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Guys to avoid in your drafts...


euphy
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I dont believe in Reggie enough to draft him in the third round, not a chance.

 

And as far as McCoy, perhaps I was a tad harsh there. He will probably be a first round choice, depending on where the elite QBs go.

 

I think Rodgers Brady Brees will go in the first round in my leagues which will open up a few more good RBs for the rest of us.

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I simply don't get the McCoy un-love. :blink: Chip Kelly's offense suits him to a tee ... sure. Bryce Brown will see snaps but that offesnse is going to purr like a kitten and McCoy will be the main beneficiary.

 

The guy had a concussion last year. NFL players get concussions. It doesn't mean they're Jahvid Best, who had a long history of them dating back to college. Comparing McCoy to Best is hogwash.

 

McCoy should be one of the top 3-4 picks in any redraft league.

 

 

I don't have any un-love for Shady - but I'll try to explain my hesitation to put him as high as top 4. maybe you can talk me back to the front of the bandwagon. To be clear - I don't think Kelly's system is a gimmick, and I want it and him to succeed, but I wonder if a single season is enough time to get it up and running. The difference in roster size alone seems to be a huge hurdle - i.e. we're not even sure if you had every player buying into his system if there's simply enough bodies to sustain the pace.

 

What Kelly is trying to accomplish is radical and would be tough with an entire roster of team-first guys. Last year the Eagles seemed to have the collective team chemistry of a dumpster fire. Maybe I'll be completely wrong - but I don't know if they have enough disciplined guys who are going to be able to quickly buy into and absorb this new system. There have already been grumblings from Desean Jackson and Vick about wanting a QB declared. Yes it's early, and yes that's pretty minor, but I fear he could end up getting a lot of pushback.

 

Also, I'm not sure if they have a QB who will be able to run the system well. Vick still has athleticism, but I thought a read style offense takes a great amount of patience to make the read and then take exactly what the defense is giving you - I don't think that's Vick's strong suit.

 

In terms of drafting McCoy 3-4: AP, Foster, and Martin are all returning to teams that aren't adopting a new system. They're all going to enjoy continuity in terms of OL play and coaching. They seem much safer to me. It's not close to me taking McCoy over any of them right now.

 

At four he'd definitely be in consideration - but I still think there's meltdown potential in Philadelphia this year. The OL seemed pretty terrible last year - and don't they already have a tackle injured? Whereas the coach who used McCoy during his best year is now in KC with Charles - where the biggest problem that OL has is having too many seemingly good left tackles.

 

I have no doubts that McCoy would've run wild in a Chip Kelly offense at Oregon. I think it would be a lot of fun to watch the Eagles with their athletes successfully bring a fast break offense to the NFL. But I'm not ready to bet a top 4 pick that this system is going to work translate well to the NFL in its first year.

Edited by Grogansghost
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I don't have any un-love for Shady - but I'll try to explain my hesitation to put him as high as top 4. maybe you can talk me back to the front of the bandwagon. To be clear - I don't think Kelly's system is a gimmick, and I want it and him to succeed, but I wonder if a single season is enough time to get it up and running. The difference in roster size alone seems to be a huge hurdle - i.e. we're not even sure if you had every player buying into his system if there's simply enough bodies to sustain the pace.

 

What Kelly is trying to accomplish is radical and would be tough with an entire roster of team-first guys. Last year the Eagles seemed to have the collective team chemistry of a dumpster fire. Maybe I'll be completely wrong - but I don't know if they have enough disciplined guys who are going to be able to quickly buy into and absorb this new system. There have already been grumblings from Desean Jackson and Vick about wanting a QB declared. Yes it's early, and yes that's pretty minor, but I fear he could end up getting a lot of pushback.

 

Also, I'm not sure if they have a QB who will be able to run the system well. Vick still has athleticism, but I thought a read style offense takes a great amount of patience to make the read and then take exactly what the defense is giving you - I don't think that's Vick's strong suit.

 

In terms of drafting McCoy 3-4: AP, Foster, and Martin are all returning to teams that aren't adopting a new system. They're all going to enjoy continuity in terms of OL play and coaching. They seem much safer to me. It's not close to me taking McCoy over any of them right now.

