Jump to content
[[Template core/front/custom/_customHeader is throwing an error. This theme may be out of date. Run the support tool in the AdminCP to restore the default theme.]]

The "When to draft a QB" debate


wpayers
 Share

Recommended Posts

I remain alive in just one league (1 of 5) and that's with Brees (drafted Rd 1.10 of a 12 league standard) at QB. As with many teams still playing this roster was really carried by mid-round picks and waiver adds (Chi Dst, Martin, Morris, Wayne, Cobb, Reese, Shorts); but realistically, Brees was a major factor.

 

My other teams now out of the running had Big Ben (Rd 7), Stafford (Rd 3), Flacco (Rd 8) and Eli (Rd 6) at QB.

 

I almost never draft a QB in the first round but I could not pass up Brees at 1.10. So in retrospect was going against "waiting for a QB" the right strategy or was I just lucky having Brees fall into lap?

 

Points to ponder:

 

- In the NFL finding QB diamonds in the late round rough is rare, Granted, there are more 1st round busts than late finds (Brady rd 7 in 2000 and Romo undrafted in 2003) but how many NFL teams in need of a QB say "Let's wait until after the 6 or 7 round"?

 

- Cam's ADP in 2011 was approximately 150 and RGIII fell to 79 this year. Both were well worth the wait for their wise (lucky) FF owners.

 

Beyond stating the obvious that the NFL is different than FF, what does it all mean?

 

Is it better to wait for a QB in FF? Or the ever popular "it depends how the draft goes" answer?

 

Thought???

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm in the finals to win one league and in 1st with a pretty comfortable lead in a BOTH draft-only points league. I failed to make the play-offs in my other 3.

 

In the league I'm in the finals, Brees effing carried us. We were at the 8/9 spot in a 8 team league and limped along with decent but not great RBs (CJ, T Rich, BGE, and waiver chum) and a pretty nice stable or WRs (AJ, Julio, Decker, Crabtree). Remember, this is an 8 team league, so everyone's got studs.

 

In the pts league that I should win, I waited and took the committee approach with Rivers, Palmer, and Dalton. Of course, the fact that this was a best-ball league had something to do with that. I felt that format cheapened the position more because I figured one of the differences between 1st and 2nd/3rd tier QBs was consistency. Something this format would mitigate.

 

My worst squad I took Stafford at 15 (2 QB league). The odds-on favorite to win waited and took Dalton and RG II.

 

My best non-play-off squad (bad breaks but high pts scored), I laid off and took Luck and Freeman in round 8 and 9 in another 2 QB league). I think I was the last guy to take a QB and many had 2 by then (again, 2 QB league).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I took Brady 1.6 and am in the finals. The consensus top 3 backs were off the board, as well as Brees and Rodgers....not high on a wr in the first round so didn't take Calvin, and then Mjd went pick after me....I am in the finals against team w Calvin and he is stacked.

 

Brady has absolutely carried my team, since my top 2 drafted rbs were turner and Fred Jackson. Luckily grabbed spiller too, so he's been my rb1. Leshoure also has helped but my rb2 has def been my weakest link, and will cause me headaches this week as I debate between turner and leshoure.

 

Andre Johnson has been huge for me, and gronk too before he went down. Luckily grabbed witten in a cheap trade while he struggled early this year.

 

I think it's mostly a matter of chance. I took qb first and waited way too long for rbs but end up in the finals. One guy in my league picked rice Murray Charles and he didn't make the playoffs. Other guy w foster McFadden also didn't make playoffs. In a year where you supposedly had to get a rb early it didn't seem to be successful in my league.

 

My opponent went Calvin cam also, so it's hit or miss really. Somehow I knocked off the owner who went Brees Julio ap. team was stacked. But that is FF

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am trying to decide about this very question. Depending on the league scoring and such, I have different strategies but in most leagues I wait to get a QB. My 13-0 SOFA Auction team (since 13-1) had only Weeden, Foles and Henne as my QBs and led the league in total points. I got in a bind there admittedly since I paid so much for other positions. I scrambled for QB all year long and maybe it finally hurt me.

