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Kaepernick kills Smith?


WashingtonD
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If Smith wants out next year for a chance to start somewhere we'd gladly take him here in MN. Last year's Smith is what we were hoping for from Ponder and to this point it's not happening yet... and I don't really see it happening. I'd happily take Smith and hope to develop somebody behind him, although he's about 5-6 years too young for the Vikes to make a move for him yet. :tdown: They're usually not interested until a guy has almost nothing left.

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Baltimore Ravens with Trent Dilfer. Steelers with Roethlisberger in his rookie year(and the refs).

Dilfer was in 2000 season (although the SB was in 2001). When I look at the SB winners the list reads

 

Eli Manning

Rodgers

Brees

Roethlisberger

Eli Manning

P. Manning

Roethlisberger

T. Brady

T. Brady

R. Gannon

T. Brady

T. Dilfer

K. Warner

J. Elway

 

Smith has played well and if he didn't get hurt I don't think he would have been pulled. That being said, I don't blame the HC for giving Kap a try. It's a bold move and I don't know if I'd have the brass ones to pull it at this point in the year but if the goal is to win the SB it seems to favor dynamic playmakers on offense a lot more than game managers.

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The most interesting thing for me here is how Harbaugh is allowing/enabling the ambiguity to continue by specifically declining to name a starter for the next game (again).

 

He's got to have a chives ton of confidence in his hold on that locker room (and probably rightfully so) to play this particular game of chicken. Definitely a bit harder on opposing DCs to game plan for the 9ers if you aren't sure if you are getting special K or Alex Smith in the coming week.

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Let's see how this plays out into the playoffs. The quality of competition is going to be stronger and the pressure much more intense. I watched Smith pull off not one but two hugh drives in the 4th quarter vs NO last year, and he had SF in the SB if it weren't for a butter-fingered PR.

 

I have a feeling this won't end well - and that's no knock on Kaepernick.

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I'm looking forward to seeing him play in person this week. I think either way Harbaugh goes, the Niners are pissed about the earlier tie with the Rams, so they're going to be fired up. Gonna be a real tough go for the Rams.

 

But if he starts Smith, and they beat the Rams, everything gets worse, right? I think he's gotta start Kaepernick from here on out, at least until he loses.

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Let's see how this plays out into the playoffs. The quality of competition is going to be stronger and the pressure much more intense. I watched Smith pull off not one but two hugh drives in the 4th quarter vs NO last year, and he had SF in the SB if it weren't for a butter-fingered PR.

 

I have a feeling this won't end well - and that's no knock on Kaepernick.

 

That's not entirely true. Sure, they ultimately lost the game because of the 2nd fumbled punt, but SF had their chances despite the first one. A 2nd and 5 from NYG 10 to go up by 4 rather than tie with a FG in a drive that Williams sort-of atoned for his fumble by returning the kick-off to midfield, and then 3 more chances with the ball to win the game in regulation. In those 3 drives, Smith was 2 for 7 for 6 yards before a desperation play with 4 seconds to go netted them another 30 yards as the clock expired.

 

Now, I'm not blaming Smith for the loss by any stretch. Rather, just pointing out that it's not exactly fair to say that he had them in the SB were it not for those fumbles.

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OK, so after some careful thought, I think I'm officially on-board with the switch.

 

In short, I think Kaepernick is a better QB and, more importantly, I'm rather certain that Harbaugh feels that way, and that's all that matters.

 

Smith is nice and efficient, but he's also what is wrong with QB ratings. His numbers are way more impressive than he is and I think the coaches don't feel 100% comfortable running what they want when he's in there. Kaepernick seems to be the guy who they've built the offense around. And he's someone they feel like they can truly open things up with.

 

Kaep is not a rookie (though I've heard or read more than one person refer to him as such, intentionally on accident, I would assume, in order to bolden their stance). He's 2/3 of the way through his 2nd year and has now spent that time learning first hand that the game is faster and "open" means something entirely different than it did in college. He's also got 5 more games to work out the kinks before the play-offs start.

 

I also don't care that Smith did nothing to lose the job or any of that. If you're the 2nd best QB on your team, you should be holding the clipboard. In something as competitive as football, that should be all you need.

