Jump to content
[[Template core/front/custom/_customHeader is throwing an error. This theme may be out of date. Run the support tool in the AdminCP to restore the default theme.]]

Rookie Dynasty Drafts


Recommended Posts

That should be interesting because there are so many questions about the top 5 or so that the order could just about be anything.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The huddle dynasty rankings need some fixing. There are some really head scratching rankings for dynasty and makes no sense in many spots. A few examples....Peyton #3 dynasty QB ? Tony Gonzalez #4 dynasty TE with 1 year left ? E-Sanders ranked ahead of Tavon Austin who is going 1.01 in a lot of rookie drafts, Pretty sure I am not getting the 1.01 pick for E-Sanders in trade.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The huddle dynasty rankings need some fixing. There are some really head scratching rankings for dynasty and makes no sense in many spots. A few examples....Peyton #3 dynasty QB ? Tony Gonzalez #4 dynasty TE with 1 year left ? E-Sanders ranked ahead of Tavon Austin who is going 1.01 in a lot of rookie drafts, Pretty sure I am not getting the 1.01 pick for E-Sanders in trade.

 

 

Dynasty rankings are usually bad. This site, i'm sorry to say, when it comes to this, is no different.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The full rankings are going to be out at the end of the month including dynasty rankings. It takes me almost a month to review every team, player and situation to create the rankings. I'll go look at the interim one that is up right now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The huddle dynasty rankings need some fixing. There are some really head scratching rankings for dynasty and makes no sense in many spots. A few examples....Peyton #3 dynasty QB ? Tony Gonzalez #4 dynasty TE with 1 year left ? E-Sanders ranked ahead of Tavon Austin who is going 1.01 in a lot of rookie drafts, Pretty sure I am not getting the 1.01 pick for E-Sanders in trade.

 

Manning may seem high but both he and Gonzalez make interesting cases. Sure, in a dynasty league you want to have players for many years. But at what point would you ignore a player who will almost certainly be a top 3 player in their position and a difference maker even if only for one or two years?

 

In my opinion, the current year carries at least as much weight as any future years. When you are talking rookies, they are so hit and miss that they are probably over-valued in a majority of cases. And if you want to see how quickly things change, go look at a fantasy draft that is two or three years old for how different it is now.

 

I would be happy to own Peyton Manning even if he only plays one or two more years. I would rather have Gonzalez on my dynasty team than all but maybe 4 or 5 TEs because he makes a difference and most do not. I can always get a new TE next year.

 

In my opinion, dynasty/keeper rankings should affect more players outside of the top tier or two.

 

I do agree a ranking of rookies against each other has value. Just out of interest, what are opinions on this? Down grade a stud just because he is in his final year or two? What role does this year play versus holding out hope in future years for lesser players?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Manning may seem high but both he and Gonzalez make interesting cases. Sure, in a dynasty league you want to have players for many years. But at what point would you ignore a player who will almost certainly be a top 3 player in their position and a difference maker even if only for one or two years?

 

In my opinion, the current year carries at least as much weight as any future years. When you are talking rookies, they are so hit and miss that they are probably over-valued in a majority of cases. And if you want to see how quickly things change, go look at a fantasy draft that is two or three years old for how different it is now.

 

I would be happy to own Peyton Manning even if he only plays one or two more years. I would rather have Gonzalez on my dynasty team than all but maybe 4 or 5 TEs because he makes a difference and most do not. I can always get a new TE next year.

 

In my opinion, dynasty/keeper rankings should affect more players outside of the top tier or two.

 

I do agree a ranking of rookies against each other has value. Just out of interest, what are opinions on this? Down grade a stud just because he is in his final year or two? What role does this year play versus holding out hope in future years for lesser players?

 

Dynasty rankings are difficult b/c there are different ways to value the present vs. the future. So there will always be disagreement. Personally i think if someone has a few years left that are expected to be at their same production, they shouldn't be downgraded too much. Someone who has a couple years left (off the top of my head, Andre Johnson) downgraded a bit and someone who has one year left (Frank Gore) downgraded a decent amount.

 

Just to take one example from your rankings, you have Steve Smith who is like 100 years old ranked higher than Hicks, Crabtree and Cobb, all guys who are hitting their prime (hicks injury concerns aside).

Edited by Jackass
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Manning may seem high but both he and Gonzalez make interesting cases. Sure, in a dynasty league you want to have players for many years. But at what point would you ignore a player who will almost certainly be a top 3 player in their position and a difference maker even if only for one or two years?

