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NFCCG: SF @ Atl


Bier Meister
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Bier, when a QB has 4 games in a row below 60% completion percentage, to me that's a trend, and it's reasonable to think that he completed more passes before defenses had film on him.

 

As for fumbles not counting because they're recovered, really? It's not like he planned for the ball to bounce to where his players could recover it, so I've never understood why we hold INTs to a higher standard just because your team doesn't have the opportunity to recover. It's still the QB making a mistake and having to have his team try to bail him out.

 

As for the defense, I never said I'm not impressed with them, that unit is filled with talent. I just said that they haven't been as dominant lately, letting up scores, and so will need Smith as much as the Falcons need Abraham. If you notice, Aldon Smith's production has hurt worse than anyone with the other Smith hurt, IIRC no sacks since the injury.

 

I don't mean any of this to take the Niners lightly, but I just see plenty of reasons why this game will come down to execution, not just a "better" team.

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Bier, when a QB has 4 games in a row below 60% completion percentage, to me that's a trend, and it's reasonable to think that he completed more passes before defenses had film on him.

 

well, they didn't exactly end the season playing tbb twice, nos, car, and det

 

As for fumbles not counting because they're recovered, really? It's not like he planned for the ball to bounce to where his players could recover it, so I've never understood why we hold INTs to a higher standard just because your team doesn't have the opportunity to recover. It's still the QB making a mistake and having to have his team try to bail him out.

 

you stated he turned the ball over 12 times. that's not the case. everyone wants to protect the ball, but a "sack" is better than a TO.

 

As for the defense, I never said I'm not impressed with them, that unit is filled with talent. I just said that they haven't been as dominant lately, letting up scores, and so will need Smith as much as the Falcons need Abraham. If you notice, Aldon Smith's production has hurt worse than anyone with the other Smith hurt, IIRC no sacks since the injury.

 

i am well aware of justin's impact on the defense. i think you are forgetting that some of those higher scores have been in games where the 49ers had large leads. kap is generating more pts (and in reference to the article...are scoring from outside of the red zone).

 

I don't mean any of this to take the Niners lightly, but I just see plenty of reasons why this game will come down to execution, not just a "better" team.

 

Edited by Bier Meister
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QBR? You mean that BS system that ESPN created to make Tebow look like a good QB?

 

I'm not sure that his yards per attempt being better than Newton means alot, when he's barely cracked 250 yards only twice and his completion percentage has settled around 50% in the last 4 games, even though outside of the Green Bay game he hasn't been making up for that yardage with his legs either.

 

The New England game was about the only one he's really impressed me as a passer (though after watching the highlights, I'd attribute it just as much to the defense setting them up with good field position, and Crabtree making a big move at the end).

 

Let's not forget fumbles either, which makes for 12 turnovers to 10 TDs.

 

Not saying Kaepernick can't have a great day against the Falcons, but you have to admit that he still has a lot to learn about being an NFL QB and pressure situations like he'll face Sunday. We'll see if he's ready...

 

Um, I point out a number of stats, yds per attempt, TDs/game, INTs/game, complettion percentage, and not surprisingly (since all those likely factor in it) QB rating. And you focus on the last?

 

Listen, I'm not saying that K is way better than Newton. I'm just disputing your shabby attempt at an argument that teams would fear Newton more as a passer than they do K. I mean, if that's the case, you'd think it would be because he's better at it, right? At least more prolific? Right? But, apparently, the only way he's "better" is that he tosses it around enough more to account for 8 more yards per game despite getting less per attempt.

 

My whole argument has been as follows. K and Newton are the same kind of QB (something both their physical stature, stats, and style of offense all very much bear out). I should also mention that it's not like I'm the only guy paying attention to make this comparison.

 

Now, like I said the first time I brought this up (over at scramble) that K is either better than Newton or simply Newton on a better team. Hell, I'm not even saying that the Niners wouldn't be better if they had Newton. I'm just saying, the Niners are a better team than the Panthers and have a QB that is very similar. So, given that, if there's a team that had troubles with Newton and Carolina, it's safe to say they'd have at least as much trouble with K and SF.