 

My teams with Brees did well but that was a six point passing TD.

 

If you only get 3 pts pass TDs or ever 4 pt with a negative for an interception, right now there is only about 50 points separating the #1 (Drew Brees 367) and the #10 (Tony Romo - 312) which works out to about 3 points per game. You get more consistency with top QBs but we did not have difference making QBs as we did last year When it was #1 (Brees - 472) and #10 (Sanchez - 324) where the difference was three times as great. Last year you lost 100 points between #1 and #6.

 

I always do a LAG anaylsis on every league to see what the decline in points are for each position in that scoring. Generally, a six point TD means I get one early and 3 or 4 pt means I get one late.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Concur with DMD, league scoring makes a difference. I play in 2 leagues, one where QBs are awarded 6-pts for TDs (same as RBs and WRs) and another where QBs are awarded 4-pts. In the 6-pt leagues, QBs dominate, so if you don't have one putting up multiple TDs per game, you're already at a disadvantage. In the 4-pt leagues, the QBs have a harder time separating themselves from top RBs and WRs, so I try to stack up on RBs.

 

Case-in-point, I made the championship in the latter by grabbing Foster, AJ Green, Lynch, and Richardson with my first 4 picks and letting Romo slide to the 7th or 8th round before grabbing a QB. I think it can work either way, but league scoring should be a factor, in addition to value-based drafting and separation into tiers. If you're sacrificing points at QB, you need to make it up at other positions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am trying to decide about this very question. Depending on the league scoring and such, I have different strategies but in most leagues I wait to get a QB. My 13-0 SOFA Auction team (since 13-1) had only Weeden, Foles and Henne as my QBs and led the league in total points. I got in a bind there admittedly since I paid so much for other positions. I scrambled for QB all year long and maybe it finally hurt me.

 

My teams with Brees did well but that was a six point passing TD.

 

If you only get 3 pts pass TDs or ever 4 pt with a negative for an interception, right now there is only about 50 points separating the #1 (Drew Brees 367) and the #10 (Tony Romo - 312) which works out to about 3 points per game. You get more consistency with top QBs but we did not have difference making QBs as we did last year When it was #1 (Brees - 472) and #10 (Sanchez - 324) where the difference was three times as great. Last year you lost 100 points between #1 and #6.

 

I always do a LAG anaylsis on every league to see what the decline in points are for each position in that scoring. Generally, a six point TD means I get one early and 3 or 4 pt means I get one late.

 

Excellent point oh wise one....I selected Brees at 1.10 due to the 6pt TD scoring.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In the SB in my local league. I took Rodgers @ 1.3 but let's face it he did'nt light it up this year like he did last year. I hit on Martin, Marshall, Vincent Jackson. Traded Leshoure 5 minutes after the draft for Alfred Morris and traded around week 4 for Gore.

 

In my 16 team BOTH I waited and drafted Rivers and Fitzpatrick who of course did'nt do me any favors all season. I snuck into playoffs and lost in the 1st rd.

 

Keeper BOTH I took Peyton in the mid rounds and lost in the 1st rd. I had a decent team,Peyton, Foster, Welker, Amendola, Witten..

 

Other local took Rodgers in the 1st and missed playoffs.

 

 

The only thing I learned from this is, it really does'nt matter...you've gotta hit on the mid round picks, work the wire and get lucky.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It depends on league scoring and set up.

 

I'm a staunch advocate for waiting on a QB in most "traditional" leagues.

 

In Huddle California league, with 6 point passing TDs and graduated PPR (less points for RB and WR catches, more for TEs) and a very flexible lineup, my strategy was to get the best possible QB and TE I could early on. I took Brees in the 1st and Gronk in the 2nd.

 

I ended up hitting on some value picks - Marshall in 3rd, Charles in 4th, McGahee in 6th. I've ridden a multi TE set most of the year. Made it to the title game.