 

In my opinion, the current year carries at least as much weight as any future years. When you are talking rookies, they are so hit and miss that they are probably over-valued in a majority of cases. And if you want to see how quickly things change, go look at a fantasy draft that is two or three years old for how different it is now.

 

I would be happy to own Peyton Manning even if he only plays one or two more years. I would rather have Gonzalez on my dynasty team than all but maybe 4 or 5 TEs because he makes a difference and most do not. I can always get a new TE next year.

 

In my opinion, dynasty/keeper rankings should affect more players outside of the top tier or two.

 

I do agree a ranking of rookies against each other has value. Just out of interest, what are opinions on this? Down grade a stud just because he is in his final year or two? What role does this year play versus holding out hope in future years for lesser players?

 

BOOM!
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The huddle dynasty rankings need some fixing. There are some really head scratching rankings for dynasty and makes no sense in many spots. A few examples....Peyton #3 dynasty QB ? Tony Gonzalez #4 dynasty TE with 1 year left ? E-Sanders ranked ahead of Tavon Austin who is going 1.01 in a lot of rookie drafts, Pretty sure I am not getting the 1.01 pick for E-Sanders in trade.

 

That's because rookie picks (particularly the #1 pick) are usually over-valued. They almost always carry more risk than established players do, in my opinion, and in years like this, there is no sure thing. What's funny is Sanders might be considered a "throw-in" in a deal for the 1.01 pick. Yet, I don't think it's completely out of the realm of possibilities to see Sanders and Austin put up similar numbers this year, or even possibly see Sanders have the better year. Would it be a surprise? Maybe, but I wouldn't consider it to be shocking, by any means.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Dynasty rankings need to be heavily skewed to a particular individual's year bias. How do you value future years compared to this year? How many years out add value to you when you evaluate players?

 

Someone who only looks three years out with 50-35-15 percentage value weighting from year 1 to 3 will have drastically different rankings from someone who looks five years out with 20-20-20-20-20 percentage value weighting. As such, I find using one list to determine all of your roster decisions is folly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Dynasty rankings need to be heavily skewed to a particular individual's year bias. How do you value future years compared to this year? How many years out add value to you when you evaluate players?

 

Someone who only looks three years out with 50-35-15 percentage value weighting from year 1 to 3 will have drastically different rankings from someone who looks five years out with 20-20-20-20-20 percentage value weighting. As such, I find using one list to determine all of your roster decisions is folly.

 

 

In addition to this, assuming it is not a new dynasty league, your current team makeup also has a lot to do with how you would value a player. If you have a team poised to make a run at a title in the next 1-2 years, you value more established contributors over hit or miss rookies, where if you are truly in a rebuild mode, you would value rookies/youth over a short term solution.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

 

In addition to this, assuming it is not a new dynasty league, your current team makeup also has a lot to do with how you would value a player. If you have a team poised to make a run at a title in the next 1-2 years, you value more established contributors over hit or miss rookies, where if you are truly in a rebuild mode, you would value rookies/youth over a short term solution.

 

 

That's exactly where I was going to go with it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've seen sites that have rookie picks broken down by "win now" and "build for the future" I like that lens, probably takes a good deal extra work, and the one site in particular I'm thinking of hasn't been around long enough for me to tell you if it's effective/accurate, but it's a nice twist.

 

Manysites also tend to put out the assumption around their dynasty rankings something like - Dynasty rankings are focused on a players value over a three year time horizon with a slight bias toward next year's likely performance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Manning may seem high but both he and Gonzalez make interesting cases. Sure, in a dynasty league you want to have players for many years. But at what point would you ignore a player who will almost certainly be a top 3 player in their position and a difference maker even if only for one or two years?

 

In my opinion, the current year carries at least as much weight as any future years. When you are talking rookies, they are so hit and miss that they are probably over-valued in a majority of cases. And if you want to see how quickly things change, go look at a fantasy draft that is two or three years old for how different it is now.

 

I would be happy to own Peyton Manning even if he only plays one or two more years. I would rather have Gonzalez on my dynasty team than all but maybe 4 or 5 TEs because he makes a difference and most do not. I can always get a new TE next year.

 

In my opinion, dynasty/keeper rankings should affect more players outside of the top tier or two.

 

I do agree a ranking of rookies against each other has value. Just out of interest, what are opinions on this? Down grade a stud just because he is in his final year or two? What role does this year play versus holding out hope in future years for lesser players?