 

Still with me? Because I'm really not out on much of a limb so far. So, if you already disagree, that would be the irony of ironies considering all the pissing and moaning you've done about "the haters can't be convinced" with respect to your Falcons. Hell, I haven't even gotten to the Falcons yet.

 

So, this QB who is very much similar to K on a team that I don't think anyone would argue is not as good as SF, gave ATL fits this year. Nearly beating them in their own crib when they looked like crap vs almost anyone else. I mean, look at their offensive production: 10 pts vs Tampa, 35 pts vs NO (who couldn't stop anyone and allowed at least 24 pts to everyone they faced though week 8), 7 pts vs Giants, 28 pts vs ATL, 12 pts vs Seattle, 14 vs Dallas. Dude, people were jumping off the Newton/Carolina bandwagon in batches. But one of the two games they actually moved the ball in was against you guys. And then they dropped 30 later in the season with, again, Newton putting up one of his best games of the season. Though, in fairness, they were looking better in general when they ran you out of their building down the stretch.

 

Oh, and as far as your "bend but not break" deal"? I think a more accurate description of allowing 3 TDs and 3 FGs, especially in a game that you were not at all competitive in would be "bend and break".

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Um, I point out a number of stats, yds per attempt, TDs/game, INTs/game, complettion percentage, and not surprisingly (since all those likely factor in it) QB rating. And you focus on the last?

 

Listen, I'm not saying that K is way better than Newton. I'm just disputing your shabby attempt at an argument that teams would fear Newton more as a passer than they do K. I mean, if that's the case, you'd think it would be because he's better at it, right? At least more prolific? Right? But, apparently, the only way he's "better" is that he tosses it around enough more to account for 8 more yards per game despite getting less per attempt.

 

My whole argument has been as follows. K and Newton are the same kind of QB (something both their physical stature, stats, and style of offense all very much bear out). I should also mention that it's not like I'm the only guy paying attention to make this comparison.

 

Now, like I said the first time I brought this up (over at scramble) that K is either better than Newton or simply Newton on a better team. Hell, I'm not even saying that the Niners wouldn't be better if they had Newton. I'm just saying, the Niners are a better team than the Panthers and have a QB that is very similar. So, given that, if there's a team that had troubles with Newton and Carolina, it's safe to say they'd have at least as much trouble with K and SF.

 

Still with me? Because I'm really not out on much of a limb so far. So, if you already disagree, that would be the irony of ironies considering all the pissing and moaning you've done about "the haters can't be convinced" with respect to your Falcons. Hell, I haven't even gotten to the Falcons yet.

 

So, this QB who is very much similar to K on a team that I don't think anyone would argue is not as good as SF, gave ATL fits this year. Nearly beating them in their own crib when they looked like crap vs almost anyone else. I mean, look at their offensive production: 10 pts vs Tampa, 35 pts vs NO (who couldn't stop anyone and allowed at least 24 pts to everyone they faced though week 8), 7 pts vs Giants, 28 pts vs ATL, 12 pts vs Seattle, 14 vs Dallas. Dude, people were jumping off the Newton/Carolina bandwagon in batches. But one of the two games they actually moved the ball in was against you guys. And then they dropped 30 later in the season with, again, Newton putting up one of his best games of the season. Though, in fairness, they were looking better in general when they ran you out of their building down the stretch.

 

Oh, and as far as your "bend but not break" deal"? I think a more accurate description of allowing 3 TDs and 3 FGs, especially in a game that you were not at all competitive in would be "bend and break".

 

 

Dude, we've had a good back and forth here and made our points, so don't go back to the piling on over respect when I've tried to stick purely to the matchup here.

 

And my point was that it was the Falcons offense, not defense that broke that second game, the defense did well to keep them in it through the half considering they were left on the field all game. I remember reading on the Panthers board, that they were really nervous at half time to not be up as much as they should have been, considering the offense didn't show up while they were moving the ball well.