 

At four he'd definitely be in consideration - but I still think there's meltdown potential in Philadelphia this year. The OL seemed pretty terrible last year - and don't they already have a tackle injured? Whereas the coach who used McCoy during his best year is now in KC with Charles - where the biggest problem that OL has is having too many seemingly good left tackles.

 

I have no doubts that McCoy would've run wild in a Chip Kelly offense at Oregon. I think it would be a lot of fun to watch the Eagles with their athletes successfully bring a fast break offense to the NFL. But I'm not ready to bet a top 4 pick that this system is going to work translate well to the NFL in its first year.

 

 

I'm not worried about what that tool DeSean Jackson has to say in June - especially as it relates to how McCoy runs in this offense.

 

Yeah, discord in terms of naming a starting QB (and Vick's perceived issues at running the system) could be a problem, but I see it all working itself out by the time end of July / early August rolls around.

 

I said McCoy should be one of the first 3-4 picks. You're right, AP, Foster and Martin are all solid, top 3-4 picks as well. I have bumped Foster down a bit due to overuse and injury issues. I'd take McCoy over Foster at this point. It's a mild gamble but one that could pay huge dividends.

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I don't have any un-love for Shady - but I'll try to explain my hesitation to put him as high as top 4. maybe you can talk me back to the front of the bandwagon. To be clear - I don't think Kelly's system is a gimmick, and I want it and him to succeed, but I wonder if a single season is enough time to get it up and running. The difference in roster size alone seems to be a huge hurdle - i.e. we're not even sure if you had every player buying into his system if there's simply enough bodies to sustain the pace.

 

What Kelly is trying to accomplish is radical and would be tough with an entire roster of team-first guys. Last year the Eagles seemed to have the collective team chemistry of a dumpster fire. Maybe I'll be completely wrong - but I don't know if they have enough disciplined guys who are going to be able to quickly buy into and absorb this new system. There have already been grumblings from Desean Jackson and Vick about wanting a QB declared. Yes it's early, and yes that's pretty minor, but I fear he could end up getting a lot of pushback.

 

Also, I'm not sure if they have a QB who will be able to run the system well. Vick still has athleticism, but I thought a read style offense takes a great amount of patience to make the read and then take exactly what the defense is giving you - I don't think that's Vick's strong suit.

 

In terms of drafting McCoy 3-4: AP, Foster, and Martin are all returning to teams that aren't adopting a new system. They're all going to enjoy continuity in terms of OL play and coaching. They seem much safer to me. It's not close to me taking McCoy over any of them right now.

 

At four he'd definitely be in consideration - but I still think there's meltdown potential in Philadelphia this year. The OL seemed pretty terrible last year - and don't they already have a tackle injured? Whereas the coach who used McCoy during his best year is now in KC with Charles - where the biggest problem that OL has is having too many seemingly good left tackles.

 

I have no doubts that McCoy would've run wild in a Chip Kelly offense at Oregon. I think it would be a lot of fun to watch the Eagles with their athletes successfully bring a fast break offense to the NFL. But I'm not ready to bet a top 4 pick that this system is going to work translate well to the NFL in its first year.

 

Great post. Of any new coach, what Kelly's trying to do is very different from what someone like Bruce Arians or even Marc Trestman is trying to pull off. Plus, he's a first-time NFL head coach. I'm not saying we're in Steve Spurrier territory but that should at least be on the table.

 

I love McCoy but the risk here is high as you've laid out. He's not a guy I'd avoid necessarily but I'd be hoping for someone else as an RB1. I'd also get nervous about DeSean Jackson (alot) and less so Maclin.

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He's not a guy I'd avoid necessarily but I'd be hoping for someone else as an RB1.

 

 

I agree with this. Love his talent, see the upside, but I'm hoping for someone safer with my RB1 considering the pick that it will probably take to get him - 5'ish?

 

I'll be interested to hear about the reports out of training camp. Right now there seemed to be a lot of accounts of the frenetic pace of practice - and how all of the players are constantly involved - steps that just make sense. I love that he seems to be pushing the envelope on how to make more efficient use of the team's team when most probably assumed that nothing more could be fit in.

 

What isn't clear yet is if they're getting it yet.

