RB, RB, RB?

[rush00756]

Try doing a mock and not pick a running back in the second or third round. The top level of rb's seems even more scarce than in years past. While QB and WR are deep for 10-12 team leagues. I know snake drafts are a thing of the past, however there are still a lot of people who use them.

 

What say you?

[Savage Beatings]

Why are snake drafts a thing of the past?

 

I agree that QB is very deep now. Would be hard pressed to take a QB before Round 4.

 

And I actually think that RBs are deeper than WRs this year (at least for stud level production).

[darin3]

Crazy talk. Like SB said above, RB is ultra deep given all the RBBCs. There's absolutely no chance I'd draft 3 RBs to start the draft. Who the heck is going to be your WR1?

[DMD]

I can't argue much with anyone who ends up with 2 RBs in their first three picks but I would never take 3 straight RBs unless something near-prank like happened and someone really fell. You just fall so far behind in every other position that you end up with no difference makers anywhere.

[stethant]

After seeing this post I checked the early rankings of some non-huddle sites. Top 10 picks by 5 "experts" at espn and cbs (non-PPR) were all RBs and 11-13 of the top 14 were RBs. This may be the approach for this season's FFL masses.

 

If that's the way drafts go, the smart money is to pull a Costanza and do the opposite. There are plenty of serviceable backs in rounds 3-5, as there always are if you're paying attention.

[rush00756]

Based on all the advice given, people are saying QB is deep, RB has plenty of backs and WR is deep. This just goes to show you that you can pick virtually any position during the first four or five rounds and if you pick the wrong player, you will not be successful. Every year there's RB's and WR's that "pop" during the season. People have arguments for Stud RB, VBD, Do the opposite, which you can win with them all, only if you pick the right players.

[delusions of grandeur]

Based on all the advice given, people are saying QB is deep, RB has plenty of backs and WR is deep. This just goes to show you that you can pick virtually any position during the first four or five rounds and if you pick the wrong player, you will not be successful. Every year there's RB's and WR's that "pop" during the season. People have arguments for Stud RB, VBD, Do the opposite, which you can win with them all, only if you pick the right players.

 

 

So it seems we've come full circle back to the "pick the players who you think will score the msot points" philosophy. Very insightful.

 

Every draft is different. Know your leaguemates tendencies (and scoring, lineup requirements of course), plan where you can address another position if you wait, and draft the players you expect to match or exceed their ADP. It's really that simple. There is no one-size-fits-all philosophy, jut knowing your league and who's still on the board that you need to grab or can wait on.

Edited May 22, 2013 by delusions of grandeur

[Mustangt125]

This is the best way to go:

1 RB

2 WR

3 RB

4 WR,QB,RB depending on who is available.

 

Look at last year's draft. There were only three or four sure fire top pick RBs, and the list has more than doubled. Get your stud RBs and you can fill in the WRs and QB later. I play in 12 team leagues, so there can only be 12 starting QBs but there are going to be AT LEAST 24 starting RBs, more depending on weekly flexes.

 

RBs you can pick that you had less confidence in last year:

T Richardson

D Martin

S Ridley

M Lynch

A Morris

J Charles (Got in 2nd round, sure fire 1st rounder this year in many leagues)

AP (Again, taken in 2nd round of my drafts last year, sure fire #1 or #2 pick this year)

 

that's on top of the guys left over from last year being:

A Foster

L McCoy

R Rice

 

I know I'm forgetting some, but the best way to go is have 2 out of your first 3 picks be RBs.

 

Edit: And Snake Drafts are the thing of the future, if anything....

Edited May 22, 2013 by Mustangt125

[Henry Muto]

This is the best way to go:

 

 

Pick the players that score the most points!

[Scorcher]

I don't think anyone has a specific strategy that they would use across the boards in every league. There is one league that I would go 3 rb's if they were all studs simply because after 5 years I have noticed that strong consistent RB's win the league. THis league is non ppr, one flex . Consistent RB's make the difference in this league. I would not use this strategy in any other league.