 

.. And all the buzz before and after that game was that they had bulletin board material over Ryan saying "get the f' off my field" the first time, so if you want to talk about why this was not only an anomaly for Cam but for the Falcons, I'd point to the heated divisional rivalry with the Panthers losing a lot of hard-fought games to the Falcons.

 

But I'm not trying to make too many excuses, just saying that even at their worst games against Cam, there was plenty of silver lining if they actually show up for 4 quarters this time.

 

And yes, after Cam's rookie year throwing for over 4,000 yards, I'd say that his sophomore slump doesn't really change the fact that he can be a true dual-threat QB. I know Kaepernick can be too, but outside of making some deep throws, he still has plenty to learn about being a great passing QB too.

Edited by delusions of grandeur
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My whole argument has been as follows. K and Newton are the same kind of QB (something both their physical stature, stats, and style of offense all very much bear out). I should also mention that it's not like I'm the only guy paying attention to make this comparison.

 

Now, like I said the first time I brought this up (over at scramble) that K is either better than Newton or simply Newton on a better team. Hell, I'm not even saying that the Niners wouldn't be better if they had Newton. I'm just saying, the Niners are a better team than the Panthers and have a QB that is very similar. So, given that, if there's a team that had troubles with Newton and Carolina, it's safe to say they'd have at least as much trouble with K

 

 

 

Are'nt Bradford and Ryan "the same kid of QB"? Did'nt Bradford put 275b and 2 on the 49ers "in their crib" in a game that ended in a tie? I think Carolina and St. Louis both are about the same on the crappiness scale. So what's your point? That Car and Newton played well against Atl so the 49ers will win? St. Louis played well against the 49ers so maybe Atl wins.. Hell Ari beat New England so how the hell do the Patriots have a chance against Balty this wk lol???

 

I don't think you're giving any thought to the fact that division rivals almost always play tough against division rivals.

 

SF may win huge this wkend. There's just as good a chance that Atl may whether you see it or not... We'll see

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Dude, we've had a good back and forth here and made our points, so don't go back to the piling on over respect when I've tried to stick purely to the matchup here.

 

And my point was that it was the Falcons offense, not defense that broke that second game, the defense did well to keep them in it through the half considering they were left on the field all game. I remember reading on the Panthers board, that they were really nervous at half time to not be up as much as they should have been, considering the offense didn't show up while they were moving the ball well.

 

.. And all the buzz before and after that game was that they had bulletin board material over Ryan saying "get the f' off my field" the first time, so if you want to talk about why this was not only an anomaly for Cam but for the Falcons, I'd point to the heated divisional rivalry with the Panthers losing a lot of hard-fought games to the Falcons.

 

But I'm not trying to make too many excuses, just saying that even at their worst games against Cam, there was plenty of silver lining if they actually show up for 4 quarters this time.

 

And yes, after Cam's rookie year throwing for over 4,000 yards, I'd say that his sophomore slump doesn't really change the fact that he can be a true dual-threat QB. I know Kaepernick can be too, but outside of making some deep throws, he still has plenty to learn about being a great passing QB too.

 

Tell you what, I really hope ATL disregards Kaep as a passer as much as you seem to be. Devote a spy to him and make sure you close off the edge. When he puts the ball in Gore's tummy, assume he's actually going to pull it out and go for the corner. That'll mean single coverage everywhere and nice open running lanes for Gore. Something I wouldn't mind at all.

Are'nt Bradford and Ryan "the same kid of QB"? Did'nt Bradford put 275b and 2 on the 49ers "in their crib" in a game that ended in a tie? I think Carolina and St. Louis both are about the same on the crappiness scale. So what's your point? That Car and Newton played well against Atl so the 49ers will win? St. Louis played well against the 49ers so maybe Atl wins.. Hell Ari beat New England so how the hell do the Patriots have a chance against Balty this wk lol???

 

I don't think you're giving any thought to the fact that division rivals almost always play tough against division rivals.

