keeper league expanded

[BA Baracus]

I am in a league where we went from one keeper to two this year. This is going to change draft day in a major kind of way. Running back is going to be ridiculously thin this year. I am expecting the following guys to be kept: AP, D. Martin, T. Richardson, A. Foster, C. Spiller, J. Charles, S. Ridley, M. Lynch, A. Morris, and S. Jackson.

 

That basically only leaves McCoy, Forte, and Rice as legit RB1 candidates. With 8 draft picks ahead of me, these guys will be gone along with Megatron, Rodgers, and Brees. I am also anticipating that Marshall and Green will be kept, which basically rounds out the list of anyone that I would consider to be 1st round material.

 

I think that I am looking at the real possibility of drafting CJ1.2k in the first round and Dez in the 2nd. I have never pulled off a trade of draft picks, but I am thinking of trying to do it this year. I think that I could potentially trade into a spot that would guarantee me either Forte, McCoy, or Megatron.

 

What is a fair trade to get his 5th pick from my 10th spot? I was thinking of offering up my 1st, 2nd, and 7th for his 1st, 2nd, and 16th. Is an additional 7th round pick enough meat to make this interesting?

 

I have always been a proponent of RB early, but I am considering maybe grabbing Graham or Gronk in the 2nd and then just loading up on RB fliers in later rounds.

 

Anybody else play in a league like this? It's not quite dynasty, but more than a simple first round keeper. To say the least, I think that I will be pushed out of my comfort zone at this year's draft.

[flemingd]

Trading draft picks isn't about the players or the picks nearly as much as it is about the owner you're talking to. For every trade up, there's a trade down. You thought trading players was hard due to everyone valuing guys differently? It's multiplicative in trading draft picks. To me, the key is to focus on one side of the trade you value most and don't worry too much about "winning" the other side. Remember, this is all one big crapshoot, it's just the flavor of crap you want to shoot that's important.

 

Before I go any farther, however, I have to ask about your league info. You only mention 15 players as candidates which leaves at least 5 others. In leagues like this players like Rice don't go back into the pool, they get traded, and this might be where you want to start. It's less pronounced when you can only keep one, because it's pretty easy to find one viable guy on every roster, but when you start adding keepers you'll find real holes in rosters. In one league I'm in one owner's choices for his second keeper are Danario Alexander or Josh Gordon. Another's are Andy Dalton or LeShore. No way those hold up, and the guys with great depth are already taking offers.

 

How do you feel about your keepers? What is the list of other teams' list? Why in the world would someone throw LeSean McCoy back into the pool, and why isn't someone offering that guy a 3rd rounder for McCoy? Why aren't you???

 

Back to your original question. Your best bet is to mock out the picks using an ADP list.

 

5th = Forte

his 16th = Denarius Moore or Sam Bradford

 

10th = CJ2k

your 7th = Greg Jennings or Tony Romo

 

The 2nd rounders don't change the meat of the trade much, but it's yet another bump to give the guy.

 

To answer your question, if you offered me that trade I would take it.

[BA Baracus]

Thanks for that response. The reason rice goes back is that he is no longer eligible to keep. We can keep a guy one round higher than we drafted him the first year. The second year is a first round draft pick and thats the last time u can keep him.

 

McCoy will go back because that guy has much better value with other keepers like Martin, because he can keep them later. The list of anticipated keepers is based on my evaluation of current rosters and the tendencies of each manager. I will be keeping Peyton in the 5th, but I have no viable RB keepers.

 

I guess the real gist of my question, which really doesnt have a single answer, is how much more valuable are shady and forte than guys like cj and mjd? With the sheer unpredictabilty of RBs in general, I am remiss to give up much to improve my RB1. But the other side to this is that RBs are hard to snag off waivers in this very competetive league and in our modified ppr scoring, RBs who catch passes are gold. The best teams tend to be ones that start 3 RBs rather than 3 WRs, generally speaking.

 

Thanks again for the discussion. Its good to hear how others would look at the situation.

[BA Baracus]

I also forgot to mention that the 5th round is the latest round in which anybody can be kept.