[Thews40]

PPR is key here. I typically don't draft a RB until the 5th round or later. You'll start stacking the deck with the other positions, but what it does is let RB's slip for the others. When things tweak, it does two things: makes RB's fall and sucks up other positions. You'll be left drafting the downside of the RBBC, but when it's time in the later rounds you can load up on the scraps. How many years have you lost a top RB to injury? How many at QB/WR/TE? It happens, but RB happens more often.

 

I like the game when things happen when they're not supposed to. If you pick the last "acceptable" position you'd be comfortable with, let's say Vernon Davis as TE, and he goes along with two others, you have to switch gears. Most will draft what's left early. What usually happens towards the end though is the scrap RB's keep getting picked up... no worry, you may luck into a gem for cheap... happens every year.

[Henry Muto]

PPR is key here. I typically don't draft a RB until the 5th round or later. You'll start stacking the deck with the other positions, but what it does is let RB's slip for the others. When things tweak, it does two things: makes RB's fall and sucks up other positions. You'll be left drafting the downside of the RBBC, but when it's time in the later rounds you can load up on the scraps. How many years have you lost a top RB to injury? How many at QB/WR/TE? It happens, but RB happens more often.

 

I like the game when things happen when they're not supposed to. If you pick the last "acceptable" position you'd be comfortable with, let's say Vernon Davis as TE, and he goes along with two others, you have to switch gears. Most will draft what's left early. What usually happens towards the end though is the scrap RB's keep getting picked up... no worry, you may luck into a gem for cheap... happens every year.

 

I am one that loves to do that as well but this year is clearly tougher in the PPR drafts I have done so far all the best RB's are picked clean by the end of the 3rd round so your looking at Ryan Mathews and Lamar Miller in the 4th, Mendenhall in the 5th type backs. In my current draft I am doing now the guy at the 12 slot decided to go WR/WR/WR/WR - his RB's are Mendenhall, Stewart and Daryl Richardson. Good luck with that!

[Gourdeau]

Sooooooooo, I should keep CJ Spiller and Ray Rice in a 3 player keeper PPR league :P

[boltnlava]

Sooooooooo, I should keep CJ Spiller and Ray Rice in a 3 player keeper PPR league :P

 

 

no. spread the love because the world needs more love. #selfish

[Thews40]

I am one that loves to do that as well but this year is clearly tougher in the PPR drafts I have done so far all the best RB's are picked clean by the end of the 3rd round so your looking at Ryan Mathews and Lamar Miller in the 4th, Mendenhall in the 5th type backs. In my current draft I am doing now the guy at the 12 slot decided to go WR/WR/WR/WR - his RB's are Mendenhall, Stewart and Daryl Richardson. Good luck with that!

 

Going by the cheatsheets you'd be right, but last year I picked up Spiller and that worked out. Guys like Ben Tate are worth a flier in non-keeper leagues, because they might hit. regardless, one has to weigh what their TE combined with a poor WR is going to net vs. a stud TE and a better WR with a less than average RB.

 

In 6 point passing TD leagues, it's key IMO to have a stud QB. That one extra passing TD is worth 60 yards on the ground or a running TD. When you have Rogers/Brady/Brees/PFM you expect at least three TD passing. You may not get them some weeks, but you expect it. QB's are not deep in this situation IMO, because NFL teams are not the same. The same QB's score high every year (barring injury) because the system is built for it. An offensive line is required to protect the QB and quality WR's have to be part of the mix. I don't care what WR winds up on the Vikings, Ponder is going to be throwing to them and AP is what this team is built on. Will there be surprises... sure, but even without Welker Brady is still Brady and he spreads it around so much it'll prolly work.

 

Not all leagues have the same scoring or lineup requirements. When you have a flex covered by a stud TE (you have two), then there's prolly 4 teams that are getting an inconsistent 30 yards and two catches a game. What's harder, picking up a stud TE or QB off the wire, or a stud RB? Injury strikes and the RBB2 gets a shot... may only be for 3 or 4 games, but you still have the core of your team to score the points.

