20 replies to this topic

[Bronco Billy]

PHI +3 1/2 @ WAS

How's this for trends:

WAS 5-15 at home under Shanahan
WAS 1-9 in last 10 vs teams with 5 game or longer losing streaks
WAS 0-8 in last 8 games vs rookie starters

[Zooty]

:money:
Cha-ching

[MnLefty]

That's too much evidence stacked up one way... almost have to assume the game will buck the trends now.

[Bronco Billy]

MnLefty, on 15 November 2012 - 09:06 AM, said:

That's too much evidence stacked up one way... almost have to assume the game will buck the trends now.

[skylive5]

Take the 'Skins straight up. This has shatter the trend all over it.

[Bronco Billy]

skylive5, on 15 November 2012 - 09:41 AM, said:

Take the 'Skins straight up. This has shatter the trend all over it.

Ummmm - the Skins are giving 3 1/2...

[skylive5]

Bronco Billy, on 15 November 2012 - 09:48 AM, said:

Ummmm - the Skins are giving 3 1/2...

Missed that. But doesn't matter.... taking Philly and the points won't be winning anything this week.

[Bronco Billy]

The home record is an eye opener, but those last 2 trends are mind boggling.  Neither one is due to simple random circumstances.  We're talking about 1 win in ten against NFL teams with extended losing streaks, and the other is no wins in the past eight tries against NFL rookies.

Either of those last two by themselves is sound reason to go against WAS in a situation where they are giving a FG and the hook.  But both together and then pile the home record on top of it?  That speaks to a serious system-wide problem within the organization over a prolonged time period.

Not trying to get anyone to put up their mortgage this weekend.  I just don't remember seeing a team giving points against such damning evidence, which is what caused me to post it in the first place.

Edited by Bronco Billy, 15 November 2012 - 09:59 AM.

[skylive5]

Well....of course I am a dyed in the wool homer for sure. And I always see my team winning no matter what. However, even with those trends saying take Philly, this is a different team this year and Philly is in disarray. Time for all those trends to end and no better time to do it than against a very bad Philly team.

[rattsass]

Hows this for a trend, how many years in a row has Andy Reid coached a team that didn't totally suck?  A dozen?  Once that trend is broken I'm not sure the rest matter any more, I have to agree.  From a raw numbers perspective, you go with those trends, but we have extenuating circumstances that make those historical trends moot in my opinion.

That being said, if the Eagles covered against the Skins it certainly wouldn't be shocking no matter the circumstances.  Its a division game.  3 points about right.

[tazinib1]

Al-A-Mo will go off for 100+ and a score. That's all that matters.

[skylive5]

Sure hope all you people that followed the trend and went Philly didn't spend the money you were expecting.

Like I said earlier.... time those trends were laid to rest. Philly really is a very bad team.

Should have listened BB.  :oldrazz:

[whomper]

skylive5, on 18 November 2012 - 08:03 PM, said:

Sure hope all you people that followed the trend and went Philly didn't spend the money you were expecting.

Like I said earlier.... time those trends were laid to rest. Philly really is a very bad team.

Should have listened BB.  :oldrazz:

I think Mccoy holds the only FF value on that team right now and even he isnt producing like he was. The NFC east is just pretty lousy this year.

[HowboutthemCowboys]

whomper, on 18 November 2012 - 08:17 PM, said:

I think Mccoy holds the only FF value on that team right now and even he isnt producing like he was. The NFC east is just pretty lousy this year.

left with a concussion I believe

[bostonsoxandy]

You fools don't understand the genius of BB. I can't comprehend it as well, but it's definitely...probably...possibly somewhere.

[irish]

LMAO!  Where did that BB go?  I never hesitating in picking the Skins today and actually thought it would be a blowout.

[skylive5]

irish, on 18 November 2012 - 10:25 PM, said:

I never hesitating in picking the Skins today and actually thought it would be a blowout.

Sure you did. Right.

[Sunday Couch Potatoe]

skylive5, on 18 November 2012 - 11:48 PM, said:

Sure you did. Right.

[Bronco Billy]

irish, on 18 November 2012 - 10:25 PM, said:

LMAO!  Where did that BB go?  I never hesitating in picking the Skins today and actually thought it would be a blowout.

What, did you expect me to go hide?  I was reporting valid stats, and stats that were pretty mind boggling when you consider play in the NFL.  As a gambler I don't know how you buck multiple trends like that, but that's why I don't gamble too.  I would have held my nose, bought in, and put down some extra on PHI.

[detlef]

I couldn't help but think of this thread when I saw the score of the game.  My first thought being, of course, which dickheads that didn't chime in prior to the game were going to show up and talk chight...

Glad to see a few didn't disappoint.

[MnLefty]

I'm not going to chime in and talk tough... just point out that that's how trends roll for me.  I don't gamble on sports much at all, save for FF, survivor pools, and march madness, and it's for the reason(s) this thread illustrates.  It's been my experience that when something seems to be trending as strong as this one was that the reversal is due... however it probably doesn't happen enough to make it pay by betting against the trend either.

I wish I could say that I cashed big by throwing a prop bet out in Vegas on WAS, giving double or triple points to cash big, but my thought on the reversal was nothing more than a hunch based on my own observations of past results.  Pretty easy to say 'look at me now', but if BB found trends that strong each week you're gonna make much more cash by betting the trend rather than bucking it, the bucks just stand out more.