 

SF may win huge this wkend. There's just as good a chance that Atl may whether you see it or not... We'll see

 

Yes, in 5 quarters of play, Bradford put up 275 and 2 TDs vs the Niners at SF (which is basically what Newton did through the air in 4 quarters plus another 80 or so and a TD on the ground at ATL). Of course, Bradford didn't exactly light them up in the ugly-fest at St. Louis. tossing a pedestrialn 200 yds and zero TDs. Now, sure, SF didn't win either of those games and both Carolina were flawed teams but may have played above their games against the respective teams.

 

However, based on the fact that Bradford had one very nice game and one below average one vs the Niners and Newton had two of his best games of the season vs ATL, I think my argument still holds.

Edited by detlef
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Tell you what, I really hope ATL disregards Kaep as a passer as much as you seem to be. Devote a spy to him and make sure you close off the edge. When he puts the ball in Gore's tummy, assume he's actually going to pull it out and go for the corner. That'll mean single coverage everywhere and nice open running lanes for Gore. Something I wouldn't mind at all.

 

 

It will be very interesting what Nolan decides to do, but he does tailor his scheme well to what the offense likes to do. They were moving around all over the place to confuse the Mannings and Brees, and may do the same here if they feel like they can rattle and contain Kaepernick enough that way, but I have a feeling he'll have something different dialed up...

 

They'll likely have to double Crabtree, commit at least a spy to contain and rely on front 4 for pressure over blitz, but the real X factor I think they have to account for is if they get Vernon Davis going. The Falcons had absolutely no answer for Miller last week, and despite Davis disappearing at times, we all know he's a powderkeg waiting to go off.

 

The Niners certainly have their own poisons to choose from, but the "single coverage" argument works both ways, when you simply can't double all of the Falcons weapons, and Ryan is excellent at finding the open (usually single-covered) guy. The Niners defensive plan should be much simpler of not letting Ryan get comfortable back there and not letting them be balanced and eat clock.

 

Running game for both teams should also be the wildcard, as much as I wouldn't have thought that 2 weeks ago, but the Falcons rush offense and defense was worlds' better than even Falcons fans expected last week. We'll see if that continues or if the Niners handle the rush the way they have all year.

Edited by delusions of grandeur
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And now you're just showing you're an idiot who can't read. Thanks for playing.

 

 

If things like 'Kap plays like Cam so the niners will win' or 'niners had trouble with the Rams so Atl will win' meant ANYTHING AT ALL Vegas would go broke.

I've learned from betting (losing) NFL games that what happened last week or the week before or in week 2 mean NOTHING. Zip, zilch nada.

 

All you've shown me from reading your work on 2 different boards is, you pretty much have SF penciled into the Super Bowl. You may be right. As a matter of fact ATL may get killed. I just think that both teams have a great shot of winning and no matter how many stats/game results whatever you post here, it does'nt matter.

 

If SF wins you won't necessarily be right. If they lose, you won't be wrong. It's IMPOSSIBLE to predict NFL games today

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If things like 'Kap plays like Cam so the niners will win' or 'niners had trouble with the Rams so Atl will win' meant ANYTHING AT ALL Vegas would go broke.

I've learned from betting (losing) NFL games that what happened last week or the week before or in week 2 mean NOTHING. Zip, zilch nada.

 

All you've shown me from reading your work on 2 different boards is, you pretty much have SF penciled into the Super Bowl. You may be right. As a matter of fact ATL may get killed. I just think that both teams have a great shot of winning and no matter how many stats/game results whatever you post here, it does'nt matter.

 

If SF wins you won't necessarily be right. If they lose, you won't be wrong. It's IMPOSSIBLE to predict NFL games today

 

Um, this is a thread debating why we think SF or ATL will win. So, people make arguments as to why they think one or the other will happen.

 

Something you've really brought nothing to.

 

1) Saying Bradford went off against the Niners so that negates what newton did to ATL. I mean, that would be a great point, if it wasn't wrong. If you take Newton's stats in two games vs ATL and extrapolate them for a whole season, you get one of the greatest QB seasons of all time. 4000 yds 32 TDs passing, something like 1400 yds rushing 16 TDs. The last two would be NFL records, btw. Bradford's vs the Niners, stretched to a full season? 3800 yds 16 TDs.

