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What to do with Welker


DMD
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The Denver passing game  

68 members have voted

  1. 1. What happens now that Wes Welker is there?

    • Welker just assumes the Decker role with same results, Decker becomes Stokley
      13
    • Welker maintains NE-esque stats but Thomas declines
      5
    • Welker maintains NE-esque stats but Thomas as good or better than 2012
      21
    • Welker is 32 on new team, declines in stats and Thomas remains clear #1
      29


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Bringing in Wes Welker presents an interesting situation in Denver. Consider last year for the DEN wideouts:

 

DeMaryius Thomas - 94-1434-10

Eric Decker - 85-1064-13

Brandon Stokley - 45-544-5

 

Now that you throw Welker into the equation - what happens? He has been good for 110+ catches in his last six seasons when healthy. The Broncos may - maybe - have a better rushing game with fresh legs in Montee Ball. There are only so many plays to share...

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Missing the option: Welker becomes Brandon Stokely, but puts up about 150% of the stats. In other words, probably somewhere just better than the average of what the two players did last year.

 

Doesn't this really come down to the team's offensive format? The Pats love to throw a lot of complex short route plays. Manning and Brady, as much as people like to compare the two, really have different skill sets throwing the ball. Brady's skills probably fit Welker's game a little better, and in NE Wes had different competition for the football. There was also a comfort level between Welker and Brady that Manning might not be as quick to reproduce.

 

EDIT: I voted for the 4th option, but not exactly for the reasons stated.

Edited by Caveman_Nick
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So are you saying that Decker does not experience any decline?

 

 

That's tough to say, but then I wouldn't target Decker specifically either. Dreessen and Tamme might experience a decline. Thomas might see fewer targets.

 

OR, looking at the RB situation and not really liking any of it, Denver 2013 might become like the Colts of old and run the ball less than they have over the last few years. That means that sustaining drives means more pass attempts and more targets to go around. OR drives could just sustain longer and the team as a whole could experience an uptick in offensive production, with more time of possession and more points scored.

 

I am one of those folks that thinks Manning is a cyborg, and don't expect one iota of drop-off in his play. Steve had an excellent point in directing you at the year that he had 3 1000 yard receivers in IND. I am not sure that happens again, but I would compare the stats of wayne and harrison in the 1-2 years preceeding and following that season, and use them as a comparison basis for Thomas and Decker.

 

Overall I would not expect much of an appreciable drop-off for the WRs. I think they become the focal point of the offense, allowing Peyton to do the things he does best. I think the suffering happens in the run game and with TE production.

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Missing the option: Welker becomes Brandon Stokely, but puts up about 150% of the stats. In other words, probably somewhere just better than the average of what the two players did last year.

 

Doesn't this really come down to the team's offensive format? The Pats love to throw a lot of complex short route plays. Manning and Brady, as much as people like to compare the two, really have different skill sets throwing the ball. Brady's skills probably fit Welker's game a little better, and in NE Wes had different competition for the football. There was also a comfort level between Welker and Brady that Manning might not be as quick to reproduce.

 

EDIT: I voted for the 4th option, but not exactly for the reasons stated.

 

Agree with the part in bold, but I'd say more like 180%, with the other two taking a slight decline in receptions/yards, but maybe not in touchdowns. Something along the lines of:

 

DeMaryius Thomas - 90-1375-11

Eric Decker - 80-1000-12

Welker - 80-950-8

 

Decker is one of the most sure-handed WR's in the game, and could very well continue to be the red zone favorite, which is why I have him once again leading the trio in TD's (with just a slight drop in overall numbers). I could see Thomas getting slightly less targets, but his TD's actually increasing with another year under his belt. Welker, meanwhile, will factor in similarly in targets/catches, but with less yards and scores.

 

The question is whether or not those numbers add up to more than what is realistically possible. I don't know the answer to that question, but I could see it happening. Last year, Tamme/Dreesen combined for 93 catches for 911 yards and 7 TD's. The rest of the team (McGahee, Moreno, Hillman, Ball, Willis, etc.) combined for 85/718/2. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibilities that those two sets of numbers go down slightly (assuming the change from Stokley to Welker is an upgrade that shifts the percentage of balls caught by the big three slightly). Something like this:

 

Thomas/Decker/Stokley in 2012:

224 catches / 3042 yards / 28 TD's

 

Top 2 Tight Ends 2012:

93 catches / 911 yards / 7 TD's

 