 

What I fail to understand is how someone takes RB4 before WR2 even with a flex? Featured RB's are a dying breed, and the old school no PPR format is where this RB/RB/RB draft strategy comes from. Step out of the box and force a shift and there will be those that pull on a RB when they don't need it just because they fell... they'll freak out two rounds later when their entire season is riding on Fitzpatrick.

[darin3]

In 6 point passing TD leagues, it's key IMO to have a stud QB. That one extra passing TD is worth 60 yards on the ground or a running TD. When you have Rogers/Brady/Brees/PFM you expect at least three TD passing. You may not get them some weeks, but you expect it. QB's are not deep in this situation IMO, because NFL teams are not the same. The same QB's score high every year (barring injury) because the system is built for it. An offensive line is required to protect the QB and quality WR's have to be part of the mix. I don't care what WR winds up on the Vikings, Ponder is going to be throwing to them and AP is what this team is built on. Will there be surprises... sure, but even without Welker Brady is still Brady and he spreads it around so much it'll prolly work.

 

 

Paging Big Country....

[Big Country]

Paging Big Country....

 

 

I think saying it is "key" clearly is an overstatement, but it can be helpful. Of course, having the stud RB or stud WR over even a high end RB or WR can be "key".

 

 

I've said it many of the past few years, guess I'll say it again - I feel much more confident in my ability to find a QB that will produce starter numbers later in a draft than I do in my ability to find an RB in the 6th or later that will have the good fortune of the primary back or their RBBC running mate getting injured thus giving them the opportunity to get primary ball carrier opportunities. I'd much rather have a larger number of the primary end of an RBBC on my squad, as they are far more likely to perform, than taking a bunch of the back end of an RBBC and hoping for injury, etc. I readily agree that lightning will strike for some of those backs (ala Alfred Morris last year), but the odds that they are the one I drafted are not that great.

[delusions of grandeur]

I think saying it is "key" clearly is an overstatement, but it can be helpful. Of course, having the stud RB or stud WR over even a high end RB or WR can be "key".

 

 

I've said it many of the past few years, guess I'll say it again - I feel much more confident in my ability to find a QB that will produce starter numbers later in a draft than I do in my ability to find an RB in the 6th or later that will have the good fortune of the primary back or their RBBC running mate getting injured thus giving them the opportunity to get primary ball carrier opportunities. I'd much rather have a larger number of the primary end of an RBBC on my squad, as they are far more likely to perform, than taking a bunch of the back end of an RBBC and hoping for injury, etc. I readily agree that lightning will strike for some of those backs (ala Alfred Morris last year), but the odds that they are the one I drafted are not that great.

 

 

Especially this year, QB is just so deep, eeven moreso if you have some fliers in mind later (maybe a Tannehill or safer pick like Schaub, Smith), here is the top 20 that you can get as late as the 120th pick (per ADP), I wouldn't mind at all having a QBBC with any of:

 

Rogers (11)

Brees (20)

Brady (33)

Newton (38)

P. Manning (40)

Ryan (43)

Kaepernick (43)

Luck (47)

Wilson (50)

Griffin (51)

Stafford (53)

E. Manning (74)

Romo (74)

Roethlisberger (106)

Freeman (107)

Flacco (108)

Dalton (108)

Rivers (111)

Cutler (111)

Vick (120)

 

That's 20 QBs who could easily be startable, without even considering who the inevitable surprises will be. I'm also much more comfortable in my ability to address this position in the mid to later rounds if I don't like what will be left at other positions by then.

Edited May 24, 2013 by delusions of grandeur

[Thews40]

Especially this year, QB is just so deep, eeven moreso if you have some fliers in mind later (maybe a Tannehill or safer pick like Schaub, Smith), here is the top 20 that you can get as late as the 120th pick (per ADP), I wouldn't mind at all having a QBBC with any of:

 

Wilson (50)

Griffin (51)

Stafford (53)

E. Manning (74)

Romo (74)

Roethlisberger (106)

Freeman (107)

Flacco (108)

Dalton (108)

Rivers (111)

Cutler (111)

Vick (120)

 

That's 20 QBs who could easily be startable, without even considering who the inevitable surprises will be. I'm also much more comfortable in my ability to address this position in the mid to later rounds if I don't like what will be left at other positions by then.