 

2) The second point you made was worse. I wasn't saying K was way better than Newton, I was refuting the fact that Newton is a passing threat and K is not. Oh, and you got it wrong, Newton has 8 yards per game more than K. Basically the only passing stat he's better than K at this season.

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Um, this is a thread debating why we think SF or ATL will win. So, people make arguments as to why they think one or the other will happen.

 

Something you've really brought nothing to.

 

1) Saying Bradford went off against the Niners so that negates what newton did to ATL. I mean, that would be a great point, if it wasn't wrong. If you take Newton's stats in two games vs ATL and extrapolate them for a whole season, you get one of the greatest QB seasons of all time. 4000 yds 32 TDs passing, something like 1400 yds rushing 16 TDs. The last two would be NFL records, btw. Bradford's vs the Niners, stretched to a full season? 3800 yds 16 TDs.

 

2) The second point you made was worse. I wasn't saying K was way better than Newton, I was refuting the fact that Newton is a passing threat and K is not. Oh, and you got it wrong, Newton has 8 yards per game more than K. Basically the only passing stat he's better than K at this season.

 

 

Gotcha, I'll give it to ya that a 2 game sample size is 100% bigger than a 1 game sample size of effective play against a rival, but it's still a 2 game sample size you're extrapolating into a career year. I can assure you that if the Falcons and Panthers played 16 times, you'd see a lot more games like last year, when his record-setting rookie year didn't stop the Falcons from making him have 2 bad days.

 

I agree with HBTC that you're discounting the effect of a divisional rivalry on stats, you can pretty much throw them out the window, it's whoever shows up. I mean, should I extapolate the season from what happened between the Niners and Seahawks?

 

Last year the Falcons were an outlier in a successful season for Cam, this year he was an outlier against a top scoring defense. Why were the only teams to beat the Falcons (who also lost to them) all in divison? I think you can figure out what the common denominator is.

Edited by delusions of grandeur
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Last year the Falcons were an outlier in a successful season for Cam, this year he was an outlier against a top scoring defense. Why were the only teams to beat the Falcons (who also lost to them) all in divison? I think you can figure out what the common denominator is.

 

 

because you guys got the afc west, det, nfc east, and az.

 

:lol:

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because you guys got the afc west, det, nfc east, and az.

 

:lol:

 

 

Yeah, total cakewalk facing both Mannings, Brees, Cam, RG3, Stafford, hell even Slip and Rivers can put up stats on you, yet every one (yes even Cam with his game-losing fumble) had fits with them.

 

Yes, the offense faced an easy schedule, but the defense faced a top 10 schedule and ended up top 5 in scoring and turnovers.

Edited by delusions of grandeur
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Um, this is a thread debating why we think SF or ATL will win. So, people make arguments as to why they think one or the other will happen.

 

Something you've really brought nothing to.

 

 

 

 

people don't debate with you. They state opinions and you blast them for not agreeing with you :lol:

 

I did bring the fact that no matter how many stats you throw out there, after the ball is kicked..none of them matter

 

Anyway, thanks for giving me a rooting interest in this game

Edited by HowboutthemCowboys
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int's:

brees- 19

romo- 19

freeman- 17

stafford- 17

eli- 15

rivers- 15

cam- 12

payton- 11

 

so, not even bringing up fumbles (your choice of lost or not), these guys are turn over machines.

 

 

Yet they were still a top 10 schedule overall, and maybe, jsut maybe the Falcons defense contributed to their great amount of turnovers and/or lack of TDs in these games:

 

Brees 5/19 (26%) of his total interceptions came in one game. 31% if you take into account the other game.

 

Peyton - 3/11 (27%) of his came from 1 quarter against the Falcons

 

Eli & Rivers - 2/15 (13%), only 8 other teams had INTs against either QB.

