Goodell open to eliminating the kick off

[detlef]

I wonder what happens if the offense decided to go for the 15 yard play and then there are penalties on the Defense on the play. Does PI get the person the first down ? etc

 

There's a lot of questions that would certainly need to be answered. And, honestly, I don't know how "fair" it is. They might need to increase the yardage for the 1st down or some such. But I don't see how this makes the game any less exciting.

 

Does the kicking team line up like a normal punt? In other words, is it just like any other 4th down in that regard? That means they can line up and fake it rather than be obvious about going for it. It also means the return team can try to block the kick.

[skylive5]

Good to know that one of two plays, both involving a dude kicking the ball a long ways and another dude catching it and running back with it while players from the kicking team are running down the field to tackle him is so much obviously more exciting than the other that it's stupid to even question.

 

 

You know what? You are right. They should get rid of the Kickoff. Goodall is a wonderful person and is great for the game. His next big move after they get rid of the kickoff will be, I am sure, to eliminate any form of physical touching of WRs and RBs by the defense.

[detlef]

You know what? You are right. They should get rid of the Kickoff. Goodall is a wonderful person and is great for the game. His next big move after they get rid of the kickoff will be, I am sure, to eliminate any form of physical touching of WRs and RBs by the defense.

 

Now hold the eff up! Dont pull that crap. You said that removing the kick-off would be horrible because you love the return. Then I reminded you that there'd still be a return because they're punting instead and you dismissed that as not worth mentioning. Following up that it is apparently so obvious that kick-offs are more exciting than punts that, apparently, I should have known before bothering you with such a stupid question.

 

So spare me the BS. Especially the "you know what, you're right..." because that is exactly what you're expecting us to do for you. I'm not even saying I think it's a great idea, just not as obviously stupid as you and some others are so quick to insist it is.

Edited December 7, 2012 by detlef

[skylive5]

Now hold the eff up! Dont pull that crap. You said that removing the kick-off would be horrible because you love the return. Then I reminded you that there'd still be a return because they're punting instead and you dismissed that as not worth mentioning. Following up that it is apparently so obvious that kick-offs are more exciting than punts that, apparently, I should have known before bothering you with such a stupid question.

 

So spare me the BS. Especially the "you know what, you're right..." because that is exactly what you're expecting us to do for you.

 

 

No, no... you are reading it wrong. Your agruments have made me change my mind and completely reverse my field of thought. Getting rid of the kickoff is a great idea whose time has come. In fact it is overdue. My big worry now is that people could/maybe/might get hurt on punt returns. Those need to be eliminated too don't ya think?

[detlef]

For the record, it doesn't appear that the 4th and 15 choice was that random. According to these articles, on-side kicks (when the other team is expecting them) are converted around 20%, which is about the same conversion rate for 4th and 15 (when the play happens outside the 20 yard line).

 

Onside kicks http://www.advancedn...side-kicks.html

4th down based on yards to go http://www.advancedn...udy-part-3.html

Edited December 7, 2012 by detlef

[detlef]

No, no... you are reading it wrong. Your agruments have made me change my mind and completely reverse my field of thought. Getting rid of the kickoff is a great idea whose time has come. In fact it is overdue. My big worry now is that people could/maybe/might get hurt on punt returns. Those need to be eliminated too don't ya think?

 

You're not good enough at being sarcastic for this to remain fun. I think you and I are done as far as this topic goes.

[tazinib1]

[skylive5]

You're not good enough at being sarcastic for this to remain fun. I think you and I are done as far as this topic goes.

 

 

Believe it or else.... I was not being sarcastic. I have never been any good at sarcasm. Your arguments were persuasive enough to get me to reconceptualize my take on this subject and I have come over to the side that wants the kickoffs eliminated.

[MnLefty]

For the record, it doesn't appear that the 4th and 15 choice was that random. According to these articles, on-side kicks (when the other team is expecting them) are converted around 20%, which is about the same conversion rate for 4th and 15 (when the play happens outside the 20 yard line).