 

 

Dynasty rankings are very much subject to your plan and vision for your dynasty team, your league rules and especially to how close you are to winning now.

 

If you are a team competing for this year, Gonzalez is a top 3 player at his position. If you are rebuilding you probably don't want to spend like that to acquire him, but you probably DO want to trade him away to a competing team. In that regard, the best way to do a catch all dynasty ranking is to look at a value snapshot of today. A player might not fit your plan, but if you can create value with an asset then that's what you should be targeting with a player like Gonzalez or Manning.

 

I just traded Fred Jackson away for a pair of late third round rookie picks in a Dynasty league. I traded him to the Spiller owner, who liked the deal because in this salary cap league Jackson is great insurance as a great cap number. My team is not going to be competitive this year (I just took it over and am trying to assess how this league works overall), and so getting value for him is important to me. IMO that's where dynasty rankings need to help, and I think David's approach does just that.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Full Impact IDP (16 teamer) (I had 1.7 but don't really care for this crop of rooks so I flipped it for a 1st and 3rd next year.

 

 

Wow, Brown at 1.06 seems really early. Must have been a roster need there, but I guess with so few high caliber offensive rookies, maybe this is the year to go IDP early.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow, Brown at 1.06 seems really early. Must have been a roster need there, but I guess with so few high caliber offensive rookies, maybe this is the year to go IDP early.

 

I was giving consideration to Brown with my 1.7, fwiw. One thing that I think pushes his value up this year is that there are so many questions about the other picks...he is about as close a can't miss prospect that you can have and this year that just pushes his value up some...also you have to consider the different concept of Full Impact IDP too.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Manning may seem high but both he and Gonzalez make interesting cases. Sure, in a dynasty league you want to have players for many years. But at what point would you ignore a player who will almost certainly be a top 3 player in their position and a difference maker even if only for one or two years?

 

In my opinion, the current year carries at least as much weight as any future years. When you are talking rookies, they are so hit and miss that they are probably over-valued in a majority of cases. And if you want to see how quickly things change, go look at a fantasy draft that is two or three years old for how different it is now.

 

I would be happy to own Peyton Manning even if he only plays one or two more years. I would rather have Gonzalez on my dynasty team than all but maybe 4 or 5 TEs because he makes a difference and most do not. I can always get a new TE next year.

 

In my opinion, dynasty/keeper rankings should affect more players outside of the top tier or two.

 

I do agree a ranking of rookies against each other has value. Just out of interest, what are opinions on this? Down grade a stud just because he is in his final year or two? What role does this year play versus holding out hope in future years for lesser players?

 

 

IMO the bolded area is the issue I disagree with in Dynasty Rankings.

 

BTW,

 

I get just how thankless rankings can be. I use to rank players for a site for years and it is not an easy task by any measure. For the most part I like the rankings around here so please don't take this as jab in any way.

 

I agree with this mindset in redrafts but would contend Dyasty rankings are way more about looking into the future. BTW, I do not rely on rankings sheet other than an ocasional glance to check my mindset so it is not a big deal to me but for the player just starting out in a dynasty if they rely on this thought process then they would take BJGE ranked 26th over Ball 42nd, Bell 43rd, or Gio 46th.

 

Now he is a good player and all but anyone offering this player for a top 4 rookie pick to an experienced owner would get laughed out of the room. Therefore ranking an extreme at risk player 20 spots higher than his likely replacement when no one would make that deal seems a bit of a Dynasty Ranking Reach.

 

Personally, I look to 3 year windows on production going forward. While past results are important, dynasty rankings are all about future prodution potential weighed against currant situation and age.

 

Dynasty rankings in the lower tiers is where it gets difficult but McGahee is a candidate to be released now that Ball is in town so there is no way he should have higher ranking 39 than Ball at 42. We all would draft Ball ahead of him in a Dynasty league. 100 out of 100 times we trade him for him Ball. Therefore Ball should be ranked cosiderably higher even though he hasn't even had a carry yet.

 

Just my two sense on how I view the young guns vs the old guard from a ranking perspective.

 

Key questions about drafting and trading two players of the same position must be answered when ranking Dynasty players.

 

This is how I would set rankings and defend those rankings.