 

Ultimately, though, I basically trust Harbaugh. He's been just about perfect since he started, so I think he's pretty much earned the right to do what the hell he wants. While he's obviously got an ego, he doesn't seem like a dumbass who would let that get in the way of success.

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I just feel a little bad for Alex Smith. Not terribly bad, as football has made him a multi-millionaire and life has been pretty good to him, but bad in the sense that as a part of the SF organization he has not really been in situations in which he had a consistent shot at succeeding. Now that he is in one he gets yanked even though he is playing great.

 

And WRT the whole QB rating thing, I think that his play is a worthy of that rating. He plays good, mistake free football. He reads defenses quickly and delivers the ball where it needs to be. He's near the top of the league in terms of how long he holds the ball. Kaepernick is near the bottom, and I wonder if that will become an issue in the long run.

 

IMO a large part of SF's success over the last 2 seasons has been that their offense has been mechanical and reliable. If it becomes more dynamic but also more prone to mistakes and less reliable then have they really gained anything?

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I just feel a little bad for Alex Smith. Not terribly bad, as football has made him a multi-millionaire and life has been pretty good to him, but bad in the sense that as a part of the SF organization he has not really been in situations in which he had a consistent shot at succeeding. Now that he is in one he gets yanked even though he is playing great.

 

And WRT the whole QB rating thing, I think that his play is a worthy of that rating. He plays good, mistake free football. He reads defenses quickly and delivers the ball where it needs to be. He's near the top of the league in terms of how long he holds the ball. Kaepernick is near the bottom, and I wonder if that will become an issue in the long run.

 

IMO a large part of SF's success over the last 2 seasons has been that their offense has been mechanical and reliable. If it becomes more dynamic but also more prone to mistakes and less reliable then have they really gained anything?

 

Why I make my point about the QB rating is that, as a fan, when I watch them play, I don't get the feeling "we've got this". I'm always left hoping and feel like the coaches protect him. And, again, fair or not, if they don't have the confidence in him to let it roll, then there's not much you can do about that. The offense they run with him works great against teams they're supposed to beat, but perhaps not so much against others. NO last year is either an exception to that being the case or an exception to the style of play they tend to run with Smith at the helm.

 

Also, I don't actually think him holding the ball long is a good thing. One of SF's weak links is giving up the sack. It was one of the things that cost them the NFC title.

 

I guess I have a hard time listening to a Patriots fan tell me that I should be happy with a "reliable" offense that's not entirely dynamic. NE's ability to light up the scoreboard has been their trump card for years now. Defense may win championships in baseball and basketball, but you need to be able to score in the NFL.

Edited by detlef
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Why I make my point about the QB rating is that, as a fan, when I watch them play, I don't get the feeling "we've got this". I'm always left hoping and feel like the coaches protect him. And, again, fair or not, if they don't have the confidence in him to let it roll, then there's not much you can do about that. The offense they run with him works great against teams they're supposed to beat, but perhaps not so much against others. NO last year is either an exception to that being the case or an exception to the style of play they tend to run with Smith at the helm.

 

Also, I don't actually think him holding the ball long is a good thing. One of SF's weak links is giving up the sack. It was one of the things that cost them the NFC title.

 

I guess I have a hard time listening to a Patriots fan tell me that I should be happy with a "reliable" offense that's not entirely dynamic. NE's ability to light up the scoreboard has been their trump card for years now. Defense may win championships in baseball and basketball, but you need to be able to score in the NFL.

 

 

I think you misunderstand my point about him being near the top of the league in terms of how long he holds the ball. I mean that he does not hold the ball very long in comparison to other QBs and that he typically gets the ball out quickly. Kaepernick is among the slowest.

 

You should listen to a Pats fan about this, because it took Tom Brady years of starting in a consistent system to be able to execute the offense at the level they have maintained since 2006+. Prior to that they were running more the "reliable" offense...and winning Superbowls. You had the recipe with Alex Smith as the starter IMO. Kaepernick might be more dynamic but that does not mean he will make the team more championship worthy.