 

Onside kicks http://www.advancedn...side-kicks.html

4th down based on yards to go http://www.advancedn...udy-part-3.html

 

 

I suspected it would be close, just didn't want to take the time to look for it. The one thing as has been stated that could get dicey is penalties, especially PI/def holding that give an automatic 1st down. On an onside kick there's no defensive penalty that automatically awards the ball to the kicking team... they can get another chance because of penalty, but ultimately they do have to RECOVER the kick to get the ball. Probably should be the same way on the proposed play... have to give yards for PI or holding to make for an easier conversion, but the offense still has to convert the 1st on their own.

[detlef]

I suspected it would be close, just didn't want to take the time to look for it. The one thing as has been stated that could get dicey is penalties, especially PI/def holding that give an automatic 1st down. On an onside kick there's no defensive penalty that automatically awards the ball to the kicking team... they can get another chance because of penalty, but ultimately they do have to RECOVER the kick to get the ball. Probably should be the same way on the proposed play... have to give yards for PI or holding to make for an easier conversion, but the offense still has to convert the 1st on their own.

 

That said, I assume fist down by virtue of penalty is covered in those numbers. So, if it's about the same rate as an on-side kick even when you include penalties that result in an automatic 1st down, then you could consider that a non-factor.

 

I'll say this; I admit that I was surprised to see that onside kicks are converted as often as 4th and 15.

Edited December 7, 2012 by detlef

[whomper]

why do I have a feeling that if this ever got passed Bellicheck would totally figure out how to master it to his advantage

[MTSuper7]

I admittedly didn't read the proposal at first. The idea of replacing a kickoff with a 4th and 15 is not a stupid idea, but it does present some problems which I'll get into in a moment. Before I do, I just want to know if there is evidence out there that suggests that a kickoff is a significantly more dangerous play than a punt to warrant this change. I understand the difference in how players are lined up and how that affects how they hit one another. But is a punt significantly safer?

 

As for the problems...

 

• Even though statistics might suggest that a 4th and 15 is statistically just as likely as converting a known onside kick attempt, I'd argue that the percentages are probably pretty even on a team by team basis for the onside kick (meaning no personnel / kicker would significantly enhance a team's chances of converting the onside kick). On the flip side, I'm guessing a team like the Packers would have a significant advantage in this 4th and 15 system vs. a team like the Chiefs. So league wide statistics really don't mean much as an argument in favor of this change.
  
• What about pre-snap penalties? I've never seen the receiving team get penalized prior to the kick during an onside kick attempt. But on punts, there are surely penalties on either team before the punt. Or even things like running into / roughing the punter. I know that the receiving team should be disciplined / avoid this items, but it bothers me that in this 4th and 15 punt scenario that a small chunk of the time, penalties might either significantly reduce the distance or outright turn the ball back to the team that just scored on the previous possession.
  
• Speaking of penalties, when a team does decide to go for it on 4th and 15, doesn't it seem lame that the defending/receiving team could get called for something like illegal contact, get penalized 5 yards and give the kicking team a 1st down? Do we really want to give the officials even more opportunity to influence the outcome of games?
  

 

If such a rule would ever be considered, it might work but would need some restrictions. Not sure exactly what, but here are some ideas:

• Each team only gets one "offense" opportunity per game and is required to have the punt team in punt formation otherwise. They can, however, run a fake anytime they want. Alternately, you could give a team unlimited "offense" opportunities, but each time they use one, the first down marker moves back 5 yards (so "onside" attempt #2 would be 4th and 20, but the play still
  
• Penalities on these plays can result in yardage awarded to either team, but penalties on these plays will never award the offensive team a first down. My only issues with this is that it may incent the defense to commit a penalty to avoid an easy 4th down conversion (kind of like how in baskeball you'll see players commit fouls when they are on a fastbreak to keep the easy layup from happening) and it also gives the officials a little more influence in game outcome. Still, I'd think the impact would be minimal.
  
• Penalty yardage is treated in the same way on the 4th and 15 play as it is in goalline situations. In other words, treat the first down line like the goal line, so any penalties that are longer would be "half the distance to the first down line" instead of the full distance. To discourage a team from committing multiple penalties on 4th and short yardage, have a "three penalties in a row is an automatic first down for the offensive team" rule (or something like that). Maybe just two penalties in a row. Or maybe after the first penalty, revert to regular penalty rules which could award a first down and can go for a full 15 yards or to a spot downfield for pass interference.
  
