underperformed the average at home, 106 (away) to 68 (home) actual compared to the 87.2 (away) and 76.9 (home) predicted. These numbers assume 1pt per 30 passing yds and 6 pts for TDs, but the trend's the same regardless of the scoring system.

 

So, he's better on the road than you'd expect and not as good at home as you'd expect. I don't follow the Falcons regularly but as a casual fan, and Ryan owner, he seems more focused in road games. Sample size is admittedly small but I found this interesting.

[DMD]

There are a number of quarterbacks who will play better on the road because at home it all works better and the rushing game almost always improves. Most are not pushed to do as much as they are in road games. Of course there are teams like the Saints who force lot's of passing most every week. Tom Brady does the same thing with bigger games on the road.