Rest of Team in 2012:

85 catches / 718 yards / 2 TD's

 

Total Denver Passing 2012:

402 completions / 4671 yards / 37 TD's

 

Thomas/Decker/Welker in 2013:

250 catches / 3325 / 31 TD's

 

Top 2 Tight Ends 2013:

80 catches / 800 yards / 6 TD's

 

Rest of Team in 2013:

80 catches / 700 yards / 3 TD's

 

Total Denver Passing 2013:

410 completions / 4825 yards / 40 TD's

Edited by Gopher
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5000 yards just doesn't seem too mystical for me anymore. Maybe because it's been done by multiple QBs now. Maybe it's because it's just not as impossible to do with today's offenses. Maybe it's because Eli Manning almost hit 5k two seasons ago. Ok, never mind the maybes. It IS that Eli almost did it two seasons ago.

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I think this is the year that Peyton cracks the mystical 5000 yard plateau too.

 

That could happen... In which case, there might not be much of a dropoff anywhere (and Welker could still get his 80-90 catches for 1000 yards, give or take). I was just trying to show that it's reasonably possible for Welker to be a legitimate fantasy WR, without Decker or Thomas having a major decline in numbers. Maybe not a WR1, but a decent WR2/3. Those numbers could certainly be exceeded if Peyton has a far better year than last year, which is definitely possible. In fact, I'd say it's probable that he exceeds last years numbers. If anything, the numbers I posted for 2013 might be on the conservative side.

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For a couple of reasons I am slightly pessimistic about Welker being quite that good, Goph.

 

first is his age....but then not really so much the age as the miles. Welker was abused in NE. Fans here love him because he made tough catches in traffic and got a lot of yards/first downs that way. He also got the stuffing beat out of him on a weekly basis.

 

Second is the fact that they let him go. I can't help but think about all the players that did well in NE and then were let go to somewhere else, only to perform at a lesser level. Can Welker be the singular exception to this? If anyone can, I do think that it is Wes Welker. The guy oozes character and determination as a football player. But the track record of how NE values players and how those players do when they are allowed to walk suggests that people should temper their expectations.

 

That's why I went 150% of Stokely. I don't expect Welker to drop off a cliff, but I imagine a fair sized step back from the premier pass catching role he had for the Pats.

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For a couple of reasons I am slightly pessimistic about Welker being quite that good, Goph.

 

first is his age....but then not really so much the age as the miles. Welker was abused in NE. Fans here love him because he made tough catches in traffic and got a lot of yards/first downs that way. He also got the stuffing beat out of him on a weekly basis.

 

Second is the fact that they let him go. I can't help but think about all the players that did well in NE and then were let go to somewhere else, only to perform at a lesser level. Can Welker be the singular exception to this? If anyone can, I do think that it is Wes Welker. The guy oozes character and determination as a football player. But the track record of how NE values players and how those players do when they are allowed to walk suggests that people should temper their expectations.

 

That's why I went 150% of Stokely. I don't expect Welker to drop off a cliff, but I imagine a fair sized step back from the premier pass catching role he had for the Pats.

 

Those are good points. I don't think there's any chance Welker performs at the level that he did in his peak in NE. In other words, I don't see any way he catches 110 balls, or even close to that. Not only for the reasons you mentioned, but also (as somebody else mentioned) because of the fact that the two offenses/QB's are totally different. In a way, Welker was almost part of the running game in NE, via the pass. He caught the tough 3rd-and-4 conversions, but he also caught a lot of short passes on 1st down, etc. I think he could definitely become a security blanket of sorts for Manning as well, but there's no doubt he'll be used somewhat differently.

 

Maybe those numbers (80/950/8) are too high. If he stays healthy, I don't think they are at all. The question in my mind is whether or not he plays anywhere close to 16 games. In NE, it seemed he was always on the injury report, but almost always ended up suiting up. He was obviously a very integral part of the offense, but he also seems like someone who's going to play if he can (isn't going to come off the field without a fight). So, are the chances that he sits (if dinged up) in Denver any greater? Maybe, simply because they might be able to afford to sit him more than the Patriots could have, given the other WR's in Denver. But, maybe not, given that Welker may not be any more inclined to sit out. Some older players get smarter, and recognize that they need to rest to maintain effectiveness (and stay healthy for the post-season). Others become even more determined to play every game that they can, it seems. I'm not sure which category he falls into, given that he's obviously both (smart and determined).