• Punts should be allowed to go out of bounds on the "kickoff" punt without penalty since they aren't penalized normally.
  
• If you're doing all of this, move the spot back to the 35 yard line.
  

 

I still don't like the fact that teams with a better offense have an advantage, as these are supposed to be special teams plays.

[detlef]

On the radio this morning they did mention some data that said kickoffs have the most injuries per play. So yes, it is apparently the case.

 

I've had the same concern about you regarding it being easier for some than others. Then again some teams take special teams more seriously than others. Do we know, for instance that onside conversion rates are more consistent from team to team than 4th and 15 rates?

 

 

[Joessfl]

So, we're going to miss....Touchdown, extra point, commercial, commercial, commercial, commercial, kick off, touchback, commercial, commercial, commercial, commercial? Sign me up.

 

Unless they move the kickoff back to the 30, the kickoff is mostly a big fat waste of time right now.

 

 

On the other hand...I was waiting for teams to adjust when they moved the kickoff up and all the kickoffs were = guaranteed touchbacks. Coaches were not really adjusting the kicker to hold back a bit on the kick to try to pin the opposition to the 3-5 yard line and force the other team to try for the 20 yards.

[stevegrab]

My first thought was about onside kicks but I guess that gets countered by the fact that the kicking team gets the ball with a chance to keep it if they complete a 15 yard play. This is a head shaker for sure. Since they moved up the kicking starting point you dont see a lot of returns anyway but still. This suggestion is a dagger to the purists. Id hate to see it implemented

 

 

I would think converting a 4th & 15 play is easier than recovering an onside kick. It would also be harder to do as a surprise, since an onside kick usually has the same players and formation, but theres a big difference between the punt team and offense.

 

I understand the player safety angle, but eliminating kickoffs just seems crazy.

 

ETA: I've now seen the stats posted here, still have other issues with the surprise factor, potential penalties etc.

 

If the NFL does this will every other competitive football (starting with Pop Warner through high school and college) eliminate kickoffs as well?

Edited December 7, 2012 by stevegrab

[detlef]

I would think converting a 4th & 15 play is easier than recovering an onside kick. It would also be harder to do as a surprise, since an onside kick usually has the same players and formation, but theres a big difference between the punt team and offense.

 

I understand the player safety angle, but eliminating kickoffs just seems crazy.

 

I would to, but that's apparently not the case. The odds of both a mid-field 4th and 15 and an onside kick that the other team is expecting are both around 20%. As far as doing it as a surprise, you could always line up for a punt and fake it.

[stevegrab]

I would to, but that's apparently not the case. The odds of both a mid-field 4th and 15 and an onside kick that the other team is expecting are both around 20%. As far as doing it as a surprise, you could always line up for a punt and fake it.

 

 

As I pointed out in another post, big difference in trying to do the surprise 4th & 15 play vs. a surprise onside kick, particularly with the personnel on the field (unless you're going to have your punter run that fake play, as opposed to your actual offense).

 

 

Would the Saints have been able to run that crazy surprise onside kick to open the second half of their SB? (Not ready to say they lose if they cannot do that, but it surely affects that game.)

Edited December 7, 2012 by stevegrab

[detlef]

As I pointed out in another post, big difference in trying to do the surprise 4th & 15 play vs. a surprise onside kick, particularly with the personnel on the field (unless you're going to have your punter run that fake play, as opposed to your actual offense).

 

 

Would the Saints have been able to run that crazy surprise onside kick to open the second half of their SB? (Not ready to say they lose if they cannot do that, but it surely affects that game.)

 

And as I pointed out, you could line up to punt but do a fake. Now, 15 yards may be an ambitious number to pick up on a fake punt as, the longer the conversion, the more time the return team has to realize that they're not the return team, they're still the D. So, that could be a thorn in that side.

[Thews40]

If we don't have a kickoff, how will we see the little the little monkeys run?

 

 

I realize change is sometimes bad, but I like it.