 

 

In MSHB, an 18 team IDP league, we had a rule limiting teams to 1 QB on the roster. I believe I was the last team to draft a QB, taking Josh Freeman in the 24th round (I would have waited longer, but as the draft ran long and into week one of the season, I was forced to draft a QB and kicker in order to fill out a starting lineup). I then played QB roulette, picking up Andy Dalton starting in week 5, then Weeden in week 8, then Luck in week 10, whom I have ridden to the title game.

 

My other BOTH leagues are keeper leagues so different dynamic, my non-BOTH redraft, I drafted Freeman relatively late (I believe 9th or 10th round of 16 round draft) and essentially used him every week and made the semifinals, losing last week.

 

 

So, for me I yet again had great success waiting on a QB in relatively standard leagues and in the one with slightly modified rules my analysis of past performance and my projections and doing the value analysis I've talked about many times in previous posts led me to target a QB very early.

 

 

The TL;DR version - it depends on league setup. Do your value analysis to determine when to target certain positions

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In the SB in my local league. I took Rodgers @ 1.3 but let's face it he did'nt light it up this year like he did last year. I hit on Martin, Marshall, Vincent Jackson. Traded Leshoure 5 minutes after the draft for Alfred Morris and traded around week 4 for Gore.

 

In my 16 team BOTH I waited and drafted Rivers and Fitzpatrick who of course did'nt do me any favors all season. I snuck into playoffs and lost in the 1st rd.

 

Keeper BOTH I took Peyton in the mid rounds and lost in the 1st rd. I had a decent team,Peyton, Foster, Welker, Amendola, Witten..

 

Other local took Rodgers in the 1st and missed playoffs.

 

 

The only thing I learned from this is, it really does'nt matter...you've gotta hit on the mid round picks, work the wire and get lucky.

 

 

Truer words have never been spoken...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I still think the market, more than anything ultimately decides this.

 

Hell, take one of my leagues. As luck (or rather lack thereof) would have it, I didn't make the play-offs but my roster was stacked. At any rate, this was a 2 QB league with 6 pts for passing TDs. If there were ever a reason to grab a QB early, it was this one. However, by pick 5, where I was, 3 QBs plus Ray Rice were off the board. I couldn't pass on Foster. By the time it came back around, 3-5 more had gone, so I went Julio Jones. Same thing kept happening and every time it got to me, any QB I'd consider taking and plenty who I wouldn't have at that pick were gone, so I just kept on grabbing the RBs and WRs that were, thus, falling.

 

Eventually, of course, everyone had to start grabbing RBs and WRs, so the QB frenzy stopped and I still managed Luck and Freeman at 8/9. But this was after getting Foster, Julio, Forte, Sproles, Jordy Nelson, A Hernandez, and MJD. (2 flex, btw).

 

Now, as it happened, I was a freaking MASH unit by mid-season, but I wouldn't have done it any differently had I to do it over again. You can't argue that, given what we knew at the beginning of September, you wouldn't have been thrilled to walk away from a draft with those guys.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In my ten team I went brady gronk Andre and am in the title game. In my 12 team I liked my team a lot more but ended up as one of the worst records in the league: roster included Matt Ryan, McFadden, Murray, Julio, jordy, cook, bjge, McGahee...went McFadden 1.12 then Murray and my team stunk due to so many injuries

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Truth is, you need a QB that can put up points if you're going to contend.

 

I had second pick overall this year and took Foster. I made the championship because I was able to get Matt Ryan a couple rounds later. Foster plus Ryan was better than most other QB/RB1 tandems in my league.

If I didn't get Ryan, then I'm an idiot for passing on Rodgers/Brees/Brady.

Because I did get Ryan, I'm a genius and playing for money this weekend.

I will always take the "sure thing" at RB, then QB, then WR.

The only sure thing RB that didn't work out this year was McCoy. I blame the Eagles.

 

I'm not saying Matt Ryan is the best, but if I wasn't able to scoop up someone of that caliber in the mid rounds then I doubt I would be where I am this weekend.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Truth is, you need a QB that can put up points if you're going to contend.

 

I had second pick overall this year and took Foster. I made the championship because I was able to get Matt Ryan a couple rounds later. Foster plus Ryan was better than most other QB/RB1 tandems in my league.