 

Some interesting analysis on Smith vs. Kaepernick

 

I am not saying that this won't work out for the best BTW...just that I wish for Alex Smith that he had more opportunity to play in a consistent system with good, consistent coaching. Clearly the last 2 years have shown he can play the game at a fairly high level in that environment.

Edited by Caveman_Nick
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I think you misunderstand my point about him being near the top of the league in terms of how long he holds the ball. I mean that he does not hold the ball very long in comparison to other QBs and that he typically gets the ball out quickly. Kaepernick is among the slowest.

 

You should listen to a Pats fan about this, because it took Tom Brady years of starting in a consistent system to be able to execute the offense at the level they have maintained since 2006+. Prior to that they were running more the "reliable" offense...and winning Superbowls. You had the recipe with Alex Smith as the starter IMO. Kaepernick might be more dynamic but that does not mean he will make the team more championship worthy.

 

Some interesting analysis on Smith vs. Kaepernick

 

I am not saying that this won't work out for the best BTW...just that I wish for Alex Smith that he had more opportunity to play in a consistent system with good, consistent coaching. Clearly the last 2 years have shown he can play the game at a fairly high level in that environment.

 

Yes, I took your statement to mean the exact opposite of what you said. Which obviously makes a huge difference.

 

And that is a very interesting read that makes the primary point that I agree with. That SF would not be doing this if they didn't think he was a significant upgrade. I'm not in a position to truly confirm with that analysis, even if I happen to think it's probably true. Rather, I'm just prepared to put my faith in the brain trust who have turn my Niners around so effectively and quickly.

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Yes, I took your statement to mean the exact opposite of what you said. Which obviously makes a huge difference.

 

 

As did I, I think 99% of the people reading that would misunderstand it.

 

No different than if one says "Team X leads the league in giving up sacks", one would expect that means they give up the most (not the least) sacks.

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"Near the top" typically means "Is among the best" :shrug:

 

But "holding the ball" isn't always a bad thing. It's often listed among Big Ben's strong suits, because, with him, it's called "keeping the play alive" and has contributed to much of his success as receivers end up getting open for big plays.

 

With that in mind, one could understand taking the judgment of good or bad out of it and simply have it be a ranking of who holds it longest.

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"Near the top" typically means "Is among the best" :shrug:

 

 

Yeah I get that, but when the numbers run opposite to what is best, and its not something we all look at regularly, its easy to misunderstand. Its not like we were talking about golf scores where everybody (even people like me who don't play or follow the sport) know that a lower score is better.

 

Maybe I'm just over analyzing, its what I do :nerd:

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But "holding the ball" isn't always a bad thing. It's often listed among Big Ben's strong suits, because, with him, it's called "keeping the play alive" and has contributed to much of his success as receivers end up getting open for big plays.

 

With that in mind, one could understand taking the judgment of good or bad out of it and simply have it be a ranking of who holds it longest.

 

 

Splitting hairs. In most cases reading the defense and getting the ball out quickly is considered superior.

 

It doesn't matter, considering that SF went the other way. I hope it works out for them, but I also hope that Alex Smith gets a chance to get into a situation where he can excel for next season. He deserved better.

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Splitting hairs. In most cases reading the defense and getting the ball out quickly is considered superior.

 

It doesn't matter, considering that SF went the other way. I hope it works out for them, but I also hope that Alex Smith gets a chance to get into a situation where he can excel for next season. He deserved better.

 

 

Oh and I agree with how you feel about Smith. Having watched some decent QBs fail miserably in CLE (Couch, etc.) during the revolving door era with new coaches, offenses, etc. I can see how Smith finally started to show what he could do once he got some consistency around him. Now he's lost his starting job and could be viewed by most in the NFL as a game manager or career backup at best.

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Oh and I agree with how you feel about Smith. Having watched some decent QBs fail miserably in CLE (Couch, etc.) during the revolving door era with new coaches, offenses, etc. I can see how Smith finally started to show what he could do once he got some consistency around him. Now he's lost his starting job and could be viewed by most in the NFL as a game manager or career backup at best.