Edited by Ice1
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Call me crazy but who do you rank higher for dynasty - Andre Luck or Peyton Manning ? Matty Ice or Peyton Manning ? Not talking about rookies or anything just talking about guys who are already studs/appear on their way to stardom who are very young compared to guys very old. Matty Ice and Peyton threw up similar numbers last year and Peyton MAY outdo him a little this year but I rather have Matty Ice for 10 years than Peyton for 2-3 right ? Maybe I am crazy. I seen some site rank McClain over Lamar Miller last year...we already knew what McClain was...a big nothing but Miller might be a something or a bust I will risk it in dynasty over a true nothing. I can't see 1 person in the world that would trade me Nicks for Steve Smith. Age should carry more weight when looking at non rookies guys who have done it, ect.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Are those PPR rankings ? Most leagues are PPR leagues it would seem like they should be. Either way Harvin at 16 and Fitzgerald at 19 at WR is crazy low. McGahee is ranked over every rookie RB that can't be allowed!! So are Moreno and Dwyer and a bunch of other stiffs that no one would want ahead of a rookie maybe that rookie turns into a bust but I will take that chance over any of those guys. You list Witten behind Gonzalez that seems impossible Witten has been a stud (PPR) so these must not be PPR rankings. Cam Newton vs Peyton ? Gore is rated over David Wilson ? Gore at 15 overall he has 1-2 years left and is slowing down. Give me a shot at a 4-5 year stud in David Wilson. Dynasty rankings are very subjective but a lot of these just don't make sense.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Someone mentioned considering the next three years. Here are the running backs from the last three years.

 

 

 

2012

1.03 Trent Richardson

1.31 Doug Martin

1.32 David Wilson

2.18 Isaiah Pead

2.29 LaMichael James

3.04 Ronnie Hillman

3.21 Bernard Pierce

4.02 Lamar Miller

4.11 Robert Turbin

4.33 Rhett Ellison

5.22 Bradie Ewing

5.24 Chris Rainey

5.35 Vick Ballard

6.03 Alfred Morris

6.12 Cyrus Gray

6.21 Dan Herron

6.32 Terrance Ganaway

7.05 Michael Smith

7.22 Bryce Brown

7.43 Edwin Baker

7.45 Daryl Richardson

2011

1.28 Mark Ingram

2.06 Ryan Williams

2.24 Shane Vereen

2.25 Mikel Leshoure

2.30 Daniel Thomas

3.07 Demarco Murray

3.09 Stevan Ridley

3.32 Alex Green

4.08 Roy Helu

4.18 Kendall Hunter

4.22 Delone Carter

4.27 Owen Marecic

4.28 Taiwan Jones

4.29 Bilal Powell

4.33 Jamie Harper

5.02 Johnny White

5.05 Anthony Sherman

5.14 Jacquizz Rodgers

5.18 Dion Lewis

6.12 Evan Royster

6.18 Jordan Todman

6.22 Allen Bradford

7.17 Shaun Chapas

7.18 Da'Rel Scott

7.20 Shane Bannon

7.22 Anthony Allen

7.29 Baron Batch

7.37 Stanley Havili

7.43 Jay Finlay

2010

1.09 C.J. Spiller

1.12 Ryan Mathews

1.30 Jahvid Best

2.04 Dexter McCluster

2.19 Toby Gerhart

2.26 Ben Tate

2.27 Montario Hardesty

4.14 Joe McKnight

5.08 John Conner

6.04 Anthony Dixon

6.11 Deji Karim

6.19 Jonathan Dwyer

6.24 James Stark

6.28 Trindon Holliday

6.31 Charles Scott

7.38 Jameson Konz

 

Last year was unusual with what I would consider four of the first 14 RBs having fantasy value last year. Two years ago, there are only two runners with fantasy value and they were 6th and 7th drafted. Three years ago there is only one RB worth starting and he was sort of a dog for the first two years. I would rather have proven veterans even for RBs. How many of those above RBs were taken for any longterm consideration which was completely unwarranted?

 

It's all a challenge to come up with a single ranking when there are a multitude of factors to consider and there is a huge difference between holding a player or drafting a player or trading for a player. Let's see where I end up with the dynasty rankings after I spend a month combing through all the players/teams/situations/etc.

 

Would love to have that discussion...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Would love to have that discussion...

Count me in. I am not trying to be a pain on this and I know dynasty rankings are the toughest to do. Sometimes there needs to be 2 ranking lists...."trying to win now" and "rebuilding" because they would certainly be different. Are these PPR rankings ? I think most leagues are PPR I - I play in 7 dynasty leagues and 6 are PPR.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ryan Mathews had a great 2011 season (240 PPR points even with Tolbert there) and was considered a lock 1st round dynasty startup pick last year and Javid Best was great until he got concussed.

Edited by Henry Muto
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information