If I didn't get Ryan, then I'm an idiot for passing on Rodgers/Brees/Brady.

Because I did get Ryan, I'm a genius and playing for money this weekend.

I will always take the "sure thing" at RB, then QB, then WR.

The only sure thing RB that didn't work out this year was McCoy. I blame the Eagles.

 

I'm not saying Matt Ryan is the best, but if I wasn't able to scoop up someone of that caliber in the mid rounds then I doubt I would be where I am this weekend.

 

Or Luck, or RGIII, or Payton...

 

Hell, even Stafford, who was basically thought of as a bust (but, yes, because of where you'd have to have taken him) only averaged 1.5 pts per week less than Ryan.

 

Dalton, a guy you could have grabbed plenty late, was just 2 pts off.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

League size has big role in this discussion too. In my 12 team, you either need to grab a QB in the first 4 rounds or wait a really long time. I ended up grabbing Big Ben in the 9th and added Kaep off waivers when Ben went down. I got knocked out last week by who I think is clearly the best team, who has Dalton as his only QB. He will be going against the team with Cam for the title and I will be playing the team with Luck (Vick was who he drafted to start) for 3rd. The Dalton team is stacked with AP, TRich, Ridley, and AJ Green. The teams with Brees, Brady, and Rogers all failed to make the playoffs.

 

In my 10 team league, I got Manning in the 6th round, but Ryan could have been had as late as 8th. Romo and RGIII went in the 10th and Luck in the 14th. In that league, my feeling is that you either grab one of the top 3 in the mid-late first round or you wait until at least the 6th. I am playing the Rodgers team for the title and the two teams playing for third sport Cam and Ryan. The Rogers guy grabbed Gore in 4th and Ridley in the 7th, which has more or less carried him.

 

In my 12 team, it is very difficult to grab a serviceable QB off the wire or trade for a good one. In my 10 team, you can always find a serviceable QB on the wire and you can't get rid of a good one via trade. The guy with Cam also has RGIII and he couldn't move either one all season because no one would pay fair value because QB's just aren't as valuable in a 10 team league.

 

As said by others, it all depends on the flow of the draft, but it also depends on the psychology of the league. It is crucial to understand these tendencies and trends on draft day when deciding when to take a QB.

Edited by BA Baracus
Link to comment
Share on other sites

In the SB in my local league. I took Rodgers @ 1.3 but let's face it he did'nt light it up this year like he did last year. I hit on Martin, Marshall, Vincent Jackson. Traded Leshoure 5 minutes after the draft for Alfred Morris and traded around week 4 for Gore.

 

In my 16 team BOTH I waited and drafted Rivers and Fitzpatrick who of course did'nt do me any favors all season. I snuck into playoffs and lost in the 1st rd.

 

Keeper BOTH I took Peyton in the mid rounds and lost in the 1st rd. I had a decent team,Peyton, Foster, Welker, Amendola, Witten..

 

Other local took Rodgers in the 1st and missed playoffs.

 

 

The only thing I learned from this is, it really does'nt matter...you've gotta hit on the mid round picks, work the wire and get lucky.

 

 

+1

Link to comment
Share on other sites

While I understand the benefits of waiting on a QB - I tend to be terrible at picking match-ups, so it just hasn't been a strategy that's worked well for me. The years that it has worked were when I usually got lucky with a QB off the ww (Cam two years ago).

 

Most of the leagues I play in have 6 pt TDs so QBs go early. I usually don't take a QB in the first or second round - but I'm often grabbing the last guy I feel comfortable with as an every week starter in the 3rd or 4th (this year it was Matt Ryan). I might not be maximizing value in terms of the pick - but I feel like I've lost more of the years always picking the wrong guy when playing match-ups.

 

It seems like next year they're are going to be a lot of younger QBs who have proven themselves - RGIII, Luck, Wilson, Kaepernick... so I bet a lot of people will tend to wait longer on the position.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In the SB in my local league. I took Rodgers @ 1.3 but let's face it he did'nt light it up this year like he did last year. I hit on Martin, Marshall, Vincent Jackson. Traded Leshoure 5 minutes after the draft for Alfred Morris and traded around week 4 for Gore.