 

Assuming he's done in SF, someone is going to get a very solid QB next year. My guess is that he'll be starting somewhere. KC, again, looks to be a decent landing spot for an ex Niner QB.
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of course i will be rooting for kap to do well, but the fan in me knows better about making this decision at this time. kap will open up the playbook a bit, but will be more prone to making mistakes (something i don't love in a sb run). the 9ers formula has been playing mistake free ball and stellar defense. if the new formula works, it should provide better holes for the running attack and put less pressure on the defense. if it fails, this could be pretty bad. smith proved last year that he can get the team to the NFC conference game even with his liabilities. shoot, even in spite of his deficiencies they were a couple of pr gaffs away from the sb. he has improved this year. in fact he went 25/27 immediately before losing his job. this cannot be good for the locker room. "no matter how well you are playing, don't get injured because you can lose your job." and i think smith will walk next year as a result of this and now we are going to need a decent backup the impending injury to the running qb.

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of course i will be rooting for kap to do well, but the fan in me knows better about making this decision at this time. kap will open up the playbook a bit, but will be more prone to making mistakes (something i don't love in a sb run). the 9ers formula has been playing mistake free ball and stellar defense. if the new formula works, it should provide better holes for the running attack and put less pressure on the defense. if it fails, this could be pretty bad. smith proved last year that he can get the team to the NFC conference game even with his liabilities. shoot, even in spite of his deficiencies they were a couple of pr gaffs away from the sb. he has improved this year. in fact he went 25/27 immediately before losing his job. this cannot be good for the locker room. "no matter how well you are playing, don't get injured because you can lose your job." and i think smith will walk next year as a result of this and now we are going to need a decent backup the impending injury to the running qb.

 

Again, that is simply not true. Sure, they had a 4 pt lead very early in the 4th. And, no, I'm certainly not blaming Smith for the loss. But with 3 cracks with the ball and the score tied, he failed to launch any meaningful drive. So, it's simply not accurate to say he had them in the SB were it not for the fumbles.

 

And why do we assume that Kaepernick is going to be more mistake prone? In his 2.5 games he's been running the offense, he's scored 4 TDs (3 passing, 2 rushing) and had one turnover. And one of those games was against a D that's been feasting on TOs. Smith had 13 total TDs (all passing) and 6 turnovers (5 picks, 1 lost fumble). Not saying those are bad numbers for Smith and certainly not saying that the numbers suggest a less mistake-prone offense under Kaepernick. However, I think they at least show it's not fair to expect more mistakes.

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Again, that is simply not true. Sure, they had a 4 pt lead very early in the 4th. And, no, I'm certainly not blaming Smith for the loss. But with 3 cracks with the ball and the score tied, he failed to launch any meaningful drive. So, it's simply not accurate to say he had them in the SB were it not for the fumbles.

 

And why do we assume that Kaepernick is going to be more mistake prone? In his 2.5 games he's been running the offense, he's scored 4 TDs (3 passing, 2 rushing) and had one turnover. And one of those games was against a D that's been feasting on TOs. Smith had 13 total TDs (all passing) and 6 turnovers (5 picks, 1 lost fumble). Not saying those are bad numbers for Smith and certainly not saying that the numbers suggest a less mistake-prone offense under Kaepernick. However, I think they at least show it's not fair to expect more mistakes.

 

 

i've mentioned before that i believe smith played a roll in that nfc conf loss, but a much heavier burden falls on those returns imo. this year 3 ints came in the game vs the giants. the potential mistakes i am referring to are not just turnovers: things like clock and situation management. i expect more mistakes because he is young and honestly, throws down field more, and he takes more risks with his throws, and runs the ball more.... these things lead to more turnovers whether we are talking about kaepernick or not.

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And why do we assume that Kaepernick is going to be more mistake prone?

 

 

Many non educated fans don't realize his lone interception occurred after a bad snap. When he knelt down to retrieve the ball, he failed to read the defense. He had no idea there was a defender in position to intercept that pass when he raised up and launched the ball. Rookie mistake? Sure, but I've seen veterans commit that same error. So to the detractors that say he is turn-over prone, are sorely mistaken and need to take a NFL 101 class.

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