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Throwing on first and goal


HowboutthemCowboys
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It seems to me that there's a TON of this this season. I don't get it...and on top of that it seems about 90% of the time after an incompletion, the next play is a stuffed run. Not only that but the passes are often to a tackle or a fullback ....w t f

 

Does everyone think they're Drew Brees? What ever happened to handing the ball off a few times?

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It seems to me that there's a TON of this this season. I don't get it...and on top of that it seems about 90% of the time after an incompletion, the next play is a stuffed run. Not only that but the passes are often to a tackle or a fullback ....w t f

 

Does everyone think they're Drew Brees? What ever happened to handing the ball off a few times?

This is not our father's NFL
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I've never liked it. Shows a lack of toughness, IMO. If you can't get a yard your team isn't that good. Used to drive me nuts that the Colts couldn't/wouldn't run the ball for a yard with Peyton.

Edited by CaptainHook
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I've never liked it. Shows a lack of toughness, IMO. If you can't get a yard your team isn't that good. Used to drive me nuts that the Colts couldn't/wouldn't run the ball for a yard with Peyton.

 

exactly.

 

plus you have QB's yelling who the mike is, goin with hard count, guys false starting....you're at the freakin 2, snap the ball and run someone over..

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I've never liked it. Shows a lack of toughness, IMO. If you can't get a yard your team isn't that good. Used to drive me nuts that the Colts couldn't/wouldn't run the ball for a yard with Peyton.

 

 

This.

1st and goal from inside the 5? Pound the rock 3 times - if you can't score that way, you aren't very good.

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I forget the debate, I think it was the one about going for it on 4th down that was waged recently. At any rate, while following the links in that story, I came across a similar study that basically showed that teams don't run nearly as often as they should in these cases. That, statistically speaking, the chance of scoring a TD in goal to go situations, even ones where 1st down is outside the 5 are significantly higher if the team pounds the rock.

 

Honestly, it does amaze me that, given how complex and analytical the game has gotten. Given how many specialists and assistant coaches there are involved, they don't take advantage of this sort of thing more. I mean, it's right freaking there.

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Favor....the greatest QB to ever grace this earth made an art of throwing short passes for TD's. 137 of them to exact.

 

5 yards - 23

4 yards - 30

3 yards - 22

2 yards - 25

1 yards - 37

 

And a total of 224 from the 10 and in. That is a good percentage of his total TD passes.

 

So throwing inside the 5 instead of running it is not anything new and not out of the norm from my point of view.

 

These stats mean nothing in isolation. 137 TDs out of how many opportunities? How many times did he fail to convert? Would the conversion rate have been better or worse had they simply pounded the ball until 4th down instead.

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I hear those of you saying teams should run the ball when in tight. I think it does have a big effect if you can impose your will on a defense. Now, that said, teams today are often looking for the most efficient way to score points without getting anyone hurt. Hence, more throwing all over the field (including on 1st and Goal) than there used to be.

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This.

1st and goal from inside the 5? Pound the rock 3 times - if you can't score that way, you aren't very good.

 

Pretty much this.

 

My son, who just completed his first season for the school teams, watches a lot of football with me on TV...unfortunately, most of it is the Eagles. We have laughed (sic cried) ourselves silly watching Michael Vick turn the ball over inside the 5-yard line this year, either by throwing a pick or fumbling.

 

Too many times he looks at me and asks "Does Andy really believe that an All-Pro RB like McCoy can't gain 5 yards on 4 carries?"

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Too many times he looks at me and asks "Does Andy really believe that an All-Pro RB like McCoy can't gain 5 yards on 4 carries?"

 

 

smart kid. seems like watching redzone every week you almost predict who's gonna run and who's gonna pass, AP and Foster are the only 2 who it seems get it religiously.

 

and I don't mean to say never throw in this situation...I get it. just seems like OC's are outsmarting theirselves game after game

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I get the general point here but first and goal could be anything from less than a yard to a full 10 yards. Plenty of teams in this league are having trouble converting short yardage plays with the run, so it makes perfect sense to throw in these situations. A lot of teams have little chance of getting 2.5-3 yards per run inside the 10, especially against a decent defense. So why should they run just to satisfy people that think passing TDs are lame?

 

Heck look at how many teams throw the ball on 3rd and 3 or less, its a passing league, and much easier to get those few yards by passing for many teams than running.

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I get the general point here but first and goal could be anything from less than a yard to a full 10 yards. Plenty of teams in this league are having trouble converting short yardage plays with the run, so it makes perfect sense to throw in these situations. A lot of teams have little chance of getting 2.5-3 yards per run inside the 10, especially against a decent defense. So why should they run just to satisfy people that think passing TDs are lame?

 

Heck look at how many teams throw the ball on 3rd and 3 or less, its a passing league, and much easier to get those few yards by passing for many teams than running.

 

 

This, and it's also a chess match, where it's gotta be maddening thinning "well, I know that they know that I want to run the ball here, so...".

 

Not every team has the personnel at O-line and runningback to just be able to run successfully when it's predictable that they're going to. I know the Falcons have struggled with this, most recently against the Saints where like the Giants playoff game last year they failed to convert on three straight runs in short-yardage.

 

What OC Koeter discovered is that they've actually been more efficient at 3rd and longs than at short-yardage, so to maybe play it like they're third and long?

 

I mean, especially when your line is already having trouble opening holes and getting a good push in short-yardage, then doing it in predictable situations isn't going to help anything. You have to play to your strengths, and if you have a great QB and passing game (which can allow for less predictability as well, when you force the defense to spread out, rather than stack the box), then why would you not go with what gives you your best chance to punch it in there?

 

In the case of the Broncos, they've all of the sudden trusted Moreno to take all the carries, but they obviously might have a lot mroe trust in Manning at the goal-line than Moreno in a situation where the box is likely to get stacked on him (unlike the rest of the field, where the defense is almost forced to spread out to respect Manning).

 

What better way to keep defenses from just biting on the run in these situations, than by establishing a threat through the air at the goalline?

Edited by delusions of grandeur
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