 

I'll say this... The numbers I posted above aren't necessarily my projections for 2013, but rather an example of what I feel could very easily happen, just to show that it is possible for Welker to be a factor without the others taking a major hit. As I said, they may be conversative, in terms of what Manning and the Broncos could do overall (in the passing game). But, for Welker's numbers alone, I may have been leaning more towards optomistic, rather than conservative... only in the sense that it assumes he plays 15-16 games.

 

Still, if I had to put money on it, I'd say he'll end up somewhere in the range of 70-80 catches, 850-950 yards, and 6-8 scores. Maybe that's too high, but I've had him on too many teams (and usually am pleasantly surprised) to ever bet against him.

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Still, if I had to put money on it, I'd say he'll end up somewhere in the range of 70-80 catches, 850-950 yards, and 6-8 scores. Maybe that's too high, but I've had him on too many teams (and usually am pleasantly surprised) to ever bet against him.

 

 

150% of Stokely (The range where I pegged him) is 68 catches, 816 yards, 8 TDs. I'd probably bump the catches up to 75, but leave the rest. In other words, I think we are saying the same thing but your math suffered for a few minutes. :D

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I can definitely buy into the idea that it's only the TE's who will suffer. The outside receivers should still get theirs. I tend to agree with what Nick and Gopher say above on Welker's stats. I try to not get too wound around the axle on the stats, but rather look at it in relative terms. In a 10 or 12 team league, I think Thomas is a viable WR1 with Decker and Welker both being viable WR2/Flex types. Give the edge to Welker in PPR and Decker in standard or TD heavy leagues.

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150% of Stokely (The range where I pegged him) is 68 catches, 816 yards, 8 TDs. I'd probably bump the catches up to 75, but leave the rest. In other words, I think we are saying the same thing but your math suffered for a few minutes. :D

 

180% of 45/544/5 is 81/980/9. I had him for 80/950/8 (pretty close to that). I'm not seeing where my math was off? Like I said, though, that's assuming he plays a full (or nearly full) season, which might be an ill-advised assumption. If we are to assume he misses a couple of games, you might be right in that we're thinking/saying roughly the same thing.

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In 2004, Manning was able to support 3 WRs to 1000 yards. Here's how that season looked like in terms to breakdown between position.

 

Manning - 497 comp for 4557 yards and 49 TDs

 

Wayne - 77 - 1210 - 12

Harrison - 86 - 1113 - 15

Stokely - 68 - 1077 - 10

All WRs NOT mentioned above - 4 - 24 - 0

 

Edge - 51 - 483 - 0

Other RBs - 9 - 60 - 3 (3 TDs to FB James Mungro)

 

Dallas Clark - 25 - 423 - 5

Other TEs - 33 - 342 - 6

 

 

Looking at this, I see no major reason why Welker can't combine the stats of Brandon Stokley and Matt Willis (55 - 634 - 5 between the two of them) and take another 15 catches a piece from both Tamme and Dreessen. At the 2012 Broncos slot WR clip of 11.5 YPC (which also was Welker YPC last year), his 2013 stat line could be 85 - 980 - 8 easily without ever affecting Thomas or Decker.

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And Tavarres King becomes instantly fantasy relevant with an injury to the big 3. Considering D.Thomas has missed 11 games in 3 seasons, King could be a sneaky WW pickup if he was left undrafted in your rookie draft.

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  • 3 months later...

I'm bumping this discussion only because it's being discussed again in the Torrey Smith thread. It will be very interesting to see if, not only can there be enough touches for all three wideouts to be legitimate fantasy starters, but can Julius Thomas get enough looks to be fantasy-relevant as well.

 

I still maintain that the "big three" can reach 3300 yards and 250 catches if they're all healthy... even if there are a couple of games missed between them. I'm not sure Thomas will be anything more than a decent TE2 option, and a very intriguing keeper/dynasty TE. Maybe a spot/bye-week starter. But, it also wouldn't surprise me if he gets enough looks to crack the top 10-15 TE's, either, depending on what happens with the other options (and other TE's) in Denver.

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Didn't mean to attempt a derail of other thread. I latched on to the word "intrigue" in his post, and the first thing that came to mind was pass distribution. I gave up predicting Manning long ago. A large part of me wants to say Thomas gets the lion's share of targets based on raw talent, but Manning will shut that down faster than you can say boo if he isn't where he's supposed to be.

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