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  • 1 month later...

Foster's trending the wrong way which is why he is a mild risk, but let's be serious here... He's the bell cow of a running team that has allowed him to average double digit TDs each of the last 3 years. So it's tough to pass on him in the middle of the first.

 

Still he's gone from 4.8 to 4.4 to 4.0 YPC in successive seasons all while his carries have gone up (had his most carries ever in one season last year - 351). And all this while his activity in the passing game has waned as well (from 600 yds rec each of the previous 2 year to just over 200 yards last year, and his yards per catch dropped 50% last year). Had Foster not gotten a lot of goalline scores, he'd have just been good, not elite, last year. And now he's not participating at camp due to injury, so one has to wonder... I just hope someone else grabs him before me.

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Anyone believe me yet?

 

 

Agree on Foster (not gonna pay the price he will demand, therefore will not be able to get him for what I'd be willing to pay), DMC, and RGIII (reliability).

 

However, I will be targeting both Spiller & Shady...they will be money.

 

And I will add CJ2ypc to the "avoid" list...way too hit or miss, and last year, mostly miss. New O-line or not, not gonna trust it. Single-handedly killed me in one league last year, I shan't be burned again (not by him at least).

 

Another that I haven't decided on yet is MJD. Could be a nice bargain, but am concerned...more so about him coming back from the Lis-Franc injury than I am about the zone blocking scheme. That is a tricky injury to come back from, especially for RB's. DMC was in the same situation last year. A lot of his woes from last year are blamed on the zone blocking scheme, but I have to wonder how much was related to the injury hangover.

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Kerley, maybe, if Geno Smith is the starting QB, but Brown? Not so much.

 

Please pay closer attention in class, instead of gazing out the window and daydreaming.

 

 

Fixed. And the AE did indeed refer to B.Brown as a stud RB (<2 ypc final four games last year)

 

"...if Geno Smith is the starting QB..."

 

^ ^ ^ ^ ^

Not gonna happen. And I can assure you, I haven't enrolled. Teacher needs lessons.

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Um, what exactly did you "fix"? I mean, quote manips are kinda passe, but usually they usually involve changing something from the original post.

 

Bryce Brown is indeed a talented RB, and he will get enough carries to make a dent in McCoy's fantasy value, dropping him easily outside of the top 10. However, he's not going to get enough carries (barring another McCoy injury) to make him worth recommending.

 

And I agree that it's looking more and more like Sanchez will at least start the season as the starting QB, and as such, I can't recommend Kerley as heartily as I would if Smith were starting. With Smith, Kerley's a top 25 WR. With Sanchez, more like top 40.

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- Dez Bryant: Not that I don't like him, I'd just rather have Julio Jones, Andre Johnson or even Roddy White. He seems to play angry and that can lead to injury. Romo favors Witten and I like Terrence Williams as a sleeper.

 

 

 

andre johnson over dez bryant really?

 

1. Ryan Mathews - fragile as a kitten

2. DMC - see Mathews, Ryan

3. Danny Amendola - see above

4. Percy Harvin (obviously he just got hurt)

5. David Wilson - one fumble away from being benched

6. Alfred Morris - shennanigans, law of averages

7. Chris johnson - shonn greene, jackie battle, horrible team and underperformed since contract

8. Lamar Miller - way too much hype, ADP is a little ridiculous. Daniel Thomas will see some goal line work

9. Andre Johnson - lost a step, injury prone, run first team with offense on decline

10. Greg Jennings - got paid, bad QB, injury prone

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andre johnson over dez bryant really?

 

1. Ryan Mathews - fragile as a kitten

2. DMC - see Mathews, Ryan

3. Danny Amendola - see above

4. Percy Harvin (obviously he just got hurt)

5. David Wilson - one fumble away from being benched

6. Alfred Morris - shennanigans, law of averages

7. Chris johnson - shonn greene, jackie battle, horrible team and underperformed since contract

8. Lamar Miller - way too much hype, ADP is a little ridiculous. Daniel Thomas will see some goal line work

9. Andre Johnson - lost a step, injury prone, run first team with offense on decline

10. Greg Jennings - got paid, bad QB, injury prone

 

 

5. David Wilson - one fumble away from being benched

 

He had one fumble last year, that cost him a decent season because his HC is like that. That won't happen the same way again. If he shows consistent fumbling issues, then sure he will be benched. But there's no evidence to suggest that he will have fumbling issues at all, and his biggest threat at RB is gone.