 

Cam - Forced 2 out of 10 fumbles this year, and while didn't recover, it negated what would have been the game-clinching first down

 

Griffin - No turnovers but no scores, and they made him pay on his lone run. By the boxscore of only 98 total yards, you wouldn't have thought he played 39 minutes of this game.

 

Freeman - no INTs, but 1 TD in two meetings, that came in the second game that they clearly didn't show up for with nothing to play for. Also shut down the muscle hampstr (whatever that means) the first go round

 

Romo- No turnovers, but no TDs, 13 total points

 

Stafford - No TDs and 1 INT, despite putting up 440 yards passing, only scored 17 points

 

Outside of Cam, all either far exceeded their season average of turnovers, or scored far less TDs than their season average. Either way, it backs up that they're a top 5 scoring and turnover defense agianst what was a top 10 schedule. That's all undeniable.

 

 

(ETA: Oh and let's not forget Russel Wilson, 1/11 of his INTs in 18 games, and also forced a Lynch fumble on his whopping 48 yards)

Edited by delusions of grandeur
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people don't debate with you. They state opinions and you blast them for not agreeing with you :lol:

 

I did bring the fact that no matter how many stats you throw out there, after the ball is kicked..none of them matter

 

Anyway, thanks for giving me a rooting interest in this game

 

you made a poor argument. Sorry, but you did. Perhaps I'm not that patient with people who come to a debate with bad stuff.

 

Tell you what, make an actual argument and we can see where this goes.

 

And it's going to have to be better than, "you never truly know until they play the game"

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you made a poor argument. Sorry, but you did. Perhaps I'm not that patient with people who come to a debate with bad stuff.

 

Tell you what, make an actual argument and we can see where this goes.

 

And it's going to have to be better than, "you never truly know until they play the game"

 

 

you're missing the point. there's not really an argument to be made imo .. this game is a coin toss. i don't know how anyone can see it any other way

 

jmo, but you should just sit back , relax and enjoy the fact that your team is playin this weekend instead of arguing with anyone will listen about why your team is going to win. trust me, you never know when they're gonna make it back :lol:

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you're missing the point. there's not really an argument to be made imo .. this game is a coin toss. i don't know how anyone can see it any other way

 

jmo, but you should just sit back , relax and enjoy the fact that your team is playin this weekend instead of arguing with anyone will listen about why your team is going to win. trust me, you never know when they're gonna make it back :lol:

 

 

I was with you on some of the other counterpoints like essentially guaranteeing victory based on past results: But cmon man, I know it's been a while, but you've been in this situation, where there's nothing to do besides driving yourself crazy waiting on Sunday, so might as well talk some football and smack...

 

I'll admit I was butthurt on Monday having a big victory get pissed on, but at this point I welcome the debate, even if it is with cocky Niner fans.

Edited by delusions of grandeur
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perhaps, just perhaps those teams enhanced your turnovers..... and offensive numbers as well. tampa, nos, afc west were very generous with passing yards allowed.

 

I won't deny that the offense had an easy schedule and frankly took their foot off the gas when they should have scored more, but if you're going to acknowledge their weak overall schedule, you have to acknowledge that it was a top 10 defensive schedule they faced. So when you're keeping QBs well below/above their season average in either turnovers, TDs or both, then I think that only backs up my point when theteams on the schedule performed top 10, and they were still top 5 in the two most important defensive categories, points and turnovers.

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i see that they gave up a lot of passing yards, didn't face a lot of challenging rushing teams, and did not yield a lot of pts. just wonder how they do against teams that don't self destruct? i think the sea game is a mixed bag. i see a lot of good in the first half, absolute collapse in the 2nd half. good fortune/good play? debatable..... i may not be around much until sunday. good luck.

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Havn't read through the entire thread to see if this was addressed or not, but are the Falcons planning on using a DE to spy on Kaepernick? Just wondering cause although John Abraham is expected to play, I doubt he is all that effective. So you are taking away 1 DE to spy, and starting another less than 100%, effectively opening up the passing game with zero to little pass rush. All this is mute if Gore gets 25 touches anyway.

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