 

In my 16 team BOTH I waited and drafted Rivers and Fitzpatrick who of course did'nt do me any favors all season. I snuck into playoffs and lost in the 1st rd.

 

Keeper BOTH I took Peyton in the mid rounds and lost in the 1st rd. I had a decent team,Peyton, Foster, Welker, Amendola, Witten..

 

Other local took Rodgers in the 1st and missed playoffs.

 

 

The only thing I learned from this is, it really does'nt matter...you've gotta hit on the mid round picks, work the wire and get lucky.

This. 100%

 

Whatever strategy/theory (or lack thereof) an owner subscribes to, it all comes down to hitting with the players he acquires. QB early will work if you pick the right one. QB late will work if you pick the right one. QB somewhere in between will work if you get the right one. Loading up on RB early can work. Waiting on RB can work. And so on. Its about getting the right players so much more than when or for how much, IMO.

 

Now, that all said, utilizing a strategy that includes knowing which players score the most points and maximizing value greatly increase an owner's chances of accomplishing the above. There are certainly no guarantees, though, and luck does play a factor. You can absolutely dominate your draft/auction and leave with a team that is hands-down a favorite to crush a league and it can all go sideways Week 1 if you lose a couple players to injury. Or suspension. Or a monsoon hits the stadium. Etc, etc.

 

Chit happens

Edited by Delicious_bass
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I always wait. I'm in 2 championship games in redrafts. In both I took Ryan in round 6 or 7 but I'm loaded at WR and RB because I did not use an early pick on a QB and have to chase WR and RB the rest of the way

That is a steal. No way he would have lasted that long in the league I own him in. In fact, I had to take him at 3.2 (26) because I know for a fact he would not have made it back to me at 4.11 (47).
Link to comment
Share on other sites

That is a steal. No way he would have lasted that long in the league I own him in. In fact, I had to take him at 3.2 (26) because I know for a fact he would not have made it back to me at 4.11 (47).

 

 

True - with Ryan, he was a hot sleeper pick early on - so owners that took the advice of this site and one of the other main fantasy sites that were really high on Ryan were getting him in leagues that drafted earlier (say early August or so) in the 6th or 7th or even later rounds, before the more casual fantasy players caught on. By the time late August, early September hit, we was often the 4th or 5th QB taken as early as the late 2nd, usually mid 3rd in most leagues.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

The only thing I learned from this is, it really does'nt matter...you've gotta hit on the mid round picks, work the wire and get lucky.

 

 

Truth here.

 

I had a bad year all around. I failed to make the playoffs in seven out of eight leagues. I was DEAD LAST in a 32 teams BOTH league (WOW) and my next best finish was 5th place (lost H2H for a WC here).

 

My only playoff team won the Championship yesterday. I took Rivers too early (homer goggles... And this screwed my season in most of the other leagues) with Sanchez as backup. I worked the WW hard all year for plug and play starters at QB and started Kaepernick yesterday.

 

For some reason, this was the only team (and longest league played in) I really bothered to manage wholeheartedly as well. Off of FA wire I grabbed Morris, Ballard, Garçon, Crabtree and Alexander (though he almost killed me last week in round one and I won by 0.72 points to the highest scoring/best record #1 seed. He was pissed). The team I beat yesterday had Foster and AP as running backs and was second highest scoring.

 

I won two games where I was third lowest and second lowest points scored for those weeks! I had lowest PA and was only 7th in PF. I was the wild card (12 Team, 3 divisions, having beat the other three teams I was tied with by a total of 7 points. If either of two of those teams had lost the week before, I would have lost my WC to either of those winners. It was very tight grouping as far as records this year) In truth, my team caught fire over the last few weeks and was a higher scoring team when it mattered most.

 

My mid-round was solid, I hit big time on FAs and got VERY lucky in this league. To the point where some of the guys are razzing me about "not deserving it". :cool:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information