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Running QBs (RGIII, Wilson, Kaep, Vick)

Guys with tread on the tires (Rice, MJD)

Brady, sadly.

Brees, I just have a feeling in these bones.

BJGE

Pead or Richardson on the Rams

The usual glass players (Mathews, Danario, guys of that ilk)

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5. David Wilson - one fumble away from being benched

 

But there's no evidence to suggest that he will have fumbling issues at all, and his biggest threat at RB is gone.

 

 

There's no evidence to suggest he will have fumbling issues--except the SEVEN fumbles he had at Virginia Tech in 2011 alone.

 

His biggest threat at RB is Andre Brown, who will still get all the goalline work, who hasn't lost a fumble in two years, and who averages 5.3 yards per carry to Wilson's 5.0 yards per carry. This despite Wilson gaining 48.3% of his rushing yardage on six breakaway runs of 15 yards or more--he averaged 2.85 yards per carry on his 65 non-breakaway runs. Brown gained 39.2% of his rushing yardage on breakaway runs--but averaged 3.55 yards per carry on non-breakaway runs.

 

Wilson is a scrub; Brown is the Giants' RB to have.

Edited by Axe Elf
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There's no evidence to suggest he will have fumbling issues--except the SEVEN fumbles he had at Virginia Tech in 2011 alone.

 

His biggest threat at RB is Andre Brown, who will still get all the goalline work, who hasn't lost a fumble in two years, and who averages 5.3 yards per carry to Wilson's 5.0 yards per carry. This despite Wilson gaining 48.3% of his rushing yardage on six breakaway runs of 15 yards or more--he averaged 2.85 yards per carry on his 65 non-breakaway runs. Brown gained 39.2% of his rushing yardage on breakaway runs--but averaged 3.55 yards per carry on non-breakaway runs.

 

Wilson is a scrub; Brown is the Giants' RB to have.

 

 

wow. good info here. bold. -i always appreciate sticking your neck out... iv'e done it before.... ill have to leave an apple on your desk. :bow:

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Andrea Brown will be a beast the 4 games he plays. The 12 games that he sits with an injury will show you why Wilson is a steal in the 7th round and the best back on the team.

 

P.S. I think you're late for study hall.

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He missed one season with a torn achilles (2009), but seems to be fully recovered from that. Then last year he broke his leg, which is kind of a freak injury. Other than that, he's missed like two games in his career.

 

I guess anyone can get hurt, but with the load he will probably be carrying in 2013, I guess this is the year we will find out if it's a trend or a fluke. In any case, with an ADP in the late 7th round, he doesn't carry much risk and could pan out nicely for drafters who went WR/WR or picked up Jimmy Graham early.

 

I dunno if Wilson would be a steal in the 7th round or not, but you will never, ever draft him there in any league larger than 6--his 8-team ADP is 5.07 (in a 12 teamer it's 3.09).

Edited by Axe Elf
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He missed one season with a torn achilles (2009), but seems to be fully recovered from that. Then last year he broke his leg, which is kind of a freak injury. Other than that, he's missed like two games in his career.

 

I guess anyone can get hurt, but with the load he will probably be carrying in 2013, I guess this is the year we will find out if it's a trend or a fluke. In any case, with an ADP in the late 7th round, he doesn't carry much risk and could pan out nicely for drafters who went WR/WR or picked up Jimmy Graham early.

 

I dunno if Wilson would be a steal in the 7th round or not, but you will never, ever draft him there in any league larger than 6--his 8-team ADP is 5.07 (in a 12 teamer it's 3.09).

 

 

In 2010 bouncing between the PS and getting waived he managed 2 carries in 3 games and was only active for 4 games. He's been with 5 teams in 5 years.

 

In 2012 he had 73 carries for 385 yards. In his 4 year career he has 384 yards. He's a journeyman, feel good story but he is not a threat to a high pick. Throw in the FACT that he is hurt in odd numbered years.....

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