 

I guess you need to define "startable" and what expectations you'd really have when you do start them over the top tier. E. Manning and Romo are the only two in the above I would feel comfortable with, and that's taking a chance. I guess the goal here is paramount... are you shooting to have a good year, or win the SB? When Brees throws 4 TD's your should win. How often does a stud RB score more than 2 TD's? How often do you expect Flacco to throw more than 2?

 

How many times in the past have people posted about being "Gronked" when the monster rears its forceful head? One player on your team has a freak week and you really should win. How many times does that happen with Rogers/Brees/Brady? ...a lot, especially with 6 points per PA TD.

Edited May 24, 2013 by Thews40

[delusions of grandeur]

I guess you need to define "startable" and what expectations you'd really have when you do start them over the top tier. E. Manning and Romo are the only two in the above I would feel comfortable with, and that's taking a chance. I guess the goal here is paramount... are you shooting to have a good year, or win the SB? When Brees throws 4 TD's your should win. How often does a stud RB score more than 2 TD's? How often do you expect Flacco to throw more than 2?

 

How many times in the past have people posted about being "Gronked" when the monster rears its forceful head? One player on your team has a freak week and you really should win. How many times does that happen with Rogers/Brees/Brady? ...a lot, especially with 6 points per PA TD.

 

 

Yes, but the point is that all of the QBs you listed can be had from the 50th to 120th pick, so all that while you can be gaining strength at other positions, most notably the 1st rounder where it's not just QBs that you can rely on to give you a decided advantage over other teams at the position. If you have a guy near Adrian Peterson or Calvin Johnson's level, they're going to be every bit as likely to consistently win you games, compared to the rest at those positions who are more prone to bust weeks.

 

Your "startable" QB on the other hand, will still usually get you some moderate points even on an off week, and will of course be far far cheaper as you gain strength elsewhere.

 

Plus the other thing I like about QBBC is that you can wait to see which QB breaks out, and if they both do, you can trade one. I did this a couple years back with Roethlisberger/Stafford, and even with Vick/Stafford when Vick was going high, because I still didn't completely trust him in a dynasty (phew). I was able to trade both Roeth and Vick when Stafford broke out, and helped improve the rest of my team. So in essence, it can work with drafting either all-upside QBs or with a safe/upside combination if you're more risk averse.

 

Though there's no denying that 6 points can help the elite QBs by sheer volume of points, but there's also a great opportunity cost that you take at other positions, where you'll have to have a good plan to address. I've had success both ways, but I agree with BC, it's usually much easier to hit on a flier from that list of QBs then it is to hit on a list of later round RBs or WRs, to me anyway...

Edited May 24, 2013 by delusions of grandeur

[delusions of grandeur]

BTW, that list of ADP I posted from MFL appears to have changed dramatically as of today. Almost makes me wonder if it's a mistake with Vick going QB8 and Kaepernick dropping to QB20

[Big Country]

Yes, but the point is that all of the QBs you listed can be had from the 50th to 120th pick, so all that while you can be gaining strength at other positions, most notably the 1st rounder where it's not just QBs that you can rely on to give you a decided advantage over other teams at the position. If you have a guy near Adrian Peterson or Calvin Johnson's level, they're going to be every bit as likely to consistently win you games, compared to the rest at those positions who are more prone to bust weeks.

 

Your "startable" QB on the other hand, will still usually get you some moderate points even on an off week, and will of course be far far cheaper as you gain strength elsewhere.

 

Plus the other thing I like about QBBC is that you can wait to see which QB breaks out, and if they both do, you can trade one. I did this a couple years back with Roethlisberger/Stafford, and even with Vick/Stafford when Vick was going high, because I still didn't completely trust him in a dynasty (phew). I was able to trade both Roeth and Vick when Stafford broke out, and helped improve the rest of my team. So in essence, it can work with drafting either all-upside QBs or with a safe/upside combination if you're more risk averse.

 

Though there's no denying that 6 points can help the elite QBs by sheer volume of points, but there's also a great opportunity cost that you take at other positions, where you'll have to have a good plan to address. I've had success both ways, but I agree with BC, it's usually much easier to hit on a flier from that list of QBs then it is to hit on a list of later round RBs or WRs, to me anyway...

 

 

To the bolded, this is also something to consider. I have mentioned it before, but some leagues are set up that it is essentially playing fantasy QB instead of fantasy football. These are leagues designed where a QB is fairly likely to score as much if not more than the rest of the starting lineup combined. Things like 10 pt. passing yards, completion points, etc., which are all things I have seen (almost seems to be more frequent lately) in addition to 6 point passing TDs that haveQBs scoring insanely high points compared to any other position. In those situations, then yes, it comes down to the best QB each week. But that is not fantasy football, that is playing QB lotto and is not a whole lot of fun.

[keggerz]

 

Going by the cheatsheets you'd be right, but last year I picked up Spiller and that worked out. Guys like Ben Tate are worth a flier in non-keeper leagues, because they might hit. regardless, one has to weigh what their TE combined with a poor WR is going to net vs. a stud TE and a better WR with a less than average RB.

 

In 6 point passing TD leagues, it's key IMO to have a stud QB. That one extra passing TD is worth 60 yards on the ground or a running TD. When you have Rogers/Brady/Brees/PFM you expect at least three TD passing. You may not get them some weeks, but you expect it. QB's are not deep in this situation IMO, because NFL teams are not the same. The same QB's score high every year (barring injury) because the system is built for it. An offensive line is required to protect the QB and quality WR's have to be part of the mix. I don't care what WR winds up on the Vikings, Ponder is going to be throwing to them and AP is what this team is built on. Will there be surprises... sure, but even without Welker Brady is still Brady and he spreads it around so much it'll prolly work.

 

Not all leagues have the same scoring or lineup requirements. When you have a flex covered by a stud TE (you have two), then there's prolly 4 teams that are getting an inconsistent 30 yards and two catches a game. What's harder, picking up a stud TE or QB off the wire, or a stud RB? Injury strikes and the RBB2 gets a shot... may only be for 3 or 4 games, but you still have the core of your team to score the points.

 

What I fail to understand is how someone takes RB4 before WR2 even with a flex? Featured RB's are a dying breed, and the old school no PPR format is where this RB/RB/RB draft strategy comes from. Step out of the box and force a shift and there will be those that pull on a RB when they don't need it just because they fell... they'll freak out two rounds later when their entire season is riding on Fitzpatrick.

 

i have some data that you'll be interested in when I publish my article.

[Thews40]

To the bolded, this is also something to consider. I have mentioned it before, but some leagues are set up that it is essentially playing fantasy QB instead of fantasy football. These are leagues designed where a QB is fairly likely to score as much if not more than the rest of the starting lineup combined. Things like 10 pt. passing yards, completion points, etc., which are all things I have seen (almost seems to be more frequent lately) in addition to 6 point passing TDs that haveQBs scoring insanely high points compared to any other position. In those situations, then yes, it comes down to the best QB each week. But that is not fantasy football, that is playing QB lotto and is not a whole lot of fun.

 

What I find interesting is the typical low scoring defense (WCOFF) leagues, as the defensive scoring is based primarily on defensive TD's. If fantasy football is set up on stats, when your defense gives up 45 points, you should lose. When a defense gives up 45 points and scores one TD, if often equals or exceeds a defense that gives up 10 points with no TD's. In this type of scoring system, defenses are usually taken when the kickers start to be picked. In FRTFL, the elite defenses start getting picked up around the 6th round, because the scoring system makes them a factor.

[Henry Muto]

WCOFF scoring for DF's are too low and I used to hate it there before the crooks ripped me off. To get 5 pts for a shutout and only 2 pts for holding a team to 5 or less and 1 pt for 10 or less is a joke. The scoring for DF that the NFFC and FFPC uses are pretty good. 12 pts a shutout, 8 pts for 2-7 against, 5 pts for 8-10 against for FFPC and the NFFC goes 12 pts shutout, 8 pts for 2-7 against, 4 pts for 8-12 against and 2 pts for 13-17 against. 6th round is insane to take a DF.